News
SpaceX’s next Falcon 9 missions likely two back-to-back Starlink satellite launches
Hinted at by a launch photographer and confirmed by an article published on NASASpaceflight.com, it appears that SpaceX’s next Falcon 9 launch is at least a month away and will likely be the company’s first operational Starlink mission, deemed “Starlink 1”.
Barring a surprise mission in the interim, this means that SpaceX is going to have a gap of at least two months between customer launches, something the company has not experienced since mid-2015 – more than four years ago. As such, it’s an extremely happy coincidence that SpaceX may now have internal Starlink launches to fill lulls in its commercial launch manifest.
Like any production and services-focused company, SpaceX incurs operational costs whether or not its services are being used – employees, leases, supplier contracts, and more still need to be paid for, facilities still need upkeep, long-lead production can’t simply pause, and many other recurring costs can’t be avoided. In theory, supplementing commercial launches with internal launches thus limits SpaceX’s downtime and effectively increases overall capital efficiency.
Flatsat revolution
Enter Starlink, a colossal ~11,800-satellite broadband internet constellation nominally designed, manufactured, launched, and operated by SpaceX. On May 23rd, after approximately one week of delays, a twice-flown Falcon 9 booster lifted off for the third time in support of SpaceX’s first dedicated Starlink launch, an unparalleled 60-satellite beta test known internally as “Starlink v0.9”.
Upsetting all expectations, SpaceX managed to fit en incredible 60 high-performance Starlink satellites into Falcon 9’s unchanged payload fairing – middle of the ground in terms of usable volume. Weighing anywhere from 16,000 kg to 18,500 kg (35,300-40,800 lb), SpaceX’s very first dedicated Starlink launch also crushed the company’s record for heaviest payload launched by several metric tons.
In a fascinating turn of events, SpaceX ultimately sided with a largely unprecedented form factor for its operational Starlink satellites, resulting in ultra-thin, rectangular spacecraft that can be stacked like cards and feature their own integrated locking and stacking mechanisms.
A paradigm shift
According to NASASpaceflight.com, SpaceX’s first and second operational Starlink missions (Starlink 1 and 2) are scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) October 17th and November 4th, while a similarly trustworthy source puts Starlink 1’s launch date NET “late October”.
Given that Starlink v0.9 was effectively a massive flight test meant to tease out issues with the satellites’ designs, any new any satellites launched in the coming months will have almost certainly been manufactured, assembled, and prepared for flight in just a few months. Unfortunately, out of the 60 satellites launched in May 2019, 10 (16.5%) have been decommissioned for unknown reasons, although the remaining 50 (83.5%) have reached their final orbits and are believed to be in good health.
Put simply, a >15% failure rate is not acceptable for an operational constellation of thousands of satellites, meaning that SpaceX will likely continue to refine and improve its Starlink design before truly ramping up production and launch cadence. Unless the issues leading to multiple satellite failures were relatively simple or expected, the company’s next one (or two) Starlink launches could be closer to “v0.95” than the first fully operational missions. Time will tell.
For now, the fact alone that SpaceX reportedly plans to complete its 180th high-performance satellites barely nine months after beginning high-volume production is dumbfounding. Incredibly, building 180 satellites in 9 months is, by all means, a low-volume run relative to what SpaceX will need to achieve to launch its full Starlink constellation by late 2027. A production rate of 180 Starlink satellites per month is much closer to the necessary production and launch cadences needed for SpaceX’s deployment milestones.
Regardless, for the time being, it appears that odds are good that SpaceX will be able to make good on its promise of launching 2-6 Starlink missions in 2019. According to SpaceX, Starlink can begin offering serious commercial broadband services in regions of the northern US and southern Canada once 360 satellites are safely in orbit.
If SpaceX manages to launch two quasi-operational Starlink missions in the span of a month (Oct-Nov), that initial operations milestone could come just a few months into 2020.
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News
Tesla’s new Holiday perk is timed perfectly to make FSD a household name
Tesla AI4 owners get FSD (Supervised) through Christmas, New Year’s Eve and well into the post-holiday travel season.
Tesla quietly rolled out a free Full Self-Driving (Supervised) trial for roughly 1.5 million HW4 owners in North America who never bought the package, and the timing could very well be genius.
As it turns out, the trial doesn’t end after 30 days. Instead, it expires January 8, 2026, meaning owners get FSD (Supervised) through Christmas, New Year’s Eve and well into the post-holiday travel season. This extended window positions the feature for maximum word-of-mouth exposure.
A clever holiday gift
Tesla watcher Sawyer Merritt first spotted the detail after multiple owners shared screenshots showing the trial expiring on January 8. He confirmed with affected users that none had active FSD subscriptions before the rollout. He also observed that Tesla never called the promotion a “30-day trial,” as the in-car message simply reads “You’re Getting FSD (Supervised) For the Holidays,” which technically runs until after the new year.
