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SpaceX’s Elon Musk: odds of Starship reaching orbit by 2020 are “rising rapidly”
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has suggested that the company’s newly revamped Starship and Super Heavy rocket (previously known as BFR) could perform its first integrated launches – placing Starship into orbit – as few as 12-24 months from today.
Musk indicated that the odds of Starship reaching orbit as early as 2020 are now as high as “60% [and] rising rapidly”, thanks in no small part to the flurry of radical changes the spacecraft and booster have both undergone over the course of 2018.
Probability at 60% & rising rapidly due to new architecture
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 27, 2018
Combined with a decision – made public at a September 2018 media event – to delay the debut of a vacuum-optimized upper stage Raptor (RVac) and stick with its mature sea level variant, Musk apparently is quite confident that these dramatic shifts in strategy will allow SpaceX to aggressively slash the development schedules of its next-gen launch vehicle. Intriguingly, Musk noted that while these “radical” design changes were almost entirely motivated by his desire to expedite the fully-reusable rocket’s operational debut, it apparently became clear that the cheaper, faster, and easier iteration could actually end up being (in Musk’s own words) “dramatically better” than its exotic carbon-composite progenitor.
Time. Although it also turned out to be dramatically better.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 27, 2018

“Delightfully counter-intuitive”
Let there be little doubt – I am still immensely skeptical of this radical redesign and the implausible logistics of conducting said redesign at the last second while somehow maintaining the test schedule, let alone expediting it by 6-9 months. Despite the fact that Musk does seem to have a compellingly rational answer to every question thus far asked, he was no less convincing in mid-2016 when he stated with contagious conviction that Tesla’s Fremont factory would be an almost 100%-automated “alien dreadnought” as early as 2018. There is, of course, nothing wrong per se with being wrong, although taking 24 months and several hundred million dollars to realize as much can be downright fatal or at least a major health risk for any given company that faces such a challenge, as was the case with Tesla.
Skepticism aside, there are equally many reasons to be optimistic about the future of SpaceX’s Starship/Super Heavy (BFR) program over the next several years. Not only do metal hot structures have a proven track record of success (admittedly in the 1960s and for suborbital conditions, but still), but the century and a half humans have been making and building with steel serves to aggressively reduce risk in BFR’s development, whereas a giant, highly-reusable spaceship and rocket built mainly out of carbon composites is about as exotic, challenging, and alien as one could muster. One step further, Musk appears to be dead-set on the trade that the benefits of moving from composite to stainless steel far, far outweigh the costs.
- BFS/Starship shows off some of its heat shield. SpaceX may be looking into an advanced NASA solution for BFR’s thermal protection system. (SpaceX)
- Starship is shown here reentering Mars’ atmosphere at high speeds (SpaceX)
- Starship – in its 2018 design iteration – seen landing on Mars atop pillars of Raptor flame. (SpaceX)
- SpaceX CEO Elon Musk visited the South Texas site where Starship’s first prototype is being built on December 23rd. (Elon Musk)
- Starship… or BFWTF? 🙂 (NASASpaceflight /u/bocachicagal)
Most notably, Musk’s implication that a steel alloy skin – albeit with regenerative (i.e. liquid) cooling – could genuinely stand in for SpaceX’s ablative PICA-X heat shield technology on Starship was the most unintuitive but logical shift yet. Although steel alloys may literally have densities that are significantly higher than carbon composites, composites simply cannot (at least in the current state of the art) withstand high temperatures like those that Starship would inevitably experience during orbital and interplanetary reentries. As a result, Starship would need an extremely advanced heat shield technology that is minimally ablative, extremely lightweight, robust, and shock-resistant, not to mention an additional layer capable of mounting it to Starship’s composite hull while also insulating the propellant tanks and structure from the extreme heat of reentry.
Leeward side needs nothing, windward side will be activity cooled with residual (cryo) liquid methane, so will appear liquid silver even on hot side
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 25, 2018
Steel, on the other hand, is one of the least thermally conductive metals available, while also featuring alloys with melting points that can approach and even surpass 1500 degrees C. With regenerative cooling, it’s entirely possible that a hot steel shield and fusion of propellant tanks and load-bearing structures could ultimately result in a spaceship far more reusable, reliable, and perhaps even performant that a spaceship relying on exotic heat shield materials and linerless carbon composite propellant tanks.
