SpaceX
SpaceX’s Crew Dragon flawlessly docks with space station in spectacular orbital debut
Nearly half a decade and millions of hours of work have finally paid off after SpaceX’s Crew Dragon pulled off a flawless orbital debut, launching atop the first crew-rated Falcon 9 and docking with the International Space Station (ISS) a little over 24 hours later.
For what CEO Elon Musk described as a spacecraft with barely a part shared with the company’s already operational Cargo Dragon, such an unremarkable (in terms of surprises) launch debut is a massive achievement that speaks directly to the success of the NASA-SpaceX partnership and the exhaustive design, testing, and optimization directed at Crew Dragon. Having now completed two major trials – launch and docking – for DM-1, the spacecraft’s third and final hurdle will occur on March 8th when it attempts to safely return to Earth.
SpaceX team in Hawthorne control, Dragon docked to Station above pic.twitter.com/JUWkOrWjsH
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 3, 2019
Beginning around 3:30 am and lasting til 10:45 am EST (08:30-15:45 UTC), SpaceX and NASA employees hosted live coverage of Crew Dragon’s inaugural visit to the International Space Station (ISS), a process that included multiple demonstrations of the spacecraft’s ability to approach, halt, and reverse. Almost ten minutes ahead of schedule, Crew Dragon successfully docked with the ISS in a first for SpaceX, having previously only conducted berthings with its Cargo Dragon vehicle.
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- From render…
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- to reality. (SpaceX/NASA)
Having also debuted a previously untested docking adapter (the International Docking Adapter, IDA), the Station’s three astronauts worked to open Dragon’s hatch, a task which they completed an hour or two after “capture”. This was rapidly followed by the astronauts entering SpaceX’s Crew Dragon, another historic first for the crew-rated spacecraft. They were greeted by Ripley (also known as Starwoman) and what Anne McClain described as small Earth, the stuffed globe that was included partially as a joke and a “super high tech zero-g indicator” according to Musk. After determining that Crew Dragon’s atmosphere was non-toxic, the astronauts removed breathing masks and returned to the capsule’s interior to formally welcome it to the ISS as the world’s newest orbital spacecraft, as well as the first commercially-developed vehicle meant to carry humans into orbit.
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The dawn of a new era in human spaceflight pic.twitter.com/BHsfg1zYLN
— COL Anne McClain (@AstroAnnimal) March 3, 2019
While it may be unintuitive, the two dozen or so relatively slow and quiet hours that followed Crew Dragon’s launch were and remain far more important, and the spacecraft’s flawless on-orbit performance has thus far retired a huge number of concerns front and center for the first true launch of any spacecraft, let alone one designed specifically to carry astronauts and keep them safe. Thus far, Crew Dragon has done exactly that, approaching the ISS and docking with nary a hiccup, as if the rendezvous was the umpteenth and nothing out of the ordinary.
Technical achievements aside, the live coverage of Crew Dragon’s patient approach was perhaps some of the most spectacular and emotionally compelling content yet provided by SpaceX and NASA. At one point, as orbital sunset neared, a NASA ground controller requested that the spacecraft’s onboard spotlight be enabled to continue the docking approach, to which the SpaceX engineer hosting the webcast remarked on just how incredible and surreal it was to watch Crew Dragon methodically approach the station from less than 100 feet away. In fact, he had apparently spent “months” with that very same LED spotlight array on his desk, working to build, qualify, and test it to ensure that the light system was ready for spaceflight, just one of hundreds or thousands of seemingly minute details that one or several employees spent major portions of their lives working on.
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- A live view of the ISS from cameras aboard Crew Dragon. (NASA/SpaceX)
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- A better view of the solar array half of Crew Dragon’s trunk section. (NASA)
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Come launch and on-orbit operations, SpaceX and NASA employees across the US hung on this mission’s every step with a singular nervousness, focus, and pride that easily beat even the buzz that surrounded Falcon Heavy’s iconic launch debut. Humanity as a whole may have paid significantly less attention to Crew Dragon’s launch debut, but almost every SpaceX employee appeared readily cognizant of the fact that this mission symbolized something radically more important and more fundamental to the company. Founded to ultimately help humanity take permanent steps beyond Earth orbit, Crew Dragon’s thus far flawless debut brings SpaceX as close as its ever been to shouldering the heavy responsibility of launching humans into space, be they NASA astronauts, paying tourists, or Martian hopefuls.
If all continues to proceed apace, DM-1 will conclude with Crew Dragon’s first orbital-velocity reentry on March 8th. Pending that capsules refurbishment and an equally bug-free in-flight abort test NET April to June, SpaceX and NASA could conduct the first crewed launch of Crew Dragon less than six months from now in July 2019. Much work lies ahead and delays are undeniably possible (if not probably), but – as they say – so far, so good.
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Elon Musk
SpaceX’s next trillion dollar bet has nothing to do with rockets, Musk tells staff
Elon Musk told SpaceX staff AI revenue will soon dwarf rockets and Starlink combined entirely.
