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SpaceX nails first Falcon 9 booster launch debut in months [photos]
On December 5th, SpaceX pulled off a flawless Falcon 9 booster debut in support of the Cargo Dragon spacecraft’s CRS-19 space station resupply mission, marking the first launch of a new booster in months.
More specifically, the last time SpaceX launched a new Falcon 9 booster was on June 25th, 2019 during STP-2, Falcon Heavy Block 5’s second mission in two months. The mission featured two flight-proven side boosters – both reused from the Block 5 rocket’s April 11th launch debut – but also relied on a new center core (B1057). B1057 unfortunately failed moments before a planned touchdown on drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) but still technically qualifies as the last new booster launched by SpaceX prior to CRS-19.
A few days shy of six months later, CRS-19’s brand new Falcon 9 booster (and an expendable upper stage) rolled out to SpaceX’s LC-40 launch pad, confirming suspicions that the mission would use a new booster instead of twice-flown B1056.
After the booster successfully launched CRS-17 and CRS-18 in May and July 2019, both SpaceX and NASA indicated that B1056 was the most likely candidate to launch CRS-19. Plans clearly changed, although SpaceX indicated in a prelaunch conference that the booster manifest swap was purely a scheduling move and didn’t indicate any technical issues or dissatisfaction from NASA.
In the history of SpaceX booster reuse, NASA has thus far only been comfortable flying on flight-proven boosters that had previously flown NASA missions only, meaning that it will likely be at least 12-18 months before the space agency has another twice-flown Falcon 9 booster ready for a NASA mission. Regardless, the space agency has been undeniably willing to support the technology far sooner than most would have expected, given its history of extreme conservatism over the two or so decades.
Regardless, after a brief wind-related 24-hour delay, Falcon 9 B1059 lifted off for the first time on December 5th, performing perfectly and ultimately landing on drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) to leave the upper stage with enough fuel to perform experiments after deploying Cargo Dragon. The mission’s drone ship landing – unusual for Cargo Dragon launches – raised suspicions in the spaceflight community and SpaceX ultimately confirmed the above information, indicating that CRS-19’s upper stage would perform orbital coast tests (likely for the USAF).
As it turns out Falcon 9 B1059’s flawless landing aboard OCISLY also made it the 20th booster SpaceX has successfully recovered. All told, SpaceX has flown a total of 46 separate missions with flight-proven Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy boosters, all of which have occurred since the technology’s March 2017 debut.
After reaching orbit for the third time ever, Cargo Dragon capsule C106 and a fresh trunk began the journey to the International Space Station (ISS) with around 2600 kg (5800 lb) of science experiments, consumables, and other cargo aboard. The spacecraft successful rendezvoused with the ISS on December 8th and was captured and berthed by the station’s massive robotic arm (Canadarm2) shortly thereafter. All told, SpaceX has now delivered roughly 41 metric tons (90,000 lb) of cargo for NASA over its 19 successful missions to the ISS.
Meanwhile, with its first launch and landing – and a relatively gentle one, at that – under its belt, Falcon 9 B1059 should theoretically be a prime candidate for rapid turnaround, although there’s a good chance that SpaceX will hold the booster to support CRS-20, Cargo Dragon 1’s last planned launch. That mission is expected no earlier than March 2020.
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Elon Musk
SpaceX’s next trillion dollar bet has nothing to do with rockets, Musk tells staff
Elon Musk told SpaceX staff AI revenue will soon dwarf rockets and Starlink combined entirely.
Elon Musk told SpaceX employees this week that artificial intelligence, not rockets, will soon carry the company’s revenue. In a roughly 29 minute internal address posted on SpaceX’s X account on Tuesday, Musk said AI revenue will pass every other line of business at SpaceX “probably in September” and pull further ahead by the fourth quarter.
The numbers he gave are specific. SpaceX currently runs 1.4 gigawatts of AI compute capacity. Musk wants that at 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027, a jump he tied directly to revenue: “if we bring 10GW of AI online by the end of next year, it will be $300 billion to $500 billion a year in revenue.” He called those “big numbers,” which undersells a projection larger than what most countries produce in a year.
We made rockets reusable and are rebuilding the internet in space. The next challenge: making life multiplanetary and understanding the true nature of the universe
Watch @ElonMusk deliver a company update to @SpaceX employees pic.twitter.com/5c8rxoCQfu
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) August 11, 2026
Musk went further on where AI fits into SpaceX’s future. “Probably in four or five years, AI will be 99% of the value of SpaceX,” he told staff, adding that digital intelligence would eventually run “a trillion times” ahead of biological intelligence as computing scales. He tied that growth to the company’s founding mission, telling employees “we must win on AI, because the future is overwhelmingly AI and robots,” with the payoff meant to help fund Starship and a Mars program that increasingly runs through Terafab, the joint Tesla, SpaceX and xAI chip plant.
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None of this is entirely new territory. SpaceX told investors much the same story during its first earnings call as a public company on August 4, where Musk moved the company’s $1 trillion revenue target up a year to 2030 and said Starlink could someday carry a majority of the world’s internet. What the all hands video adds is a hard deadline and a specific power figure Musk had not given publicly before, along with a franker pitch to his own workforce that AI, not launch cadence, is now the thing SpaceX is betting its future on.
The AI revenue itself is not coming from SpaceX training its own models. It is largely Starlink acting as the network layer for xAI’s workloads, plus SpaceX renting out compute capacity directly, the same approach behind the roughly $16 billion the company spent on AI infrastructure in a single quarter.
Musk closed the video with a pitch aimed at recruiting and retention rather than investors, telling employees that anyone who helps SpaceX win the AI race will eventually get the chance to go to the moon or Mars themselves. Whether SpaceX can turn 1.4 gigawatts into 10 in seventeen months is the more immediate question, and one that will show up in quarterly numbers well before anyone leaves Earth.
In a new note to investors on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said that Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors regarding its Robotaxi rollout, Full Self-Driving software, and Optimus.
Percoco said in the note that, for the most part, investors are still very positive about the direction the company is headed. However, there are some things the firm would like to see, and they have to do with financials.
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Tesla bulls are more than convinced that the company’s Full Self-Driving software is proof it can develop physical AI. Financially, however, there are still some questions, especially on elevated spending, which CEO Elon Musk said would occur as the company works to roll out Robotaxi faster and continue developing its Optimus robot.
The latter two are where Tesla will have to prove progress to investors, as Percoco writes that both projects “will require clearer evidence that Robotaxi is scaling and more tangible Optimus proof points to support the ROI on elevated capex.”
Percoco said the second quarter earnings call did not change his long-term thesis of where Tesla is positioned in the AI race, which is out in front. However, there are concerns that weaker gross margins and higher R&D spend will stress financials, and that has “sharpened our (and investors’) focus on measurable progress across Robotaxi and Optimus.”
Additionally, Robotaxi still needs to be proven with more operation in existing cities while maintaining safety but improving how many rides it gives in any given time, he said. For Optimus, Percoco wrote that he is “still looking for evidence beyond commentary around SOP.”
Morgan Stanley put Percoco in charge of covering Tesla after long-time analyst Adam Jonas transitioned to the automotive side.
Currently, Morgan Stanley has a $415 price target on Tesla and a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock. It is trading at around $330 at the time of publication, which was 2:30 P.M. on the East Coast.
SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.
The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.
Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.
There are plenty of ways the company can do this:
Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts
SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.
High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity
The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.
Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.
Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.
High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online
GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.
Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications
Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.
These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.
Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages
SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.
Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.
SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.
SpaceX’s next trillion dollar bet has nothing to do with rockets, Musk tells staff
Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors: Morgan Stanley
