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SpaceX’s next West Coast launches line up with flight-proven Falcon 9 rockets

(SpaceX)

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Major SpaceX customer Iridium has set an official target date for its eighth and final Iridium NEXT launch, expected to fly on a flight-proven Falcon 9 Block 5 booster as early as December 30th.

With Iridium-8 now tentatively on SpaceX’s launch manifest, the company’s West Coast schedule appears to have stabilized with two more orbital missions before the end of 2018 – Spaceflight Industry’s SSO-A rideshare mission will aim for the second half of November while Iridium-8 will likely be the last global launch of 2018 if it sticks to its December 30 target.

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Iridium CEO Matt Desch was happy to offer a few additional details after tweeting Iridium-8’s targeted launch date and confirmed that – despite original estimates to the contrary – the mission would launch on flight-proven Falcon 9 booster B1049.2. He also stated that the booster would attempt to land on SpaceX drone ship Just Read The Instructions after launch, passing up a Return-to-Launch-Site (RTLS) recovery at the freshly-coronated Landing Zone 4 (LZ-4) due to the significant weight and suboptimal trajectory of Iridium’s payload.

Barring unexpectedly heavy payloads, high-energy orbits, or new launch contracts, it’s probable that Iridium-8 will be the company’s last drone ship rocket recovery on the West Coast for at least a year, if not longer. The only unknown is whether SpaceX needs to or is able to launch during harbor seal pupping season, lasting from March to June – if that environmental concern can be sidestepped or altogether avoided, there may be no reason for Just Read The Instructions to remain in California when the drone ship could instead move to Florida and immediately facilitate faster launch cadence or support Falcon Heavy missions that could benefit from multiple booster landings at sea.

 

According to CEO Elon Musk and other executives, SpaceX is already building a third autonomous spaceport drone ship (ASDS) for the same reasons, to be named A Shortfall of Gravitas (ASOG) upon completion. Earlier this summer, Musk stated that the new vessel could be completed as early as summer of 2019, although he has since also stated that the first full BFR launches may take place on a floating platform somewhere off the coast of the US, increasing the probability of SpaceX delaying ASOG’s construction to allow for future use as both a launch and landing platform.

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Triple booster reuse on the horizon

Returning to SpaceX’s Q4 2018 Vandenberg launch manifest, its launch of Spaceflight Industry’s SSO-A rideshare mission is expected to occur sometime next month and will likely be SpaceX’s second-to-last launch before the year is out. Notably, SpaceX executive Hans Koenigsmann recently suggested that SSO-A may end up playing host to the company’s first attempt to launch the same Falcon 9 booster three times. All previous Falcon 9 reuses have been the rockets’ second launches and typically saw SpaceX expend the booster in the ocean rather than recover it and attempt refurbishment for a third launch.

Falcon 9 Block 5, however, included a huge number of upgrades to the rocket’s overall stamina and reusability, theoretically raising the number of potential flights per booster from 10-100. Examined generally, moving from two to three flights per booster may seem inconsequential. The reality, however, is that the first true confirmation of the success or failure of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 Block 5 upgrade will be whether a Block 5 booster is able to safely complete three missions and do so with relative ease.

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Falcon 9 B1046 returned to Port Canaveral in mid-August after the first Block 5 booster reuse, hopefully the first of dozens or even hundreds to come. (Tom Cross)

As SpaceX technicians and engineers gradually gain confidence with the new rocket iteration, debuted less than six months ago, the focus will eventually move from cautiously methodical design validation to rapid booster turnaround, eventually culminating in something approximating the 24-hour first stage reuse Musk challenged his company to achieve before 2019 is out. Ultimately, the third launch of a single Falcon 9 Block 5 booster will be the biggest step yet towards SpaceX’s ultimate goal of rapidly and affordably reusable orbital-class rockets.


For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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SpaceX IPO could push Elon Musk’s net worth past $1 trillion: Polymarket

The estimates were shared by the official Polymarket Money account on social media platform X.

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Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Recent projections have outlined how a potential $1.75 trillion SpaceX IPO could generate historic returns for early investors. The projections suggest the offering would not only become the largest IPO in history but could also result in unprecedented windfalls for some of the company’s key investors.

The estimates were shared by the official Polymarket Money account on social media platform X.

As noted in a Polymarket Money analysis, Elon Musk invested $100 million into SpaceX in 2002 and currently owns approximately 42% of the company. At a $1.75 trillion valuation following SpaceX’s potential $1.75 trillion IPO, that stake would be worth roughly $735 billion.

Such a figure would dramatically expand Musk’s net worth. When combined with his holdings in Tesla Inc. and other ventures, a public debut at that level could position him as the world’s first trillionaire, depending on market conditions at the time of listing.

