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SpaceX’s Elon Musk: odds of Starship reaching orbit by 2020 are “rising rapidly”

Starship is visualized here landing on Mars. Initial Texas hop tests will likely look similar, albeit in Earth gravity and over concrete. (SpaceX)

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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has suggested that the company’s newly revamped Starship and Super Heavy rocket (previously known as BFR) could perform its first integrated launches – placing Starship into orbit – as few as 12-24 months from today.

Musk indicated that the odds of Starship reaching orbit as early as 2020 are now as high as “60% [and] rising rapidly”, thanks in no small part to the flurry of radical changes the spacecraft and booster have both undergone over the course of 2018.

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Combined with a decision – made public at a September 2018 media event – to delay the debut of a vacuum-optimized upper stage Raptor (RVac) and stick with its mature sea level variant, Musk apparently is quite confident that these dramatic shifts in strategy will allow SpaceX to aggressively slash the development schedules of its next-gen launch vehicle. Intriguingly, Musk noted that while these “radical” design changes were almost entirely motivated by his desire to expedite the fully-reusable rocket’s operational debut, it apparently became clear that the cheaper, faster, and easier iteration could actually end up being (in Musk’s own words) “dramatically better” than its exotic carbon-composite progenitor.

BFS arrives at Mars. (SpaceX)

“Delightfully counter-intuitive”

Let there be little doubt – I am still immensely skeptical of this radical redesign and the implausible logistics of conducting said redesign at the last second while somehow maintaining the test schedule, let alone expediting it by 6-9 months. Despite the fact that Musk does seem to have a compellingly rational answer to every question thus far asked, he was no less convincing in mid-2016 when he stated with contagious conviction that Tesla’s Fremont factory would be an almost 100%-automated “alien dreadnought” as early as 2018. There is, of course, nothing wrong per se with being wrong, although taking 24 months and several hundred million dollars to realize as much can be downright fatal or at least a major health risk for any given company that faces such a challenge, as was the case with Tesla.

Skepticism aside, there are equally many reasons to be optimistic about the future of SpaceX’s Starship/Super Heavy (BFR) program over the next several years. Not only do metal hot structures have a proven track record of success (admittedly in the 1960s and for suborbital conditions, but still), but the century and a half humans have been making and building with steel serves to aggressively reduce risk in BFR’s development, whereas a giant, highly-reusable spaceship and rocket built mainly out of carbon composites is about as exotic, challenging, and alien as one could muster. One step further, Musk appears to be dead-set on the trade that the benefits of moving from composite to stainless steel far, far outweigh the costs.

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Most notably, Musk’s implication that a steel alloy skin – albeit with regenerative (i.e. liquid) cooling – could genuinely stand in for SpaceX’s ablative PICA-X heat shield technology on Starship was the most unintuitive but logical shift yet. Although steel alloys may literally have densities that are significantly higher than carbon composites, composites simply cannot (at least in the current state of the art) withstand high temperatures like those that Starship would inevitably experience during orbital and interplanetary reentries. As a result, Starship would need an extremely advanced heat shield technology that is minimally ablative, extremely lightweight, robust, and shock-resistant, not to mention an additional layer capable of mounting it to Starship’s composite hull while also insulating the propellant tanks and structure from the extreme heat of reentry.

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Steel, on the other hand, is one of the least thermally conductive metals available, while also featuring alloys with melting points that can approach and even surpass 1500 degrees C. With regenerative cooling, it’s entirely possible that a hot steel shield and fusion of propellant tanks and load-bearing structures could ultimately result in a spaceship far more reusable, reliable, and perhaps even performant that a spaceship relying on exotic heat shield materials and linerless carbon composite propellant tanks.

Perhaps BFR Block 2 or 3 will make room for dramatically improved composite formulations and production methods down the road, but advanced steel and other metal alloys appear to be the way forward for SpaceX for the time being. For now, we can sit, watch, and wait as something comes together at the company’s South Texas test and launch facilities.


For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk’s Boring Co. Tunnel Vision Challenge ends with a surprise for Louisiana, Maryland and Dallas

The Boring Company stunned three cities today, awarding New Orleans, Baltimore, and Dallas free underground Loop tunnels.

