Investor's Corner
Recap: Tesla first-quarter results; Model X on its way
Tesla first quarter earnings beat the estimates of stock analysts, who expected a loss of 50 cents a share. The actual loss was only 36 cents a share.
Tesla first-quarter results topped analysts expectations sending shares into positive territory during after-hours trading. The company announced a first-quarter loss of $45 million on revenue of $1.1 billion, which amounts to 36 cents a share on an adjusted basis. That compares to a loss of $50 million, or 40 cents a share, in the first quarter of 2014. Analysts had told investors to expect a loss of 50 cents a share.
On an unadjusted basis, the loss was $1.22 per share. Tesla said the loss includes $22 million, or 17 cents a share, in unrealized losses from foreign currency holdings due to the strong dollar.
The company is experiencing “growing” demand for its Model S electric sedan, according to a report in USA Today. Tesla delivered 10,045 cars during the first quarter and predicted it would produce another 12,500 cars in the second quarter.
The company assured analysts on Wednesday that it was on pace to deliver the expected 55,000 units this year. That number includes sales of both the Model S sedan and the upcoming Model X crossover which is said to begin deliveries starting in the third quarter.
Tesla shares closed at $230.43, down $2.52 or 1.08%, before the earnings report but rose 2.7% in after-hours trading to $236.70. In an exclusive interview with Teslarati, business strategist and Tesla owner Daniel Sparks (@DanielSparks) told us:
“Overall, the quarter was great. The key takeaway was Tesla’s ability to simultaneously maintain so many future growth plans, e.g. maintaining guidance for 55,000 vehicle deliveries in 2015 (up 74% from 2014 deliveries), planning to begin battery cell and pack production in the Gigafactory (which is currently under construction) by next year, expecting to let customers configure Model X by July, and planning to show off the Model 3 (for the first time) in March, 2016.
As shortsighted market watchers focus on near-term financial figures, long-term buy-and-hold Tesla investors know the company is a forward-looking growth story. And when viewed at the 10,000-foot level, Tesla is grade A.”
Perhaps the best news for stockholders was the announcement on April 30 that Tesla will begin selling its Powerwall batteries for residential use, together with its larger PowerPack batteries for commercial and grid scale energy storage, later this year.
Tesla’s Powerwall Home Battery will allow households to to go off the grid by charging via photovoltaic solar panels from SolarCity. Source: SolarCity
Elon Musk told analysts during the conference call that demand for the stationary batteries has been so “crazy” that the company is considering expanding its Gigafactory outside Reno to meet the demand. He said the company already has 38,000 reservations for the home wall unit and 2,500 from large industrial companies or utilities.
“The sheer volume of demand here is staggering,” said Musk. In fact, the Gigafactory could be kept completely busy just building stationary use batteries, the demand is so great.
ALSO SEE >>> Cost benefit analysis of owning the Tesla Powerwall.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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