News
SpaceX fires up Falcon 9 for first flight-proven ‘national security’ launch
On June 12th, SpaceX successfully fired up a once-flown Falcon 9 booster in the lead-up to the company’s fourth launch of an upgraded GPS III navigation satellite for the US military.
Dating back several years, SpaceX has won a vast majority of GPS III launches thanks to Falcon 9’s exceptional combination of reliability and affordability, securing all five competitively-awarded contracts. The company aced its first GPS III launch in December 2019, expending a brand new Falcon 9 booster (B1054) due to customer – not performance – requirements necessary to ensure extreme margins in the event of some kind of anomaly or underperformance during launch.
In June 2020, SpaceX once again launched a GPS III satellite for the US military, though this time the company was allowed to attempt to land the Falcon 9 booster supporting the mission – which it successfully recovered without issue. Less than five months after GPS III SV03’s successful launch, SpaceX turned around and launched GPS III SV04 – again with an all-new Falcon 9 rocket – and recovered the booster at sea. A few months prior, however, the US Space and Missile Systems Center (SMC) announced a contract modification that would allow SpaceX to begin reusing Falcon 9 boosters on National Security Space Launch (NSSL) missions – beginning with the company’s fourth GPS III launch.
Seven months later, SMC revealed that it has officially cleared SpaceX to begin launching GPS III (and other official NSSL) satellites on flight-proven Falcon rockets. Notably, that might include a Falcon Heavy launch – USSF-52 – planned as early as January 2022 that could reuse two new side boosters scheduled to debut on USSF-44 as early as October 2021.
In the meantime, though, GPS III SV05 – scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) 12:09 pm EDT (16:09 UTC), Thursday, June 17th – is just two days away from becoming the first NSSL (formerly EELV) satellite to launch on a flight-proven commercial rocket. GPS III SV05 will reuse the same Falcon 9 booster (B1062) that successfully launched GPS III SV04 seven months prior.
While an extremely slow turnaround relative to any other modern Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy booster, those seven months mainly gave the US military margin to fully certify flight-proven Falcons and satellite manufacturer Lockheed Martin time to deal with shortage and coronavirus-related delays. On June 12th, after rolling out to SpaceX’s Cape Canaveral LC-40 launch pad, GPS III SV05’s Falcon 9 rocket completed a wet dress rehearsal that culminated in a successful several-second static fire of booster B1062.
Now cleared for flight, Falcon 9 will be brought horizontal and roll back to LC-40’s integration hangar, where SpaceX will install the encapsulated GPS III SV05 satellite and payload fairing on top of the rocket’s expendable second stage.
The integrated payload assembly rolled from a nearby payload processing facility to LC-40 on June 13th, giving SpaceX four days to complete integration, roll Falcon 9 back out to the launch pad, and prepare the rocket for flight. Now alone on the East Coast for the first time in 12 months, drone ship Just Read The Instructions (JRTI) departed Port Canaveral for the GPS III SV05 booster recovery zone on the same day, followed by the latest in a line of temporary fairing recovery ships on June 14th to scoop the mission’s nosecone halves out of the Atlantic.
L-3 weather forecasts predict a 40% chance of delay on June 17th, improving to 30% on June 18th. Stay tuned for webcast details as SpaceX nears the first of many flight-proven launches for the US military.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