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Elon Musk’s The Boring Company (TBC) announced today that it is building free underground Loop tunnels in three American cities: New Orleans, Louisiana; Baltimore, Maryland; and Dallas, Texas. The company had promised one winner when it launched the Tunnel Vision Challenge in January. After receiving 487 submissions, it selected three, committing to fund and construct all of them pending a feasibility review, entirely at its own expense. For a company that has faced years of skepticism over the gap between its promises and its delivered projects, choosing to expand its commitment rather than narrow it is a notable shift in both scale and accountability.

All three projects will now enter a rigorous, fully funded diligence phase that includes meetings with elected officials, regulators, community and business leaders, geotechnical borings, and a complete investigation of subsurface utilities and infrastructure. TBC confirmed that all costs associated with this diligence process are 100% funded by the company. If all three projects pass feasibility, all three get built. If only one clears the bar, that one gets built. The company’s willingness to fund the due diligence regardless of outcome removes one of the most common early-stage barriers that kills promising infrastructure proposals before they leave a spreadsheet.

Beyond the three winners, TBC announced it will continue working with two additional entrants it found compelling enough to pursue independently: the Hendersonville Utility Tunnel in Hendersonville, Tennessee, and the Morgan’s Wonderland Tunnel in San Antonio, Texas, which would notably serve one of the nation’s premier theme parks built specifically for guests with special needs.

The challenge also coincides with TBC’s most active construction period to date. The company recently began drilling on the Music City Loop near the Tennessee State Capitol in Nashville, and in February it broke ground on a Loop in Dubai. Musk has long argued that the fundamental problem with urban infrastructure is cost and bureaucratic inertia, not engineering. “The key to solving traffic is making going 3D either up or down,” he said in 2018, a conviction now reflected in a company structure built to absorb the financial risk that typically stalls public projects for years.

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Music City Loop could highlight The Boring Company’s real disruption

The Tunnel Vision Challenge’s most underappreciated element may be what it produced beyond three winners. Submissions came from individuals, companies, and governments across states including Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, New York, and Texas, as well as from international entrants. Musk captured the underlying logic years ago when he said, “Traffic is driving me nuts. I’m going to build a tunnel boring machine and just start digging.” Today, three American cities are counting on exactly that.

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Tesla launches first ‘true’ East Coast V4 Supercharger: here’s what that means

What truly distinguishes this installation from the hundreds of “V4” stalls already scattered across the network? Most existing V4 dispensers, rolled out since 2023, feature welcome upgrades like longer cables, built-in touchscreen displays, integrated credit-card readers for non-Tesla users, and improved ergonomics.

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Credit: Tesla Charging | X

Tesla has launched its first “true” V4 Supercharger on the East Coast, and while that may be sort of confusing, here’s what we mean by that.

Tesla has opened its first true V4 Supercharging station on the East Coast in Kissimmee, Florida, just south of Orlando.

The eight-stall site, powered by an advanced 1.2 MW V4 power cabinet, is capable of delivering up to 500 kW, making it one of only four fully operational 500 kW-capable V4 stations in the United States.

Pricing is dynamic and competitive, as Tesla owners pay $0.40 per kWh during peak hours (8 a.m. to midnight), dropping to an attractive $0.20/kWh off-peak (midnight to 8 a.m.).

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Non-Tesla EVs, which can now plug directly into the NACS ports thanks to the open standard, are charged a premium—$0.56/kWh peak and $0.28/kWh off-peak—reflecting Tesla’s strategy to monetize network access while rewarding its own customers.

What’s Makes This a “True” V4 Supercharger

What truly distinguishes this installation from the hundreds of “V4” stalls already scattered across the network? Most existing V4 dispensers, rolled out since 2023, feature welcome upgrades like longer cables, built-in touchscreen displays, integrated credit-card readers for non-Tesla users, and improved ergonomics.

Tesla confirms significant detail regarding V4 Supercharger

However, nearly all of these have been paired with legacy V3 power cabinets. These hybrid setups, sometimes informally called V3.5, deliver charging curves virtually identical to standard V3 stations, typically topping out at 250-325 kW depending on the vehicle and site conditions.

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In contrast, Kissimmee’s true V4 architecture incorporates next-generation 1.2 MW power cabinets. These support battery voltages up to 1,000 V (double the 500 V of V3 systems) and can push up to 500 kW per stall.

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One compact cabinet efficiently powers all eight stalls, slashing the physical footprint and reportedly keeping deployment costs under $40,000 per stall, far cheaper than earlier designs.

Right now, the primary beneficiary is the Cybertruck, which can achieve dramatically faster charging at low states of charge.

