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NASA is training SpaceX's first Crew Dragon astronauts for a much longer mission in space

Crew Dragon completes one of its last tests before its astronaut launch debut, February 2020. (SpaceX)

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NASA has revealed that the astronauts assigned to SpaceX’s Crew Dragon astronaut launch debut are training for a space station mission many times longer than initially planned.

Scheduled to deliver two NASA astronauts to and from the International Space Station (ISS) no earlier than (NET) late-April or May 2020, Crew Dragon’s Demo-2 mission will be the first crewed launch in SpaceX’s 18-year history. As previously noted on Teslarati (and by NASA itself, briefly), Demo-2 will also mark the first time in history that a privately-built spacecraft attempts to launch humans into orbit.

Still, NASA has funded the development of Crew Dragon (and competitor Boeing’s Starliner) not to achieve firsts but to restore the United States’ ability to launch its own astronauts to the ISS. Along those lines, both Crew Dragon (Demo-2) and Starliner’s (CFT) astronaut test flights were nominally designed to last about a week or two before returning NASA’s astronauts to Earth – a full end-to-end test for both extraordinarily complex vehicles. Two weeks, however, is simply not long enough for those astronauts to practically serve as full members of space station crew, something the ISS generally requires. In response, NASA has been seriously considering extending Boeing’s crewed test flight and has just recently suggested that SpaceX’s own Demo-2 test flight will be similarly upgraded.

About a month ago, SpaceX and NASA talked openly about the possibility of a longer-duration Crew Dragon astronaut launch debut for the first time, potentially extending the amount of time those astronauts are able to spend at the space station from about one week up to 1.5-3 months. This would allow Crew Dragon’s Demo-2 NASA astronauts – Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley – to serve as full members of the ISS crew, expanding the US presence from one to three astronauts.

Ars Technica’s Eric Berger offered some additional details about what exactly NASA might task Behnken and Hurley with on an extended flight earlier this month. Most importantly, the space agency wants the former astronaut – a Space Shuttle and extra-vehicular activity (EVA) veteran – to be (re)trained for spacewalks, allowing him to support an ever-growing to-do list of critical space station repairs and upgrades.

The International Space Station is pictured in October 2018 during a crewed Soyuz fly-around. (NASA/Roscosmos)

In effect, extending Crew Dragon’s astronaut flight test will make it almost identical to an “operational” flight where Crew Dragon ferries astronauts to the space station, docks for about six months, and finally returns the same astronauts to Earth at the end of its mission. More importantly, though, NASA’s decision to extend Commercial Crew Program (CCP) test flights – kickstarted with Boeing’s beleaguered Starliner spacecraft – is motivated by a desire to prevent the United States’ presence on the space station from dwindling or even regressing to zero in the near future.

Triggered by years of SpaceX and Boeing delays, NASA will now likely have to purchase more seats on Russian Soyuz launches if it wishes to maintain an full, uninterrupted presence on ISS for the next 12-24 months. After suffering numerous deeply concerning software failures on its first and only orbital launch, Boeing’s Starliner is unlikely to be ready to launch crew anytime soon. At the same time, although SpaceX is closer to its astronaut launch debut than ever before, it’s highly unlikely that Crew Dragon can singlehandedly support a full ISS complement of three NASA astronauts while Starliner works out its issues.

Boeing’s Starliner and SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft stand vertical at their respective launch pads in December 2019 and January 2020. Crew Dragon has now performed two successful full-up launches to Starliner’s lone partial failure. (Richard Angle)

As such, NASA is looking everywhere it can to squeeze a bit more on-orbit time out of existing astronaut missions scheduled in the next year or so, and both Starliner and Crew Dragon’s test flights – barring showstoppers – are excellent opportunities. With NASA Johnson Space Center’s confirmation that both Behnken and Hurley are already deep into the extra training needed for an extended flight, chances are good that both astronauts will be ready for a one- or several-month mission by the time that NASA and SpaceX are ready and willing to launch.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk updates the SpaceX timeline for Mars

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Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX
Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX

Elon Musk has updated his timeline for when humans will walk on Mars and for when ships will simply get there.

The objective of getting to Mars has been one of Musk’s biggest goals since becoming a serial entrepreneur and realizing that time on Earth is limited. Musk has said several times he hopes to die on Mars, and not by impact.

Musk now believes that people will be on Mars in “roughly 5 to 7 years.” He said that a Mars lander will get there “a few years sooner.”

The response from Musk comes after NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said that SpaceX’s biggest priority is the Moon and not Mars. Because of this, Isaacman conceded that he believes nuclear power and propulsion investments will provide “potentially the pathway with the fewest miracles required to put four people on Mars in the next 10 to 15 years.”

