News
SpaceX just caught its first rocket nosecone in 5 months (and the booster landed, too)
One of SpaceX’s net-outfitted recovery ships has just completed the company’s first successful Falcon 9 nosecone (payload fairing) catch in more than five months, although the ship’s twin was not so lucky.
Known as GO Ms. Tree (formerly Mr. Steven) and GO Ms. Chief, today’s recovery attempt marked the second time ever that both ships simultaneously attempted to catch both halves of a Falcon 9 payload fairing. Outfitted with giant nets, those ships are meant to keep those featherweight fairings – flying with the help of GPS-guided parafoils – out of corrosive saltwater by being in exactly the right place at exactly the right time some 700-1000+ km (430-620+ mi) downrange. Unsurprisingly, consistently catching Falcon fairings has proven to be incredibly challenging — perhaps even more so than recovering Falcon 9 boosters.
As evidence, on today’s attempt – despite both ships being present in almost identical conditions, only one ship – Ms. Tree – managed to catch its assigned fairing half, while Ms. Chief missed her shot. For fairing recovery in general, this is SpaceX’s first successful catch in more than five months and third successful catch ever since attempts first began in early 2018.
Given the mechanics of the feat, it’s not all that surprising that Falcon fairing recovery has proven so exceptionally challenging. First and foremost, Falcon payload fairings are only worth around $6 million total – less than 10% of Falcon 9’s current base price and even less for Falcon Heavy, advertised with a base price of $90M per launch. If, for example, SpaceX ends up spending $100-200 million developing fairing recovery, it will take a bare minimum of 15-30+ flawless recoveries (of both halves, no less) to recoup the company’s investment.
Still, given that SpaceX will need no fewer than 75-190+ dedicated Falcon 9 launches to orbit its entire licensed Starlink constellation, it’s not surprising that the company has deemed the investment and major challenges worth it. While the payload fairing only represents 10% of the cost of a new Falcon 9, accounting for the booster reuse that is more or less guaranteed on all Starlink missions means that the fairing could actually represent more like 30%+ of the cost to SpaceX for each internal Starlink launch.
Ultimately, even on the low end of Starlink’s required Falcon 9 launches, recovering and reusing payload fairings could save SpaceX hundreds of millions of dollars. Not only that, reliable fairing recovery would mean that SpaceX can close the recovery loop on both Falcon 9 boosters and fairings, representing some 75-80% of the rocket’s total cost. In other words, recovering fairings could allow SpaceX to lower the cost of launch to something like $15 or $20M for each Starlink mission — simply inconceivable and definitely unbeatable for more than 15 metric tons (33,000 lb) to low Earth orbit (LEO).
Meanwhile, some 35 minutes before Ms. Tree caught her third Falcon fairing, Falcon 9 booster B1051 nailed its third drone ship landing in 10 months, setting the rocket up for a fourth launch and landing sometime in the near future.
A little over an hour after liftoff, Falcon 9’s second stage spun itself up like a propeller and released the fourth batch of 60 Starlink satellites, completing the company’s third flawless launch of 2020 and taking SpaceX a step towards providing Starlink internet to customers around the world.
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Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
