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SpaceX’s Crew Dragon, Falcon 9 likely ready for astronaut launch debut in 10 weeks, says Musk

Crew Dragon capsule C203 and Falcon 9 booster B1046 arrived in Florida around October 3rd ahead of SpaceX's critical In-Flight Abort (IFA) test. (SpaceX)

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According to SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, the Crew Dragon spacecraft and Falcon 9 rocket meant to support the company’s first-ever astronaut launch should be ready for flight as early as December 2019.

His implication is clear: after Crew Dragon’s In-Flight Abort (IFA) test and flight preparations are complete and the hardware is integrated in Florida, ready for launch, the bulk of delays beyond that point will rest heavily on how expeditiously NASA is willing and able to complete the paperwork and reviews still in the way.

Perhaps the single biggest point of uncertainty for Crew Dragon’s astronaut launch debut (Demo-2) is the completion of the spacecraft’s crucial IFA test, a high-altitude, high-velocity abort meant to demonstrate safe crew escape capabilities even at the most stressful point of launch. Assuming Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon perform flawlessly during that challenging test and NASA concurs after reviewing the results, the only major obstacles remaining for Demo-2 will be the pace of NASA’s reviews and paperwork completion.

Confirmed by a recent NASA tweet with photos of the hardware, the Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon assigned to the IFA arrived in Florida in the first few days of October, right on schedule. As Musk notes, thrice-flown Falcon 9 booster B1046 must first complete a routine static fire test, while SpaceX also needs to prepare Pad 39A for flight after several months of downtime.

Additionally, SpaceX is deep into the process of constructing dedicated Starship launch facilities at Pad 39A, meaning that loose construction equipment and materials are scattered across a large section of the pad’s apron. Much of that may have to be relocated or secured before Falcon 9 can safely introduce its own form of storm-force winds to the area.

According to NASA, the Falcon 9 rocket and Crew Dragon capsule that will support SpaceX’s In-Flight Abort (IFA) test both arrived in Florida within the last several days. (SpaceX)

Meanwhile, SpaceX confirmed more than a month ago that the Falcon 9 booster assigned to support Crew Dragon’s inaugural astronaut launch has already completed a routine static fire acceptance test in McGregor, Texas. On September 28th, CEO Elon Musk also stated that the Demo-2 Crew Dragon spacecraft would likely arrive in Florida in November 2019, likely a strong estimate given that he also forecast the IFA Crew Dragon’s arrival in October. The latter capsule arrived in Florida approximately five days after Musk’s statement.

Traditionally, one might assume that NASA’s flight-readiness is closer to the truth than SpaceX’s, owing to the space agency’s decades of experience and (in)famously methodical approach to spaceflight safety. However, at this point in time, it’s impossible to accurately conclude that NASA or SpaceX’s due diligence is superior. Crew Dragon capsule C201 suffered a massive explosion in April 2019, ripping the spacecraft to pieces as a result of a valve’s fault design, a failure that would have almost certainly killed any astronauts onboard.

SpaceX’s first spaceworthy Crew Dragon capsule prepares for its first Falcon 9-integrated static fire and a post-recovery test fire three months later. (SpaceX)

Neither NASA or SpaceX foresaw that failure mode, despite dozens of agonizingly detailed reviews over years of work, (supposedly) constant NASA oversight, and months upon months of delays to Crew Dragon’s Demo-1 launch debut as NASA and SpaceX worked to completed yet more reviews and paperwork. This is all to say that it remains as frustratingly unclear as ever whether NASA’s reviews and paperwork – likely to delay Crew Dragon’s astronaut launch debut well into Q1 or even Q2 2020 – are worth more than the trouble

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk may rethink his charity pledge after Peter Thiel’s Bill Gates warning: report

Musk reportedly took Thiel’s suggestion seriously.

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Credit: Tesla

Reports have emerged suggesting that Elon Musk might be rethinking his promise to give away most of his fortune. This was reportedly due to his longtime friend Peter Thiel, who told the world’s richest man to withdraw from the Giving Pledge because his wealth could end up “in left-wing nonprofits chosen by Bill Gates.”

Thiel shared the story during a private lecture series in San Francisco in September. As noted in a Reuters report, Musk reportedly took Thiel’s suggestion seriously.

Thiel warned Musk about his fortune going to Gates-backed causes

Thiel said he even ran the math to make his point. By checking actuarial tables, he calculated that if Musk died within a year, his pledge would effectively direct $1.4 billion to Bill Gates. Musk reportedly said, “What am I supposed to do, give it to my children? You know, it would be much worse to give it to Bill Gates.”

Musk signed on to the Giving Pledge in 2012, two years after it was co-founded by Gates and Warren Buffett, as noted in a Daily Beast report. The initiative asks billionaires to donate the majority of their wealth to charitable causes either during their lifetime or through their wills. Gates’ foundation has focused on global health, education, and gender equality, areas Thiel has described as “left-leaning.”

Spokespeople for Thiel, Musk, and Gates have not issued a comment about the matter.

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Elon Musk and Bill Gates

Thiel, who co-founded PayPal with Musk in 2000 before launching Palantir and becoming Facebook’s first outside investor, has maintained close ties to the Tesla and SpaceX CEO over the years. Musk, for his part, continues to donate through the Musk Foundation, which funds education, clean energy, and scientific research.

