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SpaceX director says six Crew Dragon launches per year is a sustainable goal
A senior manager says that SpaceX could sustainably launch six or more Crew Dragons per year if the market for private missions grows large enough to demand it.
Benji Reed, Senior Director of Human Spaceflight Programs, offered his thoughts on the matter in a press conference following SpaceX’s successfully recovery of Crew Dragon and four private Axiom-1 astronauts from the Gulf of Mexico, marking the end of the first all-private mission to the International Space Station (ISS). Asked what kind of launch cadence SpaceX believes it could handle going forward, Reed stated that he “would love to see…half a dozen crew flights…or more” per year and believes that “SpaceX can sustain that [pace] if there’s a market for it.”
The question is an important one after a SpaceX executive confirmed to Reuters earlier this year that the company has already ended production of Crew Dragon after building just a handful of reusable capsules. With that fleet of four spacecraft, it hasn’t been clear how many crewed missions SpaceX can – or thinks it can – launch each year. To some extent, it’s long been expected that SpaceX would try to replace both Falcon rockets and Dragon spacecraft with Starship as soon as the next-generation fully-reusable rocket is ready.
However, without major redesigns or a new and heavily modified variant of the rocket’s upper stage, it’s difficult to imagine NASA transitioning its International Space Station astronaut launches from Dragon to Starship anytime soon. Even though Starship could feasibly revolutionize spaceflight and NASA has already contracted with SpaceX to build a version of the rocket to land NASA astronauts on the Moon, the one thing it’s hard to imagine the space agency ever compromising on is safety. Crew Dragon has a built-in launch escape system that allows the capsule to almost instantly whisk astronauts away from a failing rocket at any point before or during a launch.
Starship has no such escape system and SpaceX has no apparent plans to develop a variant of the crew-carrying ship with a comparable abort system. Because the Starship rocket’s second stage is the orbital spacecraft, crew cabin, and reentry vehicle, it simply isn’t possible for the current design of the next-generation vehicle to match the theoretical safety of Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon. CEO Elon Musk has discussed increasing the number of engines on Starship to allow it to escape from a failing booster but that would leave astronauts with no way to escape from the upper stage itself.
On top of Dragon’s fundamentally superior safety capabilities, Falcon 9 also has an extraordinary record of 125 consecutively successful launches. If NASA wouldn’t let Dragon launch its astronauts on Falcon 9 without an active escape system, it’s hard to imagine how many consecutive launch successes Starship would need before the agency would even think about retiring Crew Dragon.
This is all to say that SpaceX is likely going to be stuck operating Crew Dragon for the indefinite future as long as it’s too stubborn to develop a true launch escape system for Starship. Even though the recently announced Polaris Program aims to culminate in the “first flight of Starship with humans on board,” it’s likely that most private SpaceX crew launch customers will follow NASA’s lead.
Thankfully, even with four Crew Dragon capsules, it’s likely that SpaceX can manage significantly more than six crewed missions per year if the demand is there and commercial passengers – mirroring NASA – aren’t ready to risk flying on Starship. Already, SpaceX has successfully launched the same Crew Dragon capsule to orbit twice in 137 days. If SpaceX continues flying back-to-back NASA crew transport missions while Boeing’s Starliner inches through qualification, that will tie up two Dragons per year, limiting SpaceX to two launches for NASA and around four to five private astronaut launches per year.
Assuming Starliner finally reaches operational readiness and begins supporting every other NASA crew launch, SpaceX could feasibly launch one NASA mission and seven private missions (lasting up to two weeks each) per year by the end of 2023. Additionally, if SpaceX can improve Crew Dragon turnaround to 120 days, the fleet could support 10 crew launches per year. 90 days? 13 launches per year. Private missions to the ISS would add plenty of schedule constraints, reducing the total number of opportunities, but that’s a minor problem in comparison.
The only lingering technical concern, then, is the longevity of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon capsule fleet. SpaceX and NASA have initially certified each capsule for five missions, but after Crew-4’s April 27th launch, the fleet has already eaten up 7 of the 20 flights that limit permits. Assuming no additional demand for private launches, the remaining 13 ‘certified’ flights might last SpaceX through 2024. Sooner than later, with NASA’s blessing, it will either need to significantly increase the number of missions each capsule is certified to fly, build new capsules, or find a way to transition to Starship.
