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SpaceX, NASA celebrate Blue Origin’s lunar lander lawsuit loss and get back to work
In a November 9th press conference, NASA leaders have begun to publicly celebrate the end of seven months of Blue Origin litigation and disruption to its Human Landing System (HLS). A federal court’s dismissal of that lawsuit means that the space agency can finally get back to work with SpaceX on its Starship Moon lander.
Following the failure of that lawsuit, NASA administrator Bill Nelson says that it will take the space agency some time to fully determine what and how much damage Blue Origin has caused. In the briefing, Nelson and associate administrators Kathy Lueders and Jim Free confirmed that Dynetics’ protest and Blue Origin’s protest and lawsuit have delayed SpaceX’s first crewed Starship Moon landing to no earlier than (NET) 2025.
Painfully, though, the briefing primarily focused on NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and Orion spacecraft and the latest news about the system and the space agency’s attitude towards it are not encouraging.
Namely, exemplifying just how broken and deceptive NASA’s cost “transparency” is when it comes to SLS and Orion, the space agency used the briefing to announce its first updated Orion cost projections in more than half a decade. All the way back in September 2015, NASA announced major Orion delays and revealed that it had already spent $4.7B on the spacecraft and was committing another $6.7B through its first crewed launch – then scheduled no earlier than 2023.
That’s likely where NASA is getting its magically diminished Orion cost estimate. In reality, including Bush-era Constellation Program development that began in 2006, Orion will have cost NASA and the US taxpayer almost $22 billion by the end of 2021 and before a single full-up launch. Effectively doing the bare minimum to acknowledge a sanitized version of reality, NASA now says that Orion will cost at least $9.3 billion to its first crewed launch, which has been delayed to NET May 2024. It’s entirely unclear how NASA is calculating that deflated figure but in the six years since the space agency’s 2015 announcement that it would spend another $6.7B before Orion’s first crewed launch, it’s actually spent at least $8.4B and will have blown past the latest $9.3B target by mid-2022. Barring drastic funding cuts, Orion development will actually cost the US about $12.6B from 2016 to Artemis II and ~$25.8B since 2006 (not including inflation).
In an even starker demonstration of cognitive dissonance, when a New York Times reporter asked a hard question about the possibility of sidestepping Orion and SLS to get astronauts onto SpaceX’s Starship lunar lander, Administrator Nelson – having just repeatedly discussed Starship – fell back on an old boilerplate statement that “there’s only one rocket capable of doing this” – “this” being launching humans to the Moon and returning them to Earth and that “one rocket” being SLS. Association admin Jim Free also exhibited similar confusion, stating that “the architecture…just wouldn’t work.”
In reality, as currently contracted with NASA, SpaceX’s Starship Moon lander is a highly capable crewed spacecraft that will be refueled in Earth orbit before propelling itself to lunar orbit, where an SLS-launched Orion spacecraft would join it and transfer over three astronauts. Starship would then use its own propulsion to change orbits, land on the Moon, and eventually boost back into lunar orbit to transfer that crew back to Orion for the return to Earth. Nothing short of sheer ignorance – willful or not – could prevent competent spaceflight engineers or managers from understanding the possibilities such an architecture raises.
If NASA is already committed to human-rating Starship’s propulsion systems, which it is, it doesn’t take a grand leap of imagination to consider the possibility of adding a few more burns to Starship’s extremely complex concept of operations. If, for example, Starship has enough performance to return to Earth orbit from the lunar surface, it’s not hard to imagine NASA’s Artemis astronauts boarding Starship in Earth orbit after a far cheaper commercial launch and then returning to Earth orbit to debark Starship and return to that crew-rated reentry vehicle. As it turns out, NASA already has a highly successful crew-rated commercial rocket and spacecraft that’s already operational and likely more than 10 times cheaper than SLS/Orion.
While there are obvious challenges and uncertainties with such an option, the point is more that failing to even acknowledge the possibility of alternatives is a brutal appraisal of several of NASA’s most senior leaders and confirms that the politics of a jobs program like SLS/Orion is actively disrupting their ability to engage with reality and properly manage complex, risky programs.
Ultimately, it’s great news that SpaceX and NASA can finally get back to work on their Starship Moon lander plans. However, it’s also clearer than ever that SLS and Orion will remain a noose precariously balanced around the agency’s neck, forever threatening the Artemis Program and stifling NASA’s ability to seriously plan for – let alone publicly entertain or even acknowledge – contingencies or fresh ideas.
Investor's Corner
Tesla investor Calpers opposes Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award
Musk’s 2025 pay plan will be decided at Tesla’s 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, which will be held on November 6 in Giga Texas.
One of the United States’ largest pension funds, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (Calpers), has stated that it will be voting against Elon Musk’s 2025 Tesla CEO performance award.
Musk’s 2025 pay plan will be decided at Tesla’s 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, which will be held on November 6 in Giga Texas. Company executives have stated that the upcoming vote will decide Tesla’s fate in the years to come.
