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SpaceX, NASA finalize contract for second crewed Starship Moon landing
Around eight months after announcing its intention to do so, NASA has awarded SpaceX a contract for a second crewed Starship Moon landing as early as 2027.
Known as Option B, NASA has exercised a baked-in right to modify its Human Landing System (HLS) Option A contract with SpaceX – signed in April 2021 – to extract even more value from investments into the program. In addition to an uncrewed Starship Moon landing planned no earlier than (NET) 2024 and a crewed demonstration that could land two NASA astronauts on the Moon as early as 2025, NASA’s contract modification gives SpaceX the approval and resources it needs to prepare for a second crewed Starship Moon landing.
On top of securing NASA’s Artemis IV mission astronauts a ride to the lunar surface, the Option B contract will also allow SpaceX and NASA to pursue and demonstrate upgrades that will make Starship an even more capable and cost-effective Moon lander.
Update: NASA says that the Option B modification will cost $1.15 billion, raising the maximum value of SpaceX’s HLS contract to approximately $4.2 billion.
When NASA first announced its intention to add a second crewed Moon landing to SpaceX’s existing HLS contract, the agency couldn’t offer specific information about when that landing might occur or which Artemis mission it would be attached to. Part of the reason for that uncertainty was another announcement two months prior that NASA no longer expected a Moon landing to be paired with its Artemis IV (4) mission. And five days after a March 2022 announcement of plans for a second crewed Starship Moon landing, NASA seemingly reaffirmed that there would be a multi-year gap between Starship’s first crewed Moon landing (NET 2025; tied to Artemis III) and NASA’s second crewed Moon landing, which would use an unspecified lander.
But as of November 2022, NASA has thankfully abandoned plans to intentionally allow a gap between Moon landings. SpaceX’s Starship is now on contract to support back-to-back crewed Moon landings NET 2025 and 2027 as part of NASA’s Artemis III and Artemis IV missions. It’s unclear how or why NASA was able to make that change, but it’s a definite improvement over the alternative.
Additionally, NASA will work with SpaceX to debut new capabilities and improvements on Starship’s second crewed Moon landing. While the Artemis III landing will be about as barebones as possible, the Artemis IV Starship will be upgraded with the ability to transport more NASA astronauts (four instead of just two) and more cargo to the lunar surface. It’s not entirely clear, but NASA reportedly wants to land just ~180 kilograms (~400 lb) of cargo with the first crewed Starship, a vehicle likely capable of landing dozens of tons of cargo in addition to several astronauts. NASA hopes that future “sustainable” lander missions, a category that Starship’s Option B landing may or may not fall under, will transport up to one ton (~2200 lb) of cargo to and from the lunar surface.
Finally, the Artemis IV Starship will also be able to dock with NASA’s Lunar Gateway. Gateway is a small deep space station that will be located in a strange, high lunar orbit. It exists almost exclusively to give NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and Orion crew capsule a destination they can both reach. The Orion capsule is almost twice as heavy as its Apollo counterpart and its European Service Module (ESM) offers less than half the performance of NASA’s retired Apollo Service Module. Combined, Orion is physically incapable of transporting itself (or astronauts) to the simpler low lunar orbits used by the Apollo Program.
Instead, NASA’s new Moon lander(s) have to pick up Orion’s slack. Starship will be responsible for picking up astronauts in a lunar near-rectilinear halo orbit (NRHO), transporting them to low lunar orbit, and returning them to NRHO in addition to landing on the Moon, spending a week on the surface, and launching back into lunar orbit.
Until it’s modestly upgraded in the late 2020s or 2030s, Gateway will be equally underwhelming. In fact, that’s part of the reason that Starship docking with the Gateway is in any way significant. SpaceX and NASA have decades of expertise docking and berthing spacecraft with space stations. But those spacecraft are typically smaller and lighter than the stations they were joining. Even after the Gateway is fully outfitted with a range of international modules, Starship will likely weigh several times more than the tiny station, making docking even more challenging than it already is.
Starship’s Moon lander variant could also have a cabin with hundreds of cubic meters of habitable space, while the Gateway is unlikely to ever have more than a few dozen. Having a Starship docked would thus immediately make the ultra-cramped station far more livable.
NASA says Artemis IV and the second crew Starship Moon landing will occur as early as 2027. But a ‘space prophet’ who predicted in 2017 that NASA’s SLS launch debut would slip from 2019 to “around 2023” and forecasted that SpaceX alone would win NASA’s Moon lander contract recently told Ars Technica’s Eric Berger that Artemis III, the mission before Artemis IV, is unlikely to launch before 2028. At the time, that source’s predictions verged on blasphemy, but they’ve ultimately proven to be eerily accurate. Only time will tell if their third ‘prophecy’ follows the same path.
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Tesla officially publishes Q4 2025 vehicle delivery consensus
By releasing these numbers directly, Tesla establishes a clear, transparent benchmark ahead of its actual results.
Tesla has taken the rather unusual step of officially publishing its company-compiled Q4 2025 delivery consensus on the Investor Relations site. As per analyst estimates, Tesla is expected to deliver 422,850 vehicles and deploy 13.4 GWh of battery storage systems this Q4 2025.
By releasing these numbers directly, Tesla establishes a clear, transparent benchmark ahead of its actual results, making it harder for narratives to claim a “miss” based on outlier estimates.
