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SpaceX on track for first four-launch month ever
With the first mission under its belt, SpaceX is on track to complete four orbital-class launches in a single month for the first time ever, an encouraging sign as it seeks to rapidly deploy its Starlink constellation.
A June 3rd launch of 60 Starlink v1.0 satellites – the seventh such mission – kicked off SpaceX’s potentially record-breaking month while also marking the first time a Falcon 9 booster has successfully launched and landed five times. Itself coming just a week after SpaceX successfully launched NASA astronauts to the International Space Station for the first time ever, the company has done the exact opposite of resting on its laurels after that historic achievement.
Aside from Starlink V1 L7, SpaceX has another two Starlink missions scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) June 12th and 24th, as well as a critical US military GPS satellite launch NET June 30th. While the margins are exceptionally thin, there’s still a decent chance that June 2020 could wind up being SpaceX’s first four-launch month.
Of course, there are many, many reasons that that might not happen. SpaceX has completed more than two-thirds of its 88 successful launches in the last three and a half years, a little more than a third of the time Falcon 9 has been operational. In those 3.5 years, the company has managed to achieve three launches in a single month on four separate occasions – most recently in January 2020, while the closest SpaceX has come was four launches in 32 days in 2017. As such, a four-launch month wouldn’t exactly be game-changing relative to SpaceX’s past achievements, but it would leave the company on pace for 2020 to be its most productive year yet.
As of now, SpaceX has completed nine launches in a little over five months, pacing towards a tie with 2018, when it completed a record 21 missions. If SpaceX manages four – or even three – launches this month, its moving average for the year will jump to 22 or 24.
Regardless, a four-launch month is only possible this June because of SpaceX’s recent success upgrading a second drone ship – Just Read The Instructions (JRTI) for East Coast recovery operations. With Starlink V1 L9 and GPS III SV03 scheduled on June 24th and 30th, there would be no way for drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) to head out to sea, return after Starlink V1 L9, and return to its landing zone in the Atlantic in time for another booster recovery.
By completing its June 3rd East Coast debut and June 7th return to port, drone ship JRTI can now be considered operational and should offer a new level of flexibility to SpaceX, potentially enabling more than four drone ship landings in a single month. Add in SpaceX’s twin Cape Canaveral Landing Zones (LZ-1/2) and the company should soon have the ability to perform dozens of Falcon 9 launches annually in a repeatable, reliable fashion. At least for the next year or two, SpaceX should have no shortage of payloads – both commercial and internal – to launch as it gradually improves its launch cadence.
SpaceX has 14 commercial launches scheduled in the second half of 2020, while an additional 20-24 Starlink launches were planned around the start of the year. If the company can pull off three Starlink launches this month, it will be on track to complete ~18 this year – more than enough to begin a limited service roll-out to customers around the world. For now, Starlink V1 L8 is scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) ~5:30 am EDT (09:30 UTC) on Friday, June 12th. Falcon 9 booster B1059, an expendable upper stage, and 60 new Starlink satellites could roll out for their prelaunch static fire anytime within the next few days.
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Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
