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SpaceX’s Elon Musk: odds of Starship reaching orbit by 2020 are “rising rapidly”
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has suggested that the company’s newly revamped Starship and Super Heavy rocket (previously known as BFR) could perform its first integrated launches – placing Starship into orbit – as few as 12-24 months from today.
Musk indicated that the odds of Starship reaching orbit as early as 2020 are now as high as “60% [and] rising rapidly”, thanks in no small part to the flurry of radical changes the spacecraft and booster have both undergone over the course of 2018.
Probability at 60% & rising rapidly due to new architecture
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 27, 2018
Combined with a decision – made public at a September 2018 media event – to delay the debut of a vacuum-optimized upper stage Raptor (RVac) and stick with its mature sea level variant, Musk apparently is quite confident that these dramatic shifts in strategy will allow SpaceX to aggressively slash the development schedules of its next-gen launch vehicle. Intriguingly, Musk noted that while these “radical” design changes were almost entirely motivated by his desire to expedite the fully-reusable rocket’s operational debut, it apparently became clear that the cheaper, faster, and easier iteration could actually end up being (in Musk’s own words) “dramatically better” than its exotic carbon-composite progenitor.
Time. Although it also turned out to be dramatically better.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 27, 2018
“Delightfully counter-intuitive”
Let there be little doubt – I am still immensely skeptical of this radical redesign and the implausible logistics of conducting said redesign at the last second while somehow maintaining the test schedule, let alone expediting it by 6-9 months. Despite the fact that Musk does seem to have a compellingly rational answer to every question thus far asked, he was no less convincing in mid-2016 when he stated with contagious conviction that Tesla’s Fremont factory would be an almost 100%-automated “alien dreadnought” as early as 2018. There is, of course, nothing wrong per se with being wrong, although taking 24 months and several hundred million dollars to realize as much can be downright fatal or at least a major health risk for any given company that faces such a challenge, as was the case with Tesla.
Skepticism aside, there are equally many reasons to be optimistic about the future of SpaceX’s Starship/Super Heavy (BFR) program over the next several years. Not only do metal hot structures have a proven track record of success (admittedly in the 1960s and for suborbital conditions, but still), but the century and a half humans have been making and building with steel serves to aggressively reduce risk in BFR’s development, whereas a giant, highly-reusable spaceship and rocket built mainly out of carbon composites is about as exotic, challenging, and alien as one could muster. One step further, Musk appears to be dead-set on the trade that the benefits of moving from composite to stainless steel far, far outweigh the costs.
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- BFS/Starship shows off some of its heat shield. SpaceX may be looking into an advanced NASA solution for BFR’s thermal protection system. (SpaceX)
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- Starship is shown here reentering Mars’ atmosphere at high speeds (SpaceX)
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- Starship – in its 2018 design iteration – seen landing on Mars atop pillars of Raptor flame. (SpaceX)
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- SpaceX CEO Elon Musk visited the South Texas site where Starship’s first prototype is being built on December 23rd. (Elon Musk)
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- Starship… or BFWTF? 🙂 (NASASpaceflight /u/bocachicagal)
Most notably, Musk’s implication that a steel alloy skin – albeit with regenerative (i.e. liquid) cooling – could genuinely stand in for SpaceX’s ablative PICA-X heat shield technology on Starship was the most unintuitive but logical shift yet. Although steel alloys may literally have densities that are significantly higher than carbon composites, composites simply cannot (at least in the current state of the art) withstand high temperatures like those that Starship would inevitably experience during orbital and interplanetary reentries. As a result, Starship would need an extremely advanced heat shield technology that is minimally ablative, extremely lightweight, robust, and shock-resistant, not to mention an additional layer capable of mounting it to Starship’s composite hull while also insulating the propellant tanks and structure from the extreme heat of reentry.
Leeward side needs nothing, windward side will be activity cooled with residual (cryo) liquid methane, so will appear liquid silver even on hot side
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 25, 2018
Steel, on the other hand, is one of the least thermally conductive metals available, while also featuring alloys with melting points that can approach and even surpass 1500 degrees C. With regenerative cooling, it’s entirely possible that a hot steel shield and fusion of propellant tanks and load-bearing structures could ultimately result in a spaceship far more reusable, reliable, and perhaps even performant that a spaceship relying on exotic heat shield materials and linerless carbon composite propellant tanks.
Perhaps BFR Block 2 or 3 will make room for dramatically improved composite formulations and production methods down the road, but advanced steel and other metal alloys appear to be the way forward for SpaceX for the time being. For now, we can sit, watch, and wait as something comes together at the company’s South Texas test and launch facilities.
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Elon Musk
Tesla announces closure date on widely controversial Full Self-Driving program
Tesla has said that it will officially bring closure to its free Full Self-Driving transfer program on March 31, 2026, giving owners until the end of the quarter to move their driving suite to another vehicle with no additional cost.
Tesla has officially announced a closure date for a widely controversial Full Self-Driving program, which has been among the most discussed pieces of the driving suite for years.
The move comes just after the company confirmed it would no longer offer the option to purchase the suite outright, instead opting for a subscription-based platform that will be available in mid-February.
Tesla has said that it will officially bring closure to its free Full Self-Driving transfer program on March 31, 2026, giving owners until the end of the quarter to move their driving suite to another vehicle with no additional cost.
NEWS: Tesla has started to inform customers in the U.S. that free FSD transfer will end on March 31, 2026.
