SpaceX
SpaceX’s Crew Dragon and Falcon 9 Block 5 rocket are almost ready for astronauts
In a Commercial Crew update presented by Program Manager Kathy Lueders to the NASA Advisory Council (NAC), the agency has confirmed that SpaceX is deep into the final stages of hardware preparation and testing ahead of their first uncrewed and crewed demonstrations launches of Crew Dragon.
Barring a miracle for Commercial Crew Program partner Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft program or serious faults leading up to SpaceX’s own debuts, SpaceX is all but guaranteed to become the first private company in history to design, build, and launch a spacecraft into Earth orbit with real astronauts onboard.
PICTURE OF B1051!!! It will ship to the Cape from McGregor soon.
Solar panel array on the trunk for the DM-1 capsule will take place in Hawthorne. pic.twitter.com/K82GANn5zr
— Michael Baylor (@MichaelBaylor_) August 27, 2018
SpaceX’s DM-1 Crew Dragon (serial number C201; “C” for capsule, “2” for Dragon 2, and “01” for capsule #1) capsule is already in Florida at one of the company’s spacecraft processing facilities, while that vehicle’s trunk segment – a module mounted below the capsule responsible for providing power (solar arrays), thermal regulation (radiator panels), and external cargo lift capacity – is scheduled to ship from Hawthorne, CA to Florida by the end of September. Demonstration Mission-1 (DM-1) is currently targeting a launch debut no earlier than November 2018.
DM-1’s Falcon 9 launch vehicle, booster B1051 and an expendable second stage, are also making significant progress towards the Crew Dragon’s uncrewed debut launch. NASA’s report noted that B1051 was on track for shipment (presumably to the Cape) sometime in the fall (technically anytime after August 31st) and that the upper stage would likely find its way to Florida soon after, sometime in September. Due to the fact that Merlin Vacuum engine qualification has not yet been completed, that milestone is likely the only thing standing between S2 shipment to FL, as SpaceX typically builds and tests both Falcon 9 segments near-simultaneously.
- One of the aforementioned balloon-drop parachute tests. (SpaceX)
- The DM-1 Crew Dragon capsule soon after completion. (SpaceX)
- DM-1 seen conducting acoustic testing in Ohio. (SpaceX)
- Falcon 9 B1051, DM-1’s rocket of choice, seen during construction in SpaceX’s Hawthorne factory. (SpaceX)
- B1051’s octaweb, the structure that Merlin engines attach to and thrust against. (SpaceX)
- The DM-2 Crew Dragon’s trunk module seen during production. (SpaceX)
- Crew Dragon astronauts test the capsule’s display controls. (SpaceX)
- SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule C203 – then assigned DM-2 – is seen here in August 2018. (Pauline Acalin)
Meanwhile, SpaceX has successfully completed a duo of unique and critical tests of Crew Dragon’s parachute systems, carrying a Crew Dragon mass simulator (i.e. boilerplate) up to 45,000 feet (13,700 m) under a huge balloon before dropping the mockup, a test series designed to prove out the ability of the parachute system to successfully deploy and function in the exact flight regimes the real hardware will experience while safely returning astronauts to Earth. As NASA Commercial Crew Program Manager Kathy Lueders herself noted, that type of testing is extremely difficult to pull off, but SpaceX has thus far completed two.
On the launch pad side of things, SpaceX will be exclusively conducting Crew Dragon missions from Pad 39A. The company completed installation of a strikingly modern-looking crew access arm (CAA) just days ago, marking a crucial milestone for the historic launch complex to be truly ready to support human spaceflight once more, a heritage represented physically by the tower the arm is installed on (Shuttle-era) and the pad’s foundation and thrust diverter (constructed to support Saturn V’s Apollo moon missions).
That’s right provided the two Crew Dragon test flights go well. Hardware will def be ready. https://t.co/KcAFArYn1x
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 6, 2018
Further down the road, SpaceX has already entered into the late stages of hardware integration and preparation for the second Crew Dragon demonstration mission (DM-2), which will almost without a doubt see SpaceX become the first private entity in history to build, launch, and operate a crewed spacecraft in Earth orbit.
According to NASA’s SpaceX-derived schedule, that particularly historic spacecraft is expected to be ready for launch as early as January, a full three months prior to its current April 2018 launch date. CEO Elon Musk did note recently on Twitter that the hardware for both crewed and uncrewed demonstration missions would “def[initely] be ready” for the launch dates of November 2018 and April 2019.
Catch all the technical SpaceX-related slides below.
- August 27, 2018. (NASA)
- August 27, 2018. (NASA)
- August 27, 2018. (NASA)
- August 27, 2018. (NASA)
- August 27, 2018. (NASA)
For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!
