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Watch SpaceX’s last launch and landing of 2020 live [webcast]

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Update: Despite no plans for a preflight static fire, SpaceX remains on track to attempt its last launch and landing of 2020 as early as 9 am EST (14:00 UTC), Thursday, December 17th.

After performing a routine preflight wet dress rehearsal (WDR) and booster static fire prior to every launch since September 2016, SpaceX has gradually begun to loosen the requirement for flight-proven rockets in 2020. Instead, if a prior flight or post-flight inspection reveal issues, static fires will serve more as a data-driven diagnostic tool. For flight-proven boosters with a clean bill of health, so to speak, SpaceX appears to be confident enough to skip the procedure on a few internal Starlink launches and the odd customer mission.

B1059 last launched on August 30th, landing back at LZ-1 around eight minutes later. (Richard Angle)

Now, despite NROL-108 begin the NRO’s first direct launch contract with SpaceX and first flight on a flight-proven Falcon 9 rocket of any kind, let alone the four-flight booster assigned to support it, the espionage agency apparently has equal faith in SpaceX. Falcon 9 B1059, a new upper stage and payload fairing, and the unspecified NROL-108 payload(s) went vertical at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Launch Complex 39A on December 16th – far too late for any WDR or static fire testing prior to an early December 17th launch attempt.

The mission will be SpaceX’s 26th and final launch of 2020 and – barring a major surprisethe last orbital US launch of the year. As usual, SpaceX will broadcast the launch live, with coverage beginning around 15 minutes prior to liftoff (8:45 am EST/UTC-5).

The National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) says that SpaceX remains on track to attempt its last Falcon 9 launch and landing of the year after an almost two-month delay.

Originally scheduled to launch as early as October, the secretive orbital espionage agency’s NROL-108 launch plans were quietly revealed in routine communication permission requests filed by SpaceX with the FCC. Unfortunately, those plans came around the same time as a Falcon 9 booster engine issue aborted a SpaceX launch at the last second and forced the company to undergo a quick but extensive anomaly investigation. As it turns out, the Falcon 9 booster assigned to support NROL-108 (B1059) was practically siblings with the three new boosters affected by the investigation.

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SpaceX may have had to swap some of the nine Merlin 1D engines on B1059, although a far less likely outcome given that B1059 had successfully completed four launches and landings at that point. Ultimately, while nothing is known for sure, payload-side issues with the NROL-108 satellite(s) are the most likely cause of most of the eight-week delay that followed. Now, confirmed by the NRO on December 14th, SpaceX is scheduled to launch its second mission for the spy agency no earlier than (NET) 9 am to 12 pm EST (14:00-17:00 UTC) on Thursday, December 17th.

SpaceX will reuse Falcon 9 B1059.4 on NROL-108, marking the booster’s fifth launch and landing in a bit more than 12 months. (Richard Angle)

For SpaceX, this will be the third time in a single month that a customer has effectively leapfrogged several Falcon 9 booster reuse milestones, once again exhibiting an extreme amount of confidence in the company’s expertise with flight-proven rockets. On December 6th, Falcon 9 booster B1058 lifted off for the fourth time in support of SpaceX’s CRS-21 space station resupply mission for NASA, marking the space agency’s first launch on a twice- or thrice-flown booster.

On December 13th, carrying a large communications satellite for Sirius XM, another Falcon 9 booster lifted off for the seventh time, becoming the first private customer to launch on a five-flight or six-flight SpaceX rocket.

Falcon 9 B1058 launches for the fourth time carrying the first Cargo Dragon 2 spacecraft. (SpaceX)
Falcon 9 B1051 lifted off for the seventh time with a Sirius XM radio satellite a week later. (Richard Angle)

As few as four days after SXM-7, SpaceX is now scheduled to launch the mysterious NROL-108 mission. It will be the first time the NRO has launched a payload on a flight-proven commercial rocket of any kind, as well as its first launch on a two-flight, three-flight, or four-flight booster – by far the biggest numerical leap a SpaceX customer has ever taken. NRO’s first and only SpaceX launch – technically contracted by spacecraft provider Bell Aerospace, not NRO itself – was completed in May 2017.

