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SpaceX executive forecasts 6 Falcon Heavy launches in 12 months
A SpaceX sales executive predicts that the company will launch Falcon Heavy, currently the most powerful operational rocket in the world, up to six times in the next 12 months.
Following years of delays and anticipation as SpaceX waited for the right moment to move forward with the massive rocket, Falcon Heavy debuted in February 2018 by launching CEO Elon Musk’s original Tesla Roadster into interplanetary space. The debut was nearly flawless and only marred by the loss of one of the rocket’s three first-stage boosters, which failed to touch down on a drone ship stationed in the Atlantic Ocean. In just a small taste of things to come, Falcon Heavy’s second launch followed 14 months later.
That April 2019 launch marked the rocket’s first commercial mission and sent a large communications satellite into an extra-energetic geostationary transfer orbit. Less than three months later, Falcon Heavy completed its third launch – a demonstration mission for the US Air Force. Such a quick turnaround raised hopes, but that optimism was unfortunately unfounded. 39 months later, it’s still hard to say when Falcon Heavy will finally launch for the fourth time.
Contrary to the connotations such a long gap between launches might evoke, Falcon Heavy’s manifest has grown at a respectable rate and currently sits at 11 launches. That includes two commercial satellite launches and three launches for the US military, but NASA (directly and indirectly) is by far SpaceX’s most eager Falcon Heavy customer with six firm launches booked and options for another two.
For years, however, all supposedly near-term Falcon Heavy launches have been more or less indefinitely delayed by payload problems. SpaceX has had no issues building and qualifying a huge amount of Falcon Heavy hardware for those missions, but the lack of payloads ready to fly has forced the company to find places to store all seven boosters – more than a third of its fleet – indefinitely.
That may finally change. Speaking on a panel at the 2022 World Satellite Business Week, SpaceX Vice President of Commercial Sales Tom Ochinero told the audience that the company has six Falcon Heavy launches scheduled in the next 12 months.
It’s possible that Falcon Heavy could end its launch hiatus and kick off that six-mission streak in the very near future. Spaceflight Now, a reliable source of launch schedules, recently updated its Launch Schedule to move Falcon Heavy’s USSF-44 mission up from late 2022 or 2023 to October 2022. Next Spaceflight, another reliable primary source, concurs. Both sources also agree that two additional missions (ViaSat-3 and USSF-67) could also launch this year.
For USSF-44 and ViaSat-3, Falcon Heavy will launch both sets of payloads directly into geostationary orbit – a type of mission SpaceX has never attempted. The rocket’s upper stage will need to survive a roughly six-hour coast in space and a trip through Earth’s radiation belts before firing up for a long burn to circularize its orbit around 36,000 kilometers (~22,300 mi) above the planet’s surface. To leave the upper stage with enough propellant for such a challenging task, SpaceX will intentionally expend one of Falcon Heavy’s three boosters during each launch. It remains to be seen which mission will launch first.
Given the history of all six of Falcon Heavy’s near-term missions, it’s safer to assume that the rocket isn’t going to launch at all in 2022 until a fully assembled vehicle has rolled out to the launch pad. For a late October launch, the USSF-44 payload(s) would need to arrive in Florida any day now, and SpaceX would need to start transporting Falcon Heavy boosters to Pad 39A’s integration hangar within a week or two to begin assembling the rocket. If that process begins, it’s likely that one or several of those distinct boosters will be spotted on their way to Pad 39A.
Including USSF-44, unofficial public manifests like Spaceflight Now and Next Spaceflight agree with Ochinero’s assertion that SpaceX has six Falcon Heavy missions tentatively scheduled in the next 12 months. Unspecified US military contractors are currently stumbling over themselves to prepare several satellites for launch: USSF-44 NET October 2022, USSF-67 NET December 2022, and USSF-52 NET April 2023. ViaSat and EchoStar contractors Boeing and Maxar are also struggling to prepare two massive commercial communications satellites for launches in November 2022 and January 2023. Finally, NASA’s Psyche asteroid explorer could be ready for its second launch attempt as early as July 2023 if the agency decides to proceed.
