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SpaceX’s first Starship test flight imminent as rocket nosecone nears completion

CEO Elon Musk has published the latest glimpse inside SpaceX's South Texas Starship rocket factory. (Elon Musk)

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Elon Musk has posted a new glimpse inside SpaceX’s South Texas Starship factory, revealing a nearly-completed rocket nosecone and indicating that the first upgraded Starship prototype’s flight debut is imminent.

SpaceX teams have been working around the clock for a little over a month to build the first full-scale, flightworthy Starship prototype, a process that only began after two ‘test tanks’ were fabricated, assembled, and pressurized until they burst on January 10th and 28th. Built with improved tools and methods, those test results – particularly from the second test tank – allowed SpaceX to empirically confirm that its current infrastructure and techniques are ready to manufacture orbital-class (and even human-rated) Starships right now.

And so work on the first truly flightworthy Starship prototype – known as SN01 (serial number 01) – thus began in earnest around mid-January, perhaps less than a month ago. Over the course of that month, SpaceX’s South Texas team has made spectacular progress. Starship SN01’s business half – comprised of a Raptor engine section, a liquid oxygen tank, a methane tank, and all associated tank domes and plumbing – is likely just a single big stacking and welding event away from being structurally complete. The upper section of the prototype – Starship’s curved nose and a few less-critical steel rings – has, however, been a bit more elusive.

Aside from a few partial glimpses earlier this month, that nose appeared for the first time two or so weeks on a local resident’s livestream earlier today – just a few hours before Musk offered an even better view inside the same tent it was spotted in. Situated in the second large sprung structure erected at SpaceX’s Boca Chica, Texas facilities, Musk’s video revealed that that tent – really only completed less than two weeks ago – is already full of Starship production hardware.

An almost identical tent shown off on February 8th appears to be more dedicated to Starship tank production, while the second tent (top, February 19th) is focused primarily on Starship nose section production. (Elon Musk)

Without exaggerating, it’s safe to say that SpaceX has effectively gone from a handful of parts worth of Texas rocket production to a multi-vehicle, Starship production line concurrently manufacturing multiple vehicles in about eight weeks. While it would be theoretically easy for critics and a more general audience to see little more than some cheap stainless steel parts in a few hastily-constructed temporary tents, the reality is that SpaceX has already proven – at a minimum – that a steel Starship built with the exact same tools, facilities, and methods will likely be capable of spaceflight.

SpaceX’s January 2020 Starship test tank program proved as much, demonstrating that thin steel tanks built in tents can serve as orbital-class pressure vessels and survive at internal pressures greater as high as 8.5 bar (125 psi) while filled with cryogenic (extremely cold) liquid. Meanwhile, Tesla’s Fremont factory General Assembly line 4 (GA4) – having continuously churned out high-quality Model 3s for more than a year – has proven that sprung structures can make for fast, cheap, and more or less permanent factory solutions. Prospective SpaceX competitor Blue Origin even based its own brand new headquarters – opened in January 2020 – around an odd U-shaped sprung structure.

SpaceX’s first and second Starship test tanks pictured on January 9th and January 28th. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
Erected in less than two months, SpaceX’s twin-sprung-structure Starship factory represents some 80,000 ft² (7000 m²) of enclosed factory space. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)

Nevertheless, SpaceX’s small test tank successes do not necessarily guarantee that the same kind of tests performed at full scale will be equally successful. The biggest proof of concept for SpaceX’s upgraded Starship production methods will involve manufacturing, fueling, static-firing, and – eventually – flying a complete Starship prototype built with the same methods as those test tanks.

The pressure vessel section of Starship SN01 – said pathfinder prototype – appears to be nearly complete, missing only its integrated engine section and oxygen tank dome before it could theoretically be ready to start cryogenic testing. Incredibly, information acquired and published by NASASpaceflight.com reporter Michael Baylor indicates that SpaceX wants to complete the prototype and transport Starship to its nearby launch site just ten days from now.

Starship SN01’s tank and engine section is likely just a few days away from being structurally complete. (SPadre – 02/17/20)

A step further, if things go as planned, SpaceX wants to install Starship SN01’s three Raptor engines and perform a live static fire test as soon as early March. In short, SpaceX’s Starship program is likely about to enter a new period of ambitious, rapid-fire testing. Stay tuned!

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk sheds two new bits of detail on Starship after 13th test launch

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Credit: SpaceX

Elon Musk shed two new bits of detail on Starship following its 13th test launch, which was an overwhelming success.

SpaceX launched Starship for the 13th time last Friday after two delays: one on Monday when several Raptor engines did not ignite, and another on Thursday due to unfavorable weather conditions in Starbase, Texas.

