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SpaceX Falcon 9’s next major US Air Force launch slips into early 2020 ahead of busy Q4

Falcon 9 B1054 prepares the SpaceX's first major USAF launch and Block 5's first expendable mission. The next mission is now NET January 2020. (SpaceX/USAF)

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According to an August 20th update from the US Air Force’s Space and Missile Systems Center (SMC), SpaceX’s next dedicated USAF launch – the third completed GPS III spacecraft – has slipped one month and is now scheduled no earlier than (NET) January 2020.

Known as GPS III Space Vehicle 03 (SV03), SpaceX’s next US military launch will follow just a few months after United Launch Alliance (ULA) is set to launch GPS III SV02, scheduled to lift off at 9am EDT, August 22nd. SpaceX kicked off the lengthy GPS III launch campaign in December 2018, successfully placing the ~3900 kg (8600 lb) communications and geolocation spacecraft into a transfer orbit. The mission also marked SpaceX’s first intentionally expendable Falcon 9 Block 5 launch, a trend that may or may not continue with the company’s next GPS launch.

Known as GPS Block IIIA, SV01-03 are the first three of a batch of 10 spacecraft total, produced by Lockheed Martin for an anticipated cost of roughly $600M apiece. The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) expects [PDF] little to no cost savings per unit for Block IIIA’s follow-up, Block IIIF, in which 22 additional GPS III spacecraft will be built to fully upgrade the military’s GPS constellation. GAO estimates that those 22 satellites – likely to also be built by Lockheed Martin – will cost an incredible $12B, or ~$550M apiece.

On the scale of the US military’s woefully inefficient space procurement apparatus, ~$600M per satellite is sadly a pretty good deal. Two equally modern USAF satellite acquisition programs – the Advanced Extremely High Frequency (AEHF) and Space-Based Infrared System constellations – have both surpassed their initial cost estimates by more than a factor of two. Over the entire program, GAO estimates that six AEHF satellites no less than $3 billion each, while SBIRS is in even worse shape with six new satellites expected to cost $3.2 billion apiece.

Lockheed Martin’s GPS Block IIIA assembly line. (USAF)

Meanwhile, the Raytheon-built ‘OCX’ ground systems needed to take advantage of the ~$19B GPS III satellite upgrades has been just as much of an acquisition boondoggle, nearly doubling in cost over the last few years, bringing its final cost to no less than $6.2B after years of delays. All told, completing the upgraded GPS III constellation can be expected to cost a bare minimum of $25B. This cost doesn’t even include launches, but the cost of launching all the spacecraft is – in a rare instance – going to be a small fraction of the overall acquisition, perhaps $3-4B for all 32 satellites.

Regardless of the nightmarish costs and general inefficiency, Lockheed Martin and the USAF continue to slowly march towards initial GPS III operability. August 22nd’s ULA launch and January 2020’s SpaceX launch will take significant steps towards that capability, and will – with any luck – be followed by an additional two Falcon 9 GPS III launches in 2020. Six of ten IIIA satellites have already had launch contracts awarded, five of six of which were awarded to SpaceX.

Falcon 9 B1054 lifts off on SpaceX’s first major USAF launch in December 2018. (Tom Cross)

End-of-year fireworks

GPS III SV03’s slip from December 2019 to January 2020 comes as plans for an ambitious final quarter have begun to take shape for SpaceX. Oddly, SpaceX is currently going through more than two months of downtime between its most recent launch (AMOS-17, August 6th) and its next mission (Starlink 1, NET late October). This will be the longest SpaceX has gone without launching since a catastrophic Falcon 9 failure grounded the company’s launch operations from September 2016 to January 2017.

By all appearances, customers’ payloads just aren’t ready, while SpaceX’s own Starlink constellation team is hard at work updating the satellite design and preparing for two back-to-back launches as early as October and November, potentially placing 120 high-performance satellites in orbit.

A general overview of Starlink’s bus, payload stacking, and solar arrays. (SpaceX)
60 Starlink satellites were successfully launched in May 2019 in an incredibly ambitious beta test for the SpaceX constellation. 50 satellites have successfully reached their final orbits, two are intentionally being deorbited, and the remaining 8 are still climbing the gravity well. (SpaceX)

Aside from two Starlink launches scheduled in late-October and November, SpaceX has at least six other missions that could potentially launch in Q4 2019.


LaunchDate (No Earlier Than)
Starlink 1October 17th
Starlink 2November 4th
Crew Dragon – In-Flight AbortNovember 11th
ANASIS-II – South KoreaNovember – TBD
JCSat-18/Kacific-1November – TBD
Cargo Dragon CRS-19December 4th
Sirius XM-7 (SXM-7)Q4 2019 – TBD
Crew Dragon – Demo-2December – TBD

A lack of updates from Sirius XM and the fact that Crew Dragon’s Demo-2 launch will rely entirely upon the successful completion of its prior In-Flight Abort (IFA) mean that both will very likely slip into 2020. The remaining six launches, however, have a very decent chance of launching in 2019, assuming everything goes perfectly during satellite, Falcon 9, and launch pad pre-flight preparations.

SpaceX has successfully completed six launches in three months several times before, so six launches in Q4 2019 is entirely achievable, even if a pragmatist would do well to expect additional delays into 2020.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk reiterates shocking xAI detail, and hints at an upcoming monster

He also announced that xAI’s upcoming model, Grok 5, will begin training very soon.

