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SpaceX’s Elon Musk: odds of Starship reaching orbit by 2020 are “rising rapidly”

Starship is visualized here landing on Mars. Initial Texas hop tests will likely look similar, albeit in Earth gravity and over concrete. (SpaceX)

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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has suggested that the company’s newly revamped Starship and Super Heavy rocket (previously known as BFR) could perform its first integrated launches – placing Starship into orbit – as few as 12-24 months from today.

Musk indicated that the odds of Starship reaching orbit as early as 2020 are now as high as “60% [and] rising rapidly”, thanks in no small part to the flurry of radical changes the spacecraft and booster have both undergone over the course of 2018.

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Combined with a decision – made public at a September 2018 media event – to delay the debut of a vacuum-optimized upper stage Raptor (RVac) and stick with its mature sea level variant, Musk apparently is quite confident that these dramatic shifts in strategy will allow SpaceX to aggressively slash the development schedules of its next-gen launch vehicle. Intriguingly, Musk noted that while these “radical” design changes were almost entirely motivated by his desire to expedite the fully-reusable rocket’s operational debut, it apparently became clear that the cheaper, faster, and easier iteration could actually end up being (in Musk’s own words) “dramatically better” than its exotic carbon-composite progenitor.

BFS arrives at Mars. (SpaceX)

“Delightfully counter-intuitive”

Let there be little doubt – I am still immensely skeptical of this radical redesign and the implausible logistics of conducting said redesign at the last second while somehow maintaining the test schedule, let alone expediting it by 6-9 months. Despite the fact that Musk does seem to have a compellingly rational answer to every question thus far asked, he was no less convincing in mid-2016 when he stated with contagious conviction that Tesla’s Fremont factory would be an almost 100%-automated “alien dreadnought” as early as 2018. There is, of course, nothing wrong per se with being wrong, although taking 24 months and several hundred million dollars to realize as much can be downright fatal or at least a major health risk for any given company that faces such a challenge, as was the case with Tesla.

Skepticism aside, there are equally many reasons to be optimistic about the future of SpaceX’s Starship/Super Heavy (BFR) program over the next several years. Not only do metal hot structures have a proven track record of success (admittedly in the 1960s and for suborbital conditions, but still), but the century and a half humans have been making and building with steel serves to aggressively reduce risk in BFR’s development, whereas a giant, highly-reusable spaceship and rocket built mainly out of carbon composites is about as exotic, challenging, and alien as one could muster. One step further, Musk appears to be dead-set on the trade that the benefits of moving from composite to stainless steel far, far outweigh the costs.

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Most notably, Musk’s implication that a steel alloy skin – albeit with regenerative (i.e. liquid) cooling – could genuinely stand in for SpaceX’s ablative PICA-X heat shield technology on Starship was the most unintuitive but logical shift yet. Although steel alloys may literally have densities that are significantly higher than carbon composites, composites simply cannot (at least in the current state of the art) withstand high temperatures like those that Starship would inevitably experience during orbital and interplanetary reentries. As a result, Starship would need an extremely advanced heat shield technology that is minimally ablative, extremely lightweight, robust, and shock-resistant, not to mention an additional layer capable of mounting it to Starship’s composite hull while also insulating the propellant tanks and structure from the extreme heat of reentry.

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Steel, on the other hand, is one of the least thermally conductive metals available, while also featuring alloys with melting points that can approach and even surpass 1500 degrees C. With regenerative cooling, it’s entirely possible that a hot steel shield and fusion of propellant tanks and load-bearing structures could ultimately result in a spaceship far more reusable, reliable, and perhaps even performant that a spaceship relying on exotic heat shield materials and linerless carbon composite propellant tanks.

Perhaps BFR Block 2 or 3 will make room for dramatically improved composite formulations and production methods down the road, but advanced steel and other metal alloys appear to be the way forward for SpaceX for the time being. For now, we can sit, watch, and wait as something comes together at the company’s South Texas test and launch facilities.


For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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SpaceX and xAI tapped by Pentagon for autonomous drone contest

The six-month competition was launched in January and is said to carry a $100 million award.

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Credit: SpaceX/X

SpaceX and its AI subsidiary xAI are reportedly competing in a new Pentagon prize challenge focused on autonomous drone swarming technology, as per a report from Bloomberg News

The six-month competition was launched in January and is said to carry a $100 million award.

Bloomberg reported that SpaceX and xAI are among a select group invited to participate in the Defense Department’s effort to develop advanced drone swarming capabilities. The goal is reportedly to create systems that can translate voice commands into digital instructions and manage fleets of autonomous drones.

Neither SpaceX, xAI, nor the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit has commented on the report, and Reuters said it could not independently verify the details.

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The development follows SpaceX’s recent acquisition of xAI, which pushed the valuation of the combined companies to an impressive $1.25 trillion. The reported competition comes as SpaceX prepares for a potential initial public offering later this year.

