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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk forecasts a dozen Starship launches next year

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CEO Elon Musk has provided a small update on SpaceX’s next-generation Starship rocket in a brief statement to and Q&A with the board of the US National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine.

While it’s now been more than two years since Musk last gave a proper presentation on the Starship program, a number of excellent questions from board members still managed to extract a handful of new details about the fully reusable rocket, which the SpaceX CEO says aims to “be a generalized transport mechanism for the [entire] solar system.” According to Musk, though, the most pressing near-term issues facing SpaceX are more down to Earth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLydXZOo4eA

Reiterated several times in his comments to the National Academies, Musk says that the current limiting factor for Starship is securing regulatory approvals from the FAA for the rocket’s first orbital test flights, which SpaceX and Musk initially hoped would begin as early as mid-2021. Targets from July to November 2021 have since come and gone, while SpaceX has only begun to make concerted progress towards Starship’s first orbital launch in the last two or so months. Almost two months after its first rollout, Starship S20 – the first orbital-class prototype – began integrated testing, completing ambient and cryogenic proof tests in late September and its first Raptor preburner and static fire tests in the second half of October.

Most recently, after almost a month spent inactive at SpaceX’s Starbase test facilities, Starship S20 fired up all six of its Raptor engines – the first test of its kind and a major milestone for the program. Save for the completion of some relatively simple closeout tasks, Starship S20 is now more or less qualified for flight after its successful static fire. That leaves Super Heavy Booster 4 (B4) – the first stage meant to carry Ship 20 into space – up next on SpaceX’s South Texas testing docket after almost four agonizing months spent sitting, untested, at various Starbase facilities.

Musk says that SpaceX preparing to complete “a bunch of tests in December” with the implication that those tests likely include the first full Super Heavy wet dress rehearsal (WDR) with thousands of tons of live propellant and the first several booster static fire tests. Recently refitted with 29 Raptor engines for the third time in four months, it appears that SpaceX is finally close to finishing Super Heavy B4 to a point that will allow the booster to begin integrated testing. Through Super Heavy B3, which completed testing this summer, SpaceX thankfully already knows that the basic booster design is a structurally sound pressure vessel with plumbing and systems capable of surviving a three-Raptor static fire.

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Super Heavy B3 completed a very limited test campaign in July 2021. (SpaceX)

Still, that’s barely more than 10% of the total number of engines Super Heavy will need operational to send Starship to orbit. After months at the pad, SpaceX is finally closing out Booster 4’s aft section and installing a basic heat shield around its 29 Raptor engines, which will produce up to ~5400 metric tons (~12M lbf) of thrust at liftoff – more than any other rocket in history. Following Starship S20’s recent success, SpaceX has now fired six Raptors simultaneously and in close proximity without issue. However, Super Heavy B4 will have to fire 29 engines packed into roughly the same amount of space. No other liquid rocket stage in history has a more densely-packed thrust section, averaging at least 85 tons of thrust per square meter (~125 psi) of available engine space.

It’s thus likely that SpaceX will split Super Heavy B4’s first static fire campaign into several different parts, possibly involving seperate tests of the center cluster of nine Raptor Center (RC) engines and outer ring of 20 Raptor Boost (RB) engines before firing up all 29 together. Even if that testing is completed without issue on the first attempts, SpaceX will still likely want to perform a full wet dress rehearsal – and possibly even another 29-engine static fire – with Ship 20 installed on top of Booster 4.

Musk also believes that Starbase’s first orbital launch site will be complete as early as “later this month” – essential for full booster testing. Once all testing is complete, Musk says Starship, Super Heavy, and Starbase should be ready for their first orbital launch attempt as early as January or February 2022. Of course, that launch is entirely contingent upon FAA environmental approval and launch licensing, the former still incomplete and the latter unable to proceed until the former is complete. If the FAA reaches a favorable conclusion, meets its recently-announced target of December 31st to complete Starbase’s environmental review, and grants SpaceX a new launch license just days or a few weeks later, a January-February launch isn’t out of the question.

Looking further into 2022, Musk also revealed that he hopes SpaceX will complete “a dozen [Starship] launches” next year – incredibly ambitious by any measure. There isn’t a rocket in history that’s achieved double-digit launches in the same year as its debut. More importantly, even if the FAA environmental review SpaceX is in the middle of ends with the best possible outcome for Starship, it limits the company to either 3, 5, or 8 (it’s somewhat ambiguous) orbital launch attempts per year. Still, even a ‘mere’ three orbital Starship launch attempts in 2022 would be an incredible acheivement for SpaceX – let alone five, or Musk’s forecast of a dozen.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Rivian and Amazon announce huge milestone with EDV

The companies announced today that they had officially launched the EDV in Canada for Amazon, as the first 50 units are out and about in Vancouver, and the company said it was “marking an exciting milestone in our five-year history of operations in Canada.”

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Credit: Rivian

Rivian and Amazon have announced a huge milestone with their Electric Delivery Vehicle (EDV), the van that the two companies developed for the e-commerce giant to sustainably deliver packages to customers.

The EDV was first unveiled back in September 2019, when Amazon announced a massive investment in Rivian and placed an order for 100,000 electric vans, aiming to deploy them by 2030 as part of the company’s sustainability goals.

