News
SpaceX eyes major drone ship fleet upgrades and a new rocket recovery robot
SpaceX has kicked off a series of major upgrades planned for its East Coast fleet of drone ships, centered around Just Read The Instructions (JRTI) and most recently culminating in the apparent fabrication of a second tank-like rocket recovery robot.
Back in Q4 2019, West Coast drone ship JRTI officially departed the Port of Los Angeles berth it operated out of for 3+ years — traversing the Panama Canal, making a weeks-long pit-stop in a Louisiana port, and ultimately arriving at Port Canaveral on December 11th. The modified barge spent more than a month relatively untouched – as was the somewhat mysterious cargo it had brought with it from the Gulf Coast – before SpaceX began JRTI’s long-awaited upgrades around a month ago.
For almost half a year, it’s looked like that SpaceX would move its West Coast drone ship to Florida after the company’s Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) pad entered a major lull in launch activities in early 2019. Aside from one launch in June 2019, SpaceX’s West Coast pad has remained unused and that isn’t expected to change anytime soon. With Cape Canaveral potential reopening its dormant polar launch corridor just weeks from now, it’s entirely possible that SpaceX will be able to perform all of its planned launches from Florida alone for at least the next 6-12 months. Targeting more than 30 East Coast launches in 2020 alone, SpaceX could also benefit from at least one additional drone ship to continue high-volume Falcon booster recoveries without ship availability becoming a major launch constraint. Thankfully, JRTI may be the perfect solution.
Informally known as ‘Octagrabber’, a reference to the robot’s primary function, SpaceX has been using the only operational instance of the vehicle on drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) for more than two years, beginning in 2017. While far from autonomous, Octagrabber helps SpaceX’s maritime rocket recovery team minimize the risks workers are subjected to and gives the company a bit more flexibility to attempt Falcon booster landings in less-than-pristine ocean weather.
While Falcon boosters are relatively stable once landed, thanks to the vast majority of their empty mass being concentrated around their nine Merlin 1D engines, even moderate waves can cause them to slip and slide around the drone ship deck.
In fact, the best operational demonstration of the value of Octagrabber-style recovery robots came after SpaceX’s historic Falcon Heavy triple-booster recovery in April 2019 – the first time all three of the rocket’s first stage boosters successfully landed after liftoff. As it turns out, thanks to moderate hardware differences between Falcon Heavy center core boosters and normal Falcon 9 boosters, OCISLY’s Octagrabber robot did not have the attachment mechanisms needed to ‘grab’ the center core (B1055, in this case). In theory, this could be a non-issue but the drone ship unfortunately ran into high seas, making its deck to pitch and tilt and ultimately causing to B1055 to tip over, breaking in half and effectively destroyed the booster.
With Octagrabber robots, drone ships should almost never lose recovered boosters because of high seas (within reason). As such, it should come as no surprise at all that SpaceX is building a new recovery robot for drone ship JRTI – the newest addition to its Florida fleet.
Aside from the discovery of a second Octagrabber being built at SpaceX’s former East Coast Starship factory, the nature of other upgrades planned for drone ship JRTI are more mysterious. For several months, the rocket landing platform has had almost a dozen massive generators and new thruster pods stored on its deck, seemingly waiting on an unknown impetus for their installation. In recent weeks, visible work to prepare the new hardware for installation has begun.
Notably, the thrusters and power supplies that seem destined for installation on JRTI would make for a dramatic upgrade, potentially giving the drone ship more power than the tug boats that must currently tender and tow them to landing zones. In other words, that’s a complicated way of saying that SpaceX may be trying to make drone ship JRTI almost entirely independent of contracted tugboats, potentially simplifying and lowering the cost of booster recoveries.
While less likely, it’s also possible that SpaceX is finally in a position to fully realize the “autonomous” namesake of its autonomous spaceport drone ships (ASDS), with high-powered thrusters potentially giving JRTI the ability to leave port, cruise to Atlantic Ocean landing zones, deploy an Octagrabber, and return to port with a booster – all without humans in the loop. That capability is likely still on the horizon but powerful thrusters and generators would bring port-to-port drone ship autonomy within SpaceX’s grasp in the near future.
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Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
News
Tesla Model Y L is gaining momentum in China’s premium segment
This suggests that the addition of the Model Y L to Tesla China’s lineup will not result in a case of cannibalization, but a possible case of “premiumization” instead.
Tesla’s domestic sales in China held steady in November with around 73,000 units delivered, but a closer look at the Model Y L’s numbers hints at an emerging shift towards pricier variants that could very well be boosting average selling prices and margins.
This suggests that the addition of the Model Y L to Tesla China’s lineup will not result in a case of cannibalization, but a possible case of “premiumization” instead.
Tesla China’s November domestic numbers
Data from the a Passenger Car Association (CPCA) indicated that Tesla China saw domestic deliveries of about 73,000 vehicles in November 2025. This number included 34,000 standard Model Y units, 26,000 Model 3 units, and 13,000 Model Y L units, as per industry watchers.
This means that the Model Y L accounted for roughly 27% of Tesla China’s total Model Y sales, despite the variant carrying a ~28% premium over the base RWD Model Y that is estimated to have dominated last year’s mix.
As per industry watcher @TSLAFanMtl, this suggests that Tesla China’s sales have moved towards more premium variants this year. Thus, direct year-over-year sales comparisons might miss the bigger picture. This is true even for the regular Model Y, as another premium trim, the Long Range RWD variant, was also added to the lineup this 2025.
November 2025 momentum
While Tesla China’s overall sales this year have seen challenges, the Model Y and Model 3 have remained strong sellers in the country. This is especially impressive as the Model Y and Model 3 are premium-priced vehicles, and they compete in the world’s most competitive electric vehicle market. Tesla China is also yet to roll out the latest capabilities of FSD in China, which means that its vehicles in the country could not tap into their latest capabilities yet.
Aggregated results from November suggest that the Tesla Model Y took the crown as China’s #1 best-selling SUV during the month, with roughly 34,000 deliveries. With the Model Y L, this number is even higher. The Tesla Model 3 also had a stellar month, seeing 25,700 deliveries during November 2025.
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
