News
SpaceX’s Elon Musk: odds of Starship reaching orbit by 2020 are “rising rapidly”
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has suggested that the company’s newly revamped Starship and Super Heavy rocket (previously known as BFR) could perform its first integrated launches – placing Starship into orbit – as few as 12-24 months from today.
Musk indicated that the odds of Starship reaching orbit as early as 2020 are now as high as “60% [and] rising rapidly”, thanks in no small part to the flurry of radical changes the spacecraft and booster have both undergone over the course of 2018.
Probability at 60% & rising rapidly due to new architecture
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 27, 2018
Combined with a decision – made public at a September 2018 media event – to delay the debut of a vacuum-optimized upper stage Raptor (RVac) and stick with its mature sea level variant, Musk apparently is quite confident that these dramatic shifts in strategy will allow SpaceX to aggressively slash the development schedules of its next-gen launch vehicle. Intriguingly, Musk noted that while these “radical” design changes were almost entirely motivated by his desire to expedite the fully-reusable rocket’s operational debut, it apparently became clear that the cheaper, faster, and easier iteration could actually end up being (in Musk’s own words) “dramatically better” than its exotic carbon-composite progenitor.
Time. Although it also turned out to be dramatically better.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 27, 2018
“Delightfully counter-intuitive”
Let there be little doubt – I am still immensely skeptical of this radical redesign and the implausible logistics of conducting said redesign at the last second while somehow maintaining the test schedule, let alone expediting it by 6-9 months. Despite the fact that Musk does seem to have a compellingly rational answer to every question thus far asked, he was no less convincing in mid-2016 when he stated with contagious conviction that Tesla’s Fremont factory would be an almost 100%-automated “alien dreadnought” as early as 2018. There is, of course, nothing wrong per se with being wrong, although taking 24 months and several hundred million dollars to realize as much can be downright fatal or at least a major health risk for any given company that faces such a challenge, as was the case with Tesla.
Skepticism aside, there are equally many reasons to be optimistic about the future of SpaceX’s Starship/Super Heavy (BFR) program over the next several years. Not only do metal hot structures have a proven track record of success (admittedly in the 1960s and for suborbital conditions, but still), but the century and a half humans have been making and building with steel serves to aggressively reduce risk in BFR’s development, whereas a giant, highly-reusable spaceship and rocket built mainly out of carbon composites is about as exotic, challenging, and alien as one could muster. One step further, Musk appears to be dead-set on the trade that the benefits of moving from composite to stainless steel far, far outweigh the costs.
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- BFS/Starship shows off some of its heat shield. SpaceX may be looking into an advanced NASA solution for BFR’s thermal protection system. (SpaceX)
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- Starship is shown here reentering Mars’ atmosphere at high speeds (SpaceX)
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- Starship – in its 2018 design iteration – seen landing on Mars atop pillars of Raptor flame. (SpaceX)
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- SpaceX CEO Elon Musk visited the South Texas site where Starship’s first prototype is being built on December 23rd. (Elon Musk)
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- Starship… or BFWTF? 🙂 (NASASpaceflight /u/bocachicagal)
Most notably, Musk’s implication that a steel alloy skin – albeit with regenerative (i.e. liquid) cooling – could genuinely stand in for SpaceX’s ablative PICA-X heat shield technology on Starship was the most unintuitive but logical shift yet. Although steel alloys may literally have densities that are significantly higher than carbon composites, composites simply cannot (at least in the current state of the art) withstand high temperatures like those that Starship would inevitably experience during orbital and interplanetary reentries. As a result, Starship would need an extremely advanced heat shield technology that is minimally ablative, extremely lightweight, robust, and shock-resistant, not to mention an additional layer capable of mounting it to Starship’s composite hull while also insulating the propellant tanks and structure from the extreme heat of reentry.
Leeward side needs nothing, windward side will be activity cooled with residual (cryo) liquid methane, so will appear liquid silver even on hot side
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 25, 2018
Steel, on the other hand, is one of the least thermally conductive metals available, while also featuring alloys with melting points that can approach and even surpass 1500 degrees C. With regenerative cooling, it’s entirely possible that a hot steel shield and fusion of propellant tanks and load-bearing structures could ultimately result in a spaceship far more reusable, reliable, and perhaps even performant that a spaceship relying on exotic heat shield materials and linerless carbon composite propellant tanks.
Perhaps BFR Block 2 or 3 will make room for dramatically improved composite formulations and production methods down the road, but advanced steel and other metal alloys appear to be the way forward for SpaceX for the time being. For now, we can sit, watch, and wait as something comes together at the company’s South Texas test and launch facilities.
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Tesla has officially launched its first branded Supercharger just months after initiating a new program that allows third-party companies to brand their own charging piles.
The site opened in Land O’ Lakes, Florida, and features eight V4 Supercharging stalls offering up to 325 kW of charging speed. It appears it was purchased by a company called Suncoast Credit Union. This particular branch is located Northeast of Tampa, which is on the Gulf of Mexico.