Production started in 2021 in Normal, Illinois, and entered Amazon’s fleet of active delivery vehicles over the Summer of 2022. Amazon kept the initial vehicles in major metropolitan areas and eventually started rolling them out to more delivery hubs across the United States.

In December 2024, the companies announced they had successfully deployed 20,000 EDVs across the U.S. In the first half of this year, 10,000 additional vans were delivered, and Amazon’s fleet had grown to 30,000 EDVs by mid-2025.

Amazon’s fleet of EDVs continues to grow rapidly and has expanded to over 100 cities in the United States. However, it has just reached a new milestone, and it has nothing to do with the size of its fleet.

The companies announced today that they had officially launched the EDV in Canada for Amazon, as the first 50 units are out and about in Vancouver, and the company said it was “marking an exciting milestone in our five-year history of operations in Canada.”

The EDV is a model that is exclusive to Amazon, but Rivian sells the RCV, or Rivian Commercial Van, openly. It detailed some of the pricing and trim options back in January when it confirmed it had secured orders from various companies, including AT&T.

The RCV starts at $83,000, and is one of the few electric vans on the market that is suitable for package delivery in a commercial setting because of its build and interior features.

Rivian prepares to launch the EDV outside of Amazon as the RCV – Here’s when

However, it also seems to be a great option as a service vehicle for companies, which is likely why AT&T is going to utilize it.

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Tesla’s biggest rival in China reported a big profit decline once again

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(Credit: BYD)

Tesla’s biggest rival in China reported a big decline in its profitability for the second straight quarter, and a loss of one-third compared to the same quarter last year.

BYD overtook Tesla as the best-selling EV maker in China in the fourth quarter of 2023, finally surpassing the company in terms of sales in the region.

Is Tesla really losing to BYD, or just playing a different game?

The Chinese market is one of the most competitive in the world, especially for EVs, as the industry is healthy with young and scrappy companies looking to sell the best possible tech in their vehicles.

BYD reported its earnings on Thursday and said that its profit had slumped by 33 percent compared to the same quarter last year. For this year’s third quarter, BYD reported a net profit of 7.8 billion yuan ($1.1 billion), a 32.6 percent decrease compared to the same period in 2024.

Its revenue was 195 billion yuan ($27.4 billion), which was only a 3 percent decrease compared to Q3 2024.

The drop in profits and revenue can mostly be attributed to the ongoing growth of competition in the Chinese market. The increased competition in China has pushed companies to turn to overseas markets in response, according to CnEVPost.

BYD is one of those companies, and it is attempting to push sales upward by entering new markets, especially in Europe, where the company sold more than 13,000 units in EU countries in September alone.

This was a 272 percent increase year over year, a major piece of evidence that it has a lot of potential in foreign markets.

The drop in financial figures is likely a short-term issue for BYD, as it has already established itself as a formidable competitor to many companies in many markets. In Q1, it reported an increase in profit by 100 percent compared to the same time span the year prior.

As it works to expand to even more markets in the world, it will continue to build upon its already-solid reputation.

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GM takes latest step to avoid disaster as EV efforts get derailed

There was an even larger step taken this morning, as the Detroit Free Press reported that GM was idling its Factory Zero plant in Michigan until late November, placing about 1,200 workers on indefinite layoff status.

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Credit: GM

General Motors has taken its latest step to avoid financial disaster as its electric vehicle efforts have been widely derailed.

GM’s electric vehicle manufacturing efforts started off hot, and CEO Mary Barra seemed to have a real hold on how the industry and consumers were starting to evolve toward sustainable powertrains. Even former President Joe Biden commended her as being a major force in the global transition to EVs.

However, the company’s plans have not gone as they’ve drawn them up. GM has reported some underwhelming delivery figures in recent quarters, and with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit, the company is planning for what is likely a substantial setback in its entire EV division.

Earlier this month, the company reported it would include a $1.6 billion charge in its quarterly earnings results from EV investments. It was the first true sign that things with GM’s EV projects were going to slow down.

There was an even larger step taken this morning, as the Detroit Free Press reported that GM was idling its Factory Zero plant in Michigan until late November, placing about 1,200 workers on indefinite layoff status.

This is in addition to the 280 employees it has already laid off after production cuts that happened earlier this year at the Detroit-Hamtramck plant.

After November 24, GM will bring back 3,200 people to work until January 5 to operate both shifts. On January 5, GM is expected to keep 1,200 workers on indefinite layoff.

GM is not the only legacy automaker to make a move like this, as Ford has also started to make a move that reflects a cautious tone regarding how far and how committed it can be to its EV efforts.

After the tax credit was lost, it seemed to be a game of who would be able to float their efforts longest without the government’s help. Tesla CEO Elon Musk long said that the loss of these subsidies would help the company and hurt its competitors, and so far, that is what we are seeing.

Elon Musk was right all along about Tesla’s rivals and EV subsidies

However, Tesla still has some things to figure out, including how its delivery numbers will be without the tax credit. Its best quarter came in Q3 as the credit was expiring, but Tesla did roll out some more affordable models after the turn of the quarter.

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