NASA has certified SpaceX’s Falcon 9 (likely F9 v1.2) to launch the space agency’s most valuable and critical scientific spacecraft, opening up the floor for SpaceX to routinely compete for missions comparable to Hubble Space Telescope, the Curiosity Mars rover (Mars Science Laboratory), Cassini (a Saturn orbiter), and James Webb Space Telescope, among many others.
As SpaceX nears the Falcon family’s 35th consecutive launch success, this certification serves as a pragmatic endorsement of the years of work the company has put into optimizing Falcon 9 for performance and reliability.
SpaceX announces that NASA’s Launch Services Program has given Category 3 certification to the Falcon 9, making it eligible for “NASA’s highest cost and most complex scientific missions,” according to its statement.
— Jeff Foust (@jeff_foust) November 8, 2018
Although Falcon 9 is capable of extremely impressive performance beyond Earth orbit, that performance only becomes truly competitive with ULA’s Atlas V rocket when Falcon 9 is launched as a fully expendable vehicle. Regardless, both Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy are all but guaranteed to cost far less than a comparably capable Atlas V, even assuming no recovery attempt is made. Given the rarity of such valuable NASA launches, typically no more than two annually at best, SpaceX would undoubtedly be more than happy to expend as much hardware as necessary to give NASA a competitive offer for the performance it needs.
“LSP Category 3 certification is a major achievement for the Falcon 9 team and represents another key milestone in our close partnership with NASA. We are honored to have the opportunity to provide cost-effective and reliable launch services to the country’s most critical scientific payloads.” – Gwynne Shotwell, COO and President of SpaceX
Still, the fact remains that most – if not all – of NASA’s high-value “Class A or B” missions end up being extremely heavy spacecraft, either as a result of large and expensive scientific instruments, a need for lots of extra onboard propellant, or some combination of the two. Saturnian orbiter Cassini, launched in 1997, weighed a full ~5700 kg (~12,600 lbs) and had to make its way from Earth to Saturn, a journey of many hundreds of millions of miles. Hubble, placed in a medium Earth orbit, weighed 11,100 kg (24,500 lbs) at liftoff. The Curiosity rover – including cruise stage, reentry hardware, and rocket crane – weighed ~3900 kg (~8600 lbs) at launch.
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- NASA LSP’s launch vehicle classification.
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- The corresponding spacecraft classifications, ranging from low-value to high-value.
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- Falcon Heavy’s first static fire, Feb. 2018. (SpaceX)
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- SpaceX and NASA’s most recent science spacecraft launch, TESS. (SpaceX)
Paving the way for Falcon Heavy
Falcon 9 routinely launches payloads as heavy as that but only to comparatively low-energy orbits around Earth – to launch the same massive payloads beyond Earth orbit requires far more energy and thus rocket performance. Perhaps the most encouraging part of this NASA certification is the demonstration that NASA’s trust in SpaceX rockets has grown to the point that Falcon Heavy certification is likely just a matter of time. In order to qualify for “LSP Category 3” certification, any given rocket must launch anywhere from 3-6 times depending on what the certification board feels is necessary.
SpaceX has at least two Falcon Heavy launches scheduled for 2019. Combined with the rocket’s nearly flawless February 2018 launch debut, those two launches – commsat Arabsat 6A and the Air Force’s STP-2 mission – could satisfy NASA LSP and allow the agency to certify Falcon Heavy for flagship science missions. If/when that occurs, SpaceX will be able to offer NASA all the performance they will conceivably need for the foreseeable future, ensuring that NASA will be able to compete most future launch contracts. At worst, a ULA victory would force the company to significantly lower their prices.
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Tesla bull sees a new path to 600,000 deliveries per quarter
“We believe the launch of a lower cost model represents the first step to getting back to a ~500k quarterly delivery run-rate, which will be important to stimulate demand for its fleet with the EV tax credit expiring at the end of September.”
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) bull Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities published a new note to investors on Thursday evening, which seemed to open up the possibility of the automaker returning to a growth rate in terms of deliveries.
After nearly two years of leveling off with deliveries, which was expected, Tesla is now slated to potentially return to growth, Ives says, as it has introduced new, more affordable models. It launched its Standard offerings for the Model 3 and Model Y this week, a strategy to bring cheaper cars to customers amid the loss of the $7,500 tax credit.
🚨 Wedbush’s Dan Ives put up a new Tesla $TSLA note:
“The AI valuation will start to get unlocked in the Tesla story and we believe the march to an AI driven valuation for TSLA over the next 6-9 months has now begun in our view with FSD and autonomous penetration of Tesla’s…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 10, 2025
In his note to investors, Ives said:
“We believe the launch of a lower cost model represents the first step to getting back to a ~500k quarterly delivery run-rate, which will be important to stimulate demand for its fleet with the EV tax credit expiring at the end of September.”
Although these cars come in only slightly under $40,000, there is some belief that they will do two things: attract car buyers looking for an under-$40k EV with Tesla’s technology and infrastructure, or push those on the fence to the now-Premium models, which are simply the Long Range Rear-Wheel-Drive and Long Range All-Wheel-Drive.
Ives said in the note that Tesla’s plans for a $25,000 car are “on hold,” but it seems as if that vehicle will be the Cybercab, which the company unveiled a year ago today.