Investor's Corner
SpaceX gets initial stock coverage from Tesla’s biggest bull
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
Elon Musk
Tesla Phone? Not quite, but close: analyst
For years, there have been images and videos across social media platforms that have reminded me of when I was a 15-year-old kid teased by “Xbox 720” videos on YouTube. These videos are of the supposed “Tesla Phone” that Elon Musk was secretly developing in between leading Tesla with its electric cars and SpaceX with its reusable rockets.
Would you buy a Tesla phone ? pic.twitter.com/aaTwvvIJit
— Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) October 6, 2023
Although Musk has put those rumors to bed several times, it was never completely out of the realm that he could get involved in cell phones in some capacity. Think outside the box and more macro-level, though. Instead of reinventing the computer, Musk reinvented connectivity by developing Starlink with SpaceX.
It could be something similar, TD Cowen analyst Gregory Williams said in a note last week, where he hinted SpaceX could be gathering some steam to acquire T-Mobile.
Williams said it would be the “clear choice” for SpaceX if it decided to go through with a network acquisition. He also suggested AT&T.
The move would be possible through selling more of its own stock, which would help SpaceX raise the money to purchase T-Mobile, which would cost roughly $300 billion. It could be one of the moves SpaceX makes post-IPO in terms of an acquisition: it already acquired Cursor AI for $60 billion.
Other analysts, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, believe SpaceX and Tesla will eventually merge into one anyway, and that conglomeration could come as soon as this year, some have said.
The implications of SpaceX purchasing T-Mobile are massive. A combined entity would create a truly ubiquitous network: T-Mobile’s terrestrial 5G towers and Starlink’s growing constellation of Direct-to-Cell satellites. This would essentially eliminate dead zones across the U.S. and potentially globally.
SpaceX would instantly become a full-scale facilities-based carrier with satellite differentiation; a huge advantage. This would pressure AT&T and Verizon heavily.
There are also concerns like a potential reduction in long-term competition, and of course, a deal of that size would face intense scrutiny from government agencies.
The strategic fit is compelling due to the existing Starlink–T-Mobile partnership and complementary technologies (space + terrestrial). It could create a dominant integrated communications player. However, the regulatory, financial, and execution hurdles are enormous — this remains highly speculative with no indication SpaceX is actively pursuing it right now.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s newest Starmind will make earth data centers obsolete
Elon Musk confirmed Starmind as SpaceX’s AI satellite constellation name, targeting one million orbital compute nodes.
Elon Musk confirmed that Starmind will be the official name of SpaceX’s planned AI satellite constellation, following a trademark filing by xAI that surfaced earlier this week. Starmind is what’s being described to the FCC as a constellation of up to one million AI satellites
It’s worth noting that SpaceX’s Starlink communication satellite and Starmind are built on the same orbital infrastructure concept but serve entirely different purposes. Starlink is a connectivity network, with satellites receiving and relaying data between points on Earth, and functioning as a high-speed internet backbone in space. The satellites themselves do not process or think, and move information from one place to another, the same function a fiber cable performs underground.
SpaceX just forced Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile to team up for the first time in history
Starmind, on the other hand, is something completely different, and tather than moving data, its satellites would compute data through artificial intelligence and directly in orbit using onboard processors powered by large solar arrays. Where a Starlink satellite is essentially a very fast pipe, a Starmind satellite is a server. The practical implication is that Starmind would allow AI models to run inference, process queries, and generate outputs from space, then beam results down to users anywhere on Earth within milliseconds, and without the data ever needing to travel to a terrestrial data center.
Starship will be able to carry 30 to 50 AI1 satellites per launch, delivering the equivalent of dozens of server racks per flight, with no land acquisition, no power grid approval, and no cooling infrastructure required on the ground.
SpaceX is pursuing this new technology as terrestrial data centers are running into hard limits such as lack of physical space, community opposition, and power and water consumption at a scale that is increasingly difficult to permit. Space has unlimited solar power, natural vacuum cooling, and no zoning boards. Musk said in a June 8 video presentation that he expects space to become the lowest-cost location to deploy AI compute within two to three years. Two AI1 prototypes are scheduled to launch in early 2027, with volume production targeted for the end of that year at a new facility called Gigasat.
The real world applications Starmind enables extend well beyond powering Grok. A constellation of orbiting AI processors could run inference workloads for any paying customer, anywhere on Earth, with latency measured in milliseconds rather than the seconds associated with ground-based cloud routing across continents. Starmind, if it scales as described, would make SpaceX the landlord of AI compute the same way Starlink made it the landlord of satellite internet.