Everyday models like the Model 3 and Model Y see little immediate difference in peak speeds, but the hardware lays the groundwork for future vehicles with higher-voltage batteries.

Tesla launches faster Cybertruck charging at all V4 Superchargers

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This milestone signals Tesla’s accelerating push toward a high-power, future-proof Supercharger network.

As true V4 sites multiply, charging times will shrink, grid efficiency will improve, and the entire EV ecosystem, Tesla and non-Tesla alike, will benefit from the infrastructure lead Tesla continues to expand. For drivers in central Florida, the Kissimmee station is more than just another charging stop; it’s a glimpse of the faster, smarter charging era that’s finally arriving.

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Tesla reveals various improvements to the Semi in new piece with Jay Leno

Tesla Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen and Semi Program Director Dan Priestley joined Leno in a 47-minute segment revealing all of the various things it did to make the Semi even better as it heads toward volume production this year.

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Credit: Jay Leno's Garage | YouTube

Tesla has revealed the various improvements it has made to the Semi with its redesign, which was unveiled late last year, on a new episode of Jay Leno’s Garage.

Tesla Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen and Semi Program Director Dan Priestley joined Leno in a 47-minute segment revealing all of the various things it did to make the Semi even better as it heads toward volume production this year.

Last year, Tesla revealed it had updated the Semi design to fit the bill of its aesthetic, which, on its other vehicles, includes things like lightbars and a sleeker and more aerodynamic design. The changes were not all to appease the eye, but the drivers who will use the Semi on a daily basis to haul goods regionally as the program gets off the ground running.

Weight Reduction

Priestley revealed almost immediately that Tesla was able to cut out about 1,000 pounds of weight from the Semi compared to the previous version.

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This does several things, all of which are positive to the mission of a Class 8 truck, which is to haul goods and obtain more efficient travel to cut down on logistics costs.

Initially, this can increase payload capacity, which is often the biggest value driver for fleets that frequently hit gross vehicle weight limits. Tesla’s early Pilot Program members, like PepsiCo. and Frito-Lay, are large-scale companies. They will benefit from a decreased overall weight.

Lighter vehicles also require less energy to accelerate, climb hills, and maintain highway speeds. This new design has that advantage, and as Leno said in his first drive with the Semi as he hauled another unit behind, “I don’t feel like I’m pulling anything.”

Drag Coefficient

Franz said one of the goals of the Semi was to get the drag coefficient down below that of a Bugatti Veyron. This would increase efficiency tremendously, a major need with a large truck like a Semi.

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Drag coefficient is extremely valuable when it comes to electric vehicles, because the displacement of air is incredibly important for range ratings.

Franz said aerodynamic efficiency has been improved by 7 percent compared to the last model. He says the coefficient is around 0.4.

New Features and Improvements

Priestley shed some additional light on the Semi and some of the improvements the company has made under the hood.

These include:

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  • Fully Electric Steering Assist
  • Cybertruck actuators are being used for more strength
  • Tesla included a 48-volt architecture
  • Semi will utilize 4680 battery cells, which are designed to last 1 million miles

These changes come after Tesla rolled out the Semi to various companies for its Pilot Program, which yielded tremendous results. Due to the years it has been working with those companies, it knew what things it had to change and what it had to improve upon before selling the Semi openly.

Fleet Data

The fleet data Tesla has gathered from the Pilot Program has been one of the most widely discussed parts of the Semi program.

Franz and Priestley said that there are currently a few hundred Semi units in the real world, and Tesla has gathered 13.5 million miles. One of those units has traveled over 440,000 miles in the years it has been on the road.

Tesla Semi’s latest adoptee will likely encourage more of the same

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Pilot Program members have reported an uptime of 95 percent, and Tesla’s maintenance and Service teams have kept things running:

“80% of breakdowns if you have one, are returned back to the customer in less than 24 hours, and half are back in less than 1 hour.”

Demand

Priestley says demand for the Semi has never been higher, and due to the recent political climate and the impact things have had on gas prices, Tesla has never received more inquiries for the Semi than it has recently.

Many companies will be surprised to hear that the Semi Pilot Program has been an overwhelming success. As Tesla begins to build out the infrastructure for the vehicle, it will only benefit the all-electric Class 8 trucks that keep things moving.

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CEO Elon Musk said Tesla plans to start high-volume production this year. The company also plans to start deliveries this year.

 

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