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SpaceX rocket ready for second reusability record, Starlink launch attempt

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is ready for its second reusability record and Starlink launch attempt. (Richard Angle)

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One of SpaceX’s first upgraded Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters is ready for its second attempt to set a reusability record after its March 15th Starlink launch attempt aborted at the very last second.

Now scheduled to send SpaceX’s sixth batch of 60 Starlink satellites into orbit no earlier than (NET) 8:16 am EDT (12:16 UTC), March 18th, the mission will be Falcon 9 booster B1048’s fifth. Just four months ago, the booster successfully launched the first 60 upgraded Starlink v1.0 satellites, also becoming the second SpaceX rocket to fly four times. While B1049 – B1048’s predecessor – was first to reach the four-flight milestone in May 2019, B1048 is now on track to take the next leap forward for Falcon 9 reusability.

First noted shortly after the abort on SpaceX’s March 15th launch webcast, the company later clarified that what could have been attributed to hardware failure was likely just an issue with software or sensors. Milliseconds before liftoff, Falcon 9’s autonomous flight computer seemingly didn’t like what it saw while interpreting the telemetry flowing in from the ignition of B1048’s nine Merlin 1D engines. Whatever the specific trouble, Falcon 9 believed that one or several of those Merlin 1D engines were producing more thrust than they should.

SpaceX is T-6 hours to its next Starlink launch attempt. (Richard Angle)

While likely oversimplifying what is a spectacularly complex logic system, the flight computers that control Falcon launch vehicles from T-1 minute to mission completion have to treat the messy uncertainty of reality through a black and white lens. Lacking the ability to heuristically interpret the data they process, the computers instead rely on algorithms that filter thousands of channels of telemetry into a handful of simple categories. If that data aligns with the computer’s expectations, things are okay. If the data doesn’t agree with the plan, things are not okay. There are, of course, many more levels of complexity, but the concept of operations remains mostly the same.

However, the telemetry itself is also a potential point of failure – bad data could lead the flight computer astray, concluding that things are okay when they aren’t or vice versa. To handle that potential failure mode, SpaceX relies on multiple strings of telemetry (and even multiple computers), all gathering and analyzing the same things simultaneously. If one of several redundant sensors starts to disagree with its brethren, reporting different data back to Falcon 9’s flight computers, it’s apparent that the sensor – not the thing it’s measuring – is likely at fault. Still, out of an abundance of caution, SpaceX avionics typically treat most “out-of-family” sensor readings as reason enough to delay or fully abort a launch. When a launch delay can be little more than an annoyance with a negligible cost, it’s almost universally better to be safe than sorry.

Frosty Falcon 9 booster B1048 sits at Pad 39A just a few hours after its last-second launch abort. (Richard Angle)
Falcon 9 B1049 lifts off for the fourth time in January 2020. (Richard Angle)

With Falcon 9 B1048’s March 15th false start, the rocket’s computer appears to have received conflicting readings from the same family (or families) of engine thrust sensors. While, as noted above, the fault almost certainly lay in an engine sensor or two and not in the engines themselves, the flight computer chose caution over expedience and halted the launch milliseconds before it would have otherwise commanded clamp release and lifted off.

Confirmed by SpaceX delaying the Starlink V1 L5 mission by just three days, the issue was almost certainly software or sensor-related. Given that SpaceX continues to push the envelope of launch vehicle reusability, it’s honestly more surprising that aborts like these aren’t more common. Instead, the reality is that Falcon 9 Block 5 – aside from delays from the occasional upper stage fault – almost never suffers hardware-related aborts when compared to the rocket’s prior iterations.

60 Starlink satellites patiently await their ride to orbit inside SpaceX’s second flight-proven payload fairing. (SpaceX)
Prior to the abort, SpaceX teased a brief glimpse of Ms. Tree or Ms. Chief at sea, preparing for their latest fairing catch attempt. (SpaceX)

Featuring the second-ever flight-proven Falcon payload fairing, Falcon 9 B1048 will hopefully become the first SpaceX rocket to complete five orbital-class launches and landings. With more than a little luck, there’s also a smaller chance that the mission could mark the first time SpaceX successfully catches both fairing halves with twin ships Ms. Tree and Ms. Chief.

Tune in for SpaceX’s second Starlink V1 L5 launch attempt around 8am EDT (12:00 UTC) to catch the potentially record-breaking launch and landing live.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk updates the SpaceX timeline for Mars

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Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX
Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX

Elon Musk has updated his timeline for when humans will walk on Mars and for when ships will simply get there.

The objective of getting to Mars has been one of Musk’s biggest goals since becoming a serial entrepreneur and realizing that time on Earth is limited. Musk has said several times he hopes to die on Mars, and not by impact.