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The Bloomberg Billionaires Index currently lists Elon Musk with a net worth of $666 billion, though a notable portion of this is tied to his TSLA stock. Tesla currently holds a market cap of $1.51 trillion, and Elon Musk’s currently holds about 13% to 15% of the company’s outstanding common stock.

Founders Fund, co-founded by Peter Thiel, invested $20 million in SpaceX in 2008. Polymarket Money estimates the firm owns between 1.5% and 3% of the private space company. At a $1.75 trillion valuation, that range would translate to approximately $26.25 billion to $52.5 billion in value.

That return would represent one of the most significant venture capital outcomes in modern Silicon Valley history, with a growth of 131,150% to 262,400%.

Alphabet Inc., Google’s parent company, invested $900 million into SpaceX in 2015 and is estimated to hold between 6% and 7% of the private space firm. At the projected IPO valuation, that stake could be worth between $105 billion and $122.5 billion. That’s a growth of 11,566% to 14,455%.

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Other major backers highlighted in the post include Fidelity Investments, Baillie Gifford, Valor Equity Partners, Bank of America, and Andreessen Horowitz, each potentially sitting on multibillion-dollar gains.

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SpaceX considering confidential IPO filing this March: report

The filing could pave the way for a June listing at a valuation that may exceed $1.75 trillion.

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Credit: SpaceX/X

SpaceX is reportedly preparing to confidentially file for an initial public offering (IPO) as soon as March. The filing could pave the way for a June listing at a valuation that may exceed $1.75 trillion, potentially making it the largest IPO in history.

The update was initially reported by Bloomberg News, which cited information shared by people reportedly familiar with the matter. 

As per the publication, a confidential filing allows a company to receive regulatory feedback before publicly releasing its financials. Bloomberg’s source, however, noted that the timing of SpaceX’s IPO is still under discussion and plans could change.

SpaceX did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

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A March submission would mark the clearest step yet toward bringing Elon Musk’s private space company into public markets. People familiar with the preparations said the offering could raise as much as $50 billion. That would surpass the $29 billion debut of Saudi Aramco in 2019, currently the largest IPO on record.

Major banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America Corp. are reportedly positioned for senior roles in the transaction. SpaceX is also said to be considering a dual-class structure that would allow insiders, including Musk, to retain enhanced voting control.

Satellite communications provider EchoStar Corp., which holds a stake in SpaceX, reportedly saw its shares rise following news of the potential filing.

At a valuation exceeding $1.75 trillion, SpaceX would immediately have a larger market cap than all but five of the companies traded in the S&P 500 index. That figure would place it ahead of Meta Platforms Inc. and Tesla Inc. by market capitalization, trailing only a small group of mega-cap firms such as Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp.

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The scale of the proposed valuation reflects SpaceX’s dominance in orbital launch services and its Starlink satellite network, which serves millions of users globally. The company has also outlined long-term expansion plans tied to higher Starship launch cadence, orbital infrastructure, and lunar development initiatives.

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Elon Musk outlines plan for first Starship tower catch attempt

Musk confirmed that Starship V3 Ship 1 (SN1) is headed for ground tests and expressed strong confidence in the updated vehicle design.

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Credit: SpaceX/X

Elon Musk has clarified when SpaceX will first attempt to catch Starship’s upper stage with its launch tower. The CEO’s update provides the clearest teaser yet for the spacecraft’s recovery roadmap.

Musk shared the details in recent posts on X. In his initial post, Musk confirmed that Starship V3 Ship 1 (SN1) is headed for ground tests and expressed strong confidence in the updated vehicle design.

“Starship V3 SN1 headed for ground tests. I am highly confident that the V3 design will achieve full reusability,” Musk wrote.

In a follow-up post, Musk addressed when SpaceX would attempt to catch the upper stage using the launch tower’s robotic arms. 

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“Should note that SpaceX will only try to catch the ship with the tower after two perfect soft landings in the ocean. The risk of the ship breaking up over land needs to be very low,” Musk clarified. 

His remarks suggest that SpaceX is deliberately reducing risk before attempting a tower catch of Starship’s upper stage. Such a milestone would mark a major step towards the full reuse of the Starship system.

SpaceX is currently targeting the first Starship V3 flight of 2026 this coming March. The spacecraft’s V3 iteration is widely viewed as a key milestone in SpaceX’s long-term strategy to make Starship fully reusable. 

Starship V3 features a number of key upgrades over its previous iterations. The vehicle is equipped with SpaceX’s Raptor V3 engines, which are designed to deliver significantly higher thrust than earlier versions while reducing cost and weight. 

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The V3 design is also expected to be optimized for manufacturability, a critical step if SpaceX intends to scale the spacecraft’s production toward frequent launches for Starlink, lunar missions, and eventually Mars. 

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