In a bold declaration on X, xAI CEO Elon Musk announced that its model will be capable of creating full movies by the end of the year. Quoting an xAI post showcasing a stunning AI-generated trailer for Homer’s The Odyssey, Musk simply stated: “Full movies by the end of the year.”
The quoted video, created entirely with the newly released Grok Imagine Video 1.5, demonstrates the rapid strides in AI video generation. Crafted by creator David Thompson, the 2-minute-plus trailer reimagines the ancient epic in the style of a 1970s classical Hollywood blockbuster. It features 36 meticulously consistent shots that form a cohesive narrative world.
Full movies by the end of this year https://t.co/kkBrngWA0X
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 17, 2026
Its realistic nature is truly mind-blowing, and it’s pretty amazing to think that it cool to think it could create an entire movie soon.
The trailer reimagines The Odyssey as a whole, and opens with a concept board outlining the vision: a retelling of the story using 35mm film aesthetics, classical framing, and other elements.
There are a handful of things that truly outline Grok’s capabilities:
- Scale and Physics: A bloodied Spartan helmet rests on a sandy battlefield amid smoke, marching armies, and flocks of birds. Horses gallop, chariots charge, and warriors clash with believable weight and motion.
- Emotional Depth and Dialogue: Close-ups capture intense expressions, as characters deliver lines like a warrior’s grief-stricken speech on a rocking ship.
- Cinematic Workflow: It’s hard to believe AI created this trailer, as editing and suspense are clearly detailed in this trailer
Now, why is this a big deal? AI has been a real threat to the way movies have been made over the past several decades. It’s no secret that the various AI platforms out there are becoming more capable, but Musk has said that he believes things would be “watchable” by the end of this year, and by the end of 2027, Grok would be able to create “really good” movies.
There are several issues that remain, most notably the ability to remain cohesive throughout the length of a film, energy requirements, copyright questions for training data, and artistic intent. Hollywood has created some of the greatest cinematic masterpieces over the past 100 years, but 2026 could be the year AI not only assists but also independently authors cinema.
Tesla is continuing to push the boundaries of vehicle dynamics, as its latest published patent, US12654505B2, or “Suspension Actuator System for a Vehicle,’ which has finally been pushed through.
The design, which is credited to inventors Brian Lee Doorlag, Avraham Kagan, and Justin Sill, introduces a sophisticated hybrid suspension design that blends active motor-driven control with strategic passive elements to deliver superior ride quality, energy efficiency, and resilience against road imperfections, especially potholes.
Suspension Actuator System for a Vehicle@Tesla‘s US20240383297A1 patent introduces an innovative suspension actuator system that transforms vehicle suspension control through an intelligent combination of active and passive control elements.
By implementing both series and… https://t.co/vRvlOu3Dql pic.twitter.com/2WriXgpOvr
— SETI Park (@seti_park) November 27, 2024
At the heart of the system is an active control element powered by an electric motor. This motor drives a belt connected to a ball nut assembly and threaded screw, which adjusts the effective length of the suspension strut in real time.
By extending or retracting, the actuator can lift or lower the wheel more accurately, which can end up countering road disturbances. Sensors, including accelerometers and wheel position monitors, feed data to a suspension control system that processes inputs and commands the motor instantly.
This active component doesn’t work alone. A low-rate air spring mounts in parallel with the actuator. Its primary role is to offset much of the vehicle’s static weight, dramatically reducing the power demand on the motor.
Without this, the active system would constantly fight gravity, draining energy and generating heat. The air spring handles steady-state loads efficiently, allowing the motor to focus on dynamic adjustments.
Complementing this is a series of passive control elements—a spring and an adaptive damper—placed between the actuator and the wheel. This setup filters high-frequency vibrations before they reach the active motor, preventing it from overworking on minor inputs. The adaptive damper, potentially magnetorheological or valve-controlled, further tunes damping electronically for optimal comfort and stability.
