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NASA & US Air Force consider SpaceX’s reusable rockets for future missions
Three of SpaceX’s largest and most important customers have in some way expressed significant interest in flying missions aboard recovered SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets. Even with respect to the three commercial reuses SpaceX has already accomplished this year, the combined interest of NASA, the US Air Force, and Iridium could well mark a major phase change in the space industry.
NASA
According to NASASpaceflight.com, NASA has been exploring reused Falcon 9 hardware for CRS-13, a cargo Dragon mission scheduled for no earlier than December 4th. If NASA finalizes approvals in time, CRS-13 could see SpaceX reuse both the Falcon 9 first stage and the Dragon spacecraft atop it, in many ways reminiscent of SpaceX’s ultimate goal of full reusability. Furthermore, for CRS-13, NASA is focused on launching aboard the same Falcon 9 that flew CRS-11 just four months ago, a pleasant synergy that would figuratively suggest the development of a fleet ownership-type attitude. NASA is by far SpaceX’s largest customer and has been an invaluable source of support and expertise for the company for nearly all of its 15 years of operations.
Falcon 9 1031 prepped and ready for its second flight and SpaceX’s third commercial reuse. (Tom Cross/Teslarati)
US Air Force
The week initially began with a Bloomberg interview of US Space Command head General Jay Ramond that can be best described as a resounding affirmation of the Air Force’s interest in reused SpaceX rockets. Never one for subtlety, Gen. Raymond was quoted saying that the USAF would be “absolutely foolish” and “dumb” to not consider flying on reused rockets. While reused hardware will need to be certified separately for Air Force missions, the Raymond suggested that the process of certifying the reusable Falcon 9 had already begun, although he was unable to provide a an estimate for when it might be completed. Ultimately, although the Air Force is laser-focused on reliability over all other traits, Raymond praised SpaceX for its role in introducing price-shrinking competition to the launch market and reiterated his “[complete] commitment to…reused rocket[s].”
Iridium Communications
Up next on the docket is Iridium, a satellite communications provider that contracted with SpaceX for the eight missions required to launch its next generation Iridium NEXT constellation. While CEO Matt Desch has openly expressed interest in reuse over the last year and a half, he remained skeptical and maintained that he was effectively waiting for a more amicable discount on reused vehicles before biting the bullet. SpaceX must have made an offer that couldn’t be refused, as Iridium Communications announced in a press release that the NEXT-4 and NEXT-5 missions will both fly atop reused Falcon 9 first stages, beginning with NEXT-4 on December 22nd.
Of crucial importance, Iridium also noted that the premiums paid to their launch insurers would not increase as a result of the adoption of reused hardware. While the change boosters means that the newly-completed Landing Zone at Vandenberg will have to wait until 2018 to host a Falcon 9 recovery, that is a small consolation to pay for yet another major customer warming up to SpaceX’s reusability program.
Falcon 9 1041 the night before its predawn liftoff for the Iridium NEXT-3 mission. (SpaceX)
Encore: Spacecom
Finally, in an unexpected and encouraging turn of events, Israeli communications satellite operator Spacecom announced on Wednesday that they had contracted with SpaceX for the 2019 and 2020 launches of the Amos-17 and Amos-8 communications satellites.
In early-September 2016, a Falcon 9 preparing to conduct a static fire suffered a catastrophic failure that destroyed vehicle, Spacecom’s Amos-6 payload, and extensively damaged Launch Complex 40. With SpaceX effectively at fault for the loss, they were contractually obligated to either return Spacecom’s $50m deposit or provide a second launch at no additional cost. Spacecom sided with the latter and further tripled down on SpaceX with a second launch order in 2020 and the decision to fly Amos-17 on a reused Falcon 9.
While one could dismiss the choice to exploit free reflight as a move begrudgingly forced by financial pragmatism, Spacecom’s Amos-8 launch order and decision to fly on reused hardware is undeniable evidence that the two companies have preserved their relationship in spite of the Amos-6 trials and tribulations.
Whoa. Spacecom not only going back to #SpaceX F9 for free re-flight of AMOS-6, but it looks like it will be on a flight-proven F9 to boot!
— Chris G (@ChrisG_SpX) October 18, 2017
All said and done, the fact that all four of these groundbreaking announcements occurred over the course of a handful of days is incredible. If the trope could ever be said to be applicable, it is hard to deny that SpaceX is likely on aerospace’s Cloud 9 this week.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Elon Musk recently reiterated one of the most ambitious forecasts for Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, stating it could become the first real-world example of a Von Neumann machine. He also noted once more that Optimus would be Tesla’s biggest product.
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Optimus as a von Neumann machine
In response to a post on X that pondered on sci-fi timelines becoming real, Musk wrote that “Optimus will be the first Von Neumann machine, capable of building civilization by itself on any viable planet.” In a separate post, Musk wrote that Optimus will be Tesla’s “biggest product ever,” a phrase he has used in the past to describe the humanoid robot’s importance to the electric vehicle maker.