That project seems to be moving forward as well, based on what we saw at both Fremont and Gigafactory Texas yesterday. At Fremont, the Cybercab was spotted on the Test Track, while crash-tested units were spotted at the factory in Austin.
After the Standard models were rolled out and the Cybercab or another $25,000 unit arrives, Ives believes Tesla could actually get closer to 600,000 deliveries per quarter, he said on CNBC this morning:
BREAKING: DAN IVES SAYS — $TSLA WILL DELIVER ABOVE 600K CARS PER QUARTER 👀
He says Tesla stock is going to $600+ ! pic.twitter.com/fWLfMnH1XH
— TheSonOfWalkley (@TheSonOfWalkley) October 10, 2025
Moving forward, Tesla has much more going for it than its potential growth in quarterly deliveries. Ives recognizes that a majority of what Tesla’s value will come from in the future: AI and autonomy.
Ives said:
“The AI valuation will start to get unlocked in the Tesla story and we believe the march to an AI driven valuation for TSLA over the next 6-9 months has now begun in our view with FSD and autonomous penetration of Tesla’s installed base and the acceleration of Cybercab in the US representing the golden goose for Musk & Co. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap early 2026 in a bull case scenario and $3 trillion by the end of 2026 as full scale volume production begins of the autonomous and robotics roadmap.”
Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and ‘Outperform’ rating on Tesla stock.
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The Tesla Model Y Standard is actually a great deal in Europe
A €10,000 delta could very well prove to be a meaningful difference for numerous consumers.
It’s no secret that the Model Y Standard proved polarizing to numerous Tesla watchers in the United States. At just a few thousand dollars less than the Model Y Premium, the entry-level variant seemed like a subpar deal considering all the features that are missing from the vehicle.
In Europe, however, the story might be different, and the Model Y Standard might actually end up being a pretty good deal for numerous car shoppers.
Model Y Standard
Perhaps the biggest complaint against the Model Y Standard in the United States was its price. Listed at $39,990, it was only $5,000 less than the Model Y Premium Rear Wheel Drive (RWD), which starts at $44,990 before options. Considering the list of features and functions that are absent in the Model Y Standard, a good number of Tesla community members noted that the vehicle should have been priced lower, perhaps around $34,990, for it to truly be a good deal.
Otherwise, the entry-level Model Y could end up following in the footsteps of the Cybertruck Rear Wheel Drive, which was priced just below $70,000, but was missing a long list of features that were included on the Cybertruck AWD. The Cybertruck RWD has since been discontinued, likely because of low orders.
Different story in Europe
While the Model Y Standard may not make much sense in the United States, its pricing actually makes it a very good deal in Europe. A look at the order page for the Model Y in The Netherlands, for example, shows that the Model Y Standard is priced at €39,990 before options, €10,000 less than the Model Y Premium Rear Wheel Drive, which is priced at €50,990 before options.
As noted by Tesla watcher @KamermanMenno on social media platform X, a €10,000 delta is a meaningful difference for numerous consumers. Given the significant price difference, the Model Y Standard could become the ideal entry-level vehicle for drivers looking to join the Tesla ecosystem at the lowest possible cost. The fact that the Model Y Standard is a crossover SUV bodes well for the vehicle, given the segment’s popularity as well.
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Tesla Model Y L helps boost China wholesale numbers to 90,812 units in September
The month’s results represent the company’s best wholesale figures this year so far.
Tesla China’s wholesale numbers bounced back in September after two straight months of decline, hinting at renewed momentum for the EV maker in one of the world’s most competitive electric car markets.
As per data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), Tesla China sold 90,812 vehicles wholesale last month, a 2.82% year-on-year increase from the 88,321 units that were sold wholesale in September 2024. The month’s results represent the company’s best wholesale figures this year so far.
Tesla China’s September comeback
Tesla China’s wholesale results in September were boosted by the Model Y L, as noted in a CNEV Post report. The new six-seat Model Y L, launched in August and delivered starting in early September, enabled Tesla China to enter the market for large SUVs with six seats, a segment previously inaccessible by the standard, five-seat Model Y.
Tesla’s Gigafactory Shanghai continues to be the keystone of the company’s Asia-Pacific operations, producing both the Model 3 and Model Y for local and overseas markets. September’s total marked a 9.16% increase from August’s 83,192 units, effectively allowing Tesla China to return to growth after two months of year-over-year declines.
Tesla China’s quarterly results
From January to September, Tesla China sold 606,364 vehicles wholesale, down 10.27% compared to the same period last year. The decline reflected seven months of year-on-year drops in the first nine months of 2024. Part of this decline was due to Tesla’s changeover to the new Model Y earlier this year, which resulted in the company effectively pulling out its best-selling model for a few months while its factories were being updated.
In the third quarter, Tesla China sold 241,890 vehicles, accounting for 48.66% of the electric car maker’s global total of 497,099 deliveries. That figure was down 2.91% year-on-year but up 26.17% from the previous quarter. With Model Y L deliveries likely hitting their stride this Q4 2025, Tesla China’s wholesale figures this quarter would likely be very interesting.
Tesla bull sees a new path to 600,000 deliveries per quarter
The Tesla Model Y Standard is actually a great deal in Europe
Tesla Model Y L helps boost China wholesale numbers to 90,812 units in September
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