The Pentagon has been moving to speed up drone deployment and expand domestic manufacturing capacity, while also seeking tools to counter unauthorized drone activity around airports and major public events. Large-scale gatherings scheduled this year, including the FIFA World Cup and America250 celebrations, have heightened focus on aerial security.

The reported challenge aligns with broader Defense Department investments in artificial intelligence. Last year, OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and xAI secured Pentagon contracts worth up to $200 million each to advance AI capabilities across defense applications.

Elon Musk previously joined AI and robotics researchers in signing a 2015 open letter calling for a ban on offensive autonomous weapons. In recent years, however, Musk has spoken on X about the strengths of drone technologies in combat situations.

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Doug DeMuro names Tesla Model S the Most Important Car of the last 30 years

In a recent video, the noted reviewer stated that the choice was “not even a question.”

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Popular automotive reviewer and YouTuber Doug DeMuro has named the 2012 Tesla Model S as the most important car of the last 30 years.

In a recent video, the noted reviewer stated that the choice was “not even a question,” arguing that the Model S did more to change the trajectory of the auto industry than any other vehicle released since the mid-1990s.

“Unquestionably in my mind, the number one most important car of the last 30 years… it’s not even a question,” DeMuro said. “The 2012 Tesla Model S. There is no doubt that that is the most important car of the last 30 years.”

DeMuro acknowledged that electric vehicle adoption has faced recent headwinds. Still, he maintained that long-term electrification is inevitable.

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“If you’re a rational person who’s truthful with yourself, you know that the future is electric… whether it’s 10, 20, 30 years, the future will be electric, and it was the Model S that was the very first car that did that truthfully,” he said.

While earlier EVs like the Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt arrived before the Model S, DeMuro argued that they did not fundamentally shift public perception. The Model S proved that EVs “could be cool, could be fast, could be luxurious, could be for enthusiasts.” It showed that buyers did not have to make major compromises to drive electric.

He also described the Model S as a cultural turning point. Tesla became more than a car company. The brand expanded into Superchargers, home energy products, and a broader tech identity.

DeMuro noted that the Leaf and Volt “made a huge splash and taught us that it was possible.” However, he drew a distinction between being first and bringing a technology into the mainstream.

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“It’s rarely about the car that does it first. It’s about the car that brings it into the mainstream,” he said. “The Model S was the car that actually won the game even though the Leaf and Volt scored the first.”

He added that perhaps the Model S’ most surprising achievement was proving that a new American automaker could succeed. For decades, industry observers believed the infrastructure and capital requirements made that nearly impossible.

“For decades, it was generally agreed that there would never be another competitive American car company because the infrastructure and the investment required to start up another American car company as just too challenging… It was just a given basically that you couldn’t do it. And not only did they go it, but they created a cultural icon… That car just truly changed the world,” he said. 

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Elon Musk doubles down on Tesla Cybercab timeline once again

“Cybercab, which has no pedals or steering wheel, starts production in April,” Musk said.

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Credit: @JT59052914/X

CEO Elon Musk doubled down once again on the timeline of production for the Tesla Cybercab, marking yet another example of the confidence he has in the company’s ability to meet the aggressive timeline for the vehicle.

It is the third time in the past six months that Musk has explicitly stated Cybercab will enter production in April 2026.

On Monday morning, Musk reiterated that Cybercab will enter its initial manufacturing phase in April, and that it would not have any pedals or a steering wheel, two things that have been speculated as potential elements of the vehicle, if needed.

Musk has been known to be aggressive with timelines, and some products have been teased for years and years before they finally come to fruition.

One of perhaps the biggest complaints about Musk is the fact that Tesla does not normally reach the deadlines that are set: the Roadster, Semi, and Unsupervised Full Self-Driving suite are a few of those that have been given “end of this year” timelines, but have not been fulfilled.

Nevertheless, many are able to look past this as part of the process. New technology takes time to develop, but we’d rather not hear about when, and just the progress itself.

However, the Cybercab is a bit different. Musk has said three times in the past six months that Cybercab will be built in April, and this is something that is sort of out of the ordinary for him.

In December 2025, he said that Tesla was “testing the production system” of the vehicle and that “real production ramp starts in April.

Elon Musk shares incredible detail about Tesla Cybercab efficiency

On January 23, he said that “Cybercab production starts in April.” He did the same on February 16, marking yet another occasion that Musk has his sights set on April for initial production of the vehicle.

Musk has also tempered expectations for the Cybercab’s initial production phase. In January, he noted that Cybercab would be subjected to the S-curve-type production speed:

“…initial production is always very slow and follows an S-curve. The speed of production ramp is inversely proportionate to how many new parts and steps there are. For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow, but eventually end up being insanely fast.”

Cybercab will be a huge part of Tesla’s autonomous ride-sharing plans moving forward.

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