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SpaceX’s Elon Musk: odds of Starship reaching orbit by 2020 are “rising rapidly”

Starship is visualized here landing on Mars. Initial Texas hop tests will likely look similar, albeit in Earth gravity and over concrete. (SpaceX)

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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has suggested that the company’s newly revamped Starship and Super Heavy rocket (previously known as BFR) could perform its first integrated launches – placing Starship into orbit – as few as 12-24 months from today.

Musk indicated that the odds of Starship reaching orbit as early as 2020 are now as high as “60% [and] rising rapidly”, thanks in no small part to the flurry of radical changes the spacecraft and booster have both undergone over the course of 2018.

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Combined with a decision – made public at a September 2018 media event – to delay the debut of a vacuum-optimized upper stage Raptor (RVac) and stick with its mature sea level variant, Musk apparently is quite confident that these dramatic shifts in strategy will allow SpaceX to aggressively slash the development schedules of its next-gen launch vehicle. Intriguingly, Musk noted that while these “radical” design changes were almost entirely motivated by his desire to expedite the fully-reusable rocket’s operational debut, it apparently became clear that the cheaper, faster, and easier iteration could actually end up being (in Musk’s own words) “dramatically better” than its exotic carbon-composite progenitor.

BFS arrives at Mars. (SpaceX)

“Delightfully counter-intuitive”

Let there be little doubt – I am still immensely skeptical of this radical redesign and the implausible logistics of conducting said redesign at the last second while somehow maintaining the test schedule, let alone expediting it by 6-9 months. Despite the fact that Musk does seem to have a compellingly rational answer to every question thus far asked, he was no less convincing in mid-2016 when he stated with contagious conviction that Tesla’s Fremont factory would be an almost 100%-automated “alien dreadnought” as early as 2018. There is, of course, nothing wrong per se with being wrong, although taking 24 months and several hundred million dollars to realize as much can be downright fatal or at least a major health risk for any given company that faces such a challenge, as was the case with Tesla.

Skepticism aside, there are equally many reasons to be optimistic about the future of SpaceX’s Starship/Super Heavy (BFR) program over the next several years. Not only do metal hot structures have a proven track record of success (admittedly in the 1960s and for suborbital conditions, but still), but the century and a half humans have been making and building with steel serves to aggressively reduce risk in BFR’s development, whereas a giant, highly-reusable spaceship and rocket built mainly out of carbon composites is about as exotic, challenging, and alien as one could muster. One step further, Musk appears to be dead-set on the trade that the benefits of moving from composite to stainless steel far, far outweigh the costs.

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Most notably, Musk’s implication that a steel alloy skin – albeit with regenerative (i.e. liquid) cooling – could genuinely stand in for SpaceX’s ablative PICA-X heat shield technology on Starship was the most unintuitive but logical shift yet. Although steel alloys may literally have densities that are significantly higher than carbon composites, composites simply cannot (at least in the current state of the art) withstand high temperatures like those that Starship would inevitably experience during orbital and interplanetary reentries. As a result, Starship would need an extremely advanced heat shield technology that is minimally ablative, extremely lightweight, robust, and shock-resistant, not to mention an additional layer capable of mounting it to Starship’s composite hull while also insulating the propellant tanks and structure from the extreme heat of reentry.

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Steel, on the other hand, is one of the least thermally conductive metals available, while also featuring alloys with melting points that can approach and even surpass 1500 degrees C. With regenerative cooling, it’s entirely possible that a hot steel shield and fusion of propellant tanks and load-bearing structures could ultimately result in a spaceship far more reusable, reliable, and perhaps even performant that a spaceship relying on exotic heat shield materials and linerless carbon composite propellant tanks.

Perhaps BFR Block 2 or 3 will make room for dramatically improved composite formulations and production methods down the road, but advanced steel and other metal alloys appear to be the way forward for SpaceX for the time being. For now, we can sit, watch, and wait as something comes together at the company’s South Texas test and launch facilities.


For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Cybertruck

Tesla launches new Cybertruck trim with more features than ever for a low price

This is a considerable upgrade to the Cybertruck Rear-Wheel-Drive that Tesla offered last year. It was discontinued after just a few months, but we still have yet to see anyone share pictures of it online.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has officially launched a new trim of its all-electric Cybertruck, which has more features than previous offerings at this price point, which is an incredibly good value.

Tesla is now offering the Cybertruck All-Wheel-Drive, and starting at $59,990, it appears to be a lot of truck for the money.

Along with the sub-$60,000 starting price, Tesla gives the Cybertruck AWD a 325-mile range rating, a powered tonneau cover that houses three bed outlets. It also has Powershare capability, coil springs with adaptive damping for a refined suspension feel, Steer-by-wire and four-wheel-steering, a 6′ x 4′ composite bed, a towing capacity of 7,500 pounds, and a powered frunk.

This is a considerable upgrade to the Cybertruck Rear-Wheel-Drive that Tesla offered last year. It was discontinued after just a few months, but we still have yet to see anyone share pictures of it online.

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That truck did not have a power tonneau, did not have adaptive suspension, leather seats, or nearly any of the premium features in the upper-level trims. It was not a great deal, either. It was only a $10,000 discount from the next Cybertruck trim, which meant losing a motor and a lot of premium features for not that much of a savings.

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This is a much better offering from Tesla and could help the company see a bit of a resurgence from a sales perspective. Although the Cybertruck is a popular vehicle from a fan perspective, it is not a great seller, and Tesla knows it.

Tesla Cybertruck undergoes interior mod that many owners wanted

Despite it being a crowd favorite, it was simply priced out of people’s budgets, so this All-Wheel-Drive configuration should be easier to handle financially for many of those who wanted the Cybertruck but not the price tag that came with it.

