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SpaceX fires up Falcon 9 for first flight-proven ‘national security’ launch
On June 12th, SpaceX successfully fired up a once-flown Falcon 9 booster in the lead-up to the company’s fourth launch of an upgraded GPS III navigation satellite for the US military.
Dating back several years, SpaceX has won a vast majority of GPS III launches thanks to Falcon 9’s exceptional combination of reliability and affordability, securing all five competitively-awarded contracts. The company aced its first GPS III launch in December 2019, expending a brand new Falcon 9 booster (B1054) due to customer – not performance – requirements necessary to ensure extreme margins in the event of some kind of anomaly or underperformance during launch.
In June 2020, SpaceX once again launched a GPS III satellite for the US military, though this time the company was allowed to attempt to land the Falcon 9 booster supporting the mission – which it successfully recovered without issue. Less than five months after GPS III SV03’s successful launch, SpaceX turned around and launched GPS III SV04 – again with an all-new Falcon 9 rocket – and recovered the booster at sea. A few months prior, however, the US Space and Missile Systems Center (SMC) announced a contract modification that would allow SpaceX to begin reusing Falcon 9 boosters on National Security Space Launch (NSSL) missions – beginning with the company’s fourth GPS III launch.
Seven months later, SMC revealed that it has officially cleared SpaceX to begin launching GPS III (and other official NSSL) satellites on flight-proven Falcon rockets. Notably, that might include a Falcon Heavy launch – USSF-52 – planned as early as January 2022 that could reuse two new side boosters scheduled to debut on USSF-44 as early as October 2021.
In the meantime, though, GPS III SV05 – scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) 12:09 pm EDT (16:09 UTC), Thursday, June 17th – is just two days away from becoming the first NSSL (formerly EELV) satellite to launch on a flight-proven commercial rocket. GPS III SV05 will reuse the same Falcon 9 booster (B1062) that successfully launched GPS III SV04 seven months prior.
While an extremely slow turnaround relative to any other modern Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy booster, those seven months mainly gave the US military margin to fully certify flight-proven Falcons and satellite manufacturer Lockheed Martin time to deal with shortage and coronavirus-related delays. On June 12th, after rolling out to SpaceX’s Cape Canaveral LC-40 launch pad, GPS III SV05’s Falcon 9 rocket completed a wet dress rehearsal that culminated in a successful several-second static fire of booster B1062.
Now cleared for flight, Falcon 9 will be brought horizontal and roll back to LC-40’s integration hangar, where SpaceX will install the encapsulated GPS III SV05 satellite and payload fairing on top of the rocket’s expendable second stage.
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The integrated payload assembly rolled from a nearby payload processing facility to LC-40 on June 13th, giving SpaceX four days to complete integration, roll Falcon 9 back out to the launch pad, and prepare the rocket for flight. Now alone on the East Coast for the first time in 12 months, drone ship Just Read The Instructions (JRTI) departed Port Canaveral for the GPS III SV05 booster recovery zone on the same day, followed by the latest in a line of temporary fairing recovery ships on June 14th to scoop the mission’s nosecone halves out of the Atlantic.
L-3 weather forecasts predict a 40% chance of delay on June 17th, improving to 30% on June 18th. Stay tuned for webcast details as SpaceX nears the first of many flight-proven launches for the US military.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s next trillion dollar bet has nothing to do with rockets, Musk tells staff
Elon Musk told SpaceX staff AI revenue will soon dwarf rockets and Starlink combined entirely.
Elon Musk told SpaceX employees this week that artificial intelligence, not rockets, will soon carry the company’s revenue. In a roughly 29 minute internal address posted on SpaceX’s X account on Tuesday, Musk said AI revenue will pass every other line of business at SpaceX “probably in September” and pull further ahead by the fourth quarter.
The numbers he gave are specific. SpaceX currently runs 1.4 gigawatts of AI compute capacity. Musk wants that at 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027, a jump he tied directly to revenue: “if we bring 10GW of AI online by the end of next year, it will be $300 billion to $500 billion a year in revenue.” He called those “big numbers,” which undersells a projection larger than what most countries produce in a year.
