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SpaceX’s Elon Musk: odds of Starship reaching orbit by 2020 are “rising rapidly”

Starship is visualized here landing on Mars. Initial Texas hop tests will likely look similar, albeit in Earth gravity and over concrete. (SpaceX)

Published

6 years ago

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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has suggested that the company’s newly revamped Starship and Super Heavy rocket (previously known as BFR) could perform its first integrated launches – placing Starship into orbit – as few as 12-24 months from today.

Musk indicated that the odds of Starship reaching orbit as early as 2020 are now as high as “60% [and] rising rapidly”, thanks in no small part to the flurry of radical changes the spacecraft and booster have both undergone over the course of 2018.

Combined with a decision – made public at a September 2018 media event – to delay the debut of a vacuum-optimized upper stage Raptor (RVac) and stick with its mature sea level variant, Musk apparently is quite confident that these dramatic shifts in strategy will allow SpaceX to aggressively slash the development schedules of its next-gen launch vehicle. Intriguingly, Musk noted that while these “radical” design changes were almost entirely motivated by his desire to expedite the fully-reusable rocket’s operational debut, it apparently became clear that the cheaper, faster, and easier iteration could actually end up being (in Musk’s own words) “dramatically better” than its exotic carbon-composite progenitor.

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BFS arrives at Mars. (SpaceX)

“Delightfully counter-intuitive”

Let there be little doubt – I am still immensely skeptical of this radical redesign and the implausible logistics of conducting said redesign at the last second while somehow maintaining the test schedule, let alone expediting it by 6-9 months. Despite the fact that Musk does seem to have a compellingly rational answer to every question thus far asked, he was no less convincing in mid-2016 when he stated with contagious conviction that Tesla’s Fremont factory would be an almost 100%-automated “alien dreadnought” as early as 2018. There is, of course, nothing wrong per se with being wrong, although taking 24 months and several hundred million dollars to realize as much can be downright fatal or at least a major health risk for any given company that faces such a challenge, as was the case with Tesla.

Skepticism aside, there are equally many reasons to be optimistic about the future of SpaceX’s Starship/Super Heavy (BFR) program over the next several years. Not only do metal hot structures have a proven track record of success (admittedly in the 1960s and for suborbital conditions, but still), but the century and a half humans have been making and building with steel serves to aggressively reduce risk in BFR’s development, whereas a giant, highly-reusable spaceship and rocket built mainly out of carbon composites is about as exotic, challenging, and alien as one could muster. One step further, Musk appears to be dead-set on the trade that the benefits of moving from composite to stainless steel far, far outweigh the costs.

 

Most notably, Musk’s implication that a steel alloy skin – albeit with regenerative (i.e. liquid) cooling – could genuinely stand in for SpaceX’s ablative PICA-X heat shield technology on Starship was the most unintuitive but logical shift yet. Although steel alloys may literally have densities that are significantly higher than carbon composites, composites simply cannot (at least in the current state of the art) withstand high temperatures like those that Starship would inevitably experience during orbital and interplanetary reentries. As a result, Starship would need an extremely advanced heat shield technology that is minimally ablative, extremely lightweight, robust, and shock-resistant, not to mention an additional layer capable of mounting it to Starship’s composite hull while also insulating the propellant tanks and structure from the extreme heat of reentry.

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Steel, on the other hand, is one of the least thermally conductive metals available, while also featuring alloys with melting points that can approach and even surpass 1500 degrees C. With regenerative cooling, it’s entirely possible that a hot steel shield and fusion of propellant tanks and load-bearing structures could ultimately result in a spaceship far more reusable, reliable, and perhaps even performant that a spaceship relying on exotic heat shield materials and linerless carbon composite propellant tanks.

Perhaps BFR Block 2 or 3 will make room for dramatically improved composite formulations and production methods down the road, but advanced steel and other metal alloys appear to be the way forward for SpaceX for the time being. For now, we can sit, watch, and wait as something comes together at the company’s South Texas test and launch facilities.

For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla Semi gets new adoptee in latest sighting

Tesla is continuing to increase the number of companies that have access to the Semi.

Published

7 hours ago

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May 9, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

The Tesla Semi looks to have its newest adoptee as US Foods, the second-largest foodservice distributor in the United States, was seen with its badging on the all-electric Class 8 truck.

US Foods trails only Sysco Corporation in terms of foodservice distributors by volume in the United States. The company joined several other massive food industry entities, such as PepsiCo, and its subsidiary, Frito-Lay, have both utilized the Tesla Semi in their fleets.

Tesla Semi futuristic sci-fi acceleration sound will never get old

The Semi in question was spotted by X user Zanegler, a prominent tracker of the Tesla Semi and its factory, which sits near the company’s Gigafactory Nevada plant in Reno:

US Foods also has a distribution center in Reno, which could have something to do with its decision to start using the Semi in regional logistics.

With an influx of EV semitrucks hitting the market from many different manufacturers, it is evident that companies are taking the idea of making their fleets more environmentally friendly very seriously.

