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How Much Battery Will The Tesla Model 3 Need?

The Tesla Model III will be 20% smaller than the Model S, have 200 miles of range and cost $35,000. How big a battery will it need to meet those goals?

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Tesla sales projections by Seeking Alpha

The only thing we know for sure about the upcoming Tesla Model III is that it will have at least 200 miles of range because that’s the target Elon Musk has announced. He may underperform when it comes to bringing products to market on time, but when they get there, they meet or exceed every design parameter.

Musk has also announced the Model III will be about 20% smaller than the Model S, which suggests it will weigh somewhat less. How much less is open to debate, as getting the cost down to an affordable $35,000 selling price will probably mean less use of expensive alloys and more use of good old fashioned steel. Those price concerns imply a smaller battery than either of the ones currently available in the Model S.

That question then becomes, how small a battery will give the Model III the range it needs at the price promised? The answer, according to Siddharth Dalal at Seeking Alpha, is somewhere between 50 kWh and 60 kWh. Keep in mind, the company says there will be several versions of the Model III — eventually. One will likely be a sedan but an SUV or crossover is also definitely in the works. Elon Musk says there may be various performance versions of the car from mild to wild, just as there are for the Model S.

Musk tells us the smaller motor from the 70D will probably power the base version of the Model III. “That smaller drive unit in many ways is a precursor for the Model 3. Because it represents a significant improvement in cost, and in steady state power, and a number of other factors. It’s a second generation motor, essentially, and that’s a good pathfinder for Model 3 on the powertrain side.”

Could a 50 kWh battery and a single small electric motor give the Model III the power and range it will need to be competitive? Quite possibly. The Model III will not go into full production until 2018. The GigaFactory will be in full operation by then, so the cost of batteries should be on the decline as a result. Another question is whether the Model S battery pack will fit in the Model III. If so, a P70D could do for the Model III what the P85D did for the Model S.

If Tesla is really going to be selling 500,000 cars by 2020, a lot of them will have to be Model III’s and most of those will need to be affordable, entry level cars for mainstream buyers. They will be the Civics and Corollas of the Tesla line — efficient, affordable, and reliable family transportation. Of course, if the product mix is  spiced up a bit by the occasional P70D SUV, that would be alright, too.

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Chart via Seeking Alpha.

 

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Tesla Cybercab gets initial tie-in to localized, in-house cathode plant

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has taken another concrete step toward owning its battery supply chain, and it’s doing so with what is perhaps the most important vehicle in its short-but-storied history.

On September 23, Tesla announced that it has officially built the first Cybercab with cathode material produced in-house at the company’s first cathode plant in the U.S., and the first in the U.S. overall.

Active cathode material is the most expensive piece of a lithium-ion battery cell, and it often accounts for more than a third of cell cost. For years, the industry sourced a majority of it from Asia, but Tesla’s decision to make it in the United States bodes well for the Cybercab project. This is the latest chapter in Tesla’s vertical integration strategy, which began in public at Battery Day in 2020.

At the Battery Day Event, Elon Musk said the company would build a North American cathode plant and overhaul the process to cut costs and waste, while also making some of the most powerful and long-lasting cells in the industry.

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The Austin facility took years to appear. Tesla filed permits for “Project Cathode” in 2022 on land near Giga Texas. By mid-2022, the building frame was up and Tesla later invested hundreds of millions of dollars as part of a larger expansion of the Giga Texas plant. The company stated it was operating the first large-scale cathode production facility in North America to supplement 4680 cell production.

One month later, that material reached a finished Cybercab.

The timing of this breakthrough is monumental for the Cybercab program. As Tesla officially launched the first Cybercab rides to the public earlier this month, production of the ride-hailing-geared vehicle is moving forward on the planned S-curve that CEO Elon Musk told everyone to expect.

Nevertheless, packs of Cybercab units have been spotted throughout the United States, in an effort to potentially activate the fleet as soon as the company gains regulatory approval in various geographic areas.

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On top of that, Tesla owning the cathode step and pairing it with its own in-house lithium from the Gulf Coast refinery shortens the supply chain that once stretched thousands of miles and subjects every pack to fewer external price shocks and geopolitical risks.

Tesla is not yet independent of all of its foreign suppliers, as some precursor metals come from mines and chemical plants. But the first in-house cathode Cybercab shows the company is closing the most expensive and most concentrated gap in its battery production efforts. For a vehicle like Cybercab to operate at a high utilization within the Robotaxi network, that control over cost is so crucial.

