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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says Crew Dragon spaceship 6 months from astronaut launch debut
Speaking in a mid-July interview with a CNBC correspondent, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk stated that he believed the company’s Crew Dragon spacecraft was likely 6-8 months away from an inaugural launch with astronauts aboard.
Elaborating a bit, he noted that SpaceX was aiming to realize that milestone in four months, while he expected – per past experience – the reality to fall somewhere between the bounds of four and eight months. Sadly, the interviewer – speaking a few days prior to a major Crew Dragon anomaly update – was either uninterested in or unaware of the spacecraft’s April 20th explosion and the several months of delays expected to follow. As such, Musk made no comments on the status of the investigation, but his comments still mesh well with info provided during the official July 15th update.
Put to dates, the SpaceX CEO believes that Crew Dragon could be ready for its inaugural astronaut launch as early as November 2019 and – optimistically – no later than March 2020. Splitting the difference, he settled on January 2020 (“six months”) as a moderate estimate for when that milestone is most likely to occur.
Specifically, Hans Koenigsmann stated that it wasn’t technically impossible for Crew Dragon’s DM-2 (crewed test flight) launch to occur in 2019, but it would soon become impossible if any additional delays occurred (very likely). NASA Commercial Crew manager Kathy Lueders also chose not to rule out the possibility that DM-2 could launch in 2019 but emphasized that a large amount of work remained, particularly on the NASA paperwork side of things.

As such, CEO Elon Musk appears to be spot-on in his estimate that Crew Dragon is most likely to launch its first astronauts sometime between January and March 2020. The likely slip into 2020 is certainly disappointing, coming nearly three years after the Commercial Crew Program (CCP) was initially expected to bear human-launching fruit. Chronic underfunding by pro-SLS members of Congress in the years following CCP’s major 2014 kick-off (CCtCap) almost certainly contributed to these delays, as earlier test flights would likely have lead to similarly early failures (normal for speedy spaceflight development programs), thus potentially allowing operational crewed launches to begin a year or two earlier.
Given the confluence of both Koenigsmann’s Lueders’, and Musk’s conservative optimism, the pragmatic space fan would do well to expect Crew Dragon’s crewed launch debut to occur no earlier than 2020 but retain hope for a late-December 2019 liftoff.

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Tesla FSD fleet is nearing 7 billion total miles, including 2.5 billion city miles
As can be seen on Tesla’s official FSD webpage, vehicles equipped with the system have now navigated over 6.99 billion miles.
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) fleet is closing in on almost 7 billion total miles driven, as per data posted by the company on its official FSD webpage.
These figures hint at the massive scale of data fueling Tesla’s rapid FSD improvements, which have been quite notable as of late.
FSD mileage milestones
As can be seen on Tesla’s official FSD webpage, vehicles equipped with the system have now navigated over 6.99 billion miles. Tesla owner and avid FSD tester Whole Mars Catalog also shared a screenshot indicating that from the nearly 7 billion miles traveled by the FSD fleet, more than 2.5 billion miles were driven inside cities.
City miles are particularly valuable for complex urban scenarios like unprotected turns, pedestrian interactions, and traffic lights. This is also the difference-maker for FSD, as only complex solutions, such as Waymo’s self-driving taxis, operate similarly on inner-city streets. And even then, incidents such as the San Francisco blackouts have proven challenging for sensor-rich vehicles like Waymos.
Tesla’s data edge
Tesla has a number of advantages in the autonomous vehicle sector, one of which is the size of its fleet and the number of vehicles training FSD on real-world roads. Tesla’s nearly 7 billion FSD miles then allow the company to roll out updates that make its vehicles behave like they are being driven by experienced drivers, even if they are operating on their own.
So notable are Tesla’s improvements to FSD that NVIDIA Director of Robotics Jim Fan, after experiencing FSD v14, noted that the system is the first AI that passes what he described as a “Physical Turing Test.”