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Tesla is still very close to unloading the Semi in a more volumized fashion, as the company’s Vice President of Vehicle Engineering, Lars Moravy, said in January:

“We just closed out the Semi factory roofing walls last week in Reno…but we’re prepping for mechanical installation of all the equipment in the coming months… The first builds of the high-volume Semi design come late this year in 2025 and begin ramping early in 2026.”

First Tesla Semi high-volume production builds expected this 2025

With the latest addition of US Foods, Tesla increases its list of companies that are planning or are already using the Semi to help with local logistics and transportation. Among them are:

  • PepsiCo
  • Walmart
  • Sysco
  • Costco
  • Martin Brower
  • Saia Inc.
  • UPS
  • Anheuser-Busch
  • DHL

Many other companies have plans to use the Semi in their fleets. Currently, Tesla appears to be hand-picking those who have access to the vehicle as the pilot program continues.

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Tesla Cybertruck takes a bump from epic failing Dodge Charger

The Cybertruck seemed unharmed by the charging Charger.

Published

8 hours ago

on

May 9, 2025

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Credit: Hammer_of_something/Reddit

There comes a time in a driver’s life when one is faced with one’s limitations. For the driver of a Dodge Charger, this time came when he lost control and crashed into a Tesla Cybertruck–an absolute epic fail. 

A video of the rather unfortunate incident was shared on the r/TeslaLounge subreddit.

Charging Charger Fails

As could be seen in the video, which was posted on the subreddit by Model Y owner u/Hammer_of_something, a group of teens in a Dodge Charger decided to do some burnouts at a Tesla Supercharger. Unfortunately, the driver of the Charger failed in his burnout or donut attempt, resulting in the mopar sedan going over a curb and bumping a charging Cybertruck.

Ironically, the Dodge Charger seemed to have been parked at a Supercharger stall before its driver decided to perform the failed stunt. This suggests that the vehicle was likely ICE-ing a charging stall before it had its epic fail moment. Amusingly enough, the subreddit member noted that the Cybertruck did not seem like it took any damage at all despite its bump. The Charger, however, seemed like it ran into some trouble after crashing into the truck.

Alleged Aftermath

As per the the r/TeslaLounge subreddit member, the Cybertruck owner came rushing out to his vehicle after the Dodge Charger crashed into it. The Model Y owner then sent over the full video of the incident, which clearly showed the Charger attempting a burnout, failing, and bumping into the Cybertruck. The Cybertruck owner likely appreciated the video, in part because it showed the driver of the Dodge Charger absolutely freaking out after the incident.

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The Cybertruck is not an impregnable vehicle, but it can take bumps pretty well thanks to its thick stainless steel body. Based on this video, it appears that the Cybertruck can even take bumps from a charging Charger, all while chilling and charging at a Supercharger. As for the teens in the Dodge, they likely had to provide a long explanation to authorities after the incident, since the cops were called to the location.

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Tesla confronts Service complaints with new AI-backed strategy

Tesla will use a new AI Agent to help expedite Service claims and improve communication with customers.

Published

9 hours ago

on

May 9, 2025

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tesla service
Credit: Tesla

Tesla is implementing a new AI-based strategy to improve service for owners. Service has routinely been among the biggest complaints of owners, although it has improved drastically over the past few years.

Some of the complaints that Tesla has received regarding its Service platform have evidently been used to develop new strategies to not only streamline the entire experience but also to make things easier for the company, which deals with many claims each week.

As a result of complaints in the past, Tesla has used various strategies to make things better for customers. However, the latest improvement comes as a result of AI, something Tesla leans on in many facets of its business.

Tesla adds ingenious solution to app to streamline Service appointments

Tesla’s AI and IT Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, and Vehicle Service head Raj Jegannathan said on X this week that the company is rolling out a new AI Agent specifically designed to handle service comms with customers.

He said the new Service AI Agent will detect delays in communications between the company and the customers, monitor the sentiment of these conversations, and auto-escalate certain claims directly to leaders.

It will also allow customers to type the word ‘Escalate’ in the message center portion of the phone app after two weeks of delays. This will help customers reach higher-ups more easily and likely will eliminate the complaints that many have had over the past few years.

The company is rolling out the AI Agent in ten pilot locations to start. Its first day being active was May 8.

Jegannathan said:

“Tesla Service’s new AI Agent detects comms delays, monitors sentiment, & auto-escalates to leaders. Starts tomorrow at 10 pilot locations. In 2 weeks, type “Escalate” in ‘message center’ to reach managers. Guardrails in place to prevent abuse. We’ll keep improving!”

Service has had a lot of interesting strategies used to improve things, but it has definitely been a weak point of the Tesla ownership experience. In a perfect world, vehicles wouldn’t need repair for anything, but that is not realistic.

Instead, Tesla has worked to expedite the entire Service experience through various strategies, including F1-style service, and a goal to fix two-thirds of repair claims within the same day.

Parts availability sometimes takes this goal out of reasonableness, but these constant attempts at improving the repair experience show Tesla is doing what it can to make things better for owners.

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