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SpaceX’s NASA astronaut launch debut jumps its place in line, now up next
According to NASASpaceflight.com reporter Michael Baylor, SpaceX’s Starlink-7 satellite launch has been indefinitely delayed due to drone ship constraints, meaning that the company’s Crew Dragon astronaut launch is now up next.
As a result, SpaceX’s next orbital launch has been delayed by at least eight days. In return, however, that launch will arguably be the most important in the company’s 18-year history, (hopefully) marking the biggest step by far SpaceX has taken towards its main goals of democratizing spaceflight and enabling the sustainable, permanent settlement of Mars. Known as Demonstration Mission 2 (Demo-2), it will simultaneously be the first crewed launch under NASA’s Commercial Crew Program (CCP) and SpaceX’s first astronaut launch ever and is scheduled to lift off no earlier than (NET) 4:33 pm EDT (20:33 UTC), May 27th.
Formerly scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) May 7th, 17th, 18th, and 19th after a number of technical and weather-related delays, SpaceX’s 8th 60-satellite Starlink launch has now been delayed until sometime after Crew Dragon’s late-May inaugural astronaut launch. According to NASASpaceflight and speculated about in-depth on unofficial forums in the days prior, the schedule swap decision was made due to constraints in SpaceX’s drone ship. While simple on the face of things, the change does reveal a bit of the hidden strategy behind SpaceX’s management of both its rocket fleet and the ships that recover them.
Compounded by multiple largely unrelated delays, including weather in the planned booster and fairing landing zones, the Starlink-7/Demo-2 launch swap was caused by the simple fact that SpaceX only has one operational drone ship on the East Coast. The company coincidentally began sea trials with a second drone ship the very same day that Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) headed out to sea to catch Starlink-7’s Falcon 9 booster. However, that second ship has been extensively upgraded and will likely take several weeks of sea trials before it can be declared ready for its first East Coast rocket recovery attempt.
For each drone ship booster landing, it takes at least a week for the ship to be towed several hundred miles downrange to the recovery zone and at least as long to return to port. Add in the time required to safe and secure a landed Falcon 9 or Heavy booster, navigate sea states to prevent damage to – or the outright loss of – that booster, and the work needed to safely lift it off the drone ship’s deck onto dry land and it can easily be 9-10 days before a drone ship is ready for another landing.
At the same time, SpaceX’s turnaround record is about eight days between booster landings. Had SpaceX persevered and attempted to launch Starlink-7 on May 19th and Crew Dragon’s inaugural astronaut launch on May 27th, it’s possible that things would have worked out, with both booster landings occurring on schedule on the same drone ship. However, given just how much of a priority Crew Dragon Demo-2 is compared to an internal Starlink launch and a tropical storm threatening to delay Starlink-7’s launch and landing even further, SpaceX clearly decided that it just wasn’t worth the risk.
Given the extraordinary importance of Demo-2, set to be the first time the United States has launched its own astronauts into orbit in almost nine years, it’s not exactly surprising that SpaceX has chosen conservatism this time around and prioritized its inaugural NASA astronaut launch. According to Spaceflight Now, the Crew Dragon capsule assigned to SpaceX’s inaugural NASA astronaut launch – pictured above – actually joined the new Falcon 9 rocket that will launch it at Pad 39A on May 15th. Now fully fueled with liquid hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide, the spacecraft could be mated with Falcon 9’s upper stage at any moment (if it hasn’t been already).
Once fully assembled, Falcon 9 booster B1058, a new Falcon 9 upper stage, Crew Dragon capsule C206, and an expendable trunk section will be rolled horizontally out to Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Pad 39A to perform a crucial pre-launch static fire test. Rollout and static fire operations could begin at any point within the next few days. It remains to be seen whether drone ship OCISLY will remain in the Atlantic Ocean or head back to Port Canaveral before departing again to catch booster B1058.
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Another Tesla Model 3 variant sold out for January 2026 in China
A look at Tesla China’s order page shows that new Model 3 LR RWD orders now have an estimated delivery date of February 2026.
Another Tesla Model 3 variant in China appears to have sold out for January 2026, with the vehicle now showing an estimated delivery date of February 2026 for new orders. This bodes well for the all-electric sedan, which has maintained notable sales despite more affordable rivals like the Xiaomi SU7 and its crossover sibling, the Model Y.
Model 3 LR RWD joins February 2026 queue
A look at Tesla China’s order page for the all-electric sedan shows that new Model 3 Long Range Rear Wheel Drive orders now have an estimated delivery date of February 2026. Priced from RMB 259,500 ($36,810), the LR RWD sits as the second-lowest-priced trim in Tesla China’s four-variant Model 3 lineup. The move follows a similar delivery timeframe for the Model 3 Performance, which remains the most expensive option for the vehicle, as noted in a CNEV Post report.