Delays are virtually guaranteed. Stay tuned for updates.
Elon Musk clapped back at France’s decision to withhold the approval for Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) Supervised system, projecting a clear and blunt message to French Transport Minister Phillippe Tabarot, after he publicly rejected the technology in its current form.
Tabarot outlines several concerns with Tesla Full Self-Driving in a detailed video statement, where he said, “The safety trade-offs are not yet sufficient to authorize it as it currently stands,” he said. He emphasized that FSD is not a true self-driving system and that the driver remains fully responsible.
Key issues Tabarot also brought up included allowing speeding when surrounding traffic exceeds limits and what he believes are insufficient guarantees of driver attention during complex urban maneuvers such as lane changes, intersections, and roundabouts.
Delaying the approval of FSD in France will cost lives
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 22, 2026
While acknowledging technological progress and France’s support for autonomous innovation, Tabarot stressed that deployment must prioritize road safety. He noted ongoing technical discussions with Tesla, the Netherlands, and other European partners, with further ecosystem meetings planned for the fall.
Musk’s rebuke highlights the human cost of regulatory caution. Tesla’s latest safety reports provide compelling data supporting accelerated adoption. In the most recent 12-month period, vehicles using FSD (Supervised) recorded one major collision per approximately 5.1 million miles driven, dramatically better than the U.S. national average of one crash per 698,000 miles.
Even Tesla vehicles driven manually with active safety features outperform the average by a wide margin. These figures come from billions of real-world miles of telemetry, showing FSD vehicles involved in far fewer incidents than both manual Teslas and the broader U.S. fleet.
Critics argue Tesla’s comparisons require careful scrutiny regarding reporting thresholds and fleet demographics, yet the data consistently positions FSD as a potential lifesaver. With road fatalities remaining a leading cause of death worldwide, Musk contends that proven safer technology should not face prolonged bureaucratic hurdles.
France’s measured approach reflects the broader European regulatory caution, which many, especially Musk, have been critical of in the past. However, as autonomous systems from Tesla and competitors like Waymo demonstrate superior safety in independent studies, pressure is mounting for harmonized approvals.
Musk’s warning carries the belief that every month of delay may equate to avoidable tragedies on European roads.
In a striking revelation that underscores the lucrative crossover between Big Tech and space exploration, Alphabet Inc., Google’s parent company, disclosed a massive $94.1 billion equity stake in SpaceX following the rocket company’s blockbuster initial public offering earlier this year.
The disclosure came in Alphabet’s quarterly filing, marking the first time the long-held private investment has been publicly valued at market prices. Google was an early backer, investing alongside Fidelity in 2015 with roughly $500-900 million at a time when SpaceX was valued around $12 billion.
That bet has delivered extraordinary returns, roughly a hundredfold, transforming a strategic play on satellite internet and launch capabilities into one of Alphabet’s largest assets.
Google, $GOOGL, has said they hold $94 billion in SpaceX, $SPCX, shares after IPO.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) July 23, 2026
Of the total holding, approximately $80 billion remains subject to short-term post-IPO lockup restrictions, preventing near-term sales. An additional $14.1 billion faces longer-term restrictions, extending into the third quarter of 2027. This structure limits immediate liquidity but protects against market volatility as SpaceX transitions into public trading.
The SpaceX position contributed significantly to gains in Alphabet’s broader investment portfolio, which also includes a major stake in AI leader Anthropic. Combined, these holdings helped drive nearly $100 billion in investment gains during the second quarter, providing a substantial boost to net income amid ongoing AI spending pressures.
Analysts view the disclosure as validation of Alphabet’s venture strategy beyond its core search and cloud businesses. The investment aligns with deeper ties, including reported multi-billion-dollar deals for AI computing capacity on SpaceX infrastructure. As SpaceX advances Starship flights, Starlink expansion, and ambitious Mars goals under Elon Musk, Google’s stake positions it to benefit from the commercialization of space.
For Alphabet, the windfall highlights how patient, forward-looking bets in transformative sectors can yield outsized rewards. While lockups temper short-term impact, the holding cements SpaceX as a cornerstone of Alphabet’s diversified portfolio in an era where aerospace, AI, and connectivity increasingly intersect. Investors will watch closely as restrictions lift and SpaceX’s public performance unfolds.
