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SpaceX Falcon 9 “fleet leader” returns to port after record reuse

Looking surprisingly indifferent to the experience, Falcon 9 booster B1049 successfully completed its seventh orbital-class mission when it returned to Port Canaveral on November 28th. (Richard Angle)

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SpaceX is well and truly 70% of the way to a longstanding rocket reusability target after successfully launching and landing the same Falcon 9 booster on seven orbital-class missions.

Known as Falcon 9 B1049, the record-breaking rocket booster and new “fleet leader” safely returned to Port Canaveral aboard drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) on Saturday, November 28th. Aside from a minor hiccup and 24-hour delay from a vague need for “additional mission assurance,” Falcon 9’s seventh-flight debut was as flawless as ever, simultaneously marking the rocket’s 100th launch overall and 99th success after a decade of operation.

Crystallized in May 2018 and floated many times before by CEO Elon Musk in years prior, SpaceX’s primary goal for Falcon 9 reusability has been ten flights per booster with near-zero refurbishment between launches for several years. As such, Falcon 9 B1049’s latest success means that SpaceX is just three flights away from crossing that partly symbolic but still spectacular milestone.

Falcon 9 booster B1049 after flights six and seven, August and November 2020. (Richard Angle)

For as long as SpaceX and Musk have been transparent about their desire to implement reusability into orbital-class rockets, entrenched competitors like Arianespace and United Launch Alliance (ULA) have almost continuously responded with vague internal studies that conclude that changing their ways is counterproductive. Often, somewhat arbitrary figures arise, with ULA executives frequently falling back on the excuse that SpaceX-style reusability only makes financial sense if a booster fleet averages at least ten flights each.

Arianespace executives have echoed similar sentiments over the years and more recently implied that it would only ever make sense to invest in SpaceX-style reusability if the conglomerate could guarantee at least 30 launch contracts annually.

SpaceX process Falcon 9 B1046 after a record third launch and landing in December 2018. (Pauline Acalin)

Instead of complaining and splitting theoretical hairs for the better part of a decade, SpaceX simply started working. After many tries, the first successful Falcon 9 booster landing came in December 2015. ~15 months later, SpaceX reused an orbital-class rocket booster on a commercial mission for the first time ever. Another 14 months after that, Falcon 9 Block 5 debuted with a bevy of upgrades focused on reusability and reliability, and that same Falcon 9 booster became the first to launch on three orbital-class missions just seven months later.

Falcon 9 B1049 debuted in September 2018. 26 months later, the rocket has completed its seventh successful launch and landing, averaging one orbital satellite launch every ~110 days – an impressive feat for the fourth Block 5 booster ever built. Newer boosters like Falcon 9 B1058 are already improving on the records of their predecessors, managing an average of one launch every 60-80 days.

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Falcon 9 B1049’s business end and landing legs are pictured here after flight #6 (Aug 2020) and flight #7 (Nov 2020). (Richard Angle)

Even if ten flights were to inexplicably become a permanent design limit for all Falcon operations, SpaceX’s current fleet of eight flight-proven Falcon 9 boosters would still be capable of singlehandedly supporting at least 54 more launches, with another 16 on top of that if two dormant Falcon Heavy side boosters are converted for single-core use. SpaceX is unlikely to stop producing Falcon boosters for at least another year or two, adding at least 6-10 more first stages to the fleet to support dozens of crucial Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches over the next 5-10 years.

In simpler terms, it’s almost time for SpaceX’s competitors to move their goalposts again. If B1049 can mirror its 2020 average of one launch every ~80 days, the Falcon 9 booster could be ready for its tenth flight as early as Q3 2021 (with B1051 not far behind it).

(Richard Angle)

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla expands its branded ‘For Business’ Superchargers

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Credit: Francis Energy

Tesla has expanded its branded ‘For Business’ Supercharger program that it launched last year, as yet another company is using the platform to attract EV owners to its business and utilize a unique advertising opportunity.

Francis Energy of Oklahoma is launching four Superchargers in Norman, where the University of Oklahoma is located. The Superchargers, which are fitted with branding for Francis Energy, will officially open tomorrow.

It will not be the final Supercharger location that Francis Energy plans to open, the company confirmed to EVWire.

Back in early September, Tesla launched the new “Supercharger for Business” program in an effort to give businesses the ability to offer EV charging at custom rates. It would give their businesses visibility and would also cater to employees or customers.

“Purchase and install Superchargers at your business,” Tesla wrote on a page on its website for the new program. “Superchargers are compatible with all electric vehicles, bringing EV drivers to your business by offering convenient, reliable charging.”

The first site opened in Land O’ Lakes, Florida, which is Northeast of Tampa, as a company called Suncoast launched the Superchargers for local EV owners.

Tesla launches its new branded Supercharger for Business with first active station

The program also does a great job at expanding infrastructure for EV owners, which is something that needs to be done to encourage more people to purchase Teslas and other electric cars.

Francis Energy operates at least 14 EV charging locations in Oklahoma, spanning from Durant to Oklahoma City and nearly everywhere in between. Filings from the company, listed by Supercharge.info, show the company’s plans to convert some of them to Tesla Superchargers, potentially utilizing the new Supercharger for Business program to advertise.

Moving forward, more companies will likely utilize Tesla’s Supercharger for Business program as it presents major advantages in a variety of ways, especially with advertising and creating a place for EV drivers to gain range in their cars.

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Tesla Cybercab ‘breakdown’ image likely is not what it seems

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Credit: TslaChan | X

Tesla Cybercab is perhaps the most highly-anticipated project that the company plans to roll out this year, and as it is undergoing its testing phase in pre-production currently, there are some things to work through with it.

Over the weekend, an image of the Cybercab being loaded onto a tow truck started circulating on the internet, and people began to speculate as to what the issue could be.

The Cybercab can clearly be seen with a Police Officer and perhaps the tow truck driver by its side, being loaded onto, or even potentially unloaded from, the truck.

However, it seems unlikely it was being offloaded, as its operation would get it to this point for testing to begin with.

It appears, at first glance, that it needs assistance getting back to wherever it came from; likely Gigafactory Texas or potentially a Bay Area facility.

The Cybercab was also spotted in Buffalo, New York, last week, potentially undergoing cold-weather testing, but it doesn’t appear that’s where this incident took place.

It is important to remember that the Cybercab is currently undergoing some rigorous testing scenarios, which include range tests and routine public road operation. These things help Tesla assess any potential issue the vehicle could run into after it starts routine production and heads to customers, or for the Robotaxi platform operation.

This is not a one-off issue, either. Tesla had some instances with the Semi where it was seen broken down on the side of a highway three years ago. The all-electric Semi has gone on to be successful in its early pilot program, as companies like Frito-Lay and PepsiCo. have had very positive remarks.

Tesla reveals its first Semi customer after launch

The Cybercab’s future is bright, and it is important to note that no vehicle model has ever gone its full life without a breakdown. It happens, it’s a car.

Nevertheless, it is important to note that there has been no official word on what happened with this particular Cybercab unit, but it is crucial to remember that this is the pre-production testing phase, and these things are more constructive than anything.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla analyst teases self-driving dominance in new note: ‘It’s not even close’

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”

Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.

His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’

Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.

He writes:

“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”

Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.

This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.

One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.

Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief

And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:

“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”

Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.

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