News
SpaceX Mars landing expert talks Starship recovery challenges in new interview
Formerly responsible for developing Falcon 9 (and Heavy) into the routinely-landing reusable rocket it is today, senior SpaceX engineer Lars Blackmore says he now has one primary focus: figuring out how to land Starship on Earth, the Moon, and Mars.
A graduate of University of Cambridge and MIT, the latter of which interviewed him on October 23rd for an “Alumni Stories” blog, Lars Blackmore has become famous for his groundbreaking work in guidance, navigation, and control (GNC). After graduating with honors from Cambridge and earning a PhD from MIT, Dr. Blackmore joined NASA in 2007 and immersed himself in “precision Mars landing”, part of a more general focus on figuring out how to autonomously control vehicles in uncertain conditions.
In his last year at NASA, Blackmore co-invented an algorithm known as G-FOLD (Guidance for Fuel Optimal Large Divert) that should theoretically enable precision landings on Mars, improving the state of the art by two full orders of magnitude (+/- 10 km to +/- 100 m). In 2011, he departed NASA and joined SpaceX, where he lead the development of the GNC technology needed to successfully and reliably recovery Falcon 9 boosters. Although the same could be said for any number of critical, groundbreaking systems that had to be developed, the onboard software that autonomously guides Falcon 9 landings on the fly is one of many things that booster recovery and reuse would be wholly impossible without.
After numerous failed attempts, all part SpaceX’s preferred learning process, Falcon 9 successfully landed for the first time on December 21st, 2015. As they say, the rest is history: in the roughly four years since that milestone landing, SpaceX has successfully completed 57 orbital launches, recovered boosters 43 more times, and reused flight-proven boosters on 23 launches. Since that first success, more than half of all SpaceX launches have been followed by a successful booster landing (or two).
Back to Mars
In 2018, Dr. Blackmore officially took on a new full-time role as SpaceX’s Principal Mars Landing Engineer. As the namesake suggests, this meant handing (now semi-routine) Falcon 9 and Heavy GNC development to a strong team and beginning to tackle an array of new problems that will need to be solved for SpaceX to reach the Moon, Mars, and beyond.
Following radical design modifications made to Starship in 2018 and again in 2019, SpaceX is pursuing a radically different method of recovery with Starship (the upper stage), while Super Heavy will more directly follow in the footsteps of Falcon 9/Heavy. Starship, however, is being designed to perform a guided descent more akin to a skydiver falling straight down, using flaps at its nose and tail (explicitly “not wings”) to accurately guide its fall.
As little as a few hundred meters above the ground, Starship will then perform a radical maneuver, igniting its Raptor engines to flip around, burn in the opposite direction to counteract that sideways boost, and finally coming in for a precise landing on Earth/Mars/the Moon.
Beyond the new GNC software and knowledge needed to make that maneuver real, Blackmore is also responsible for Starship atmospheric entry, no less critical to enabling precise, repeatable landings from orbital velocity to touchdown. In his recent interview with University of Cambridge staff, Lars revealed that his role as Principal Mars Landing Engineer involved a far wider scope than his previous GNC-centered work, with the goal instead being to design a launch vehicle (Starship) from the ground up to be easily recovered and reused. Falcon 9 Block 5 may be radically different than the ‘V1.0’ rocket that debuted in 2010, but it’s still ultimately a product of retroactive engineering.
With Starship and Super Heavy, SpaceX instead wants to take the vast wealth of knowledge and experience gained from F9/FH and build the vehicle from the ground up to be optimized for full reuse. Ultimately, Dr. Blackmore stated that “landing Starship will be much harder than landing Falcon 9, but if [SpaceX] can do it, it will be revolutionary.”
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Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