Tesla has previously said free FSD transfers would end “that quarter,” but this is the first time in many quarters they’ve communicated a specific end date. Time will tell… pic.twitter.com/iCKDvGuBds
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) January 18, 2026
After that date, Tesla owners who purchased the FSD suite outright will have to adopt the exclusive subscription-only program, which will be the only option available after February 14.
CEO Elon Musk announced earlier this month that Tesla would be ending the option to purchase Full Self-Driving outright, but the reasoning for this decision is unknown.
However, there has been a lot of speculation that Tesla could offer a new tiered program, which would potentially lower the price of the suite and increase the take rate.
Tesla is shifting FSD to a subscription-only model, confirms Elon Musk
Others have mentioned something like a pay-per-mile platform that would charge drivers based on usage, which seems to be advantageous for those who still love to drive their cars but enjoy using FSD for longer trips, as it can take the stress out of driving.
Moving forward, Tesla seems to be taking any strategy it can to increase the number of owners who utilize FSD, especially as it is explicitly mentioned in Musk’s new compensation package, which was approved last year.
Musk is responsible for getting at least 10 million active Full Self-Driving subscriptions in one tranche, while another would require the company to deliver 20 million vehicles cumulatively.
The current FSD take rate is somewhere around 12 percent, as the company revealed during the Q3 2025 Earnings Call. Tesla needs to bump this up considerably, and the move to rid itself of the outright purchase option seems to be a move to get things going in the right direction.
News
Tesla Model Y leads South Korea’s EV growth in 2025
Data from the Korea Automobile and Mobility Industry Association showed that the Tesla Model Y emerged as one of the segment’s single biggest growth drivers.
South Korea’s electric vehicle market saw a notable rise in 2025, with registrations rising more than 50% and EV penetration surpassing 10% for the first time.
Data from the Korea Automobile and Mobility Industry Association showed that the Tesla Model Y, which is imported from Gigafactory Shanghai, emerged as one of the segment’s single biggest growth drivers, as noted in a report from IT Home News.
As per the Korea Automobile and Mobility Industry Association’s (KAMA) 2025 Korea Domestic Electric Vehicle Market Settlement report, South Korea registered 220,177 new electric vehicles in 2025, a 50.1% year-over-year increase. EV penetration also reached 13.1% in the country, entering double digits for the first time.
The Tesla Model Y played a central role in the market’s growth. The Model Y alone sold 50,397 units during the year, capturing 26.6% of South Korea’s pure electric passenger vehicle market. Sales of the Giga Shanghai-built Model Y increased 169.2% compared with 2024, driven largely by strong demand for the all-electric crossover’s revamped version.
Manufacturer performance reflected a tightly contested market. Kia led with 60,609 EV sales, followed closely by Tesla at 59,893 units and Hyundai at 55,461 units. Together, the three brands accounted for nearly 80% of the country’s total EV sales, forming what KAMA described as a three-way competitive market.
Imported EVs gained ground in South Korea in 2025, reaching a market share of 42.8%, while the share of domestically produced EVs declined from 75% in 2022 to 57.2% last year. Sales of China-made EVs more than doubled year over year to 74,728 units, supported in no small part by Tesla and its Model Y.
Elon Musk, for his part, has praised South Korean customers and their embrace of the electric vehicler maker. In a reply on X to a user who noted that South Koreans are fond of FSD, Musk stated that, “Koreans are often a step ahead in appreciating new technology.”
News
Samsung’s Tesla AI5/AI6 chip factory to start key equipment tests in March: report
Samsung Electronics seems to be ramping its efforts to start operations at its Taylor, Texas semiconductor plant.
Samsung Electronics seems to be ramping its efforts to start operations at its Taylor, Texas semiconductor plant, which will produce Tesla’s next-generation AI5 chip.
Preparing for Tesla’s AI5/AI6 chips
As per a report by Sina Finance, Samsung Electronics is looking to begin trial operations of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment at its Taylor facility in March. These efforts are reportedly intended to support the full production of Tesla’s AI5 chips starting in the latter half of 2026.
The Taylor factory, Samsung’s first wafer fabrication plant in the United States, covers roughly 4.85 million square meters and is nearing completion. Media reports, citing contractors, have estimated that about 7,000 workers now work on the factory, about 1,000 of whom are reportedly working from the facility’s office building.
Samsung is reportedly preparing to apply for a temporary occupancy permit, which would allow production to begin before the plant is fully completed.
Tesla’s aggressive AI chip roadmap
Elon Musk recently stated that Tesla’s next-generation AI5 chip is nearly complete, while early development on its successor, AI6, is already underway. Musk shared the update in a post on X, which also happened to be a recruiting message for engineers.
As per Musk, Tesla is looking to iterate its in-house AI chips on an accelerated timeline, with future generations, including AI7, AI8, and AI9, targeting a roughly nine-month design cycle. He also stated that the rapid cadence could allow Tesla’s chips to become the highest-volume AI processors in the world.
Previous reports have indicated that Samsung Electronics would be manufacturing Tesla’s AI5 chip, alongside its rival, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). The two suppliers are expected to produce different versions of Tesla’s AI5 chip, with TSMC using a 3nm process and Samsung targeting 2nm production.
Tesla announces closure date on widely controversial Full Self-Driving program
Tesla Model Y leads South Korea’s EV growth in 2025