It features graphics of Florida animals, like alligators:
Here’s a video of the graphics being installed on the Tesla Superchargers at this site: https://t.co/oIfEPNZjAH pic.twitter.com/ENWakZ2qT9
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) November 20, 2025
Tesla launched this program back in September, and it basically was a way to expand its Supercharger presence and also allow companies to pay for the infrastructure. Tesla maintains it. When it announced the “Supercharger for Business,” it said:
“Purchase and install Superchargers at your business. Superchargers are compatible with all electric vehicles, bringing EV drivers to your business by offering convenient, reliable charging.”
The program does a few things. Initially, it expands EV charging infrastructure and makes charging solutions more readily available for drivers. It can also attract people to those businesses specifically.
Tesla launches new Supercharger program that business owners will love
The chargers can also be branded with any logo that the business chooses, which makes them more personalized and also acts as an advertisement.
The best part is that the customers do not have to maintain anything about the Supercharger. Tesla still takes care of it and resolves any issues:
“We treat your site like we treat our sites. By providing you with a full-service package that includes network operations, preventative maintenance, and driver support, we’re able to guarantee 97% uptime–the highest in the industry.”
It appears the Superchargers will also appear within the in-car nav during routing, so they’ll be publicly available to anyone who needs to use them. They are still available to all EVs that have worked with Tesla to utilize its infrastructure, and they are not restricted to people who are only visiting the business.
Tesla has revealed its Cybertruck light bar installation fix after a recall exposed a serious issue with the accessory.
Tesla and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) initiated a recall of 6,197 Cybertrucks back in October to resolve an issue with the Cybertruck light bar accessory. It was an issue with the adhesive that was provided by a Romanian company called Hella Romania S.R.L.
Tesla recalls 6,197 Cybertrucks for light bar adhesive issue
The issue was with the primer quality, as the recall report from the NHTSA had stated the light bar had “inadvertently attached to the windshield using the incorrect surface primer.”
Instead of trying to adhere the light bar to the Cybertruck with an adhesive, Tesla is now going to attach it with a bracketing system, which will physically mount it to the vehicle instead of relying on adhesive strips or glue.
Tesla outlines this in its new Service Bulletin, labeled SB-25-90-001, (spotted by Not a Tesla App) where it shows the light bar will be remounted more securely:
The entire process will take a few hours, but it can be completed by the Mobile Service techs, so if you have a Cybertruck that needs a light bar adjustment, it can be done without taking the vehicle to the Service Center for repair.
However, the repair will only happen if there is no delamination or damage present; then Tesla could “retrofit the service-installed optional off-road light bar accessory with a positive mechanical attachment.”
The company said it would repair the light bar at no charge to customers. The light bar issue was one that did not result in any accidents or injuries, according to the NHTSA’s report.
This was the third recall on Cybertruck this year, as one was highlighted in March for exterior trim panels detaching during operation. Another had to do with front parking lights being too bright, which was fixed with an Over-the-Air update last month.
News
Tesla is already expanding its Rental program aggressively
The program has already launched in a handful of locations, specifically, it has been confined to California for now. However, it does not seem like Tesla has any interest in keeping it restricted to the Golden State.
Tesla is looking to expand its Rental Program aggressively, just weeks after the program was first spotted on its Careers website.
Earlier this month, we reported on Tesla’s intention to launch a crazy new Rental program with cheap daily rates, which would give people in various locations the opportunity to borrow a vehicle in the company’s lineup with some outrageous perks.
Along with the cheap rates that start at about $60 per day, Tesla also provides free Full Self-Driving operation and free Supercharging for the duration of the rental. There are also no limits on mileage or charging, but the terms do not allow the renter to leave the state from which they are renting.
🚨🚨 If you look up details on the Tesla Rental program on Google, you’ll see a bunch of sites saying it’s because of decreasing demand 🤣 pic.twitter.com/WlSQrDJhMg
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) November 10, 2025
The program has already launched in a handful of locations, specifically, it has been confined to California for now. However, it does not seem like Tesla has any interest in keeping it restricted to the Golden State.
Job postings from Tesla now show it is planning to launch the Rental program in at least three new states: Texas, Tennessee, and Massachusetts.
The jobs specifically are listed as a Rental Readiness Specialist, which lists the following job description:
“The Tesla Rental Program is looking for a Rental Readiness Specialist to work on one of the most progressive vehicle brands in the world. The Rental Readiness Specialist is a key contributor to the Tesla experience by coordinating the receipt of incoming new and used vehicle inventory. This position is responsible for fleet/lot management, movement of vehicles, vehicle readiness, rental invoicing, and customer hand-off. Candidates must have a high level of accountability, and personal satisfaction in doing a great job.”
It also says that those who take the position will have to charge and clean the cars, work with clients on scheduling pickups and drop-offs, and prepare the paperwork necessary to initiate the rental.
The establishment of a Rental program is big for Tesla because it not only gives people the opportunity to experience the vehicles, but it is also a new way to rent a car.
Just as the Tesla purchasing process is more streamlined and more efficient than the traditional car-buying experience, it seems this could be less painful and a new way to borrow a car for a trip instead of using your own.
Tesla launches its new branded Supercharger for Business with first active station
Tesla reveals its Cybertruck light bar installation fix