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MINISTÉRIO DAS COMUNICAÇÕES, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Elon Musk has reiterated a rather shocking tidbit about xAI’s impressive scores at the ARC-AGI benchmark.

He also announced that xAI’s upcoming model, Grok 5, will begin training very soon.

xAI results on the ARC-AGI benchmark

In a recent post on social media platform X, Greg Kamradt, President of the ARC Prize Foundation, noted that Grok 4 has been used in two SOTA submissions to the ARC-AGI V1 and V2 benchmarks. The submissions, which were the best that the foundation has encountered to date, were done using xAI’s large language model, Grok 4. 

As per Kamradt, when asked about why the submissions were done using Grok 4, the authors stated that “It was the best model I used in testing.” Musk was evidently proud of this accomplishment, though he also highlighted that these accomplishments were attained with just Grok 4. This suggests that once Grok 5 is in the picture, xAI’s lead in the AI sector could become notable.

Grok 5 incoming

Elon Musk has shared a number of tidbits about Grok 5 as of late. In recent comments on X, the Tesla and SpaceX CEO stated that he believes Grok 5 has the potential to actually reach artificial general intelligence (AGI). This suggests that Grok 5 would be nothing short of a monster, as it could be capable of matching or surpassing human-level intelligence across tasks such as thinking, reasoning, and other domains by a substantial margin.

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Grok 5 may also be coming soon. As per Musk in another post on X, xAI will be starting the training of Grok 5 in a few weeks. Musk definitely seems to be highly optimistic about the capabilities of Grok 5, with the CEO stating late last month that the update would be coming before the end of the year and that it will be “crushingly good.”

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SpaceX is partnering with chipmakers to enable Starlink satellite-to-cell service

President Gwynne Shotwell outlined the effort during a space industry conference in Paris.

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Credit: SpaceX/X

SpaceX is working with microchip manufacturers to integrate satellite-connectivity hardware into smartphones, advancing its plan for direct-to-device services through Starlink. 

The move follows the company’s $17 billion acquisition of wireless spectrum from EchoStar Corp., a deal that positions SpaceX to operate more independently of traditional telecom carriers. 

President Gwynne Shotwell outlined the effort during a space industry conference in Paris this week, as noted in a Bloomberg News report.

Starlink direct-to-device

Starlink currently serves millions of customers in over 100 countries, primarily through ground-based dishes. The company, however, is now expanding into satellite-to-cell service, which should enable unmodified phones to connect directly with orbiting satellites. While SpaceX has a partnership with T-Mobile US, the EchoStar spectrum purchase gives it more control to negotiate with global carriers on its own terms.

“We’re working with chip manufacturers to get the proper chips in phones,” the SpaceX President stated. “We will now be initiating discussions with telcos in a different way now. Now it’s our spectrum, but we want to work with them, almost providing capacity and wholesaling capacity to their customers.”

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The company plans to launch satellites capable of supporting its direct-to-device business within two years, with early mobile phone testing expected by late 2026.

Starship program continues test flights

Shotwell also addressed SpaceX’s Starship program, which recently completed its 10th test flight in August. She said the mission met all objectives, providing a critical morale boost to teams after a challenging development year. 

“My Starship team needed that win,” Shotwell noted. “Development programs always are kind of a 24/7 operation, and I was really pleased for them.”

SpaceX is planning to fly one more iteration of the current Starship prototype, known as V2, before transitioning to the next-generation V3 vehicle. That version, expected to debut late this year or early 2026, is designed to be more capable and support eventual crewed missions to the Moon and Mars. 

“The V3, which we want to fly hopefully late this year, but maybe early next year, is really the vehicle that could take humans to the moon and Mars,” Shotwell stated.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk says xAI has a chance to reach AGI with Grok 5

The comment came after Grok 4 posted strong results on the ARC-AGI benchmark.

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xAI-supercomputer-memphis-environment-pushback
(Credit: xAI)

Elon Musk suggested this week that his artificial intelligence startup xAI has the potential to reach artificial general intelligence (AGI) with the next version of its large language model, Grok 5. 

The comment came after Grok 4 posted strong results on the ARC-AGI benchmark, which tests reasoning and problem-solving ability.

Musk sees Grok 5 as AGI candidate

In a post on X, user @amXFreeze shared the latest results of the ARC-AGI leaderboard, which showed Grok 4 outpacing rival systems such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT in problem-solving and open program synthesis tasks. 

Musk reacted to the performance by stating that “I now think xAI has a chance of reaching AGI with Grok 5. Never thought that before.” 

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to an AI system that is capable of matching or surpassing human-level intelligence across tasks such as thinking, reasoning, and other domains by a notable margin, as noted in a report from Benzinga. AI companies today are actively pursuing AGI.

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xAI’s speed 

While xAI was only established in March 2023, the startup has grown aggressively. Since its founding, it has rapidly risen in the AI segment and its Grok large language model has become a mainstream option for everyday users, especially on social media platform X. The company is still growing aggressively, and it is currently expanding its Colossus supercomputer cluster in Memphis. 

During xAI’s Engineering Open House event in San Francisco in its early days, Elon Musk highlighted that speed would be the company’s primary competitive edge. To highlight this, Musk stated that “No SR-71 Blackbird was ever shot down and it only had one strategy: to accelerate.” So far, xAI is definitely playing this role very well. 

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