While less significant, NROL-108 will also be SpaceX’s first US government launch on a four-flight Falcon 9 booster, yet another indication that even its most conservative customers have fully bought into the value and technical viability of reusable rockets.

After launch, Falcon 9 B1059 will flip around and head back towards the Florida coast for a landing at one of SpaceX’s two East Coast Landing Zones. Deploying a minute or so after booster separation, Falcon 9’s two payload fairing halves are expected to splash down some 330 km (~205 mi) downrange, where SpaceX recovery ships GO Search and GO Ms Tree will attempt recovery.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla Cybercab spotted testing on public roads for the first time

The car was spotted just minutes from Tesla’s Engineering Headquarters in Los Altos, California. There are a few interesting tidbits we can gather from the photo and the information shared with it.

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Credit: Teslarati

The Tesla Cybercab has been spotted testing on public roads for the first time, marking a substantial step forward in the vehicle’s development.

The car was spotted just minutes from Tesla’s Engineering Headquarters in Los Altos, California. There are a few interesting tidbits we can gather from the photo and the information shared with it:

The vehicle had a driver and side view mirrors equipped on it, which seems to be pretty expected, especially at this stage.

Tesla might have been using its Full Self-Driving software with the vehicle as it enters this new stage of testing on public roads. This seems most likely, especially as the car, which has long been developed to be void of a steering wheel and pedals, will totally rely on autonomous tech to transport one or two passengers to their destination.

Additionally, side view mirrors are required by law at delivery, and Tesla was likely looking to keep things as safe and elementary as possible, especially with this early stage of testing.

As this is the first time the vehicle has been spotted on public roads and the first time it was likely testing on them, Tesla was being cautious.

There have been a lot of developments with Cybercab over the past few weeks, as the car has been spotted testing on the Fremont Factory’s test track, units have been seen outside of Gigafactory Texas’s crash testing facility, and there has been some additional speculation about what the vehicle’s standard equipment will be.

There have also been quite a few job postings by Tesla for manufacturing and production roles related to Cybercab over the past few weeks.

Yesterday, Tesla’s Board Chair, Robyn Denholm, revealed that the company could end up building Cybercab with a steering wheel and pedals, contrary to what Tesla and CEO Elon Musk have wanted to do.

Tesla Cybercab might be getting a huge change

The vehicle has yet to reach that stage of regulatory testing, but Tesla wants to start volume production in Q2. If it wants to release the vehicle without any manual controls, that means that Full Self-Driving will need to be completed within the next eight months.

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Tesla hints it could see ‘a few more vehicles’ released soon

Denholm said on CNBC yesterday that “we do have a few other vehicles coming out.”

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Tesla Board Chair Robyn Denholm hinted the company could see “a few more vehicles” coming out and being released soon, although there is no indication of what could be on the way based on her comments.

However, Tesla has hinted toward several potential releases in the coming years, as other executives, including Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen, have talked briefly about what could be on the way.

Denholm said on CNBC yesterday that “we do have a few other vehicles coming out.”

It was a vague and almost cryptic sentence, as, in all honesty, it was not completely clear whether she was talking about recent releases that are just making their way to market, like the Model 3 and Model Y “Standard,” or new vehicles altogether.

Nevertheless, it’s worth dissecting.

Tesla “Standard” Models

On October 7, Tesla launched the Standard Model 3 and Model Y, stripped-down versions of their now “Premium” siblings. The Standard trims lack premium features like leather seats, a rear touchscreen, and a glass roof, among other features.

Tesla begins deliveries of its affordable Model Y Standard

These cars are just starting to be delivered for the first time, so it is possible that Denholm was referring to these cars.

