News
SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy launch on track to carry multiple military satellites
According to one of the US Space Force 44 (USSF-44) mission’s satellite providers, SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy launch remains on track for late 2020 and will apparently be carrying more than one military satellite to orbit.
Successfully launched just 73 days apart in April and June 2019, SpaceX already has two twice-flown Falcon Heavy side boosters in storage somewhere in Cape Canaveral, Florida, raising the possibility that one or several of the rocket’s next launches could reuse those some boosters. However, NASASpaceflight.com has already confirmed that all three Falcon Heavy Flight 4 boosters will be new, likely representing 25-30%+ of all of SpaceX’s 2020 booster production output.
That also means that publicly-visible Falcon Heavy Flight 4 launch preparations will start much sooner than later as SpaceX works to ship its new boosters from its Hawthorne, California factory to McGregor, Texas for routine acceptance testing and finally to launch facilities in Florida.
Based on SpaceX’s first Falcon Heavy Block 5 launch, completed on April 11th, 2019, the next rocket’s three new boosters should begin arriving in Florida by mid-2020 – perhaps just a month or two from now. Prior to Arabsat 6A’s commercial Falcon Heavy launch debut, the first of the rocket’s boosters completed acceptance testing in McGregor, Texas and arrived at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) around mid-December 2018 – a bit less than four months before liftoff.
Per NASASpaceflight’s confirmation that all-new boosters are assigned to USSF-44, it’s also true that the mission will mark the second time SpaceX has completed serial production and delivery of a complete Falcon Heavy rocket. With that first-time pathfinder run already behind SpaceX thanks to its April 2019 Arabsat 6A launch, it’s likely that manufacturing and acceptance testing will be much more streamlined, while also reducing the amount of time it will take the rocket to go from Florida arrival to lift-off.
USSF-44 is on track to become SpaceX’s first operational Falcon Heavy launch for the US government some 15-18 months after the company successfully completed STP-2 – a certification test flight for the US Air Force – in June 2019. While some work reportedly remains before SpaceX’s super heavy-lift rocket can be considered fully certified for high-value US military launches, Millenium Space’s April 21st update states that Falcon Heavy’s USSF-44 mission is still on track to “launch in late 2020”.
Given that SpaceX is likely in the midst of Falcon Heavy Flight 4 booster production and could begin delivering hardware to Florida just 2-3 months from now, Millenium Space’s comment strongly implies that launch preparations are proceeding smoothly. If SpaceX still needs to complete one or several certification milestones, both it and the US military clearly have a firm plan and are confident that Falcon Heavy can be certified by Q4 2020.
SpaceX also appears to be supporting the US military’s relatively frequent addition of small secondary satellites – often prototypes meant to test new technologies or strategies – on large launches. Whether SpaceX will add secondary dispensers to the rocket’s upper stage or the ~3.7 metric ton (~8200 lb) USSF-44 satellite deploys them itself remains to be seen, but the mission will carry at least one other passenger (TETRA-1). If past US military launches are anything to go by, at least one or two other smaller satellites may also hitch a ride on Falcon Heavy later this year.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