Of course, this is what NASA can do through taxpayer funding and nuclear investments, he added.

Musk’s grand ambitions are much more optimistic than most, and it is certainly a double-edged sword. This is not the first time timelines for Mars have been somewhat lofty, especially to those normal thinkers like you and me, not super geniuses like Musk.

SpaceX Board has set a Mars bonus for Elon Musk

In fact, the SpaceX and Tesla frontman has said on at least a dozen occasions that we could be on Mars in the coming years. Musk said 2020 would be the big year as early as 2009. In 2020, he was “highly confident” of a landing in 2026, and had even said 2024 in a best-case scenario.

The point is, the range has varied, and it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll get there. This latest adjustment to the timeline is typical of Musk, and while the Moon has seemingly taken priority over Mars, it is still worth mentioning that the ultimate goal is to make life multiplanetary, and it starts potentially with the Red Planet.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX gets an absolutely crazy price target after rough IPO

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) got an absolutely crazy price target rating from Raymond James after the company experienced a tough first few weeks following its Initial Public Offering (IPO).

Despite the tumultuous start, SpaceX has plenty of believers, and the company’s massively successful Starship launch last Friday, its 13th test flight of the massive rocket, went so smoothly that Raymond James analysts pushed its price target on the company to roughly 7 times its current trading level.

SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before

The firm officially put a “Strong Buy” rating and an $800 price target on the stock. It currently trades at around $113. Its all-time high is $225.64, reaching this trading level shortly after shares first went public.

Raymond James’ price target is tied to the firm’s confidence after Starship’s 13th test flight. Analysts at the firm said it was an incremental step that reduces engineering risks, citing the widely successful heat shield test that CEO Elon Musk recently detailed, the smooth deployment of Starlink V3 satellites, and a successful in-space engine relight.

SpaceX also managed to see Starship splash down safely in the Indian Ocean, while the Super Heavy Booster fell down to the Gulf of America with no incidents.

It is interesting to see these launches have such a tremendous impact on the stock and what investors think of it. After SpaceX initially delayed the Starship launch last week, shares fell tremendously. Most probably did not realize that the stand-down is a standard practice, especially if everything is not perfect.

The mission was initially aborted due to an issue with Raptor engines. This was resolved, and Starship launched last Friday after another delay on Thursday, which was caused by weather.

Now that analysts have seen what SpaceX launches are capable of and how impressive the feat is, firms are adjusting their price targets accordingly, making it known that they have high expectations for the space exploration company.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk responds to Volvo’s latest LiDAR decision

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has responded to reports that Volvo is officially discontinuing the LiDAR sensor on two of its cars.

Volvo announced that it would officially scrap LiDAR systems on its EX90 and ES90 vehicles in various markets. In Norway, owners will get a €1,800 compensation for features that will never arrive due to this decision. There will be no option to remove the unit from vehicles, either.

The issue stems from Volvo’s supplier, Luminar, and its bankruptcy filing. Luminar will no longer be able to supply LiDAR units to Volvo for the EX90 and ES90, effectively axing any use the unit has on vehicles. Volvo will phase out the data collection processes via the LiDAR system, and it will not be utilized whatsoever.

Musk saw the story on X and responded, stating:

“I did try to warn them. Humans drive using neural nets and optical sensors. Same is true for robot cars.”

Musk has been publicly vocal about his disdain for LiDAR systems, once calling them “a fool’s errand,” as he has consistently kept the outlook that they are not needed for effective self-driving.

The typical example used as evidence for this by Musk is humans themselves: made with only eyes and memories, humans are capable of navigating a car by using what they can see and what they’ve personally experienced on the road.

Elon Musk argues lidar and radar make self driving cars more dangerous

“Same is true for robot cars,” Musk says, as Teslas have eight exterior cameras that help see everything surrounding the vehicle, and a neural network that analyzes behavior and tendencies with every mile driven.

Tesla is a vision-only self-driving company that ditched sensors and radar several years ago in favor of cameras. Behind this effort, the company has established a reputation for having one of the most robust self-driving platforms in the world.

Musk’s big bet with Tesla on its self-driving program’s strategy has widely paid off. Other companies continue to utilize things like LiDAR, radar, and sensors for effective self-driving, but Tesla has shown that there is more than one way to give consumers a strong and accurate driver assistance suite.

The real question is: who will be the first company to take Musk’s advice and attempt a self-driving platform based on cameras only, or even license FSD for themselves?

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