A Von Neumann machine is a class of theoretical self-replicating systems originally proposed in the mid-20th century by the mathematician John von Neumann. In his concept, von Neumann described machines that could travel to other worlds, use local materials to create copies of themselves, and carry out large-scale tasks without outside intervention.
Elon Musk’s broader plans
Considering Musk’s comments, it appears that Optimus would eventually be capable of performing complex work autonomously in environments beyond Earth. If Optimus could achieve such a feat, it could very well unlock humanity’s capability to explore locations beyond Earth. The idea of space exploration becomes more than feasible.
Elon Musk has discussed space-based AI compute, large-scale robotic production, and the role of SpaceX’s Starship in transporting hardware and materials to other planets. While Musk did not detail how Optimus would fit with SpaceX’s exploration activities, his Von Neumann machine comments suggest he is looking at Tesla’s robotics as part of a potential interplanetary ecosystem.
News
Tesla China January wholesale sales rise 9% year-on-year
Tesla reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 China-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association.
Tesla China reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 Giga Shanghai-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). The figure includes both domestic sales and exports from Gigafactory Shanghai.
The total represented a 9.32% increase from January last year but a 28.86% decline from December’s 97,171 units.
China EV market trends
The CPCA estimated that China’s passenger new energy vehicle wholesale volume reached about 900,000 units in January, up 1% year-on-year but down 42% from December. Demand has been pressured by the start-of-year slow season, a 5% additional purchase tax cost, and uncertainty around the transition of vehicle trade-in subsidies, as noted in a report from CNEV Post.
Market leader BYD sold 210,051 NEVs in January, down 30.11% year-on-year and 50.04% month-on-month, as per data released on February 1. Tesla China’s year-over-year growth then is quite interesting, as the company’s vehicles seem to be selling very well despite headwinds in the market.
Tesla China’s strategies
To counter weaker seasonal demand, Tesla China launched a low-interest financing program on January 6, offering up to seven-year terms on select produced vehicles. The move marked the first time an automaker offered financing of that length in the Chinese market.
Several rivals, including Xiaomi, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO, later introduced similar incentives. Tesla China then further increased promotions on January 26 by reinstating insurance subsidies for the Model 3 sedan. The CPCA is expected to release Tesla’s China retail sales and export breakdown later this month.
News
Tesla’s Apple CarPlay ambitions are not dead, they’re still in the works
For what it’s worth, as a Tesla owner, I don’t particularly see the need for CarPlay, as I have found the in-car system that the company has developed to be superior. However, many people are in love with CarPlay simply because, when it’s in a car that is capable, it is really great.
Tesla’s Apple CarPlay ambitions appeared to be dead in the water after a large amount of speculation late last year that the company would add the user interface seemed to cool down after several weeks of reports.
However, it appears that CarPlay might make its way to Tesla vehicles after all, as a recent report seems to indicate that it is still being worked on by software teams for the company.
The real question is whether it is truly needed or if it is just a want by so many owners that Tesla is listening and deciding to proceed with its development.
Back in November, Bloomberg reported that Tesla was in the process of testing Apple CarPlay within its vehicles, which was a major development considering the company had resisted adopting UIs outside of its own for many years.
Nearly one-third of car buyers considered the lack of CarPlay as a deal-breaker when buying their cars, a study from McKinsey & Co. outlined. This could be a driving decision in Tesla’s inability to abandon the development of CarPlay in its vehicles, especially as it lost a major advantage that appealed to consumers last year: the $7,500 EV tax credit.
Tesla owners propose interesting theory about Apple CarPlay and EV tax credit
Although we saw little to no movement on it since the November speculation, Tesla is now reportedly in the process of still developing the user interface. Mark Gurman, a Bloomberg writer with a weekly newsletter, stated that CarPlay is “still in the works” at Tesla and that more concrete information will be available “soon” regarding its development.
While Tesla already has a very capable and widely accepted user interface, CarPlay would still be an advantage, considering many people have used it in their vehicles for years. Just like smartphones, many people get comfortable with an operating system or style and are resistant to using a new one. This could be a big reason for Tesla attempting to get it in their own cars.
Tesla gets updated “Apple CarPlay” hack that can work on new models
For what it’s worth, as a Tesla owner, I don’t particularly see the need for CarPlay, as I have found the in-car system that the company has developed to be superior. However, many people are in love with CarPlay simply because, when it’s in a car that is capable, it is really great.
It holds one distinct advantage over Tesla’s UI in my opinion, and that’s the ability to read and respond to text messages, which is something that is available within a Tesla, but is not as user-friendly.
With that being said, I would still give CarPlay a shot in my Tesla. I didn’t particularly enjoy it in my Bronco Sport, but that was because Ford’s software was a bit laggy with it. If it were as smooth as Tesla’s UI, which I think it would be, it could be a really great addition to the vehicle.
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
Tesla China January wholesale sales rise 9% year-on-year
