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SpaceX targeting five East Coast Falcon launches in first month of 2022

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In a new statement focused on Cape Canaveral’s “exceptionally busy” 2022 schedule, a senior US Space Force (formerly Air Force) official has implied that SpaceX is already targeting five East Coast launches in the first month of the new year.

While the director didn’t specifically state who is launching, they did confirm that “seven total launches” are scheduled out of Cape Canaveral facilities (including NASA’s Kennedy Space Center) in January 2022 – five to “polar” orbits and two to more traditional semi-equatorial inclinations. While most of the “polar” launches referred to are likely not actually polar under the definition of launching satellites that will more or less orbit the Earth’s poles, the phrase still all but guarantees that five of those planned launches are Falcon 9 rockets.

The news cuts both ways, though, as it also strongly implies that SpaceX’s first Falcon Heavy launch in more than two and a half years will have to wait until February 2022 at the earliest.

Of the seven launches the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS) operations director says are targeted for January 2022, public schedules indicate with confidence that two are non-SpaceX. A United Launch Alliance (ULA) Atlas V rocket appears to remain on track to launch the Space Force’s USSF-8 mission – a pair of geostationary surveillance satellites for the US military – no earlier than January 21st. Additionally, while delays are likely, startup Astra revealed plans last month to attempt its first Cape Canaveral ‘Rocket 3’ launch in January 2022.

Beyond those two missions, there is no evidence of other non-SpaceX launches planned this month, which implies that SpaceX is responsible for all five other missions. Delays are obviously possible but SpaceX has already repeatedly demonstrated the ability to complete four East Coast launches in less than a month.

Up first, SpaceX is scheduled to start another potentially record-breaking year of launches with its Starlink 4-5 mission, which is on track to lift off no earlier than (NET) 4:49 pm EST (21:49 UTC) on Thursday, January 6th. NET 10:25 am EST (15:25 UTC), January 13th, another Falcon 9 rocket is scheduled to launch SpaceX’s third dedicated rideshare mission (Transporter-3), sending another batch of several dozen small satellites to orbit. SpaceX’s last confirmed launch of the month is Italy’s CSG-2 Earth observation satellite, which is scheduled to fly on another Falcon 9 rocket as early as late January. Two are headed to actual semi-polar orbits, while Starlink 4-5 is targeting a 53.2-degree orbital inclination – far from polar but still requiring Falcon 9 to launch to the southeast.

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That leaves room for two more Starlink launches to hit the USSF’s estimate five “polar” missions – if SpaceX can manage the feat. Based on SpaceX’s record LC-40 and LC-39A turnaround times, beginning launches on January 6th ramps up the difficulty but doesn’t make five launches impossible. Assuming SpaceX can repeatedly turn both LC-40 and LC-39A around in ~10 days, SpaceX could theoretically launch Starlink 4-5 on 1/6 (39A), Transporter-3 on 1/13 (LC-40), Starlink x-x on 1/16 (39A), CSG-2 on 1/23 (LC-40), and Starlink x-x on 1/26. Technically, CSG-2 could launch anytime after Jan 22nd or 23rd and the third hypothetical Starlink mission could also tolerate up to five days of delays before it would slip into February.

Finally, depending on how strong Starlink V1.5 production is, SpaceX’s West Coast Vandenberg facilities could technically support one launch this month. It’s also possible that SpaceX will hold off on internal missions to ensure pad readiness for the US military’s NROL-87 Falcon 9 launch – scheduled NET February 2nd, 2022 as of four months ago.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla Robotaxi app update now tells riders if Cybercab is the better choice

Tesla’s Robotaxi app now shows ETAs, wait times and availability for Cybercab and Model Y.

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Concept art of a Tesla Cybercab in Las Vegas Strip as rendered via Grok

Tesla has rolled out a new vehicle selection screen in its Robotaxi app, and it puts the numbers riders care about most in front of them before they book.

Version 26.11.0 of the app shows the estimated arrival time, the expected wait and current availability for each vehicle option on a single screen, according to a video shared by @gheeunit  on X on November 7. Riders deciding between a Cybercab and a Model Y Robotaxi can now compare those figures side by side instead of picking a car first and learning how long it will take afterward.

Tesla first gave riders that choice on September 3, the day paid Cybercab rides began in Austin. The original version of the screen listed the Cybercab, which seats two, next to the Model Y, which seats four. A later build, 26.8.2, added a seating capacity indicator so groups knew which car would fit them. What it did not show was whether choosing the Cybercab meant standing on the curb a few extra minutes.

That question matters more now than it did two months ago. Tesla had 45 Cybercabs on the Texas DMV roster when rides started. By late October the state listed 573, alongside 631 Model Ys, and community trackers logged a record 1,576 Cybercab sightings across Austin on Halloween alone. With two large fleets sharing one service area, the closest car and the quickest pickup are not always the same vehicle.

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Inline availability also changes what happens when demand spikes. If no Cybercab is free nearby, the rider sees that on the selection screen rather than after trying to book one.

