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SpaceX launches 3000th Starlink satellite
SpaceX has successfully launched its 3000th Starlink satellite as part of Falcon 9’s 54th dedicated mission for the low Earth orbit (LEO) internet constellation.
After high upper-level winds forced SpaceX to call off a launch attempt three hours prior, Falcon 9 lifted off from NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Launch Complex 39A at 10:14 pm EDT (02:14 UTC), carrying another 52 new Starlink V1.5 satellites inside the rocket’s flight-proven payload fairing. Like the fairing halves, both of which had already supported two orbital-class launches, the Falcon 9 booster (B1073) SpaceX assigned to the mission was also flying for the third time.
For the most part, Falcon 9 performed nominally. The booster lifted an expendable upper stage and the enclosed payload most of the way out of Earth’s atmosphere before separating and heading back to Earth. Falcon 9’s upper stage was as perfect as ever, boosting the Starlink stack the rest of the way into a low and elliptical parking orbit, where it eventually spun itself end over end and deployed all 52 satellites at once.
Falcon 9 booster B1073 made it through its reentry and landing burns without issue and safely touched down on drone ship A Shortfall Of Gravitas (ASOG) about nine minutes after liftoff. While that landing was ultimately a success, B1073’s accuracy was not exactly flawless and the booster came to a halt with two of its four legs unusually close to the edge of the drone ship’s deck. Had the booster missed the bullseye by just 5-10 more feet, it could have easily landed with one or two feet off the deck and tipped into the Atlantic.
Nonetheless, the landing was successful and SpaceX should have no issue recovering the booster. In any other context, it would barely be worth noting, but flawless Starlink launches with near-bullseye landings have become such a frequent and routine occurrence that any departure from that norm has become interesting.
Starlink 4-26 (referring to the 26th batch of Group or Shell 4 satellites) was SpaceX’s 54th dedicated Starlink launch overall and 21st Starlink launch in 2022 alone. The mission also carried SpaceX’s 3000th Starlink satellite into orbit, a milestone so far removed from the next largest satellite constellation that it’s now more reasonable to compare Starlink to every other satellite currently in orbit. Of the 3009 Starlink satellites SpaceX has now successfully launched since 2018, 2750 are still in orbit. Assuming all 52 Starlink 4-26 satellites are healthy, astrophysicist and space object tracker Jonathan McDowell estimates that SpaceX has 2714 working satellites in orbit.
Excluding 75 prototype satellites launched over the years, all but 5 of which have since deorbited, 92.3% of all operational Starlink satellites launched by SpaceX since November 2019 are still working in orbit. While Starlink V1.0’s 7.7% satellite failure rate is far from desirable, SpaceX has made clear progress with its V1.5 design, which began launching in September 2021. Excluding 38 satellites that were lost when a solar storm caused Earth’s atmosphere to expand, unexpectedly increasing drag to uncontrollable levels, only 10 of the 1218 Starlink V1.5 satellites SpaceX has launched have failed and prematurely reentered for technical reasons – a failure rate of 0.9%.
If SpaceX’s V1.5 satellites continue to demonstrate excellent reliability as they reach ages similar to their V1.0 predecessors, it will bode well for the sustainability and predictability of current and future Starlink constellations. Meanwhile, the roughly 2270 Starlink satellites that are currently operational continue to deliver internet services to hundreds of thousands of customers in countries around the world, improving the lives of countless people.
According to Next Spaceflight, SpaceX has up to five more Starlink launches scheduled this month as it continues to relentlessly pursue a record-breaking launch cadence with its Falcon 9 rocket. Up next, Starlink 3-3 could launch from California as early as August 12th. Photographer Ben Cooper reports that another East Coast Starlink mission is working towards a “mid-August” launch soon after.
Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
“And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface,” Musk said.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk dropped a massive bomb about the Cybercab, which is the company’s fully autonomous ride-hailing vehicle that will enter production later this year.
The Cybercab was unveiled back in October 2024 at the company’s “We, Robot” event in Los Angeles, and is among the major catalysts for the company’s growth in the coming years. It is expected to push Tesla into a major growth phase, especially as the automaker is transitioning into more of an AI and Robotics company than anything else.
The Cybercab will enable completely autonomous ride-hailing for Tesla, and although its other vehicles will also be capable of this technology, the Cybercab is slightly different. It will have no steering wheel or pedals, and will allow two occupants to travel from Point A to Point B with zero responsibilities within the car.
Tesla shares epic 2025 recap video, confirms start of Cybercab production
Details on the Cybercab are pretty face value at this point: we know Tesla is enabling 1-2 passengers to ride in it at a time, and this strategy was based on statistics that show most ride-hailing trips have no more than two occupants. It will also have in-vehicle entertainment options accessible from the center touchscreen.
It will also have wireless charging capabilities, which were displayed at “We, Robot,” and there could be more features that will be highly beneficial to riders, offering a full-fledged autonomous experience.
Musk dropped a big hint that there is much more to the Cybercab than what we know, as a post on X said that “there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface.”
And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 2, 2026
As the Cybercab is expected to enter production later this year, Tesla is surely going to include a handful of things they have not yet revealed to the public.
Musk seems to be indicating that some of the features will make it even more groundbreaking, and the idea is to enable a truly autonomous experience from start to finish for riders. Everything from climate control to emergency systems, and more, should be included with the car.
It seems more likely than not that Tesla will make the Cybercab its smartest vehicle so far, as if its current lineup is not already extremely intelligent, user-friendly, and intuitive.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.
Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”
Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.
🚨 Wedbush’s Dan Ives has released a new note on Tesla $TSLA:
“Tesla announced its FY4Q25 delivery numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k vehicles slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k as the…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026
In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.
However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.
While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.
Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
