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SpaceX’s next big BFR spaceship part finished in Port of LA tent facility
The first 9-meter (29.5-foot) diameter composite propellant tank dome for SpaceX’s full-scale BFR spaceship prototype has been spotted more or less complete at the company’s temporary Port of Los Angeles facility, unambiguous evidence that SpaceX is continuing to rapidly fabricate major components of its next-generation rocket.
Speaking at a dedicated BFR update event in mid-September, CEO Elon Musk foreshadowed as much, and recent updates have reiterated just how committed SpaceX is to BFR and just how keen the company is to waste no time at all.
“We’ve built the first cylinder section…and we’ll be building the domes and the engine section soon.” – SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, September 2018
During that September 17th presentation, Musk did not parse his words despite a self-admitted tendency to look at SpaceX’s development program timelines (Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Dragon, BFR) through rose-tinted glasses. Just two months after he uttered the quote above, SpaceX has visibly either finished or nearly finished a 9-meter diameter BFR spaceship (BFS) tank dome.
Due to SpaceX’s opaque treatment of development programs (both literally for the tent and figuratively for official updates), it’s possible that this may even the second dome completed so far. Either way, it can be extrapolated – assuming that the layout of BFR 2017 is generally representative of BFR 2018 – that the first spaceship prototype will require two or three roughly identical tank domes. If the common-dome tank layout is basically the same (disclaimer: it might be quite different), then SpaceX may end up mounting BFS’ 7 Raptor engines almost directly to the rear of the bottom tank dome, requiring either significant structural reinforcement or a second uniquely-engineer and optimized dome.
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- A tall platform was moved inside the tent around November 10th, likely to support the integration of the tank dome and barrel section. (Pauline Acalin)
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- The dome was spied inside the tent on November 12. (Pauline Acalin)
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- The dome (left) and barrel section (right) can now be integrated. (Pauline Acalin)
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- BFR 2017’s spaceship engine section. (SpaceX)
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- An overview of BFS (circa 2017). (SpaceX)O
Judging from SpaceX’s and Musk’s desire to make reusable rockets as reliable as (if not even more reliable than) commercial airliners, the safest form of mass-transit humans have created, it seems more likely than not that Raptor and BFR will continue SpaceX’s practice of quite literally surrounding each engine with thrust-transmitting structures that simultaneously act as armored shields. In the event that a Merlin engine fails on Falcon 9 or Heavy, each booster’s octaweb contains nine separate armored chambers that exist to isolate each engine in the event of a catastrophic failure. In fact, a Merlin failure – the only such in-flight failure known – during SpaceX’s CRS-1 Dragon launch in 2012 demonstrated the efficacy of this design, preventing the failure of just one of nine engines from causing total mission failure.
Rise of the ‘hexaweb’?
To replicate that design strategy on BFR (both booster and spaceship) would be an act of simple pragmatism – it’s always preferable to design for survivability and reliability than to couch launch and mission success primarily on the reliability of individual components. Because SpaceX chose not to share similarly detailed cutaways of BFR’s updated 2018 design, it’s unclear if the spaceship’s engine section (“hexaweb”, to borrow from “octaweb”) has changed dramatically.
Given the unexpected decision to move entirely away from a version of Raptor specifically optimized for vacuum operation for BFR’s first iteration, as well as the new presence of ~90 cubic meters of storage bins around the circumference of the spaceship’s aft, it’s possible that SpaceX will opt for a design more reminiscent of the Falcon family’s octaweb.
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- The rear of SpaceX’s updated BFS.
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- A better view. (SpaceX)
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- A September 2018 render of Starship (then BFS) shows one of the vehicle’s two hinged wings/fins/legs. (SpaceX)
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- A gif of Raptor throttling over the course of a 90+ second static-fire test in McGregor, Texas. (SpaceX)
Regardless, the appearance of a completed BFS tank dome is a major development on the vehicle’s path to integrated testing and paves the way for the fabrication of additional tank domes, barrel sections, engine sections, and more. Particularly obvious and noteworthy will be the fabrication of the prototype spaceship’s pointed cone-shaped nose section, its large tripod fins/wings/legs, and its two forward canard wings.
With all three fins/wings installed, BFS – in its current iteration – would have an unbelievable circumference of ~67 meters (220 feet) and a ‘finspan’ of perhaps 21 meters (~70 feet) tip to tip. BFS is going to be a very hard spaceship to hide.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
