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Recap: Tesla first-quarter results; Model X on its way

Tesla first quarter earnings beat the estimates of stock analysts, who expected a loss of 50 cents a share. The actual loss was only 36 cents a share.

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Tesla first-quarter results topped analysts expectations sending shares into positive territory during after-hours trading. The company announced a first-quarter loss of $45 million on revenue of $1.1 billion, which amounts to 36 cents a share on an adjusted basis. That compares to a loss of $50 million, or 40 cents a share, in the first quarter of 2014. Analysts had told investors to expect a loss of 50 cents a share.

On an unadjusted basis, the loss was $1.22 per share. Tesla said the loss includes $22 million, or 17 cents a share, in unrealized losses from foreign currency holdings due to the strong dollar.

The company is experiencing “growing” demand for its Model S electric sedan, according to a report in USA Today. Tesla delivered 10,045 cars during the first quarter and predicted it would produce another 12,500 cars in the second quarter.

The company assured analysts on Wednesday that it was on pace to deliver the expected 55,000 units this year. That number includes sales of both the Model S sedan and the upcoming Model X crossover which is said to begin deliveries starting in the third quarter.

Tesla shares closed at $230.43, down $2.52 or 1.08%, before the earnings report but rose 2.7% in after-hours trading to $236.70. In an exclusive interview with Teslarati, business strategist and Tesla owner Daniel Sparks (@DanielSparks) told us:

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“Overall, the quarter was great. The key takeaway was Tesla’s ability to simultaneously maintain so many future growth plans, e.g. maintaining guidance for 55,000 vehicle deliveries in 2015 (up 74% from 2014 deliveries), planning to begin battery cell and pack production in the Gigafactory (which is currently under construction) by next year, expecting to let customers configure Model X by July, and planning to show off the Model 3 (for the first time) in March, 2016.

As shortsighted market watchers focus on near-term financial figures, long-term buy-and-hold Tesla investors know the company is a forward-looking growth story. And when viewed at the 10,000-foot level, Tesla is grade A.”

Perhaps the best news for stockholders was the announcement on April 30 that Tesla will begin selling its Powerwall batteries for residential use, together with its larger PowerPack batteries for commercial and grid scale energy storage, later this year.

SolarCity-Powerwall

Tesla’s Powerwall Home Battery will allow households to to go off the grid by charging via photovoltaic solar panels from SolarCity. Source: SolarCity

Elon Musk told analysts during the conference call that demand for the stationary batteries has been so “crazy” that the company is considering expanding its Gigafactory outside Reno to meet the demand. He said the company already has 38,000 reservations for the home wall unit and 2,500 from large industrial companies or utilities.

“The sheer volume of demand here is staggering,” said Musk. In fact, the Gigafactory could be kept completely busy just building stationary use batteries, the demand is so great.

ALSO SEE >>> Cost benefit analysis of owning the Tesla Powerwall.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla investors may be in for a big surprise

All signs point toward a strong quarter for Tesla in terms of deliveries. Investors could be in for a surprise.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla investors have plenty of things to be ecstatic about, considering the company’s confidence in autonomy, AI, robotics, cars, and energy. However, many of them may be in for a big surprise as the end of the $7,500 EV tax credit nears. On September 30, it will be gone for good.

This has put some skepticism in the minds of some investors: the lack of a $7,500 discount for buying a clean energy vehicle may deter many people from affording Tesla’s industry-leading EVs.

Tesla warns consumers of huge, time-sensitive change coming soon

The focus on quarterly deliveries, while potentially waning in terms of importance to the future, is still a big indicator of demand, at least as of now. Of course, there are other factors, most of them economic.

The big push to make the most of the final quarter of the EV tax credit is evident, as Tesla is reminding consumers on social media platforms and through email communications that the $7,500 discount will not be here forever. It will be gone sooner rather than later.

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It appears the push to maximize sales this quarter before having to assess how much they will be impacted by the tax credit’s removal is working.

Delivery Wait Time Increases

Wait times for Tesla vehicles are increasing due to what appears to be increased demand for the company’s vehicles. Recently, Model Y delivery wait times were increased from 1-3 weeks to 4-6 weeks.

This puts extra pressure on consumers to pull the trigger on an order, as delivery must be completed by the cutoff date of September 30.

Delivery wait times may have gone up due to an increase in demand as consumers push to make a purchase before losing that $7,500 discount.

More People are Ordering

A post on X by notable Tesla influencer Sawyer Merritt anecdotally shows he has been receiving more DMs than normal from people stating that they’re ordering vehicles before the end of the tax credit:

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It’s not necessarily a confirmation of more orders, but it could be an indication that things are certainly looking that way.