The roughly 40-day period covers peak family travel and gatherings, giving owners ample opportunity to showcase the latest FSD V14’s capabilities on highway trips, crowded parking lots and neighborhood drives. With relatives riding along, hands-off highway driving and automatic lane changes could become instant conversation starters.
Rave reviews for FSD V14 highlight demo potential
FSD has been receiving positive reviews from users as of late. Following the release of FSD v14.2.1, numerous owners praised the update for its smoothness and reliability. Tesla owner @LactoseLunatic called it a “huge leap forward from version 14.1.4,” praising extreme smoothness, snappy lane changes and assertive yet safe behavior that allows relaxed monitoring.
-->Another Tesla owner, @DevinOlsenn, drove 600 km without disengagements, noting his wife now defaults to FSD for daily use due to its refined feel. Sawyer Merritt also tested FSD V14.2.1 in snow on unplowed New Hampshire roads, and the system stayed extra cautious without hesitation. Longtime FSD tester Chuck Cook highlighted improved sign recognition in school zones, showing better dynamic awareness. These reports of fewer interventions and a more “sentient” drive could turn family passengers into advocates, fueling subscriptions come January.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk predicts AI and robotics could make work “optional” within 20 years
Speaking on entrepreneur Nikhil Kamath’s podcast, Musk predicted that machines will soon handle most forms of labor, leaving humans to work only if they choose to.
Elon Musk stated that rapid advances in artificial intelligence and robotics could make traditional work unnecessary within two decades.
Speaking on entrepreneur Nikhil Kamath’s podcast, Musk predicted that machines will soon handle most forms of labor, leaving humans to work only if they choose to.
Work as a “hobby”
During the discussion, Musk said the accelerating capability of AI systems and general-purpose robots will eventually cover all essential tasks, making human labor a choice rather than an economic requirement. “In less than 20 years, working will be optional. Working at all will be optional. Like a hobby,” Musk said.
When Kamath asked whether this future is driven by massive productivity growth, Musk agreed, noting that people will still be free to work if they enjoy the routine or the challenge. He compared future employment to home gardening, as it is something people can still do for personal satisfaction even if buying food from a store is far easier.
“Optional” work in the future
Elon Musk acknowledged the boldness of his claim and joked that people might look back in 20 years and say he was wrong. That being said, the CEO noted that such a scenario could even happen sooner than his prediction, at least if one were to consider the pace of the advancements in AI and robotics.
-->“Obviously people can play this back in 20 years and say, ‘Look, Elon made this ridiculous prediction and it’s not true,’ but I think it will turn out to be true, that in less than 20 years, maybe even as little as ten or 15 years, the advancements in AI and robotics will bring us to the point where working is optional,” Musk said.
Elon Musk’s comments echo his previous sentiments at Tesla’s 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting, where he noted that Optimus could ultimately eliminate poverty. He also noted that robots like Optimus could eventually provide people worldwide with the best medical care.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reiterates why Tesla will never make an electric motorcycle
Tesla CEO Elon Musk preemptively shut down speculations about a Tesla road bike once more.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk preemptively shut down speculations about a Tesla road bike once more, highlighting that the electric vehicle maker has no plans to enter the electric motorcycle market.
Musk posted his clarification in a post on X.
Musk’s reply to a fun AI video
X user @Moandbhr posted an AI video featuring the Tesla CEO on the social media platform, captioning it with “Mr. Elon Musk Just Revealed the Game-Changing Tesla Motorcycle.” The short clip depicted Musk approaching a sleek, single-wheeled vehicle, stepping onto it, and gliding off into the distance amid cheers. The fun video received a lot of traction on X, gaining 3.1 million views as of writing.
Musk replied to the post, stating that a Tesla motorcycle is not going to happen. “Never happening, as we can’t make motorcycles safe. For Community Notes, my near death experience was on a road bike. Dirt bikes are safe if you ride carefully, as you can’t be smashed by a truck,” Musk wrote in his reply.
Musk’s Past Comments on Two-Wheelers
Musk also detailed his reservations about motorcycles in a December 2019 X post while responding to questions about Tesla’s potential ATV. At the time, he responded positively to an electric ATV, though he also opposed the idea of a Tesla road-going motorcycle. Musk did state that electric dirt bikes might be cool, since they do not operate in areas where large vehicles like Class 8 trucks are present.
-->“Electric dirt bikes would be cool too. We won’t do road bikes, as too dangerous. I was hit by a truck & almost died on one when I was 17,” Musk wrote in his post.
Considering Musk’s comments about dirt bikes, however, perhaps Tesla would eventually offer a road bike as a recreational vehicle. Such a two-wheeler would be a good fit for the Cybertruck, as well as future products like the Robovan, which could be converted into an RV.
Tesla’s new Holiday perk is timed perfectly to make FSD a household name
Elon Musk predicts AI and robotics could make work “optional” within 20 years
