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SpaceX’s Elon Musk: odds of Starship reaching orbit by 2020 are “rising rapidly”

Starship is visualized here landing on Mars. Initial Texas hop tests will likely look similar, albeit in Earth gravity and over concrete. (SpaceX)

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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has suggested that the company’s newly revamped Starship and Super Heavy rocket (previously known as BFR) could perform its first integrated launches – placing Starship into orbit – as few as 12-24 months from today.

Musk indicated that the odds of Starship reaching orbit as early as 2020 are now as high as “60% [and] rising rapidly”, thanks in no small part to the flurry of radical changes the spacecraft and booster have both undergone over the course of 2018.

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Combined with a decision – made public at a September 2018 media event – to delay the debut of a vacuum-optimized upper stage Raptor (RVac) and stick with its mature sea level variant, Musk apparently is quite confident that these dramatic shifts in strategy will allow SpaceX to aggressively slash the development schedules of its next-gen launch vehicle. Intriguingly, Musk noted that while these “radical” design changes were almost entirely motivated by his desire to expedite the fully-reusable rocket’s operational debut, it apparently became clear that the cheaper, faster, and easier iteration could actually end up being (in Musk’s own words) “dramatically better” than its exotic carbon-composite progenitor.

BFS arrives at Mars. (SpaceX)

“Delightfully counter-intuitive”

Let there be little doubt – I am still immensely skeptical of this radical redesign and the implausible logistics of conducting said redesign at the last second while somehow maintaining the test schedule, let alone expediting it by 6-9 months. Despite the fact that Musk does seem to have a compellingly rational answer to every question thus far asked, he was no less convincing in mid-2016 when he stated with contagious conviction that Tesla’s Fremont factory would be an almost 100%-automated “alien dreadnought” as early as 2018. There is, of course, nothing wrong per se with being wrong, although taking 24 months and several hundred million dollars to realize as much can be downright fatal or at least a major health risk for any given company that faces such a challenge, as was the case with Tesla.

Skepticism aside, there are equally many reasons to be optimistic about the future of SpaceX’s Starship/Super Heavy (BFR) program over the next several years. Not only do metal hot structures have a proven track record of success (admittedly in the 1960s and for suborbital conditions, but still), but the century and a half humans have been making and building with steel serves to aggressively reduce risk in BFR’s development, whereas a giant, highly-reusable spaceship and rocket built mainly out of carbon composites is about as exotic, challenging, and alien as one could muster. One step further, Musk appears to be dead-set on the trade that the benefits of moving from composite to stainless steel far, far outweigh the costs.

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Most notably, Musk’s implication that a steel alloy skin – albeit with regenerative (i.e. liquid) cooling – could genuinely stand in for SpaceX’s ablative PICA-X heat shield technology on Starship was the most unintuitive but logical shift yet. Although steel alloys may literally have densities that are significantly higher than carbon composites, composites simply cannot (at least in the current state of the art) withstand high temperatures like those that Starship would inevitably experience during orbital and interplanetary reentries. As a result, Starship would need an extremely advanced heat shield technology that is minimally ablative, extremely lightweight, robust, and shock-resistant, not to mention an additional layer capable of mounting it to Starship’s composite hull while also insulating the propellant tanks and structure from the extreme heat of reentry.

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Steel, on the other hand, is one of the least thermally conductive metals available, while also featuring alloys with melting points that can approach and even surpass 1500 degrees C. With regenerative cooling, it’s entirely possible that a hot steel shield and fusion of propellant tanks and load-bearing structures could ultimately result in a spaceship far more reusable, reliable, and perhaps even performant that a spaceship relying on exotic heat shield materials and linerless carbon composite propellant tanks.

Perhaps BFR Block 2 or 3 will make room for dramatically improved composite formulations and production methods down the road, but advanced steel and other metal alloys appear to be the way forward for SpaceX for the time being. For now, we can sit, watch, and wait as something comes together at the company’s South Texas test and launch facilities.


For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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SpaceX blocks unauthorized Starlink terminals used by Russian troops

Ukrainian officials confirmed that Starlink terminals believed to be used by Russian troops were disabled after coordination with SpaceX.

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Starlink-india-license-delay
(Credit: Starlink/X)

SpaceX has taken steps to block unauthorized use of its Starlink satellite internet network, a move Ukrainian officials stated is already disrupting Russian military communications. 

Russian units lose a key communications tool

As per a report from The Guardian, Ukrainian defense officials have confirmed that Starlink terminals believed to be used by Russian troops were recently disabled after coordination with SpaceX. The move reportedly affected frontline communications and drone operations, especially in areas where traditional military radios are unreliable or easily jammed.

For months, Russian units had relied on large numbers of illicitly obtained Starlink terminals to stay connected along the front. The satellite internet service allowed faster coordination and more precise drone use for Russian forces.

Several Russian military bloggers close to frontline units have acknowledged the impact of the Starlink shutdown, with some describing sudden connectivity problems in the satellite internet service.

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Russia lacks comparable replacement

Russia does not have a satellite internet system that matches Starlink’s speed, coverage, and ease of deployment. Alternatives such as fiber-optic lines, short-range wireless links, and digital radio systems take longer to install and work inadequately for fast-moving units.

Russia does operate limited satellite communications through state-linked providers, but those systems rely mainly on geostationary satellites, which are notably slower. Coverage is uneven, and data capacity is far lower than Starlink’s low-Earth-orbit network.

