Investor's Corner
How Tesla’s Semi-truck could disrupt the commercial trucking industry
Tesla is already taking the world by storm with its fleet of consumer electric cars and the company’s push toward fully autonomous self-driving technology. Now, the Silicon Valley-based car maker and technology company has set its sights on the trucking industry, with the introduction of a fully electric semi-truck on the horizon. What will this mean to the trucking industry if Tesla succeeds?
Electric Semi-Trucks
With the official unveiling set for Oct. 26, Tesla fans and industry experts are speculating about the kind of impact its electric semi-truck could have on the commercial trucking industry as a whole.
The idea behind the Tesla Semi, which Elon Musk has affectionately called a “beast”, is to make it less expensive to operate than its gas and diesel counterparts on account of reduced maintenance, fuel, and insurance costs. This could result in operational cost reductions of 70% over existing trucks on the market, according to Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley.
Tesla has also gathered billion of miles of driving data from the Autopilot hardware that’s equipped on its latest Model S and Model X vehicles. Using this vast dataset, Tesla aims to create a detailed 3D map of the world that will increasingly become more detailed as fleet data is collected. This dataset allows Tesla’s Vision and artificial intelligence team to train complex algorithms for its Full Self-Driving technology, which will one day allow Tesla’s fleet of consumer vehicles and its upcoming semi-truck to recognize traffic indicators, identify pedestrians and, overall, operate on near-parity with human decision making, before exceeding it.
ASLO SEE: Tesla Autopilot and artificial intelligence: The unfair advantage
Being able to offer this level of automation will be transformative for entire industries, including the commercial trucking segment. Companies that have traditionally built their shipping and logistics models based on human capabilities will be able to better manage their manpower costs, while increasing efficiency at safer levels across the organization through Tesla’s automation. Combined with the fact that a Tesla Semi will emit no tailpipe emissions, in a world where regulations on emission standards are becoming increasingly more strict and manufacturers are pushing to transition toward all-electric fleets, and the industry impact of Tesla’s semi-truck becomes even more clear.
Tesla’s Semi-truck spied ahead of its October 26, 2017 official unveiling event.
Execution
We’re still waiting for exact specifications for Tesla’s Semi like range and hauling capacity, but early reports by Reuters suggests that the electric truck will have a range between 200 and 300 miles. The relatively short range by long-haul trucking standards means that Tesla will likely target regional hauling. Any further than that would require a massive a battery that would be cost prohibitive for most companies looking to incorporate Tesla into its expense model.
Electric trucks might sound like a great innovation, but they aren’t without perils given current technology. First, electric trucks are going to require a new class of technicians to keep them primed and operating efficiently. Yes, Tesla cars are known to operate hundreds of thousands of miles without much trouble, but there’s no way to project how the wear and tear of the long haul will affect these new electric trucks.
Production will be the other big question. Tesla CEO Elon Musk is known to have an optimistic outlook when it comes to delivering his vision to the masses. But keeping to deadlines couldn’t be more important to a consumer and commercial goods industry that’s largely dependent on having a smooth running supply chain. Companies that commit to augmenting its business with a Tesla Semi or looking to transition in full to an all-electric fleet of trucks will certainly have less tolerance for delays than the general Model S, Model X, and Model 3 consumer market. This is especially the case for publicly traded companies.
Tune in on Teslarati as we bring you coverage on all Tesla Semi developments. And be sure to follow us @Teslarati or like us on Facebook to see live behind the scenes coverage from the Tesla Semi event on October 26.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Investor's Corner
Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed
The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars
Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.
Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.
TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target
TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects.
Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
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