Perhaps BFR Block 2 or 3 will make room for dramatically improved composite formulations and production methods down the road, but advanced steel and other metal alloys appear to be the way forward for SpaceX for the time being. For now, we can sit, watch, and wait as something comes together at the company’s South Texas test and launch facilities.
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News
Tesla launches solution to end Supercharger fights once and for all
Tesla is launching its solution to end Supercharger fights once and for all, eliminating any confusion on who is to charge next at a congested location.
Last year, a notable incident at a Tesla Supercharger led to a fight, and it all stemmed from a disagreement over who arrived at the location first.
Congestion at Tesla Superchargers is a pretty infrequent occurrence for most of us, but there are more congested and popular areas where wait times can be extensive. An unfortunate growing pain of EV ownership is the plain fact that chargers are not as available as gas pumps, and there are, at times, lines to charge.
This can cause tensions to flare and people to get entitled when visiting Superchargers. Nobody wants to spend hours at a Supercharger, but now, there will be no more confusion when there is a queue, and that’s thanks to Tesla’s new Virtual Queue for Superchargers.
Tesla is finally starting to build out the Virtual Supercharger Queue, according to Not a Tesla App, but it still relies on drivers to make it work.
When a driver is near a Supercharger that is full, a message will pop up on the Tesla App, using the driver’s location to determine their eligibility to join the virtual queue.
The app states:
“While the app is closed, Tesla uses your location to notify you of accurate wait times at Superchargers when you arrive.”
Another message within the app states:
“There is a waitlist to charge. Are you sure you want to start a charging session now?”
This sounds as if it will require drivers to act appropriately and only plug in when the app prompts them to do so, by letting them know it is their turn.
The app will notify the driver of their position in the queue, as well as how many vehicles are ahead of them.
Tesla launches first ‘true’ East Coast V4 Supercharger: here’s what that means
The company announced a while back that it would be working on a solution for this issue. Personally, I’ve only had to wait at a Supercharger for a charge on one occasion, and there was a line of between 3 and 10 cars during this singular occurrence.
I’m out at the Lancaster, PA Supercharger and showed up with a queue of three vehicles.
It’s now up to five and there have been several issues with order of arrival and confusion about who is first.
Any update on Supercharger queue? @elonmusk @aelluswamy @r_jegaa
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 31, 2026
There were no conflicts or arguments about who had arrived first, but there was some discussion between several drivers during my time there about who was to charge first. Throw a non-Tesla EV into the mix, one that can only charge at a pull-in spot, and that causes even more of a complication.
News
Tesla offers awesome Free Supercharging incentive on an unexpected vehicle
In the past, Tesla has used Free Supercharging to incentivize the purchase of its expensive vehicles, like the Model S and Model X. However, those vehicles are leaving the company lineup, and Tesla saw a benefit from applying the incentive to another car.
Tesla is offering an awesome new Free Supercharging incentive on a vehicle that is sort of unexpected.
In the past, Tesla has used Free Supercharging to incentivize the purchase of its expensive vehicles, like the Model S and Model X. However, those vehicles are leaving the company lineup, and Tesla saw a benefit from applying the incentive to another car.
Tesla North America has introduced a compelling new incentive aimed at boosting Model 3 sales. Starting with orders placed on or after April 24, buyers of the Model 3 Premium (Long Range) and Performance variants in the United States will receive one full year of complimentary Supercharging.
The offer applies exclusively to new vehicle orders and does not extend to existing owners or other trims like the base Rear-Wheel Drive model.
New orders of Model 3 Premium & Performance now come with 1 year of free Supercharging 🇺🇸
Also, all Teslas pay the lowest Supercharging rates – all others pay a ~40% premium or need a subscription
— Tesla North America (@tesla_na) April 24, 2026
The announcement underscores Tesla’s continued dominance in EV charging infrastructure.
While the incentive provides 12 months of zero-cost access to the Supercharger network, Tesla also reiterated its pricing structure: all Tesla vehicles receive the lowest Supercharging rates.