It is arguably as important as the software that drives it.

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Tesla leaks Semi customers ahead of handover event

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is set to inaugurate its dedicated Semi factory in Sparks, Nevada, this evening, but drone footage has already started to show who is expected on the handover stage.

Zanegler, a drone operator who regularly documents Tesla Semi operations in Nevada, filmed a row of new-generation Semi units parked outside of the plant with customer branding applied. The liveries visible in the video include companies like PepsiCo, U.S. Foods, Einride, DHL, WattEV, and others that have committed to utilizing Tesla’s Class 8 electric truck in their fleets.

Several of those company names already sit within Tesla’s public ordering book, including PepsiCo, which has been the program’s primary anchor customer since the first Semi deliveries in December 2022. PepsiCo now runs dozens of Tesla Semi units in daily service, with drivers completing regional routes.

Einride placed a 500-unit order in August, which was, at the time, the largest single Semi commitment. First deployments of their Semi units are planned for this month and will eventually span across California, Texas, New Jersey, Illinois, and Georgia. Meanwhile, IMC Logistics announced a 50-truck California order this week.

Tesla Semi lands the biggest electric truck deal in U.S. history

Other names, like LTS, OK Produce, and HMD, have not been widely confirmed as firm buyers, but their presence on the lot is perhaps the clearest signal that Tesla intends to expand on that list this evening at the event.

Tesla first unveiled the Semi back in 2017 with a 2019 production target.

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Limited pilot builds reached PepsiCo in late 2022, and high-volume production began at the new 1.7-million-square-foot plant that sits logically positioned next to Tesla’s Gigafactory Nevada. Tesla Semi program director Dan Priestley has said that Tesla expects to build “many thousands” of Semi units this year, but as with every Tesla release, there have been set expectations of an S-curve ramp.

Outside estimates still put 2026 deliveries in the 5,000-to-15,000 range, but it will ultimately depend on Tesla’s readiness to put those units out, as well as how smoothly production is moving internally.

Tesla’s Semi Rollout event is set to start tonight at the Sparks factory, and it will be livestreamed on X starting at 6 p.m. PDT / 9 p.m. ET.

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Tesla App now shows you what your Supercharger will look like upon arrival

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Credit: Tesla

The Tesla App is now giving owners a better indication of what to expect when visiting a Supercharger site, as it is now sharing Site Maps in the app itself, making the feature no longer exclusively available in the car.

Tesla owners can now preview a Supercharger’s layout and live stall status from their phone thanks to the App’s new software version, v4.61.0. Zooming into a supported Supercharger on the charging map now switches the familiar street view into a site-specific map that shows stall positions, occupied bays, out-of-service posts, and a live count of open Superchargers.

It will even show you which specific Tesla model is charging at each occupied stall.

This is the same view drivers first saw inside the car with the 2025 Holiday Update, which started as a pilot for Tesla in California and Texas. Those early maps showed layout, nearby amenities, and the status of each operational stall. The feature has spread to most Superchargers in the U.S., but now Tesla wants the feature available through the Smartphone App, which is now rolling out to owners.

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The in-vehicle screen maps remain a richer 3D canvas and originally required AMD Ryzen infotainment hardware, which left many Intel-based Model 3 and Model Y owners without the view. The app version removes that hardware barrier, so any owner can now get a preview of their upcoming Supercharger stop on their phone.

Anyone with the updated version of the app can open a Site Map on their phone. The feature has provided some additional peace of mind to anxious travelers and those who might be looking for a place that is less congested for faster charging speeds. It is a meaningful addition to many owners, especially for trips to unfamiliar locations.

You can now pick a Supercharger location that might be more aligned with what you are looking for or need: you can pick a site based on what stalls are open, where ADA stalls sit, how you will pull in, and more, instead of circling a crowded lot after arriving. Owners of older cars now have access to the feature without having to purchase a new vehicle altogether.

Site Mpas will not reserve a stall, nor will it change how Fast Charging works. Tesla does something simpler and more useful by giving owners a dedicated preview of the Supercharger they’re about to charge, turning an unknown parking lot into a place that may seem more familiar thanks to the preview.

Interested in ordering a Tesla? Use my referral code for three free months of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) here.

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