Musk now believes that people will be on Mars in “roughly 5 to 7 years.” He said that a Mars lander will get there “a few years sooner.”

The response from Musk comes after NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said that SpaceX’s biggest priority is the Moon and not Mars. Because of this, Isaacman conceded that he believes nuclear power and propulsion investments will provide “potentially the pathway with the fewest miracles required to put four people on Mars in the next 10 to 15 years.”

Of course, this is what NASA can do through taxpayer funding and nuclear investments, he added.

Musk’s grand ambitions are much more optimistic than most, and it is certainly a double-edged sword. This is not the first time timelines for Mars have been somewhat lofty, especially to those normal thinkers like you and me, not super geniuses like Musk.

SpaceX Board has set a Mars bonus for Elon Musk

In fact, the SpaceX and Tesla frontman has said on at least a dozen occasions that we could be on Mars in the coming years. Musk said 2020 would be the big year as early as 2009. In 2020, he was “highly confident” of a landing in 2026, and had even said 2024 in a best-case scenario.

The point is, the range has varied, and it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll get there. This latest adjustment to the timeline is typical of Musk, and while the Moon has seemingly taken priority over Mars, it is still worth mentioning that the ultimate goal is to make life multiplanetary, and it starts potentially with the Red Planet.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX gets an absolutely crazy price target after rough IPO

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) got an absolutely crazy price target rating from Raymond James after the company experienced a tough first few weeks following its Initial Public Offering (IPO).

Despite the tumultuous start, SpaceX has plenty of believers, and the company’s massively successful Starship launch last Friday, its 13th test flight of the massive rocket, went so smoothly that Raymond James analysts pushed its price target on the company to roughly 7 times its current trading level.

SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before

The firm officially put a “Strong Buy” rating and an $800 price target on the stock. It currently trades at around $113. Its all-time high is $225.64, reaching this trading level shortly after shares first went public.

Raymond James’ price target is tied to the firm’s confidence after Starship’s 13th test flight. Analysts at the firm said it was an incremental step that reduces engineering risks, citing the widely successful heat shield test that CEO Elon Musk recently detailed, the smooth deployment of Starlink V3 satellites, and a successful in-space engine relight.

SpaceX also managed to see Starship splash down safely in the Indian Ocean, while the Super Heavy Booster fell down to the Gulf of America with no incidents.

It is interesting to see these launches have such a tremendous impact on the stock and what investors think of it. After SpaceX initially delayed the Starship launch last week, shares fell tremendously. Most probably did not realize that the stand-down is a standard practice, especially if everything is not perfect.

The mission was initially aborted due to an issue with Raptor engines. This was resolved, and Starship launched last Friday after another delay on Thursday, which was caused by weather.

Now that analysts have seen what SpaceX launches are capable of and how impressive the feat is, firms are adjusting their price targets accordingly, making it known that they have high expectations for the space exploration company.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk responds to Volvo’s latest LiDAR decision

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has responded to reports that Volvo is officially discontinuing the LiDAR sensor on two of its cars.

Volvo announced that it would officially scrap LiDAR systems on its EX90 and ES90 vehicles in various markets. In Norway, owners will get a €1,800 compensation for features that will never arrive due to this decision. There will be no option to remove the unit from vehicles, either.

The issue stems from Volvo’s supplier, Luminar, and its bankruptcy filing. Luminar will no longer be able to supply LiDAR units to Volvo for the EX90 and ES90, effectively axing any use the unit has on vehicles. Volvo will phase out the data collection processes via the LiDAR system, and it will not be utilized whatsoever.

Musk saw the story on X and responded, stating:

“I did try to warn them. Humans drive using neural nets and optical sensors. Same is true for robot cars.”

Musk has been publicly vocal about his disdain for LiDAR systems, once calling them “a fool’s errand,” as he has consistently kept the outlook that they are not needed for effective self-driving.

The typical example used as evidence for this by Musk is humans themselves: made with only eyes and memories, humans are capable of navigating a car by using what they can see and what they’ve personally experienced on the road.

Elon Musk argues lidar and radar make self driving cars more dangerous

“Same is true for robot cars,” Musk says, as Teslas have eight exterior cameras that help see everything surrounding the vehicle, and a neural network that analyzes behavior and tendencies with every mile driven.

Tesla is a vision-only self-driving company that ditched sensors and radar several years ago in favor of cameras. Behind this effort, the company has established a reputation for having one of the most robust self-driving platforms in the world.

Musk’s big bet with Tesla on its self-driving program’s strategy has widely paid off. Other companies continue to utilize things like LiDAR, radar, and sensors for effective self-driving, but Tesla has shown that there is more than one way to give consumers a strong and accurate driver assistance suite.

The real question is: who will be the first company to take Musk’s advice and attempt a self-driving platform based on cameras only, or even license FSD for themselves?

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