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SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft nears last parachute tests before astronaut launch debut
SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft is likely just a few weeks away from its last few parachute drop tests, the successful completion of which should give NASA all the technical data it needs to okay its astronaut launch debut.
After facing several major failures during intentionally challenging drop tests both last year and the year before, SpaceX and supplier Airborne have been working relentlessly to better understand the complex physics behind parachutes and then design and build better ones with that information.
Most recently, SpaceX has been aggressively testing the latest Mark 3 (Mk3) parachute variant with great success and has completed some two-dozen consecutively-successful drop tests since October 2019. Now, NASA and SpaceX are working together to settle on a design for two final Crew Dragon parachute tests, the results of which will almost certainly determine when the spacecraft’s astronaut launch debut will occur.
As previously discussed on Teslarati, SpaceX – in pursuit of the safest and most reliable spacecraft possible – has quite literally been pushing the envelope of parachute engineering and the immensely complex physics behind their behavior during deployment.
“According to NASA, the incredibly extensive testing SpaceX has had to do to satisfy the agency’s requirements has lead the company to develop “a better understanding of how to safely design and operate parachute clusters”. As of September 2019, SpaceX has reportedly completed 48 distinct parachute tests, of which one or two apparently failed.
In response to the additional testing and analysis NASA required after a recent April 2019 chute failure, SpaceX has essentially been forced to push the state of the art of parachute design and modeling to new levels. NASA says that SpaceX has begun to model certain conditions and newfound failure modes in ways that “provide a better understanding of parachute reliability” and have forced NASA to reevaluate its own standards and certification processes. Shown in the video above, SpaceX recently completed a successful parachute test identical to the attempt that failed in April 2019, a major step towards confirming that the new parachute analysis and design have mitigated prior faults.”
Teslarati.com — September 20th, 2019
Since that NASA report, SpaceX has – based on their own subsequent updates – completed no less than 24 successful Mk3 parachute tests, ranging from single-chute and chute-out tests to the full-fidelity spacecraft launch and recovery that followed Crew Dragon’s January 19th, 2020 In-Flight Abort (IFA) test.
NASA’s Wallops Twitter account has revealed Crew Dragon’s final two parachute tests will be performed with a C-130 cargo plane similar to the one pictured above during a previous SpaceX drop test, implying – unsurprisingly – that they will likely be as closed to full fidelity as possible. For unknown reasons, those final tests will be performed in Arizona instead of SpaceX’s usual California-based locations of choice.
Most likely, those tests will involve a Crew Dragon-shaped simulator that will perform drop tests as if it were a flightworthy spacecraft returning from space. That would involve fairly high-altitude drops in which the spacecraft simulator uses mortars to eject a hatch and deploy drogue chutes, stabilizing Crew Dragon’s orientation before four main chutes are carefully deployed a gentle splashdown or touchdown.
Ultimately, if those tests go exactly as planned and NASA is able to finish reams of paperwork in time, Crew Dragon could be ready for its astronaut launch debut (known as Demo-2) as early as late-April 2020, although May or June may be more practical. In doing so, SpaceX is all but certain to become the first private company in history to launch humans into orbit.
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Elon Musk
Tesla’s secretive “Project Crystal Sun” gets a big green light in Texas
Fort Bend County approved four incentive agreements Thursday for Tesla’s proposed $10.1 billion solar factory.
Fort Bend County commissioners on Thursday approved a package of tax incentives for Tesla’s proposed $10.1 billion solar cell factory near Needville, Texas, giving the company one of the last local approvals it needs before it decides where to build. All four Tesla agreements passed 4 to 0.
The votes covered a property tax abatement inside Reinvestment Zone No. 34, a Chapter 381 economic development agreement, a foreign trade zone non-objection paired with payments in lieu of certain taxes, and a separate payment in lieu of taxes “true up” agreement, according to agenda notes from the Fort Bend Commissioners Court meeting.
The project, known internally as “Project Crystal Sun,” would make solar cells and finished modules on roughly 3,000 acres near FM 762 and FM 1994, south of the Brazos River. As Teslarati reported when the filing first surfaced in August, Tesla’s application under the state’s JETI Act splits the investment into $1.5 billion in real property and $8.6 billion in equipment, with 9,712 permanent jobs projected by 2033 and commercial operations targeted for the first quarter of 2029. The plant would handle the full chain from ingot and wafer production through cell testing.
Inside Tesla’s secretive $10 Billion “Project Crystal Sun” filing
Thursday’s approval does not lock in the site. Tesla has told the Texas Comptroller it is still weighing other locations, and site selection adviser David Dennison told Lamar Consolidated ISD trustees in September that the race had narrowed to Fort Bend and one out of state rival with a “very compelling package,” according to the Houston Chronicle. Tesla hopes to decide before the end of 2026, and the incentives still need sign off from the Comptroller and the Governor’s office.