Elon Musk and Bill Gates’ relationship has taken a nosedive in recent years, especially amidst news that the Microsoft co-founder had taken a short bet against Tesla. Musk seemed to have taken Gates’ Tesla short personally, considering that the EV maker is fighting for sustainability, a cause that the Microsoft co-founder has supported. 

Gates has also been skeptical of Tesla’s projects such as the Tesla Semi, which Gates noted was not feasible due to the limitations of battery technology. More recently, the two billionaires butted heads when Gates claimed that the cuts initiated by Musk’s DOGE initiative would cost 2 million lives. In a post on X, Musk responded by stating that “Gates is a huge liar.”

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Tesla axed one of the Model Y’s best features in ‘Standard’ trims: here’s why

Lars Moravy explains why Tesla chose to go with a glass roof in the new Standard trims, despite it not being visible.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla chose to implement a glass roof on the new Model Y ‘Standard’, despite the fact that you won’t be able to see it from the inside.

In the new Model Y ‘Standard’ configuration, one of the biggest changes is the lack of a glass roof, which is one of the more unique features Tesla offers.

How Tesla’s Standard models will help deliveries despite price disappointment

The entire roof of the Model Y’s ‘Premium’ and Performance trims is glass, giving everyone in the car an astounding view of the sky.

However, Tesla chose to cover this up in the new ‘Standard’ trim level. Here’s a look at it:

Credit: ItsKimJava | X

Despite it not being visible from the inside, the roof is still made of glass. It is only visible from the outside. Even if you removed the headliner in the Model Y ‘Standard,’ you would not be able to see the outside, because the glass is opaque:

Tesla’s Vice President of Powertrain, Lars Moravy, commented on the use of glass in the Premium models and how it differs from the glass in the Standard trims:

“All glass is NOT created equal. Remember, the Model Y Premium glass is laminated with silver IR reflective coatings to make it super comfy and reject solar load… the standard is not… plus LOTS of people wanted a closed headliner, always trying to listen (and improve road noise at the same time).”

The decision to cover up the glass while still using it was an efficiency choice. Moravy said Tesla chose to keep the glass for the new Standard models due to “cost, supply chain, and manufacturing efficiency.”

Tesla launched the Standard models on Tuesday. The cars were effectively a counter to the loss of the $7,500 EV tax credit.

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How Tesla’s Standard models will help deliveries despite price disappointment

“What a giant miss,” one person said.

“With all due respect, no way is this what y’all have been hyping for 6 quarters…” another one claimed.

“So…where are the affordable models?” another reply read.

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Credit: Tesla

When Tesla unveiled its Standard versions of the Model 3 and Model Y this week, reactions were mixed. Many liked the addition of two new models, but they were also concerned about the price.

“What a giant miss,” one person said.

“With all due respect, no way is this what y’all have been hyping for 6 quarters…” another one claimed.

“So…where are the affordable models?” another reply read.

Tesla launches two new affordable models with ‘Standard’ Model 3, Y offerings

There’s no arguing it: $36,990 and $39,990 for the Model 3 Standard and Model Y Standard were not what consumers had in mind.

But, despite Tesla getting its new offerings to a price that is not necessarily as low as many expected, the two cars still have a chance to assist with quarterly deliveries.

Here’s how:

First-time Tesla buyers will lean toward Standard models

Tesla owners have become accustomed to expecting all the bells and whistles in their cars. Heated seats, ventilated seats, acoustic glass, vegan leather, industry-leading performance, world-class range, and a glass roof are all expected by current or past owners.

But what about new owners?

New owners do not have these high expectations, so to many of those who have not sat in a Tesla or driven one before, they are going to be blown away by the minimalistic looks, capabilities, and features of the Standard models.

The Premium models will feel like the high-end offerings that other automakers also have for sale, except they’ll only be a few thousand dollars more than Tesla’s base models. With other companies, the price for these higher-end trims is $10,000 or more.

The more affordable Standard models will be there, but if buyers want the extra features, they’ll likely be able to justify the extra few thousand dollars.

Tesla’s Standard Models fall under the U.S. Average Transaction Price

Kelley Blue Book releases a new report each month showing the average transaction price (ATP) of all vehicles sold in the U.S. for that month.

The latest report, released on September 10 for the month of August, revealed an ATP of $49,077. This was up 0.5% from July ($48,841) and higher year over year by 2.6%.

Technically, Tesla’s new Standard models fall well under that ATP, meaning they technically do qualify as “affordable.” However, realistically speaking, affordable does not mean “under the national average.”

It means accessible for low-income families, single-parent households, and other groups. This would likely be under $30,000.

Déjà Vu with the Cybertruck Rear-Wheel-Drive

When Tesla offered the Cybertruck RWD, it stripped out many of the best features of the Cybertruck, such as the adjustable air suspension, powered tonneau cover, and interior materials, just to name a few.

It was $10,000 less than the Cybertruck AWD, but many people essentially viewed it as a way to push consumers toward the more expensive variants, since the discount was a better value than missing out on features.

Tesla released the Cybertruck RWD to make the AWD look like a deal

Something similar could happen with the Standard models. With it only being a few thousand dollars less than the Premium Model 3 and Model Y, some consumers will see it as a better option to go with the more expensive trim levels.

Even if they don’t, many car buyers will see it as a deal to grab the Standard versions.

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