News
SpaceX test-fires Falcon 9 for expendable Block 5 launch as bad weather threatens delays
SpaceX has fired up twice-flown Falcon 9 booster B1047 ahead of Block 5’s second expendable launch ever, but the company avoided its usual confirmation that a ‘quick look’ data analysis shows the vehicle as ready for launch.
Aside from the unusual phrasing of SpaceX’s static fire confirmation, stating instead that the company “is assessing data”, the weather forecast for the launch of AMOS-17 is looking about as dreary as it was during SpaceX’s most recent July 25th launch, CRS-18. CRS-18 was scrubbed once before the instantaneous launch window luckily coincided with an only partially metaphorical gap in the clouds. However, scheduled to lift off no earlier than 6:52 pm EDT (22:52 UTC), August 3rd, the AMOS-17 commsat launch features a comparatively luxurious ~90-minute window, giving SpaceX a much better shot at ‘threading the needle’.
Still, as indicated in the tweet above, the combination of a horrible weather forecast (70% chance of weather violation on Aug. 3, 60% on Aug. 4), uncertainty surrounding Falcon 9’s static fire test results, and the gravity of this particular launch all suggest that delays are likely.
With most things in rocketry, the adage, “Better late than never!” almost invariably holds true when dealing with late-stage launch vehicle processing, and SpaceX will be taking that to the extreme with this launch for reasons that will become clear. If SpaceX can avoid the growing probability of minor delays, generally an annoying non-issue more than anything else, customer Spacecom will certainly be appreciative, but the most important thing is ensuring the safe orbital delivery of AMOS-17.
Weighing roughly 6500 kg (14,300 lb) fully-fueled, AMOS-17 is a relatively large geostationary communications satellite built by Boeing and, practically speaking, is meant to replace Amos-6, an Israeli-built satellite that was destroyed in September 2016 during a catastrophic Falcon 9 failure. Spacecom effectively took the insurance funds it received from the loss of Amos-6, purchased AMOS-17 via Boeing, and then chose a contract option that gave the company a free Falcon 9 launch instead of taking a cash payout of $50M.
Be it financial necessity or a genuine decision to trust SpaceX that led Spacecom to manifest its replacement satellite on Falcon 9, a second failure and loss of payload (AMOS-17) during this launch would be a spectacular embarrassment and a major wound to SpaceX’s growing reputation as a reliable launch provider. If there is any launch in particular that SpaceX explicitly wants to avoid a failure on, it’s probably AMOS-17.
Perhaps to this end, SpaceX has actually chosen – presumably at the request or suggestion of Spacecom – to expend a Falcon 9 Block 5 booster in support of the AMOS-17 launch. Confirmed by SpaceX to be B1047.2, the company will preclude a landing attempt and instead sacrifice a booster that might otherwise fly a dozen more launches to give Spacecom a larger safety margin and help AMOS-17 start serving customers as quickly as possible. The sooner AMOS-17 can reach its final geostationary orbit (GEO), the sooner Spacecom can begin generating revenue from the satellite.
Finally, SpaceX fairing recovery vessel GO Ms. Tree (formerly Mr. Steven) has just departed Port Canaveral (c. August 1st) and is headed nearly 1000 km (600 mi) east into the Atlantic Ocean for what could be the ship’s second successful fairing catch ever. Stay tuned as SpaceX provides updates and we near AMOS-17’s tentative launch date.
Check out Teslarati’s Marketplace! We offer Tesla accessories, including for the Tesla Cybertruck and Tesla Model 3.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