For now the comparison is mostly an Austin feature. Riders in Dallas, Houston, Fort Worth and the Florida markets are still matched with Model Y vehicles, though Tesla said on its third quarter earnings call that Cybercab rides would launch in Dallas this month.

The update follows a steady run of smaller changes to the rider experience. Late last month Tesla brought a quiet mode that blacks out the cabin screen to Model Y Robotaxis after first testing it in the Cybercab, and it has stretched Austin service to run from 6 a.m. to 2 a.m.

The Cybercab side of that selection screen is about to get much busier. Elon Musk said this week that Tesla will wind down Cybertruck production at Gigafactory Texas around the middle of 2027 to make room for more Cybercab output, and Tesla has said it is aiming to get Cybercabs to customers by the end of this year.

Tesla has not published official release notes for version 26.11.0.

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Tesla is ending Cybertruck production

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Credit: diagnosticdennis/Instagram and @smile__no via Tesla Owners of Santa Clarita Valley/X

Tesla is ending Cybertruck production sometime in mid-2027, according to CEO Elon Musk.

Musk made the announcement on X last night, which came as a shock to many. He said that the Cybertruck will end production “to make room for increased Cybercab production” at Gigafactory Texas.

It is a huge blow to the fans of Tesla who have come to love the Cybertruck and identify with it as a symbol of their fandom. It has been the best-selling electric pickup, but it has had an underwhelming sales performance in terms of what was expected. This is mostly due to Tesla not meeting the prices it planned to offer the Cybertruck, as its unveiling and actual release were four years apart.

Overall, the responses were mixed. Some fans understood the move toward Cybercab production, especially as Tesla is truly pushing the autonomous future through its Robotaxi platform. However, others did not understand it.

“Damn, how many Cybercabs do you guys need?” one response read. Another said it was “Sad but understandable.”Even analyst Gary Black had responded to the news, stating he hoped Tesla planned to replace it with a traditional pickup design.

It doesn’t seem like that will be the case.

Tesla is so hell-bent on delivering autonomy and eventually providing a driverless service that owning a car seems like an arbitrary idea, according to their thesis. Instead, Cybercabs will be available to pick you up and drop you off on demand, safely, without any human help.

As a result, Tesla has thinned its lineup considerably, and one can only ask where the vehicle lineup goes from here. Eventually, it seems like Cybercab could be the only vehicle that Tesla will sell.

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SpaceX’s next Starship flight set to make history on Friday the 13th

SpaceX is targeting Friday, November 13 for Starship Flight 15 and its first ship catch.

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SpaceX is targeting Friday, November 13 for Starship Flight 15, the mission the company plans to use for its first attempt at catching the ship itself with the launch tower.

SpaceX Vice President of Launch Kiko Dontchev shared the date on stage at the UP.Summit on Thursday, according to Ars Technica’s Eric Berger, who was in attendance. It is the first launch target to come directly from a SpaceX executive. Until now, the public schedule had relied on FAA air traffic planning slides, which listed Flight 15 for no earlier than November 8 and later November 12. SpaceX has not posted an official mission page yet, and no launch time has been shared.

The date lands inside the window Elon Musk sketched out last month. Speaking at Giga Texas on October 10, Musk said the flight would “probably launch a little bit before Thanksgiving,” as Teslarati reported. On SpaceX’s third quarter earnings call ten days later, he confirmed that Flight 15 would try to catch both the Super Heavy booster and the ship, and put the odds of a successful ship catch at “more likely than not.” SpaceX also aired an animation of the maneuver during that webcast, showing the ship swinging vertical over Starbase before dropping into the tower’s chopsticks.

The hardware is ready. Booster 22 fired all 33 of its Raptor engines for a full duration static fire at Pad 2 on October 25. Ship 42 followed with a single engine burn simulating a deorbit maneuver on October 26 and a 60 second firing of all six engines the next day, according to NASASpaceflight. Ship 42 had already rehearsed the catch in September, when the Pad 2 arms lifted it into position and crews connected the quick disconnect arm while the vehicle hung from the tower.

The remaining hurdle is regulatory. The FAA’s Starship page does not yet list a Flight 15 license. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said in October that, after “significant constructive engagement with the FAA,” she expects the license to cover a return to the launch site and a tower catch for both stages. Bringing the ship home means a reentry path that heads toward land, rather than ending over open ocean as every Starship flight so far has.

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SpaceX has caught Super Heavy three times, on Flights 5, 7 and 8, but the ship comes back from orbital velocity and has never been caught. Flight 14 on September 28 was the first Starship to reach orbit, deploying 26 Starlink V3 satellites before splashing down despite an early engine shutdown that Musk blamed on engine computer software.

Musk has called a successful ship catch “the first time that there’s been full recovery of an orbital class rocket,” and he has already named the step after it: a Flight 16 where both the booster and the ship fly again. NASASpaceflight reports that Ship 43, the next vehicle in line, is set for static fire testing in December.

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