For now, Ukraine has stated that it has introduced a verification system that allows only approved Starlink terminals to connect. Devices believed to be linked to Russian forces are blocked from the network. That being said, Ukrainian officials have also claimed Russian units are trying to work around the restrictions by asking civilians to register Starlink terminals in their names. 

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Tesla Semi pricing revealed after company uncovers trim levels

This is a step up from the prices that were revealed back in 2017, but with inflation and other factors, it is no surprise Tesla could not come through on the numbers it planned to offer nine years ago. When the Semi was unveiled in November 2017, Tesla had three pricing levels:

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Semi pricing appears to have been revealed after the company started communicating with the entities interested in purchasing its all-electric truck. The pricing details come just days after Tesla revealed it planned to offer two trim levels and uncovered the specs of each.

After CEO Elon Musk said the Semi would enter volume production this year, Tesla revealed trim levels shortly thereafter. Offering a Standard Range and a Long Range trim will fit the needs of many companies that plan to use the truck for local and regional deliveries.

Tesla Semi lines up for $165M in California incentives ahead of mass production

It will also be a good competitor to the all-electric semi trucks already available from companies like Volvo.

With the release of specs, Tesla helped companies see the big picture in terms of what the Semi could do to benefit their business. However, pricing information was not available.

A new report from Electrek states that Tesla has been communicating with those interested companies and is pricing the Standard Range at $250,000 per unit, while the Long Range is priced at $290,000. These prices come before taxes and destination fees.

This is a step up from the prices that were revealed back in 2017, but with inflation and other factors, it is no surprise Tesla could not come through on the numbers it planned to offer nine years ago. When the Semi was unveiled in November 2017, Tesla had three pricing levels:

  • $150,000 for a 300-mile range version
  • $180,000 for a 500-mile range version
  • $200,000 for a limited “Founders Series” edition; full upfront payment required for priority production and limited to just 1,000 units

Tesla has not officially released any specific information regarding pricing on the Semi, but it is not surprising that it has not done so. The Semi is a vehicle that will be built for businesses, and pricing information is usually reserved for those who place reservations. This goes for most products of this nature.

The Semi will be built at a new, dedicated production facility in Sparks, Nevada, which Tesla broke ground on in 2024. The factory was nearly complete in late 2025, and executives confirmed that the first “online builds” were targeted for that same time.

Meaningful output is scheduled for this year, as Musk reiterated earlier this week that it would enter mass production this year. At full capacity, the factory will build 50,000 units annually.

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Tesla executive moves on after 13 years: ‘It has been a privilege to serve’

“It is challenging to encapsulate 13 years in a single post. The journey at Tesla has been one of continuous evolution. From the technical intricacies of designing, building, and operating one of the world’s largest AI clusters to impactful contributions in IT, Security, Sales, and Service, it has been a privilege to serve,” Jegannathan said in the post.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla executive Raj Jegannathan is moving on from the company after 13 years, he announced on LinkedIn on Monday.

“It is challenging to encapsulate 13 years in a single post. The journey at Tesla has been one of continuous evolution. From the technical intricacies of designing, building, and operating one of the world’s largest AI clusters to impactful contributions in IT, Security, Sales, and Service, it has been a privilege to serve,” Jegannathan said in the post.

After starting as a Senior Staff Engineer in Fremont back in November 2012, Jegannathan slowly worked his way through the ranks at Tesla. His most recent role was Vice President of IT/AI Infrastructure, Business Apps, and Infosec.

However, it was reported last year that Jegannathan had taken on a new role, which was running the North American sales team following the departure of Troy Jones, who had held the position previously.

While Jegannathan’s LinkedIn does not mention this position specifically, it seemed to be accurate, considering Tesla had not explicitly promoted any other person to the role.

It is a big loss for Tesla, but not a destructive departure. Jegannathan was one of the few company executives who answered customer and fan questions on X, a unique part of the Tesla ownership experience.

Tesla to offer Full Self-Driving gifting program: here’s how it will work

It currently remains unclear if Jegannathan was removed from the position or if he left under his own accord.

“As I move on, I do so with a full heart and excitement for what lies ahead. Thank you, Tesla, for this wonderful opportunity!” he concluded.

The departure marks a continuing trend of executives leaving the company, as the past 24 months have seen some significant turnover at the executive level.

Tesla has shown persistently elevated executive turnover over the past two years, as names like Drew Baglino, Rohan Patel, Rebecca Tinucci, Daniel Ho, Omead Afshar, Milan Kovac, and Siddhant Awasthi have all been notable names to exit the company in the past two years.

There are several things that could contribute to this. Many skeptics will point to Elon Musk’s politics, but that is not necessarily the case.

Tesla is a difficult, but rewarding place to work. It is a company that requires a lot of commitment, and those who are halfway in might not choose to stick around. Sacrificing things like time with family might not outweigh the demands of Tesla and Musk.

Additionally, many of these executives have made a considerable amount of money thanks to stock packages the company offers to employees. While many might be looking for new opportunities, some might be interested in an early retirement.

Tesla is also in the process of transitioning away from its most notable division, automotive. While it still plans to manufacture cars in the millions, it is turning more focus toward robotics and autonomy, and these plans might not align with what some executives might want for themselves. There are a wide variety of factors in the decision to leave a job, so it is important not to immediately jump to controversy.

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