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SpaceX targeting five East Coast Falcon launches in first month of 2022

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In a new statement focused on Cape Canaveral’s “exceptionally busy” 2022 schedule, a senior US Space Force (formerly Air Force) official has implied that SpaceX is already targeting five East Coast launches in the first month of the new year.

While the director didn’t specifically state who is launching, they did confirm that “seven total launches” are scheduled out of Cape Canaveral facilities (including NASA’s Kennedy Space Center) in January 2022 – five to “polar” orbits and two to more traditional semi-equatorial inclinations. While most of the “polar” launches referred to are likely not actually polar under the definition of launching satellites that will more or less orbit the Earth’s poles, the phrase still all but guarantees that five of those planned launches are Falcon 9 rockets.

The news cuts both ways, though, as it also strongly implies that SpaceX’s first Falcon Heavy launch in more than two and a half years will have to wait until February 2022 at the earliest.

Of the seven launches the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS) operations director says are targeted for January 2022, public schedules indicate with confidence that two are non-SpaceX. A United Launch Alliance (ULA) Atlas V rocket appears to remain on track to launch the Space Force’s USSF-8 mission – a pair of geostationary surveillance satellites for the US military – no earlier than January 21st. Additionally, while delays are likely, startup Astra revealed plans last month to attempt its first Cape Canaveral ‘Rocket 3’ launch in January 2022.

Beyond those two missions, there is no evidence of other non-SpaceX launches planned this month, which implies that SpaceX is responsible for all five other missions. Delays are obviously possible but SpaceX has already repeatedly demonstrated the ability to complete four East Coast launches in less than a month.

Up first, SpaceX is scheduled to start another potentially record-breaking year of launches with its Starlink 4-5 mission, which is on track to lift off no earlier than (NET) 4:49 pm EST (21:49 UTC) on Thursday, January 6th. NET 10:25 am EST (15:25 UTC), January 13th, another Falcon 9 rocket is scheduled to launch SpaceX’s third dedicated rideshare mission (Transporter-3), sending another batch of several dozen small satellites to orbit. SpaceX’s last confirmed launch of the month is Italy’s CSG-2 Earth observation satellite, which is scheduled to fly on another Falcon 9 rocket as early as late January. Two are headed to actual semi-polar orbits, while Starlink 4-5 is targeting a 53.2-degree orbital inclination – far from polar but still requiring Falcon 9 to launch to the southeast.

That leaves room for two more Starlink launches to hit the USSF’s estimate five “polar” missions – if SpaceX can manage the feat. Based on SpaceX’s record LC-40 and LC-39A turnaround times, beginning launches on January 6th ramps up the difficulty but doesn’t make five launches impossible. Assuming SpaceX can repeatedly turn both LC-40 and LC-39A around in ~10 days, SpaceX could theoretically launch Starlink 4-5 on 1/6 (39A), Transporter-3 on 1/13 (LC-40), Starlink x-x on 1/16 (39A), CSG-2 on 1/23 (LC-40), and Starlink x-x on 1/26. Technically, CSG-2 could launch anytime after Jan 22nd or 23rd and the third hypothetical Starlink mission could also tolerate up to five days of delays before it would slip into February.

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Finally, depending on how strong Starlink V1.5 production is, SpaceX’s West Coast Vandenberg facilities could technically support one launch this month. It’s also possible that SpaceX will hold off on internal missions to ensure pad readiness for the US military’s NROL-87 Falcon 9 launch – scheduled NET February 2nd, 2022 as of four months ago.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk has a crazy prediction about AI in two years

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Daniel Oberhaus, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Elon Musk is, in many respects, one of the biggest and most influential figures in modern-day artificial intelligence.

Given that Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI are all looked at in their respective fields as leaders to an extent, each of them has a heavy influence on the future of AI, even though two of them are not thought of, at face value, as AI companies.

Musk has grand expectations for what is to come with AI, not only as a form of assistance to make human lives easier, but to make humans multiplanetary and solve some of the biggest issues that face us today. But even he is astounded by AI’s pace of progress.

He believes that in two years, AI will be so mind-blowing it might be unrecognizable.

This progress can be seen in a variety of ways, but perhaps the most popular way people have shown AI’s progress, especially on social media, is through an incredibly arbitrary way of watching Will Smith eat spaghetti:

This is a great way to show people how AI is improving, especially from a perspective that examines how it can manufacture images and video from prompts. AI is an incredibly complex concept, however, and it goes much deeper than Will Smith eating Italian food.