The estimated delivery dates of the two remaining Model 3 variants remain unchanged for now. The base RWD version, starting at RMB 235,500, and the LR AWD variant, priced from RMB 285,500, both continue to list estimated delivery times of 4-6 weeks. Tesla China, for its part, has continued to list in-stock Model 3 vehicles and is actively encouraging buyers to select inventory units for delivery before the end of the year.
Model Y delays and policy shifts
Delivery timelines for the Model Y in China are also stretching into 2026. All customized Model Y variants now show February 2026 as their estimated delivery date, except for the entry-level version, which still lists January 2026. Tesla has been urging customers since November to prioritize purchasing inventory vehicles, a push aimed at maximizing year-end deliveries.
Timing matters for Chinese buyers due to upcoming changes in government incentives. China’s new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption will be scaled back in 2026, which means customers who take delivery next year could face higher tax costs compared to those who are able to receive vehicles before the end of the year.
As per data from the China Passenger Car Association, Tesla recorded retail sales of 73,145 vehicles in November, down 0.47% year over year. From January through November, Tesla’s retail sales in China totaled 531,855 units, a 7.37% year-over-year drop.
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Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is doubling down on Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) long-term upside. In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario, thanks to the company’s efforts to develop and push its artificial intelligence programs.
An aggressive valuation upside
Ives, Wedbush’s global head of tech research, stated in his post that Tesla is entering a pivotal period as its autonomy and robotics ambitions move closer to commercialization. He expects Tesla’s market cap to reach $2 trillion in 2026, representing roughly 33% upside from current levels, with a bull case up to a $3 trillion market cap by year-end.
Overall, Ives noted that 2026 could become a “monster year” for TSLA. “Heading into 2026, this marks a monster year ahead for Tesla/Musk as the autonomous and robotics chapter begins. We believe Tesla hits a $2 trillion market cap in 2026 and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by end of 2026… as the AI chapter takes hold at TSLA,” the analyst wrote.
Ives also reiterated his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock, as well as his $600 per share price target.
Unsupervised Full-Self Driving tests
Fueling optimism is Tesla’s recent autonomous vehicle testing in Austin, Texas. Over the weekend, at least two Tesla Model Ys were spotted driving on public roads without a safety monitor or any other occupants. CEO Elon Musk later confirmed the footage of one of the vehicles on X, writing in a post that “testing is underway with no occupant in the car.”
It remains unclear whether the vehicle was supported by chase cars or remote monitoring, and Tesla has not disclosed how many vehicles are involved. That being said, Elon Musk stated a week ago that Tesla would be removing its Safety Monitors from its vehicles “within the next three weeks.” Based on the driverless vehicles’ sightings so far, it appears that Musk’s estimate may be right on the mark, at least for now.
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Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
Tesla has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements.
Tesla has showcased what appears to be a near-production-ready Cybercab at its Santana Row showroom in San Jose, California, giving visitors the closest look yet at the autonomous two-seater’s refined design.
Based on photos of the near-production-ready vehicle, the electric vehicle maker has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements, making the vehicle look more polished and seemingly more comfortable than its prototypes from last year.
Exterior and interior refinements
The updated Cybercab, whose photos were initially shared by Tesla advocate Nic Cruz Patane, now features a new frameless window design, an extended bottom splitter on the front bumper, and a slightly updated rear hatch. It also includes a production-spec front lightbar with integrated headlights, new wheel covers, and a license plate bracket.
Notably, the vehicle now has two windshield wipers instead of the prototype’s single unit, along with powered door struts, seemingly for smoother opening of its butterfly doors. Inside, the Cybercab now sports what appears to be a redesigned dash and door panels, updated carpet material, and slightly refined seat cushions with new center cupholders. Its legroom seems to have gotten slightly larger as well.
Cybercab sightings
Sightings of the updated Cybercab have been abundant in recent months. At the end of October, the Tesla AI team teased some of the autonomous two-seater’s updates after it showed a photo of the vehicle being driven through an In-N-Out drive-through by employees in Halloween costumes. The photos of the Cybercab were fun, but they were significant, with longtime Tesla watchers noting that the company has a tradition of driving its prototypes through the fast food chain’s drive-throughs.
Even at the time, Tesla enthusiasts noticed that the Cybercab had received some design changes, such as segmented DRLs and headlamps, actual turn signals, and a splitter that’s a lot sharper. Larger door openings, which now seem to have been teasing the vehicle’s updated cabin, were also observed at the time.
Another Tesla Model 3 variant sold out for January 2026 in China
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