We made rockets reusable and are rebuilding the internet in space. The next challenge: making life multiplanetary and understanding the true nature of the universe
Watch @ElonMusk deliver a company update to @SpaceX employees pic.twitter.com/5c8rxoCQfu
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) August 11, 2026
Musk went further on where AI fits into SpaceX’s future. “Probably in four or five years, AI will be 99% of the value of SpaceX,” he told staff, adding that digital intelligence would eventually run “a trillion times” ahead of biological intelligence as computing scales. He tied that growth to the company’s founding mission, telling employees “we must win on AI, because the future is overwhelmingly AI and robots,” with the payoff meant to help fund Starship and a Mars program that increasingly runs through Terafab, the joint Tesla, SpaceX and xAI chip plant.
Elon Musk launches TERAFAB: The $25B Tesla-SpaceXAI chip factory that will rewire the AI industry
None of this is entirely new territory. SpaceX told investors much the same story during its first earnings call as a public company on August 4, where Musk moved the company’s $1 trillion revenue target up a year to 2030 and said Starlink could someday carry a majority of the world’s internet. What the all hands video adds is a hard deadline and a specific power figure Musk had not given publicly before, along with a franker pitch to his own workforce that AI, not launch cadence, is now the thing SpaceX is betting its future on.
The AI revenue itself is not coming from SpaceX training its own models. It is largely Starlink acting as the network layer for xAI’s workloads, plus SpaceX renting out compute capacity directly, the same approach behind the roughly $16 billion the company spent on AI infrastructure in a single quarter.
Musk closed the video with a pitch aimed at recruiting and retention rather than investors, telling employees that anyone who helps SpaceX win the AI race will eventually get the chance to go to the moon or Mars themselves. Whether SpaceX can turn 1.4 gigawatts into 10 in seventeen months is the more immediate question, and one that will show up in quarterly numbers well before anyone leaves Earth.
In a new note to investors on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said that Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors regarding its Robotaxi rollout, Full Self-Driving software, and Optimus.
Percoco said in the note that, for the most part, investors are still very positive about the direction the company is headed. However, there are some things the firm would like to see, and they have to do with financials.
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2026 earnings results: miss on EPS, beat on revenue
Tesla bulls are more than convinced that the company’s Full Self-Driving software is proof it can develop physical AI. Financially, however, there are still some questions, especially on elevated spending, which CEO Elon Musk said would occur as the company works to roll out Robotaxi faster and continue developing its Optimus robot.
The latter two are where Tesla will have to prove progress to investors, as Percoco writes that both projects “will require clearer evidence that Robotaxi is scaling and more tangible Optimus proof points to support the ROI on elevated capex.”
Percoco said the second quarter earnings call did not change his long-term thesis of where Tesla is positioned in the AI race, which is out in front. However, there are concerns that weaker gross margins and higher R&D spend will stress financials, and that has “sharpened our (and investors’) focus on measurable progress across Robotaxi and Optimus.”
Additionally, Robotaxi still needs to be proven with more operation in existing cities while maintaining safety but improving how many rides it gives in any given time, he said. For Optimus, Percoco wrote that he is “still looking for evidence beyond commentary around SOP.”
Morgan Stanley put Percoco in charge of covering Tesla after long-time analyst Adam Jonas transitioned to the automotive side.
Currently, Morgan Stanley has a $415 price target on Tesla and a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock. It is trading at around $330 at the time of publication, which was 2:30 P.M. on the East Coast.
SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.
The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.
Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.
There are plenty of ways the company can do this:
Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts
SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.
High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity
The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.
Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.
Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.
High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online
GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.
Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications
Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.
These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.
Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages
SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.
Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.
SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.
SpaceX’s next trillion dollar bet has nothing to do with rockets, Musk tells staff
Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors: Morgan Stanley
