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SpaceX’s plans for a reusable Dragon spacecraft fleet detailed by Gwynne Shotwell

COO and President Gwynne Shotwell says that SpaceX is already in the process of building a fleet of seven Crew and Cargo Dragon spacecraft. (SpaceX/SpaceX/NASA)

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President and COO Gwynne Shotwell says that SpaceX is simultaneously building a fleet of reusable, orbital Dragon spacecraft designed to support a range of NASA and commercial astronaut and cargo launches over the next 5-10 years.

Speaking shortly after SpaceX’s successful November 15th operational astronaut launch debut, also known as Crew-1, Shotwell revealed that the company is already in the process of building several more Crew and upgraded Cargo Dragon spacecraft on top of the vehicles already in the late stages of preparing for their first or second flights.

The comments ultimately confirm an unsurprising reality of the new Dragon 2 spacecraft: thanks to reusability, SpaceX intends to accomplish more than ever before with far fewer vehicles, likely saving a great deal of time and resources over the next 5-10 years.

Jim Bridenstine, Kathy Lueders, Hiroshi Sasaki, Steve Dickson, and Gwynne Shotwell spoke during a Crew-1 post-launch press conference on November 15th. (NASA)

Specifically, Shotwell revealed that SpaceX intends to build three reusable Cargo Dragon 2 capsules, one of which is already completed and in Florida preparing for its December 2nd CRS-21 launch debut. On the crew side of things, SpaceX will build “three more” Crew Dragon capsules on top of the flight-proven Demo-2 and currently orbital Crew-1 capsules. It’s unclear if this means that the new Crew Dragon capsule flown on SpaceX’s January 2020 In-Flight Abort (IFA) test will be refurbished for additional flights.

Excluding IFA Crew Dragon capsule C205, SpaceX thus intends to operate a fleet of at least three Cargo Dragon 2 and five Crew Dragon capsules, representing eight reusable spacecraft each capable of at least five orbital missions.

(NASA)
Crew-1 Dragon capsule C207 safely arrived at the ISS on November 16th and is expected to return to Earth sometime in April or May 2021. (Sergey Kud-Sverchkov)

Reiterated by both Shotwell and director Benji Reed, the company has plans for as many as eight or more Dragon missions – including Crew-1, launched on November 15th – between now and February 2022.

“Over the next 15 months, we will fly seven Crew and Cargo Dragon missions for NASA. That means that starting with Crew-1, there will be a continuous presence of SpaceX Dragons on orbit. Starting with the cargo mission CRS-21, every time we launch a Dragon, there will be two Dragons in space – simultaneously – for extended periods of time. Truly, we are returning the United States’ capability for full launch services and we are very, very honored to be a part of that.”

Benji Reed, SpaceX – November 10th, 2020

After mirroring Reed’s seven-flight estimate for the next year or so, Shotwell later added that she had been hedging by adding a fully private Crew Dragon mission recently announced by Axiom Space and scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) late 2021. She also hinted at the possibility of “some other fun missions which I’ll chat about later.” All told, SpaceX appears to be gearing up for an incredibly busy year and a half of three NASA Crew Dragon missions, four uncrewed Cargo Dragon launches, and even one private astronaut launch.

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Indeed, official NASA planning documents confirm plans for eight Crew and Cargo Dragon launches – including Crew-1 – between November 2020 and March 2022. In other words, even excluding the possibility of Axiom’s first private Dragon launch in November or December 2021, SpaceX is already tracking towards an average of one Dragon launch every two months (or less) for the next 16 months.

Crew Dragon Demo-2 capsule C206 was recovered on August 2nd, 2020. (NASA)

To complete that extremely ambitious manifest, SpaceX and NASA will have to lean more heavily than ever before on Falcon 9 and Dragon reusability, putting to the test whether upgraded Dragon 2 capsules are dramatically more reusable than their Dragon 1 predecessors. For reference, SpaceX’s Dragon 1 capsule turnaround record was just shy of 15 months between orbital launches. To complete five CRS2 cargo launches and three or four Crew Dragon launches in 16 months, SpaceX will have to break its orbital spacecraft turnaround record at least twice, if not three or four times.

The sooty booster at the top of this photo is likely B1058, preparing to launch CRS-21 from Pad 39A just 17 days after Crew-1 (center) lifted off. (SpaceX)

SpaceX’s next NASA astronaut launch (Crew-2) is already scheduled to crush that Dragon reuse record by as many as five months (~33%) when it launches in March 2021 – marking Demo-2 capsule C206’s second orbital mission. Meanwhile, Cargo Dragon 2’s CRS-21 launch debut is expected to fly on Falcon 9 booster B1058, making it NASA’s first orbital launch on a twice-flown and thrice-flown booster.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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NHTSA just escalated its Tesla Cybercab investigation in a big way

NHTSA escalated its Cybercab audit into a sworn Special Order with a September 30 deadline.

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Federal regulators have moved from asking Tesla questions about its Cybercab to demanding sworn answers. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration issued a Special Order that requires a Tesla officer to sign an affidavit attesting to the completeness of the company’s responses, with a deadline of September 30.

The order builds on Audit Query AQ26002, which NHTSA opened on September 3, the same day Tesla began commercial Cybercab service in Austin. Teslarati covered that initial inquiry when it surfaced, noting the agency wanted to understand how Tesla certified a vehicle with no permanently attached steering wheel, pedals, or mirrors as compliant with Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards. A Special Order is a different tool and converts a fact finding review into a legally enforceable demand, the same mechanism NHTSA used against Tesla in 2023 during its Autopilot investigation.