Official consensus sets the record straight
Tesla’s IR press release detailed the consensus from 20 analysts for vehicle deliveries and 16 analysts for energy deployments. As per the release, full-year 2025 consensus delivery estimates come in at 1,640,752 vehicles, an 8.3% decline from 2025’s FY deliveries of 1,789,226 cars.
Tesla noted that while it “does not endorse any information, recommendations or conclusions made by the analysts,” its press release does provide a notable reference point. Analysts contributing to the company compiled consensus include Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Oppenheimer, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, Goldman Sachs, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Jefferies, Needham, HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair.
Tesla’s busy Q4 2025
Tesla seems to be pushing hard to deliver as many vehicles as possible before the end of 2025, despite the company’s future seemingly being determined not by vehicle deliveries, but FSD and Optimus’ rollout and ramp. Still, reports from countries such as China are optimistic, with posts on social media hinting that Tesla’s delivery centers in the country are appearing packed as the final weeks of 2025 unfold.
The Tesla Model Y and Model 3 are also still performing well in China’s premium EV segment. Based on data from January to November, the Model Y took China’s number one spot in the RMB 200,000-RMB 300,000 segment for electric vehicles, selling 359,463 units. The Model 3 sedan took third place, selling 172,392. This is quite impressive considering that both the Model Y and Model 3 command a premium compared to their domestic rivals.
Elon Musk
Tesla’s Elon Musk accepts invitation to Israel’s Smart Transportation Conference
The announcement was shared by the Israeli Prime Minister in a post on social media platform X.
Elon Musk has reportedly accepted an invitation from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to participate in the country’s Smart Transportation Conference in March 2026.
The announcement was shared by the Israeli Prime Minister in a post on social media platform X.
A call and an invitation
Netanyahu posted on X about Musk, stating in Hebrew: “Last night, I held a joint conference call from Florida with entrepreneur Elon Musk, Minister of Transportation Miri Regev, and the head of the National AI Headquarters, Erez Askal. In the framework of the conversation, Musk responded to my invitation and Minister Regev’s invitation to participate in the Smart Transportation Conference that will be held in March.”
Netanyahu added that he and Musk discussed continuing initiatives such as the promotion of autonomous vehicle laws and the boosting of AI technologies in Israel. This, according to the Prime Minister, is aimed at making the country a global leader in emerging technologies.
“Additionally, we discussed the continuation of collaborations with Tesla and the promotion of the law pertaining to autonomous vehicles. I spoke at length with Musk about promoting and developing artificial intelligence technologies in Israel, and I said in our conversation: We intend to catapult Israel and turn it into a global leader in the field, just as we did in cyber and other technologies,” Netanyahu added.
Tesla FSD’s upcoming rollout in Israel
Elon Musk’s upcoming conference appearance in Israel could hint at Tesla’s upcoming rollout of FSD and its Robotaxi service in the country. Previous reports have hinted that FSD is nearing regulatory approval in Israel, following strong advocacy from local owners and direct intervention from the government.
Nearly 1,000 Tesla drivers petitioned authorities, highlighting FSD’s potential to enhance road safety. Transport and Road Safety Minister Miri Regev responded positively on X, writing “I’ve received the many referrals from Tesla drivers in Israel! Tesla drivers? Soon you won’t need to hold the steering wheel.”
Minister Regev has instructed the ministry’s Director-General to accelerate the approval process, including necessary tests. A dedicated working group, led by Moshe Ben-Zaken, is also coordinating with regulatory and safety agencies to meet international standards.
News
Tesla China delivery centers look packed as 2025 comes to a close
Needless to say, it appears that Tesla China seems intent on ending 2025 on a strong note.
Tesla’s delivery centers in China seem to be absolutely packed as the final days of 2025 wind down, with photos on social media showing delivery locations being filled wall-to-wall with vehicles waiting for their new owners.
Needless to say, it appears that Tesla China seems intent on ending 2025 on a strong note.
Full delivery center hints at year-end demand surge
A recent image from a Chinese delivery center posted by industry watcher @Tslachan on X revealed rows upon rows of freshly prepared Model Y and Model 3 units, some of which were adorned with red bows and teddy bears. Some customers also seem to be looking over their vehicles with Tesla delivery staff.
The images hint at a strong year-end push to clear inventory and deliver as many vehicles as possible. Interestingly enough, several Model Y L vehicles could be seen in the photos, hinting at the demand for the extended wheelbase-six seat variant of the best-selling all-electric crossover.
Strong demand in China
Consumer demand for the Model Y and Model 3 in China seems to be quite notable. This could be inferred from the estimated delivery dates for the Model 3 and Model Y, which have been extended to February 2026 for several variants. Apart from this, the Model Y and Model 3 also continue to rank well in China’s premium EV segment.
From January to November alone, the Model Y took China’s number one spot in the RMB 200,000-RMB 300,000 segment for electric vehicles, selling 359,463 units. The Model 3 sedan took third place, selling 172,392. This is quite impressive considering that both the Model Y and Model 3 are still priced at a premium compared to some of their rivals, such as the Xiaomi SU7 and YU7.
With delivery centers in December being quite busy, it does seem like Tesla China will end the year on a strong note once more.
Tesla officially publishes Q4 2025 vehicle delivery consensus
Tesla’s Elon Musk accepts invitation to Israel’s Smart Transportation Conference