“Despite knowing exactly how robot learning works, I still find it magical watching the steering wheel turn by itself. First it feels surreal, next it becomes routine. Then, like the smartphone, taking it away actively hurts. This is how humanity gets rewired and glued to god-like technologies,” Fan wrote in a post on X.
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Tesla starts showing how FSD will change lives in Europe
Local officials tested the system on narrow country roads and were impressed by FSD’s smooth, human-like driving, with some calling the service a game-changer for everyday life in areas that are far from urban centers.
Tesla has launched Europe’s first public shuttle service using Full Self-Driving (Supervised) in the rural Eifelkreis Bitburg-Prüm region of Germany, demonstrating how the technology can restore independence and mobility for people who struggle with limited transport options.
Local officials tested the system on narrow country roads and were impressed by FSD’s smooth, human-like driving, with some calling the service a game-changer for everyday life in areas that are far from urban centers.
Officials see real impact on rural residents
Arzfeld Mayor Johannes Kuhl and District Administrator Andreas Kruppert personally tested the Tesla shuttle service. This allowed them to see just how well FSD navigated winding lanes and rural roads confidently. Kruppert said, “Autonomous driving sounds like science fiction to many, but we simply see here that it works totally well in rural regions too.” Kuhl, for his part, also noted that FSD “feels like a very experienced driver.”
The pilot complements the area’s “Citizen Bus” program, which provides on-demand rides for elderly residents who can no longer drive themselves. Tesla Europe shared a video of a demonstration of the service, highlighting how FSD gives people their freedom back, even in places where public transport is not as prevalent.
What the Ministry for Economic Affairs and Transport says
Rhineland-Palatinate’s Minister Daniela Schmitt supported the project, praising the collaboration that made this “first of its kind in Europe” possible. As per the ministry, the rural rollout for the service shows FSD’s potential beyond major cities, and it delivers tangible benefits like grocery runs, doctor visits, and social connections for isolated residents.
“Reliable and flexible mobility is especially vital in rural areas. With the launch of a shuttle service using self-driving vehicles (FSD supervised) by Tesla in the Eifelkreis Bitburg-Prüm, an innovative pilot project is now getting underway that complements local community bus services. It is the first project of its kind in Europe.
“The result is a real gain for rural mobility: greater accessibility, more flexibility and tangible benefits for everyday life. A strong signal for innovation, cooperation and future-oriented mobility beyond urban centers,” the ministry wrote in a LinkedIn post.
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Tesla China quietly posts Robotaxi-related job listing
Tesla China is currently seeking a Low Voltage Electrical Engineer to work on circuit board design for the company’s autonomous vehicles.
Tesla has posted a new job listing in Shanghai explicitly tied to its Robotaxi program, fueling speculation that the company is preparing to launch its dedicated autonomous ride-hailing service in China.
As noted in the listing, Tesla China is currently seeking a Low Voltage Electrical Engineer to work on circuit board design for the company’s autonomous vehicles.
Robotaxi-specific role
The listing, which was shared on social media platform X by industry watcher @tslaming, suggested that Tesla China is looking to fill the role urgently. The job listing itself specifically mentions that the person hired for the role will be working on the Low Voltage Hardware team, which would design the circuit boards that would serve as the nervous system of the Robotaxi.
Key tasks for the role, as indicated in the job listing, include collaboration with PCB layout, firmware, mechanical, program management, and validation teams, among other responsibilities. The role is based in Shanghai.
China Robotaxi launch
China represents a massive potential market for robotaxis, with its dense urban centers and supportive policies in select cities. Tesla has limited permission to roll out FSD in the country, though despite this, its vehicles have been hailed as among the best in the market when it comes to autonomous features. So far, at least, it appears that China supports Tesla’s FSD and Robotaxi rollout.
This was hinted at in November, when Tesla brought the Cybercab to the 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai, marking the first time that the autonomous two-seater was brought to the Asia-Pacific region. The vehicle, despite not having a release date in China, received a significant amount of interest among the event’s attendees.