The launch was overwhelmingly successful. SpaceX was able to complete a necessary test of the heat shield tiles by increasing the acceleration of Starship from launch throughout the flight; 20 Starlink v3 satellites were released with no issue; the Super Heavy Booster landed safely in the Gulf of America, Ship successfully reignited engines while in space; and it also splashed down without incident in the Indian Ocean.

SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before

Nevertheless, more details are coming out about Starship, and Musk is doing the talking.

Starship Will Be Retrieved in the Ocean

Musk revealed on Tuesday night that Starship would be recovered by a ship in the Indian Ocean. SpaceX routinely tries to recover Starship after splashdown in an effort to find out more about the flight by examining the spacecraft afterward.

This helps engineers find out more about why things might have happened, allows them to examine any potential damage or anomalies that might have occurred, and increases the chances of an even more successful flight next time thanks to the additional information recovered.

Ship Could Have Been Caught by Tower Arms, Musk claims

Musk has already indicated that SpaceX will plan to attempt a catch of Starship with the 14th test flight. While this would be a major accomplishment, it would be an expected next step, considering the fact that the Super Heavy Booster has already been caught by the chopsticks on numerous occasions.

A ship catch would be a great indication of where SpaceX stands in terms of reusability and launch cadence. A successful catch with relatively no incidents would be a good sign that SpaceX is nearing a more frequent launch of Starship, but also that the reusability of the massive rocket would be something many would expect in the near future.

It is a necessity to make life multiplanetary.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk updates the SpaceX timeline for Mars

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Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX
Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX

Elon Musk has updated his timeline for when humans will walk on Mars and for when ships will simply get there.

The objective of getting to Mars has been one of Musk’s biggest goals since becoming a serial entrepreneur and realizing that time on Earth is limited. Musk has said several times he hopes to die on Mars, and not by impact.

Musk now believes that people will be on Mars in “roughly 5 to 7 years.” He said that a Mars lander will get there “a few years sooner.”

The response from Musk comes after NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said that SpaceX’s biggest priority is the Moon and not Mars. Because of this, Isaacman conceded that he believes nuclear power and propulsion investments will provide “potentially the pathway with the fewest miracles required to put four people on Mars in the next 10 to 15 years.”

Of course, this is what NASA can do through taxpayer funding and nuclear investments, he added.

Musk’s grand ambitions are much more optimistic than most, and it is certainly a double-edged sword. This is not the first time timelines for Mars have been somewhat lofty, especially to those normal thinkers like you and me, not super geniuses like Musk.

SpaceX Board has set a Mars bonus for Elon Musk

In fact, the SpaceX and Tesla frontman has said on at least a dozen occasions that we could be on Mars in the coming years. Musk said 2020 would be the big year as early as 2009. In 2020, he was “highly confident” of a landing in 2026, and had even said 2024 in a best-case scenario.

The point is, the range has varied, and it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll get there. This latest adjustment to the timeline is typical of Musk, and while the Moon has seemingly taken priority over Mars, it is still worth mentioning that the ultimate goal is to make life multiplanetary, and it starts potentially with the Red Planet.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX gets an absolutely crazy price target after rough IPO

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) got an absolutely crazy price target rating from Raymond James after the company experienced a tough first few weeks following its Initial Public Offering (IPO).

Despite the tumultuous start, SpaceX has plenty of believers, and the company’s massively successful Starship launch last Friday, its 13th test flight of the massive rocket, went so smoothly that Raymond James analysts pushed its price target on the company to roughly 7 times its current trading level.

SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before

The firm officially put a “Strong Buy” rating and an $800 price target on the stock. It currently trades at around $113. Its all-time high is $225.64, reaching this trading level shortly after shares first went public.

Raymond James’ price target is tied to the firm’s confidence after Starship’s 13th test flight. Analysts at the firm said it was an incremental step that reduces engineering risks, citing the widely successful heat shield test that CEO Elon Musk recently detailed, the smooth deployment of Starlink V3 satellites, and a successful in-space engine relight.

SpaceX also managed to see Starship splash down safely in the Indian Ocean, while the Super Heavy Booster fell down to the Gulf of America with no incidents.

It is interesting to see these launches have such a tremendous impact on the stock and what investors think of it. After SpaceX initially delayed the Starship launch last week, shares fell tremendously. Most probably did not realize that the stand-down is a standard practice, especially if everything is not perfect.

The mission was initially aborted due to an issue with Raptor engines. This was resolved, and Starship launched last Friday after another delay on Thursday, which was caused by weather.

Now that analysts have seen what SpaceX launches are capable of and how impressive the feat is, firms are adjusting their price targets accordingly, making it known that they have high expectations for the space exploration company.

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