SpaceX
SpaceX’s Crew Dragon one step closer to human spaceflight after flawless launch
SpaceX has completed the first half of its critical Crew Dragon test flight, launching the brand new spacecraft into low Earth orbit (LEO) on the back of one of its workhorse Falcon 9 rockets. The rocket performed nominally, successfully sending the human-rated vehicle on its way towards the International Space Station (ISS).
Scheduled to dock with the ISS as early as 6 am EST (13:00 UTC) March 3rd, Crew Dragon will now face the real challenge of this demonstration mission, successfully operating in orbit and autonomously docking with the ISS. Along the way, SpaceX will be flight-testing a number of technologies and systems new to the company, while also providing reams of data that will help both SpaceX and NASA determine whether Crew Dragon performed as intended and is truly ready to carry astronauts into orbit.
https://twitter.com/_TomCross_/status/1101764440800878593
While this successful launch is a critical milestone for DM-1, Crew Dragon, SpaceX, and NASA, it’s hard to say there is anything particularly shocking about its successful completion. Including this launch, SpaceX has now successfully launched Falcon 9 42 times in a row since January 2017, including seven orbital launches and ISS missions with Cargo Dragon, a heavily proven spacecraft with 16 successful missions since its 2012 debut. Put simply, SpaceX has an incredibly dense volume of experience successfully launching, landing, recovering, and refurbishing orbital-class rockets and spacecraft, as well as a proven track record of success and an ability to confront and move past challenging vehicle failures.
Crew Dragon demo mission (DM-1) is set to launch early tomorrow morning, March 2, at 2:49 a.m. EST from Kennedy Space Center. What an absolutely breathtaking scene at LC-39A. #spacex #nasa #CrewDragon #falcon9 pic.twitter.com/T95wCumGzq
— Pauline Acalin (@w00ki33) March 1, 2019
Crew Dragon’s successful launch is no less of a major achievement, even if it was about as much of a known quantity as any other Falcon 9 mission. The real challenge ahead of the spacecraft is successfully demonstrating the efficacy of its design and operations in space, particularly while interacting and docking with the ISS. Prior to tomorrow morning, all SpaceX Dragons have berthed with the ISS, meaning that they effectively come up from underneath the ISS (a lower orbit), stop a few meters away, and are ‘grappled’ by a large robotic arm (known as Canadarm2) that also attaches the spacecraft to a docking port. If – at any point during the pre-berthing approach – Cargo Dragon were to lose control, the spacecraft would essentially fall back down the gravitational hill it had just climbed, a built-in abort that would nominally prevent the spacecraft from impacting the Station in most failure scenarios.
The launch of Crew Dragon demo (DM-1) as seen from the roof of NASA’s Vehicle Assembly Building. What a powerful and moving mission. Another step closer! #spacex #nasa #CrewDragon pic.twitter.com/aWIPtDcVir
— Pauline Acalin (@w00ki33) March 2, 2019
Crew Dragon, on the other hand, has been designed to dock with the ISS. Generally speaking, this means that the spacecraft will approach the Station side-on, as if it were a car accelerating faster than another car in the same ‘lane’. While there are many built-in points during the docking approach where Crew Dragon will halt all forward movement, the differing docking approach means that any loss of control or contact while on a vector towards the ISS could mean that it is unable to abort, significantly increasing the likelihood of an impact event in worst-case scenarios. While Crew Dragon is designed with extreme redundancy and fault-tolerance in mind, the stakes are definitively higher compared to Cargo Dragon.
Liftoff of Dragon 2 at 2:49am! SpaceX’s first flight of their new capsule preparing to take astronauts back to the International Space Station from American soil.
See the full launch gallery and support NASAspaceflight by subscribing to L2: https://t.co/whUFQd0FNU pic.twitter.com/TIhJxCSM8j
— Brady Kenniston (@TheFavoritist) March 2, 2019
Conscious of this fact, the new spacecraft will be tasked with completing a significant number of on-orbit maneuvers to verify nominal performance before allowing the autonomous vehicle to attempt a docking with the ISS. While that docking attempt is scheduled to occur as early as 6 am EST (13:00 UTC), live coverage – hosted by both NASA and SpaceX – will begin around 3:30 am EST (10:30 UTC) on Sunday, March 3rd. While these on-orbit webcasts can admittedly be rather dry compared to the thrill of launch, it will arguably be the most significant and mission-critical portion of Crew Dragon’s launch debut, alongside the spacecraft’s safe reentry and Atlantic Ocean landing and recovery. Follow along live at spacex.com/webcast.