Local officials have now done nearly everything within their control. Commissioners created the reinvestment zone in an August 24 special meeting, with Interim County Judge Daniel Wong formally withdrawing himself over his engineering firm’s past work with Tesla. Lamar CISD trustees voted 7 to 0 on September 15 to advance a JETI agreement that would tax Tesla’s qualifying property at 50 percent of its value for maintenance and operations from 2029 through 2038.
The plant lines up with a target Elon Musk set on Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings call in January, when he said the company would “work toward getting 100 GW a year of solar cell production, integrating across the entire supply chain from raw materials all the way to finished solar panels.” In March, Tesla was reported to be negotiating a $2.9 billion purchase of Chinese solar manufacturing equipment bound for Texas. The Houston area already hosts Tesla’s Megafactory in Brookshire, where Megapack 3 production has started. Tesla said on its Q3 call that Megapack supply for 2027 is nearly sold out, and Musk wrote on X Thursday that the company is “increasing production of Megapacks as much as possible,” as demand from data centers climbs.
Tesla revealed plans to develop its own maps internally to fix Navigation issues and give owners more control over their routing.
On the company’s Q3 2026 Earnings Call, a question was asked about FSD Navigation issues, particularly speed limit recognition, parking, and routing. These are issues that surface from version to version and seem to be seriously challenging for Tesla’s AI team to resolve.
Tesla’s Head of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, said in response to the question:
“You’re totally right that we shouldn’t be depending on external people’s maps. So we are building our own maps, but not like the same way as OneMoreMap. We are building an entirely new architecture with essentially AI-based mapping and navigation.”
He continued:
“It’s going to be super awesome. It’s going to be integrated with voice. You can talk to it, ask for different routes. It’s going to learn your personalized preferences, plus the fleet preferences. The collective intelligence of all the cars is going to flow into making the maps and navigation super cool.”
Elluswamy said this issue should be confronted, and the mapping should be available for people by the time the v15 release starts deploying to customers.
“And over the next several months,” he added, “it’s just going to take over all of the navigation functions, parking, destination handling. And it will know you better than you know yourself in some regard for the driving task, and then handle it fully.”
Tesla Summon got insanely good in FSD v14.3.2 — Navigation? Not so much
Navigation is perhaps the most notable complaint with FSD, and although it has gotten better, it is still flawed. Much of the time, FSD will take people on routes that are not preferred by the driver, but Tesla tried to combat this with a routing feature in the Summer 2026 Update.
Tesla currently relies on Google for map data, but it is sort of counterintuitive to believe the company would rely on a third party for this. These improvements will be welcome, as routing and navigation have been such a pain point for so many owners for so long.
Quotes via Motley Fool
Tesla Full Self-Driving (Supervised) showed a record attach rate at delivery for new vehicles in the third quarter of 2026.
75 percent of new vehicle deliveries in North America included a subscription to FSD software, up from 55 percent in the prior quarter, a 20-percentage-point sequential gain in the company’s most mature market.
Tesla Q3 2026 Earnings results: in-line revenues, slight beat on EPS
Tesla shed light on the Q3 Shareholder Deck that 75 percent of new deliveries came with an FSD subscription:
“FSD (Supervised)⁴ attach rate continued to grow, reaching over 75% of new vehicle deliveries in North America – our most mature market – a nearly twenty percentage point sequential increase. We believe that FSD is driving demand in markets where it is available, and we continue to work with regulators to get it approved in other markets. “
The higher attach rate accompanied strong growth in the overall FSD consumer base, as active subscriptions rose to 1.75 million, a 67 percent year-over-year increase. For the first time, more than half of paid customers are on the monthly subscription, which is priced at $99 per month in the U.S.
People are buying FSD with a car attached, not the other way around
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 21, 2026
The transition to subscriptions has accelerated since Tesla discontinued the one-time purchase option in most markets earlier this year. The recurring model improves revenue visibility and margins compared with large upfront payments. With three-quarters of North American deliveries now including FSD, the software is now an evidently large contributor to Tesla’s economics and ancillary revenue.
Geographic expansion remains important for further gains. FSD is now available in nine countries in the EU, and more than 100,000 customers have driven over 160 million kilometers. Tesla is pursuing broader EU-wide approval, with a related vote expected in December. Similar progress in additional markets could support higher attach rates beyond North America.
These results came as Tesla had a strong quarterly delivery performance of 486,532 vehicles in the quarter, which came with its largest passenger-vehicle backlog in four years. Battery supply continued to limit volume, but the company has pointed to FSD as a clear difference-maker that is helping sustain demand. As supervised capabilities improve, the attach rate will likely continue to improve.
At face value, it is a key measure of how Tesla is converting sales into autonomy progress.
Tesla’s secretive “Project Crystal Sun” gets a big green light in Texas
Tesla is building its own maps to fix Navigation issues