Musk’s most widely adopted method of AI is likely Tesla Full Self-Driving, which impacts millions of people as they utilize it to increase safety with their travel. Musk has routinely pushed incredibly aggressive timelines for self-driving, especially unsupervised.

Perhaps this perspective is why he feels that things will be solved in a timeframe that is much more aggressive than most of us would think. Regardless, the progress of AI is moving fast, and it seems that Musk’s expectations for it could be high.

But if it can actually achieve full-length motion pictures and even more realistic production value, it will be hard to distinguish between reality and AI very soon.

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Tesla just built it 10 millionth car

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla just officially confirmed it has built its 10 millionth car, a major milestone for the company that started producing sustainable electric powertrains less than two decades ago.

In that time, Tesla has truly revolutionized the automotive industry, disrupting the idea of what a car should be, how it should be fueled, and how it truly impacts day-to-day life.

Tesla achieved this feat across four production facilities: the Fremont Factory in Fremont, California, Gigafactory Shanghai in China, Gigafactory Berlin in Germany, and Gigafactory Texas in Austin, Texas.

The 10 millionth vehicle was a Diamond Black Model Y.

Over the course of the past roughly 18 years, Tesla has evolved its lineup from a sporty sedan built on a Lotus body to a lineup of various body styles, performance metrics, and other characteristics that make each one unique.

This is an incredible achievement for a company that is young compared to what it goes up against. When Tesla entered the automotive market, Ford, GM, and Stellantis widely dominated the playing field. Since then, Tesla has caused such a disruption that these three massive brands had to scramble to create EV projects of their own.

Despite their best efforts, they have not been able to match the prowess or the effectiveness of Tesla. They are all reliant on Tesla’s charging infrastructure, their software is inferior, and their self-driving projects are elementary in comparison.

Tesla felt its fair share of growing pains over the years as well. As recent at 2019, there were complaints about build quality, paint quality, and overall luxuriousness. These things have all been improved upon through the company’s maturity, and these strides in quality have led to this 10 million vehicle production achievement, something that other small-and-scrappy EV makers will hope to accomplish one day.

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SpaceX scores another massive Pentagon deal to support military satellites

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SpaceX just picked up another $1.6 billion from the Pentagon, with the U.S. Space Force awarding two task orders worth $1.6 billion to fly 18 Falcon 9 missions from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California through the end of 2027. The launches will carry satellites for the Space Based Sensing and Targeting portfolio, a set of programs meant to help the military detect and track airborne threats and relay that information across forces in near real time.

The award falls under National Security Space Launch Phase 3 Lane 1, the Space Force’s faster, commercial style procurement track for missions that do not require the military’s most demanding certification process. It is also the largest single order publicly disclosed under that program so far, and the first task order issued since the Space Force nearly tripled Lane 1’s contract ceiling from $5.6 billion to $17 billion on July 17.

SpaceX to become America’s Military data backbone for missiles, drones, and warfighters

Eric Zarybnisky, the Space Force’s acting portfolio acquisition executive for space access, said the entire process, from identifying the requirement to signing the contract, took about two months, including a month set aside for companies to prepare proposals.

SpaceX is not just launching these satellites. It already holds the contracts to build two of the programs within the same portfolio, $4.16 billion for the Space Based Airborne Moving Target Indicator system and $2.29 billion for the Space Data Network Backbone, which Teslarati covered in May. That means SpaceX is now responsible for both building key pieces of the military’s next generation sensing network and getting them into orbit.

With this latest award, SpaceX’s Pentagon contract total for 2026 alone tops $8 billion, adding to a defense portfolio that already includes the Golden Dome missile defense software group SpaceX joined in April and a string of GPS launches it inherited after ULA’s Vulcan rocket ran into a booster anomaly, which we detailed in March.

Lane 1’s vendor pool technically includes seven companies: SpaceX, ULA, Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, Stoke Space, Impulse Space, and Relativity Space. In practice, SpaceX remains the only provider with the combination of launch cadence, flight proven Falcon 9 hardware, and West Coast infrastructure to support a campaign requiring roughly one Vandenberg launch a month for the next year and a half.

Some lawmakers have flagged the growing concentration of national security launches with one company as a risk worth watching. For now, the Space Force keeps backing SpaceX, with it being the company that shows up ready to launch.

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