Elon Musk told SpaceX employees this week that artificial intelligence, not rockets, will soon carry the company’s revenue. In a roughly 29 minute internal address posted on SpaceX’s X account on Tuesday, Musk said AI revenue will pass every other line of business at SpaceX “probably in September” and pull further ahead by the fourth quarter.
The numbers he gave are specific. SpaceX currently runs 1.4 gigawatts of AI compute capacity. Musk wants that at 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027, a jump he tied directly to revenue: “if we bring 10GW of AI online by the end of next year, it will be $300 billion to $500 billion a year in revenue.” He called those “big numbers,” which undersells a projection larger than what most countries produce in a year.
We made rockets reusable and are rebuilding the internet in space. The next challenge: making life multiplanetary and understanding the true nature of the universe
Watch @ElonMusk deliver a company update to @SpaceX employees pic.twitter.com/5c8rxoCQfu
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) August 11, 2026
Musk went further on where AI fits into SpaceX’s future. “Probably in four or five years, AI will be 99% of the value of SpaceX,” he told staff, adding that digital intelligence would eventually run “a trillion times” ahead of biological intelligence as computing scales. He tied that growth to the company’s founding mission, telling employees “we must win on AI, because the future is overwhelmingly AI and robots,” with the payoff meant to help fund Starship and a Mars program that increasingly runs through Terafab, the joint Tesla, SpaceX and xAI chip plant.
Elon Musk launches TERAFAB: The $25B Tesla-SpaceXAI chip factory that will rewire the AI industry
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None of this is entirely new territory. SpaceX told investors much the same story during its first earnings call as a public company on August 4, where Musk moved the company’s $1 trillion revenue target up a year to 2030 and said Starlink could someday carry a majority of the world’s internet. What the all hands video adds is a hard deadline and a specific power figure Musk had not given publicly before, along with a franker pitch to his own workforce that AI, not launch cadence, is now the thing SpaceX is betting its future on.
The AI revenue itself is not coming from SpaceX training its own models. It is largely Starlink acting as the network layer for xAI’s workloads, plus SpaceX renting out compute capacity directly, the same approach behind the roughly $16 billion the company spent on AI infrastructure in a single quarter.
Musk closed the video with a pitch aimed at recruiting and retention rather than investors, telling employees that anyone who helps SpaceX win the AI race will eventually get the chance to go to the moon or Mars themselves. Whether SpaceX can turn 1.4 gigawatts into 10 in seventeen months is the more immediate question, and one that will show up in quarterly numbers well before anyone leaves Earth.
SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.
The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.
Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.
There are plenty of ways the company can do this:
Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts
SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.
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High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity
The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.
Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.
Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.
High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online
GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.
Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications
Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.
These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.
Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages
SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.
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Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.
SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.
Elon Musk
Another Tesla SpaceX merger prediction by ARK Invest has Elon Musk talking
Elon Musk again denies a Tesla China split as new SpaceX merger speculation resurfaces quickly.
Elon Musk restated that Tesla has no plans to separate its China business from the rest of the company, responding to a new round of merger speculation from ARK Invest.
On the firm’s “Brainstorm” podcast, Cathie Wood’s team, including chief futurist Brett Winton and research director Nick Grous, argued a Tesla and SpaceX combination remains likely, with an announcement possible before the end of the year even if the deal itself would not close that quickly. Winton called Tesla’s Shanghai operations a “small ish wrinkle” for a merger rather than a real obstacle, since SpaceX’s national security work with the U.S. government sits uneasily next to Tesla’s manufacturing base in China.
Musk pushed back on the framing directly. “China is awesome. I strongly encourage people to visit,” he wrote on X. He also repeated language he first used in late July, when the Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla executives had been told to prepare for a possible spinoff, sale, or closure of the China business ahead of a SpaceX tie up. Musk called that report “absurdly fake news” at the time, adding that a separation had “never even come up in a discussion ever,” a line he echoed again this week.
The repeated denial has not settled the underlying question, because Shanghai’s role in Tesla’s business is exactly what makes a merger complicated. Gigafactory Shanghai still ships more than half of Tesla’s global deliveries and functions as the company’s main export hub for Europe and Asia. Teslarati previously reported on Musk’s initial denial, and the merger conversation itself has been building since SpaceX’s IPO gave it public shares to use as acquisition currency.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives has pegged the odds of a Tesla SpaceX merger at 80 to 90 percent by early 2027, and ARK’s prediction of a year end announcement adds another data point to that timeline, even as Musk keeps rejecting the specific mechanics reporters have described. Neither position rules out the other. Musk can deny a China spinoff was ever discussed while analysts still expect some form of combination to move forward, since ARK and Ives are both describing convergence at the corporate level, not necessarily the internal restructuring the Journal described in July.
For now, Tesla’s China business remains intact, and Musk’s comments this week make clear he has no interest in publicly walking that position back, no matter how often the merger question resurfaces.
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Tesla CEO Elon Musk says flying cars are coming
SpaceX’s next trillion dollar bet has nothing to do with rockets, Musk tells staff