How It Differs from Traditional Suspensions
Traditional passive suspensions compromise between comfort and handling, while pure active systems can be power-hungry and complex. Tesla’s hybrid approach resolves this by delegating tasks: the parallel air spring manages weight and low-frequency body motions, the series elements absorb rapid vibrations, and the active actuator tackles larger, lower-frequency events.
The result is a smoother, more isolated cabin experience. High-frequency road noise and harshness diminish, while the vehicle maintains precise control during cornering or acceleration. Energy efficiency improves, too—lower motor loads mean reduced battery drain, potentially extending range in electric vehicles.
How It Mitigates Potholes Specifically
Potholes are a major challenge because they provide a sudden drop to the wheel plunge, jarring the body of the vehicle, risking damage. The patent explicitly addresses this. Upon detecting a pothole (via sensors or predictive mapping), the control system activates
the motor to retract the strut, effectively pulling the wheel upward to minimize downward excursion. The series spring/damper cushions the impact, while the parallel air spring maintains overall support.
This proactive “wheel retraction” prevents sharp jolts, preserving passenger comfort and protecting components. Integrated with Tesla’s road roughness mapping patents, the system could anticipate potholes from fleet data, enabling preemptive adjustments for even smoother navigation.
Future Implications for Tesla Vehicles
This technology builds on Tesla’s existing adaptive dampers and air suspension that is seen in Cybertruck, but advances toward fully active control. It could roll out to future models, including refreshed Cybertrucks or next-gen vehicles, enhancing both daily drivability and off-road capability. By minimizing power use and complexity, it aligns with Tesla’s goals of efficiency and scalability.
In summary, US12654505B2 exemplifies Tesla’s engineering philosophy: intelligent integration over brute force. This hybrid suspension promises quieter, more comfortable rides and robust pothole defense, potentially setting a new standard for automotive comfort. As Tesla iterates, drivers can look forward to roads feeling far less rough.
The Tesla Cybercab got a huge nod of support from a Texas Department of Transportation official, who said the all-electric ride-hailing vehicle is “a tangible example of how quickly our transportation system is evolving.”
The Cybercab was present at the Texas Department of Transportation’s Texas Innovation Invitational, an event held each year that allows innovative companies to showcase advancements in transportation.
Tesla Cybercab specs revealed: range, curb weight, range ratings, and more
Marc Williams, the Texas Department of Transportation’s Executive Director, sat in a Cybercab and shared his thoughts in an extensive post on LinkedIn.
Williams’s comments show how Tesla, with its Cybercab, is leading the charge of passenger travel and how it’s changing so rapidly. He notes the absence of traditional driving controls as a telltale sign that the Cybercab is a catalyst for major automotive change, taking controls from drivers and turning them into full-time passengers.
“Observing this vehicle firsthand–from its design and butterfly doors to the cargo trunk configuration–provides a tangible example of how quickly our transportation system is evolving. Sitting inside the cabin, the complete absence of traditional driver controls underscores a significant shift in mobility and vehicle design. No steering wheel, no accelerator, no brake. Only a single touchscreen monitor.”
Tesla has had a great relationship with the State of Texas, especially with its Robotaxi ambitions. Currently, Texas has Tesla Robotaxi operating in multiple cities: Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, and Houston. The company’s main manufacturing plant is also located just outside Austin, and Tesla moved its headquarters to the state several years ago.
Texas DOT Executive Director Marc Williams experienced the production version of @Tesla CyberCab firsthand earlier today at the 2026 Texas Innovation Invitational #CyberCab #FSD @SawyerMerritt @TeslaNewswire pic.twitter.com/izoGOWaGz6
— Ash_Alpha (@durai_ashwin08) June 17, 2026
The Cybercab is a purpose-built, fully autonomous, two-passenger Robotaxi vehicle designed specifically for ride-hailing services. Tesla has said for years it would be built without a steering wheel or pedals present, although there is still quite a bit of debate among the community regarding that potential.
Earlier this week, we received official word that the EPA had provided the Cybercab with a Certificate of Conformity, giving Tesla permission to enter the vehicle into the chain of public commerce. It is officially ready for roads.
The big question for Tesla remains: Can it solve self-driving before the steering-wheel-less Cybercab officially enters production?
Elon Musk predicts Grok will start to challenge Hollywood by the end of 2026
Tesla patent aims to improve common on-road complaint