Non-Tesla EVs, by contrast, pay approximately 40 percent more per kWh or must purchase a subscription to access the network at standard rates. This tiered approach highlights the strategic value of owning a Tesla, where seamless integration with the world’s largest and most reliable fast-charging network remains a key differentiator.
For prospective buyers, the savings can be substantial. Depending on driving habits, a typical Model 3 owner might log 12,000–15,000 miles annually.
With average Supercharging costs around $0.40–$0.50 per kWh, one year of free sessions could translate to $800–$1,200 in avoided expenses.
That effectively lowers the total cost of ownership and makes long-distance travel more affordable from day one. Early delivery customers have already noted similar past incentives, with one Cybertruck owner reporting over $2,400 saved in just six months under similar offers that Tesla has deployed in the past.
The timing of the offer appears strategic. Tesla faces growing competition from other automakers expanding their own charging networks and offering aggressive EV incentives.
By bundling free Supercharging rather than discounting the vehicle’s MSRP, Tesla preserves perceived value while directly addressing one of the biggest barriers for new EV adopters: charging costs and convenience.
The move also encourages higher-mileage use of the network, generating valuable real-world data for Tesla’s autonomous driving development.
Why Tesla would apply this incentive to the Model 3 is pretty interesting. It usually is a pretty good incentive to move units out the door, so there’s some speculation whether Tesla is planning to launch new upgrades to the mass-market sedan in the coming months, and the company wants to move what will be outdated units from its inventory.
However, there is also just the idea that Tesla could be attempting to stimulate some early quarter demand for the Model 3, especially as the Model Y continues to sell very well. Tesla’s loss of the $7,500 EV tax credit last year had an impact on sales, and Tesla might be testing some formidable options to see if it can add some demand once again.
News
Tesla Cybercab gets crazy change as mass production begins
Tesla has officially kicked off mass production of its groundbreaking Cybercab robotaxi at Giga Texas, and the first units rolling off the line feature a striking transformation that’s turning heads across the EV community.
Tesla Cybercab has evidently received a pretty crazy change from an aesthetic standpoint, as the company has made the decision to offer an additional finish on the vehicle as mass production is starting.
Tesla has officially kicked off mass production of its groundbreaking Cybercab robotaxi at Giga Texas, and the first units rolling off the line feature a striking transformation that’s turning heads across the EV community.
VIN Zero—the very first production Cybercab—showcases a vibrant champagne gold exterior with a high-gloss finish, a dramatic departure from the flat, matte-wrapped prototypes that debuted at the 2024 “We, Robot” event.
Presenting VIN Zero — the very first production Cybercab built at Giga Texas. pic.twitter.com/8bXo4CJAlr
— TechOperator (@TechOperator) April 23, 2026
This glossy sheen is a pretty big pivot from what was initially shown by Tesla. The company has maintained a pretty flat tone in terms of anything related to custom colors or finishes.
A specialized clear coat or process delivers the deep, reflective gloss without conventional painting. The result is a premium, mirror-like shine, and it looks pretty good, and gives the compact two-seater a more luxurious and futuristic presence than the subdued matte prototypes.
Photos shared by Tesla community members reveal VIN Zero in a showroom-like setting at Giga Texas, highlighting refined panel gaps, large aero wheel covers, and the signature no-steering-wheel, no-pedals interior optimized for full autonomy.
The open frunk in some images offers a glimpse of practical storage, while the overall build quality appears more polished than that of test mules.
This glossy evolution aligns with Tesla’s broader production ramp. After the first unit in February 2026, the company has shifted to volume manufacturing, with dozens of units already spotted in outbound lots. CEO Elon Musk and the team aim for hundreds per week, paving the way for unsupervised FSD robotaxi networks that could slash ride costs to pennies per mile.
The Cybercab holds Tesla’s grand ambitions of operating a full-service ride-hailing service without any drivers in its grasp. Tesla has yet to solve autonomy, but is well on its way, and although its timelines are usually a bit off, improvements often come through the Over-the-Air updates to the Full Self-Driving suite.




