Investor's Corner
How Tesla’s Semi-truck could disrupt the commercial trucking industry
Tesla is already taking the world by storm with its fleet of consumer electric cars and the company’s push toward fully autonomous self-driving technology. Now, the Silicon Valley-based car maker and technology company has set its sights on the trucking industry, with the introduction of a fully electric semi-truck on the horizon. What will this mean to the trucking industry if Tesla succeeds?
Electric Semi-Trucks
With the official unveiling set for Oct. 26, Tesla fans and industry experts are speculating about the kind of impact its electric semi-truck could have on the commercial trucking industry as a whole.
The idea behind the Tesla Semi, which Elon Musk has affectionately called a “beast”, is to make it less expensive to operate than its gas and diesel counterparts on account of reduced maintenance, fuel, and insurance costs. This could result in operational cost reductions of 70% over existing trucks on the market, according to Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley.
Tesla has also gathered billion of miles of driving data from the Autopilot hardware that’s equipped on its latest Model S and Model X vehicles. Using this vast dataset, Tesla aims to create a detailed 3D map of the world that will increasingly become more detailed as fleet data is collected. This dataset allows Tesla’s Vision and artificial intelligence team to train complex algorithms for its Full Self-Driving technology, which will one day allow Tesla’s fleet of consumer vehicles and its upcoming semi-truck to recognize traffic indicators, identify pedestrians and, overall, operate on near-parity with human decision making, before exceeding it.
ASLO SEE: Tesla Autopilot and artificial intelligence: The unfair advantage
-->Being able to offer this level of automation will be transformative for entire industries, including the commercial trucking segment. Companies that have traditionally built their shipping and logistics models based on human capabilities will be able to better manage their manpower costs, while increasing efficiency at safer levels across the organization through Tesla’s automation. Combined with the fact that a Tesla Semi will emit no tailpipe emissions, in a world where regulations on emission standards are becoming increasingly more strict and manufacturers are pushing to transition toward all-electric fleets, and the industry impact of Tesla’s semi-truck becomes even more clear.
Tesla’s Semi-truck spied ahead of its October 26, 2017 official unveiling event.
Execution
We’re still waiting for exact specifications for Tesla’s Semi like range and hauling capacity, but early reports by Reuters suggests that the electric truck will have a range between 200 and 300 miles. The relatively short range by long-haul trucking standards means that Tesla will likely target regional hauling. Any further than that would require a massive a battery that would be cost prohibitive for most companies looking to incorporate Tesla into its expense model.
Electric trucks might sound like a great innovation, but they aren’t without perils given current technology. First, electric trucks are going to require a new class of technicians to keep them primed and operating efficiently. Yes, Tesla cars are known to operate hundreds of thousands of miles without much trouble, but there’s no way to project how the wear and tear of the long haul will affect these new electric trucks.
Production will be the other big question. Tesla CEO Elon Musk is known to have an optimistic outlook when it comes to delivering his vision to the masses. But keeping to deadlines couldn’t be more important to a consumer and commercial goods industry that’s largely dependent on having a smooth running supply chain. Companies that commit to augmenting its business with a Tesla Semi or looking to transition in full to an all-electric fleet of trucks will certainly have less tolerance for delays than the general Model S, Model X, and Model 3 consumer market. This is especially the case for publicly traded companies.
Tune in on Teslarati as we bring you coverage on all Tesla Semi developments. And be sure to follow us @Teslarati or like us on Facebook to see live behind the scenes coverage from the Tesla Semi event on October 26.
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Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
-->Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
-->It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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