News
SpaceX’s next Falcon 9 missions likely two back-to-back Starlink satellite launches
Hinted at by a launch photographer and confirmed by an article published on NASASpaceflight.com, it appears that SpaceX’s next Falcon 9 launch is at least a month away and will likely be the company’s first operational Starlink mission, deemed “Starlink 1”.
Barring a surprise mission in the interim, this means that SpaceX is going to have a gap of at least two months between customer launches, something the company has not experienced since mid-2015 – more than four years ago. As such, it’s an extremely happy coincidence that SpaceX may now have internal Starlink launches to fill lulls in its commercial launch manifest.
Like any production and services-focused company, SpaceX incurs operational costs whether or not its services are being used – employees, leases, supplier contracts, and more still need to be paid for, facilities still need upkeep, long-lead production can’t simply pause, and many other recurring costs can’t be avoided. In theory, supplementing commercial launches with internal launches thus limits SpaceX’s downtime and effectively increases overall capital efficiency.
Flatsat revolution
Enter Starlink, a colossal ~11,800-satellite broadband internet constellation nominally designed, manufactured, launched, and operated by SpaceX. On May 23rd, after approximately one week of delays, a twice-flown Falcon 9 booster lifted off for the third time in support of SpaceX’s first dedicated Starlink launch, an unparalleled 60-satellite beta test known internally as “Starlink v0.9”.
Upsetting all expectations, SpaceX managed to fit en incredible 60 high-performance Starlink satellites into Falcon 9’s unchanged payload fairing – middle of the ground in terms of usable volume. Weighing anywhere from 16,000 kg to 18,500 kg (35,300-40,800 lb), SpaceX’s very first dedicated Starlink launch also crushed the company’s record for heaviest payload launched by several metric tons.
In a fascinating turn of events, SpaceX ultimately sided with a largely unprecedented form factor for its operational Starlink satellites, resulting in ultra-thin, rectangular spacecraft that can be stacked like cards and feature their own integrated locking and stacking mechanisms.
A paradigm shift
According to NASASpaceflight.com, SpaceX’s first and second operational Starlink missions (Starlink 1 and 2) are scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) October 17th and November 4th, while a similarly trustworthy source puts Starlink 1’s launch date NET “late October”.
Given that Starlink v0.9 was effectively a massive flight test meant to tease out issues with the satellites’ designs, any new any satellites launched in the coming months will have almost certainly been manufactured, assembled, and prepared for flight in just a few months. Unfortunately, out of the 60 satellites launched in May 2019, 10 (16.5%) have been decommissioned for unknown reasons, although the remaining 50 (83.5%) have reached their final orbits and are believed to be in good health.
Put simply, a >15% failure rate is not acceptable for an operational constellation of thousands of satellites, meaning that SpaceX will likely continue to refine and improve its Starlink design before truly ramping up production and launch cadence. Unless the issues leading to multiple satellite failures were relatively simple or expected, the company’s next one (or two) Starlink launches could be closer to “v0.95” than the first fully operational missions. Time will tell.
For now, the fact alone that SpaceX reportedly plans to complete its 180th high-performance satellites barely nine months after beginning high-volume production is dumbfounding. Incredibly, building 180 satellites in 9 months is, by all means, a low-volume run relative to what SpaceX will need to achieve to launch its full Starlink constellation by late 2027. A production rate of 180 Starlink satellites per month is much closer to the necessary production and launch cadences needed for SpaceX’s deployment milestones.
Regardless, for the time being, it appears that odds are good that SpaceX will be able to make good on its promise of launching 2-6 Starlink missions in 2019. According to SpaceX, Starlink can begin offering serious commercial broadband services in regions of the northern US and southern Canada once 360 satellites are safely in orbit.
If SpaceX manages to launch two quasi-operational Starlink missions in the span of a month (Oct-Nov), that initial operations milestone could come just a few months into 2020.
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Elon Musk
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.
Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”
Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.
🚨 Wedbush’s Dan Ives has released a new note on Tesla $TSLA:
“Tesla announced its FY4Q25 delivery numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k vehicles slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k as the…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026
In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.
However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.
While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.
Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
Investor's Corner
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Deliveries stood at 406,585 Model 3/Y and 11,642 other models, for a total of 418,227 vehicles.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has reported its Q4 2025 production and deliveries, with 418,227 vehicles delivered and 434,358 produced worldwide. Energy storage deployments hit a quarterly record at 14.2 GWh.
Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 results were posted on Friday, January 2, 2026.
Q4 2025 production and deliveries
In Q4 2025, Tesla produced 422,652 Model 3/Y units and 11,706 other models, which are comprised of the Model S, Model X, and the Cybertruck, for a total of 434,358 vehicles. Deliveries stood at 406,585 Model 3/Y and 11,642 other models, for a total of 418,227 vehicles.
Energy deployments reached 14.2 GWh, a new record. Similar to other reports, Tesla posted a company thanked customers, employees, suppliers, shareholders, and supporters for its fourth quarter results.
In comparison, analysts included in Tesla’s company-compiled consensus estimate that Tesla would deliver 422,850 vehicles and deploy 13.4 GWh of battery storage systems in Q4 2025.
Tesla’s Full Year 2025 results
For the full year, Tesla produced a total of 1,654,667 vehicles, comprised of 1,600,767 Model Y/3 and 53,900 other models. Tesla also delivered 1,636,129 vehicles in FY 2025, comprised of 1,585,279 Model Y/3 and 50,850 other models. Energy deployments totaled 46.7 GWh over the year.
In comparison, analysts included in Tesla’s company-compiled consensus expected the company to deliver a total of 1,640,752 vehicles for full year 2025. Analysts also expected Tesla’s energy division to deploy a total of 45.9 GWh during the year.
Tesla will post its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 after market close on Wednesday, January 28, 2026. The company’s Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call is expected to be held on the same day at 4:30 p.m. Central Time.
Elon Musk
Starlink achieves major milestones in 2025 progress report
Starlink wrapped up 2025 with impressive growth, adding more than 4.6 million new active customers and expanding service to 35 additional countries, territories, and markets.
Starlink wrapped up 2025 with impressive growth, adding more than 4.6 million new active customers and expanding service to 35 additional countries, territories, and markets. The company also completed deployment of its first-generation Direct to Cell constellation, launching over 650 satellites in just 18 months to enable cellular connectivity.
SpaceX highlighted Starlink’s impressive 2025 progress in an extensive report.
Key achievements from Starlink’s 2025 Progress
Starlink connected over 4.6 million new customers with high-speed internet while bringing service to 35 more regions worldwide in 2025. Starlink is now connecting 9.2 million people worldwide. The service achieved this just weeks after hitting its 8 million customer milestone.
Starlink is now available in 155 markets, including areas that are unreachable by traditional ISPs. As per SpaceX, Starlink has also provided over 21 million airline passengers and 20 million cruise passengers with reliable high-speed internet connectivity during their travels.
Starlink Direct to Cell
Starlink’s Direct to Cell constellation, more than 650 satellites strong, has already connected over 12 million people at least once, marking a breakthrough in global mobile coverage.
Starlink Direct to Cell is currently rolled out to 22 countries and 6 continents, with over 6 million monthly customers. Starlink Direct to Cell also has 27 MNO partners to date.
“This year, SpaceX completed deployment of the first generation of the Starlink Direct to Cell constellation, with more than 650 satellites launched to low-Earth orbit in just 18 months. Starlink Direct to Cell has connected more than 12 million people, and counting, at least once, providing life-saving connectivity when people need it most,” SpaceX wrote.
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