It is not a far cry from what Tesla priced back in 2019, as it unveiled three trim levels back in November, nearly seven years ago: a Single Motor for $39,990, a Dual Motor for $49,990, and a Tri-Motor for $69,990.

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This new AWD trim is just $10,000 off from that price tag, and accounting for inflation, Tesla is pretty close.

Deliveries are expected to begin in June 2026.

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Tesla dominates JD Power EV Satisfaction ranking, grabbing top two spots

The Model 3 was the highest ranking EV considered, with a score of 804, followed by the Model Y at 797, the BMW i4 at 795, and the BMW iX at 794.

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Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East/X

Tesla dominated JD Power’s EV Owner Satisfaction ranking for 2026, grabbing the top two spots in the survey with the Model 3 and Model Y.

The two Tesla models grabbed the first and second spots, respectively, with scores of 804 and 797 out of 1,000 possible points.

Brent Gruber, Executive Director of JD Power’s EV practice, said:

“EV market share has declined sharply following the discontinuation of the federal tax credit program in September 2025, but that dip belies steadily growing customer satisfaction among owners of new EVs. Improvements in battery technology, charging infrastructure, and overall vehicle performance have driven customer satisfaction to its highest level ever. What’s more, the vast majority of current EV owners say they will consider purchasing another EV for their next vehicle, regardless of whether they benefited from the now-expired federal tax credit.”

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JD Power’s study showed three key findings: Public charging satisfaction was higher than ever, premium BEVs saw more pronounced quality improvements, and BEVs held their satisfaction ratings compared to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).

Tesla Grabs Top 2 Spots

Despite what some publications might try to make you believe, Tesla is still the cream of the crop when it comes to EV ownership, and real-world owners surveyed by JD Power will prove that to you.

The Model 3 was the highest ranking EV considered, with a score of 804, followed by the Model Y at 797, the BMW i4 at 795, and the BMW iX at 794. The segment average for “Premium Battery Electric Vehicles” was 786. The Cadillac OPTIQ (762), Rivian R1S (758), Lucid Air (740), Rivian R1T (739), and Audi Q6 e-Tron (690) all finished below that threshold.

Tesla Model 3 wins Edmunds’ Best EV of 2026 award

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Meanwhile, a separate category for “Mass Market Battery Electric Vehicles” had the Ford Mustang Mach-E as the EV with the highest rating at 760. The segment average for this class was 727.

Tesla Supercharging Improves Public Charging Satisfaction

JD Power said the availability of public charging is “by far the most improved index factor,” and that the consistent growth of publicly available charging has helped push many consumer sentiments in a positive direction.

Most of this is due to the Tesla Supercharger Network and its expansion. However, Tesla owners are also becoming more satisfied with the infrastructure after expanding access to other EV brands, the study said.

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Elon Musk

Musk company boycott proposal at City Council meeting gets weird and ironic

The City of Davis in California held a weekly city council meeting on Tuesday, where it voted on a proposal to ban Musk-operated companies. It got weird and ironic.

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Credit: Grok

A city council meeting in California that proposed banning the entry of new contracts with companies controlled by Elon Musk got weird and ironic on Tuesday night after councilmembers were forced to admit some of the entities would benefit the community.

The City of Davis in California held a weekly city council meeting on Tuesday, where it voted on a proposal called “Resolution Ending Engagement With Elon Musk-Controlled Companies and To Encourage CalPERS To Divest Stock In These Companies.”

The proposal claimed that Musk ” has used his influence and corporate platforms to promote political ideologies and activities that threaten democratic norms and institutions, including campaign finance activities that raise ethical and legal concerns.”

We reported on it on Tuesday before the meeting:

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California city weighs banning Elon Musk companies like Tesla and SpaceX

However, the meeting is now published online, and it truly got strange.

While it was supported by various members of the community, you could truly tell who was completely misinformed about the influence of Musk’s companies, their current status from an economic and competitive standpoint, and how much some of Musk’s companies’ projects benefit the community.

City Council Member Admits Starlink is Helpful

One City Council member was forced to admit that Starlink, the satellite internet project established by Musk’s SpaceX, was beneficial to the community because the emergency response system utilized it for EMS, Fire, and Police communications in the event of a power outage.

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After public comments were heard, councilmembers amended some of the language in the proposal to not include Starlink because of its benefits to public safety.

One community member even said, “There should be exceptions to the rule.”

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Community Members Report Out of Touch Mainstream Media Narratives

Many community members very obviously read big bold headlines about how horribly Tesla is performing in terms of electric vehicles. Many pointed to “labor intimidation” tactics being used at the company’s Fremont Factory, racial discrimination lawsuits, and Musk’s political involvement as clear-cut reasons why Davis should not consider his companies for future contracts.

However, it was interesting to hear some of them speak, very obviously out of touch with reality.

Musk has encouraged unions to propose organizing at the Fremont Factory, stating that many employees would not be on board because they are already treated very well. In 2022, he invited Union leaders to come to Fremont “at their convenience.”

The UAW never took the opportunity.

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Some have argued that Tesla prevented pro-union clothing at Fremont, which it did for safety reasons. An appeals court sided with Tesla, stating that the company had a right to enforce work uniforms to ensure employee safety.

Another community member said that Tesla was losing market share in the U.S. due to growing competition from legacy automakers.

“Plus, these existing auto companies have learned a lot from what Tesla has done,” she said. Interestingly, Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis have all pulled back from their EV ambitions significantly. All three took billions in financial hits.

One Resident Crosses a Line

One resident’s time at the podium included this:

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He was admonished by City Council member Bapu Vaitla, who said his actions were offensive. The two sparred verbally for a few seconds before their argument ended.

City Council Vote Result

Ultimately, the City of Davis chose to pass the motion, but they also amended it to exclude Starlink because of its emergency system benefits.

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