Several of the 21 requests target a specific gap in Cybercab’s design. One asks whether Tesla used temporarily attached human controls at any point to help certify the vehicle, and if so, which standards depended on that equipment being present. Another quotes an existing rule directly: “The service brakes shall be activated by means of a foot control.” Cybercab has no foot pedal. NHTSA wants a detailed explanation of how the vehicle satisfies that requirement, and how it complies without the kind of exemption granted to Zoox in July under Part 555, the regulatory pathway built for steering wheel free vehicles.

The order does not claim Cybercab is unsafe or that Tesla broke a rule. It requires Tesla to explain, under oath, the reasoning behind decisions the company already made when it self-certified the vehicle. That distinction matters, but so does the exposure. Motor1’s reporting, summarized here, put potential civil penalty exposure as high as $139 million if NHTSA later finds the certification was flawed, on top of whatever criminal risk comes with a false sworn statement.

Tesla has not said publicly how it plans to respond. Cybercab is still carrying passengers in Austin through the Robotaxi app while the September 30 deadline approaches, and the company has continued expanding the vehicle’s footprint even as the regulatory question remains open. The Special Order does not pause any of that and just sets a date by which Tesla has to put its certification logic on the record, with a company officer’s name attached to it.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla uber bull Ron Baron says ‘the time to buy the stock is now’

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Credit: Tesla

In a new interview on Wednesday, Tesla uber bull Ron Baron said that anyone looking to buy the company’s stock should do so as soon as they can.

Baron, founder and CEO of Baron Capital and one of Tesla’s most persistent institutional bulls, used a CNBC Squawk Box appearance on Wednesday to deliver a familiar message with fresh urgency: In his opinion, Tesla stock is a buy:

“The time to buy the stock is now. FSD is catching on, and it’s going to be bigger and bigger. 55% of new buyers are buying it (Teslas) with FSD. It’s going to be everywhere. It’s safer.”

The Baron Capital frontman’s case is built around Full Self-Driving. Tesla reported 1.48 million active FSD subscriptions in the second quarter, up 56 percent year over year, and company officials have said roughly 55 percent of new North American deliveries left with a subscription enabled.

Baron framed that attach rate as proof the product is moving from enthusiast extra to default expectation, and as a reason software, not just vehicle volume, should drive the next phase of value.

His conviction on Tesla shares is not theoretical, as Baron Capital made its first Tesla investment in 2014, after years of meetings that began around the 2010 IPO roadshow. The firm later built a large SpaceX position starting in 2017.

Baron said those Musk-led bets have generated about $30 billion of the $71 billion in profits Baron Capital has produced for clients. He put the firm’s current exposure at roughly $25 billion in SpaceX and $5 billion in Tesla. Personally, he described SpaceX as his largest holding, at about $5 billion, with about $1.5 billion in Tesla and additional Tesla exposure through the firm’s funds.

That concentration is also a statement of loyalty. Asked about talk of a SpaceX-Tesla combination, Baron said he had already walked Elon Musk through arguments for and against a deal, then declined to repeat them on air. His public position was simpler: “Whatever you decide is better is what I’m going to support,” he said to Musk.

Baron also said that he picked up the farewell edition of the Model S after Tesla decided to sunset the vehicle earlier this year, calling it his favorite car he’s ever driven.

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Elon Musk

SpaceX’s next Starship launch is about to attempt its biggest leap yet

SpaceX targets September 22 for Starship Flight 14, its first attempt to reach real orbit.

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SpaceX has set September 22 as the target date for Starship’s 14th test flight, and this one carries a different goal than any of the 13 that came before it. Every previous Starship mission has intentionally flown a suborbital arc, reentering the atmosphere within the same hour it launched. Flight 14 is designed to send the craft into a genuine orbit around Earth for the first time.

The launch window opens at 7:15 a.m. Central time at Starbase in South Texas and runs for 75 minutes, pending regulatory approval, according to SpaceX’s mission description published Tuesday. If the flight goes as planned, Starship will circle the planet roughly six times at an altitude near 275 kilometers over about ten hours before a deorbit burn sends it toward a splashdown in the Pacific Ocean west of Chile, a departure from the Indian Ocean recoveries used on the last several flights.

The mission also marks the first attempt to put a working batch of Starlink V3 satellites into actual service. Flight 13 carried 20 of the new satellites in July, but because that mission never left a suborbital trajectory, the payload reentered along with the ship instead of separating into orbit.

SpaceX tells the FCC that Starship Flight 14 is going to orbit

Each V3 satellite is rated for roughly one terabit per second of downlink capacity, so a successful deployment on Flight 14 would be SpaceX’s largest single jump in network bandwidth since Starlink began flying on Falcon 9.

Flight 13 still did the heavier lifting on the technical side. That July mission flew a deliberately more stressful reentry profile to test Starship’s heat shield, and the ship survived its softest splashdown yet, intact enough for drone inspections shortly after landing. Elon Musk said the flight delivered “all the heat shield data we needed and then some,” a result Teslarati covered in detail when he later said SpaceX had solved the vehicle’s biggest reusability challenge. Flight 14 is where SpaceX starts spending that confidence on an actual orbital insertion rather than another controlled fall back to Earth.

One thing Flight 14 will not attempt is a tower catch of the ship. Musk floated the idea right after Flight 13, but walked the timeline back in August, saying a catch attempt was more likely “in a few months.” The Super Heavy booster will still aim for its own recovery, targeting an offshore landing point in the Gulf of America, the same approach used on recent flights.

September 22 is SpaceX’s own target, not a locked date. Starship’s schedule has slipped before over hardware readiness and FAA sign off, and the company has said as much in its own mission notes. But the plan itself represents the clearest marker yet that Starship is moving from a suborbital test program into something meant to carry paying payloads and, eventually, people.

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