Why Calpers opposes Musk’s 2025 performance award
In a statement shared with Bloomberg News, a Calpers spokesperson criticized the scale of Musk’s proposed deal. Calpers currently holds about 5 million Tesla shares, giving its stance meaningful influence among institutional investors.
“The CEO pay package proposed by Tesla is larger than pay packages for CEOs in comparable companies by many orders of magnitude. It would also further concentrate power in a single shareholder,” the spokesperson stated.
This is not the first time Calpers has opposed a major Musk pay deal. The fund previously voted against a $56 billion package proposed for Musk and criticized the CEO’s 2018 performance-based plan, which was perceived as unrealistic due to its ambitious nature at the time. Musk’s 2018 pay plan was later struck down by a Delaware court, though Tesla is currently appealing the decision.
Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award
While Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award will result in him becoming a trillionaire, he would not be able to receive any compensation from Tesla unless aggressive operational and financial targets are met. For Musk to receive his full compensation, for example, he would have to grow Tesla’s market cap from today’s $1.1 trillion to $8.5 trillion, effectively making it the world’s most valuable company by a mile.
Musk has also maintained that his 2025 performance award is not about compensation. It’s about his controlling stake at Tesla. “If I can just get kicked out in the future by activist shareholder advisory firms who don’t even own Tesla shares themselves, I’m not comfortable with that future,” Musk wrote in a post on X.
News
Tesla Cybercab is heading to China’s import expo
The event will take place from November 5–10 at Shanghai’s National Exhibition and Convention Center.
Tesla will make its return to the China International Import Expo (CIIE) this November, marking its first appearance at the event since 2022. The U.S. electric vehicle maker confirmed it will showcase its highly anticipated Cybercab, which will make its Asia-Pacific debut during the event.
The expo will take place from November 5–10 at Shanghai’s National Exhibition and Convention Center.
Tesla Cybercab in China
Tesla announced its participation in the event on its official Weibo account. As per the electric vehicle maker, it would be occupying Booth A3-03 in Hall 2.1 at the National Exhibition and Convention Center. As noted in a CNEV Post report, the Cybercab, the company’s dedicated autonomous two-seater Robotaxi, will be making its Asia-Pacific debut at the CIIE as well.
The company shared a graphic on Chinese social media which showed an image featuring several Tesla products, such as the Cybercab, Optimus, and Megapack batteries. The graphic also featured a building that read “Master Plan Part IV.”
Tesla’s momentum in China
Tesla’s return comes after skipping the event last year. Interestingly enough, Tesla attended the event from 2018 all the way to 2023. Tesla’s return to the CIIE then aligns with the company’s efforts to attract consumer interest in the world’s most competitive electric vehicle market.
The Cybercab’s presence in the event could suggest that Tesla might be interested in bringing its Robotaxi to the country. This is quite interesting as China is already home to several autonomous ride-hailing services, though Tesla’s pure vision approach, which focuses on artificial intelligence and cameras, is quite unique. So far, Tesla has only rolled out its autonomous ride-hailing services in Austin, Texas, and the Bay Area, California.
News
Tesla Semi factory looks nearly complete
Based on recent images taken of the facility, it appears that the Semi’s initial production might be right on schedule.
The Tesla Semi factory looks like it is nearing completion. Based on recent images taken of the facility, it appears that the Semi’s initial production might be right on schedule.
This was, at least, as per recent observations from a veteran Tesla watcher who has long been chronicling the progress of the facility.
Tesla Semi factory today
As per longtime Tesla Semi advocate @HinrichsZane, the Class 8 all-electric truck’s factory in Nevada looks almost completed. The facility’s exterior looks finished, which suggests that much of the work being done today is likely focused on the factory’s interior and equipment.
This was highlighted in recent photos taken by the drone operator, which show that the facility’s parking lots are now filled with vehicles. A photo taken before dawn also highlighted just how refined the factory has become over the past months. Needless to say, it appears that the factory is all but ready to start the initial production of the Tesla Semi.
Deliveries and targets
Tesla has stated that the Semi factory will start producing the Class 8 all-electric truck by 2026. This was stressed by Elon Musk in a previous comment on X, when he stated that “Tesla Semi will be in volume production next year.” Once ramped, the facility will be capable of producing about 50,000 Tesla Semi units annually. This should help the Semi disrupt and potentially saturate the United States’ transport sector.
Progress in the Tesla Semi factory has been notable in the past months. Just a few months ago, drone footage of the site revealed that Tesla was shipping extremely large production equipment into the facility. These included what appeared to be a gigantic stamping machine that was so large and heavy that it was shipped to the Semi factory using two diesel trucks and a triple trailer.
Tesla investor Calpers opposes Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award
Tesla Cybercab is heading to China’s import expo
Tesla Semi factory looks nearly complete
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