In early 2026, Tesla made a bold strategic pivot: it largely eliminated the option to purchase Full Self-Driving (FSD) software outright and shifted to a subscription-only model. The change, effective around mid-February, ended the one-time fee that had previously ranged as high as $15,000 and later dropped to $8,000. Instead, customers would access FSD (Supervised) for $99 per month in the U.S.
At the time, skeptics questioned whether locking customers into recurring payments would hurt adoption or alienate buyers who preferred ownership of the feature. Tesla bet that a lower barrier to entry, seamless integration at purchase, and the ability to cancel at any time would drive higher uptake.
The results from Q2 2026 speak for themselves: the decision has been a resounding success, delivering the largest quarterly growth in FSD subscriptions in the company’s history.
Tesla FSD subscriptions went up 56% in Q2 2026 to 1.48 million, an increase of 200,000 from Q1 2026.
Tesla added more FSD subscribers in Q2 than in any quarter in its history. pic.twitter.com/jTciTD2JqW
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) July 22, 2026
According to Tesla’s Q2 shareholder update, active FSD subscriptions reached 1.48 million globally by the end of June 2026. That represents a 56 percent increase year-over-year and a 15.6 percent jump from the prior quarter. Tesla added roughly 200,000 new subscriptions in the period alone—the biggest single-quarter gain on record.
North America led the charge, with more than 55 percent of new vehicle deliveries including an FSD subscription at the time of purchase, a record attach rate for the region.
Tesla explicitly noted that “more customers [are] opting for subscription at the time of vehicle purchase,” crediting the model shift and prominent placement of the option in the ordering process. Subscriptions now contribute meaningfully to ancillary revenue, helping offset pressure elsewhere in the business.
The financial upside is substantial: At $99 per month, 1.48 million active subscriptions generate approximately $146.5 million in monthly recurring revenue. Over a full year, that equates to roughly $1.76 billion in annualized recurring revenue (ARR) from FSD subscriptions alone, assuming steady retention and no major pricing changes.
These figures represent pure, high-margin software revenue. Unlike vehicle sales, which carry production costs, warranty obligations, and supply-chain risks, FSD subscriptions flow largely to the bottom line once the software is developed and deployed over-the-air.
Tesla does not break out exact FSD subscription revenue in its filings (it sits within “Services and Other”), but the category grew 50 percent year-over-year in Q2, with executives highlighting subscriptions as a key driver.
The subscription model offers several structural advantages. It lowers the upfront cost of a new Tesla, potentially broadening the buyer pool and supporting vehicle demand, especially important amid fluctuating EV market conditions. It creates a predictable revenue stream that compounds as the fleet grows and more owners try (and stick with) the software.
Legacy one-time purchasers still exist, but new growth is overwhelmingly subscription-based following the February cutoff.
Early data also suggests improving retention and satisfaction, as well. Tesla has rolled out iterative FSD updates, including v14 features, and expanded availability to additional markets. Recent regulatory approvals in parts of Europe have further boosted interest, with owners in newly enabled countries eager to activate the software they had been waiting for.
FSD is still supervised; regulatory hurdles for true unsupervised autonomy persist in many regions, including the United States, and competition in advanced driver-assistance systems is intensifying. Yet the Q2 numbers validate Tesla’s bet: by removing the large upfront commitment and making FSD accessible via subscription, the company has accelerated adoption faster than many anticipated.
What began as a controversial switch-up has become a clear win. With nearly 1.5 million subscribers, record attach rates, and nearly $1.8 billion in potential annual recurring revenue already in view, Tesla’s FSD business is transitioning from a promised future to a tangible, fast-growing profit engine.
If the momentum continues, and especially if unsupervised capabilities unlock robotaxi opportunities, the subscription flywheel could become one of the most valuable assets in Tesla’s portfolio.
Elon Musk claps back at France’s Tesla Full Self-Driving approval delay
Google’s massive stake in SpaceX will shock you