Potential Model 2 Hint?

There has always been a looming vehicle model that many Tesla fans and owners have been intrigued by: the Model 2.

This car was hinted at being the $25,000 model that Tesla was rumored to be developing, and many thought that was the vehicle that would be released earlier this month, not the Standard Model 3 and Model Y.

Instead, the Model 2 could be something that would enable Tesla to reach an entirely new consumer base, including those who are not able to swing the payment for the company’s more premium offerings.

It seems Tesla will have to launch some sort of extremely affordable model in the future, and with the Cybercab being slotted at that rough price point, it would not be out of the question for it to be in the realm of possibility for future releases.

It’s worth noting, however, that it is probably unlikely this will happen. Tesla is so deadset focused on autonomy, it seems Cybercab would take extreme precedence over the unconfirmed “Model 2.”

Cybertruck-inspired SUV

Tesla fans have been begging the company to develop a full-size SUV that would compete with the Ford Expedition or Chevrolet Tahoe, but the company has not given any indication that this would be something it would build.

Nevertheless, there was a very subtle hint in a recent promotional clip that showed a Cyber SUV mock-up placed strategically next to a clay model of a Model 3:

Tesla appears to be mulling a Cyber SUV design

The Model X is simply not what people want when it comes to an SUV, as it does not have the seating capacity and cargo space that many need with a full-sized SUV.

This issue, in particular, has been one that has been extremely relevant to the company’s future lineup as consumers have shown they would be interested in a Tesla vehicle that fit this description.

Additionally, von Holzhausen said in September that a Cyber SUV or a smaller electric pickup with a more traditional design is “definitely things we’ve considered…We’re working on so many innovative and fun things.”

Tesla gives big hint that it will build Cyber SUV, smaller Cybertruck

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Investor's Corner

Tesla enters new stability phase, firm upgrades and adjusts outlook

Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla is entering a new phase of stability in terms of vehicle deliveries, one firm wrote in a new note during the final week of October, backing its position with an upgrade and price target increase on the stock.

Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.

While most firms are interested in highlighting Tesla’s future growth, which will be catalyzed mostly by the advent of self-driving vehicles, autonomy, and the company’s all-in mentality on AI and robotics, Pozdnyakov is solely focusing on vehicle deliveries.

The analyst wrote in a note to investors that he believes Tesla’s updated vehicle lineup, which includes its new affordable “Standard” trims of the Model 3 and Model Y, is going to stabilize the company’s delivery volumes and return the company to annual growth.

Tesla launches two new affordable models with ‘Standard’ Model 3, Y offerings

Tesla launched the new affordable Model 3 and Model Y “Standard” trims on October 7, which introduced two stripped-down, less premium versions of the all-electric sedan and crossover.

They are both priced at under $40,000, with the Model 3 at $37,990 and the Model Y at $39,990, and while these prices may not necessarily be what consumers were expecting, they are well under what Kelley Blue Book said was the average new car transaction price for September, which swelled above $50,000.

Despite the rollout of these two new models, it is interesting to hear that a Wall Street firm would think that Tesla is going to return to more stable delivery figures and potentially enter a new growth phase.

Many Wall Street firms have been more focused on AI, Robotics, and Tesla’s self-driving project, which are the more prevalent things that will drive investor growth over the next few years.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, tends to focus on the company’s prowess in AI and self-driving. However, he did touch on vehicle deliveries in the coming years in a recent note.

Ives said in a note on October 2:

“While EV demand is expected to fall with the EV tax credit expiration, this was a great bounce-back quarter for TSLA to lay the groundwork for deliveries moving forward, but there is still work to do to gain further ground from a delivery perspective.”

Tesla has some things to figure out before it can truly consider guaranteed stability from a delivery standpoint. Initially, the next two quarters will be a crucial way to determine demand without the $7,500 EV tax credit. It will also begin to figure out if its new affordable models are attractive enough at their current price point to win over consumers.

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