Why Investors Could Be Surprised

Tesla investors could see some positive movement in stock price following the release of the Q3 delivery report, especially if all signs point to increased demand this quarter.

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We reported previously that this could end up being a very strong rebounding quarter for Tesla, with so many people taking advantage of the tax credit.

Whether the delivery figures will be higher than normal remains to be seen. But all indications seem to point to Q3 being a very strong quarter for Tesla.

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Tesla bear Guggenheim sees nearly 50% drop off in stock price in new note

Tesla bear Guggenheim does not see any upside in Robotaxi.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla bear Guggenheim is still among the biggest non-believers in the company’s overall mission and its devotion to solving self-driving.

In a new note to investors on Thursday, analyst Ronald Jewsikow reiterated his price target of $175, a nearly 50 percent drop off, with a ‘Sell’ rating, all based on skepticism regarding Tesla’s execution of the Robotaxi platform.

A few days ago, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the company’s Robotaxi platform would open to the public in September, offering driverless rides to anyone in the Austin area within its geofence, which is roughly 90 square miles large.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirms Robotaxi is opening to the public: here’s when

However, Jewsikow’s skepticism regarding this timeline has to do with what’s going on inside of the vehicles. The analyst was willing to give props to Robotaxi, saying that Musk’s estimation of a September public launch would be a “key step” in offering the service to a broader population.

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Where Jewsikow’s real issue lies is with Tesla’s lack of transparency on the Safety Monitors, and how bulls are willing to overlook their importance.

Much of this bullish mentality comes from the fact that the Monitors are not sitting in the driver’s seat, and they don’t have anything to do with the overall operation of the vehicle.

Musk also said last month that reducing Safety Monitors could come “in a month or two.”

Instead, they’re just there to make sure everything runs smoothly.

Jewsikow said:

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“While safety drivers will remain, and no timeline has been provided for their removal, bulls have been willing to overlook the optics of safety drivers in TSLA vehicles, and we see no reason why that would change now.”

He also commented on Musk’s recent indication that Tesla was working on a 10x parameter count that could help make Full Self-Driving even more accurate. It could be one of the pieces to Tesla solving autonomy.

Jewsikow added:

“Perhaps most importantly for investors bullish on TSLA for the fleet of potential FSD-enabled vehicles today, the 10x higher parameter count will be able to run on the current generation of FSD hardware and inference compute.”

Elon Musk teases crazy new Tesla FSD model: here’s when it’s coming

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Tesla shares are down just about 2 percent today, trading at $332.47.

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Investor's Corner

Elon Musk issues dire warning to Tesla (TSLA) shorts

This time around, Tesla shorts should probably heed his words.

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Credit: Tesla

Elon Musk has issued a dire warning to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) short sellers. If they do not exit their position by the time Tesla attains autonomy, pain will follow. 

Musk has shared similar statements in the past, but this time around, Tesla shorts should probably heed his words.

Musk’s short warning

The Tesla CEO’s recent statement came as a response to Tesla retail shareholder and advocate Alexandra Merz, who shared a list of the electric vehicle maker’s short-sellers. These include MUFG Securities EMEA, Jane Street Group, Clean Energy Transition LLP, and Citadel Advisors, among others. As per the retail investor, some of Tesla’s short-sellers, such as Banque Pictet, have been decreasing their short position as of late.

In his reply, Elon Musk stated that Tesla shorts are on borrowed time. As per the CEO, TSLA shorts would be wise to exit their short position before autonomy is reached. If they do not, they will be wiped out. “If they don’t exit their short position before Tesla reaches autonomy at scale, they will be obliterated,” Musk wrote in his post.

Tesla’s autonomous program

Tesla short sellers typically disregard the progress that the company is making on its FSD program, which is currently being used in pilot ride-hailing programs in Austin and the Bay Area. While Tesla has taken longer than expected to attain autonomy, and while Musk himself admits to becoming the boy who cried FSD for years, autonomy does seem to be at hand this year. Tesla’s Unsupervised FSD is being used in Robotaxi services, and FSD V14 is poised to be released soon as well.

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Elon Musk highlighted this in a response to X user Ian N, who noted that numerous automakers such as Audi, BMW, Fiat-Chrysler, Ford, GM, Honda, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, and Toyota have all promised and failed in delivering autonomous systems for their vehicles. Thus, Tesla might be very late in the release of its autonomous features, but the company is by far the only automaker that is delivering on its promises today. Musk agreed with this notion, posting that “I might be late, but I always deliver in the end.”

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