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Investor's Corner
SpaceX gets initial stock coverage from Tesla’s biggest bull
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
Elon Musk
Tesla Phone? Not quite, but close: analyst
For years, there have been images and videos across social media platforms that have reminded me of when I was a 15-year-old kid teased by “Xbox 720” videos on YouTube. These videos are of the supposed “Tesla Phone” that Elon Musk was secretly developing in between leading Tesla with its electric cars and SpaceX with its reusable rockets.
Would you buy a Tesla phone ? pic.twitter.com/aaTwvvIJit
— Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) October 6, 2023
Although Musk has put those rumors to bed several times, it was never completely out of the realm that he could get involved in cell phones in some capacity. Think outside the box and more macro-level, though. Instead of reinventing the computer, Musk reinvented connectivity by developing Starlink with SpaceX.
It could be something similar, TD Cowen analyst Gregory Williams said in a note last week, where he hinted SpaceX could be gathering some steam to acquire T-Mobile.
Williams said it would be the “clear choice” for SpaceX if it decided to go through with a network acquisition. He also suggested AT&T.
The move would be possible through selling more of its own stock, which would help SpaceX raise the money to purchase T-Mobile, which would cost roughly $300 billion. It could be one of the moves SpaceX makes post-IPO in terms of an acquisition: it already acquired Cursor AI for $60 billion.
Other analysts, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, believe SpaceX and Tesla will eventually merge into one anyway, and that conglomeration could come as soon as this year, some have said.
The implications of SpaceX purchasing T-Mobile are massive. A combined entity would create a truly ubiquitous network: T-Mobile’s terrestrial 5G towers and Starlink’s growing constellation of Direct-to-Cell satellites. This would essentially eliminate dead zones across the U.S. and potentially globally.
SpaceX would instantly become a full-scale facilities-based carrier with satellite differentiation; a huge advantage. This would pressure AT&T and Verizon heavily.
There are also concerns like a potential reduction in long-term competition, and of course, a deal of that size would face intense scrutiny from government agencies.
The strategic fit is compelling due to the existing Starlink–T-Mobile partnership and complementary technologies (space + terrestrial). It could create a dominant integrated communications player. However, the regulatory, financial, and execution hurdles are enormous — this remains highly speculative with no indication SpaceX is actively pursuing it right now.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s newest Starmind will make earth data centers obsolete
Elon Musk confirmed Starmind as SpaceX’s AI satellite constellation name, targeting one million orbital compute nodes.
Elon Musk confirmed that Starmind will be the official name of SpaceX’s planned AI satellite constellation, following a trademark filing by xAI that surfaced earlier this week. Starmind is what’s being described to the FCC as a constellation of up to one million AI satellites
It’s worth noting that SpaceX’s Starlink communication satellite and Starmind are built on the same orbital infrastructure concept but serve entirely different purposes. Starlink is a connectivity network, with satellites receiving and relaying data between points on Earth, and functioning as a high-speed internet backbone in space. The satellites themselves do not process or think, and move information from one place to another, the same function a fiber cable performs underground.
SpaceX just forced Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile to team up for the first time in history
Starmind, on the other hand, is something completely different, and tather than moving data, its satellites would compute data through artificial intelligence and directly in orbit using onboard processors powered by large solar arrays. Where a Starlink satellite is essentially a very fast pipe, a Starmind satellite is a server. The practical implication is that Starmind would allow AI models to run inference, process queries, and generate outputs from space, then beam results down to users anywhere on Earth within milliseconds, and without the data ever needing to travel to a terrestrial data center.
Starship will be able to carry 30 to 50 AI1 satellites per launch, delivering the equivalent of dozens of server racks per flight, with no land acquisition, no power grid approval, and no cooling infrastructure required on the ground.
SpaceX is pursuing this new technology as terrestrial data centers are running into hard limits such as lack of physical space, community opposition, and power and water consumption at a scale that is increasingly difficult to permit. Space has unlimited solar power, natural vacuum cooling, and no zoning boards. Musk said in a June 8 video presentation that he expects space to become the lowest-cost location to deploy AI compute within two to three years. Two AI1 prototypes are scheduled to launch in early 2027, with volume production targeted for the end of that year at a new facility called Gigasat.
The real world applications Starmind enables extend well beyond powering Grok. A constellation of orbiting AI processors could run inference workloads for any paying customer, anywhere on Earth, with latency measured in milliseconds rather than the seconds associated with ground-based cloud routing across continents. Starmind, if it scales as described, would make SpaceX the landlord of AI compute the same way Starlink made it the landlord of satellite internet.








