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SpaceX’s Crew Dragon explosion investigation almost complete, says executive
Speaking at the 2019 AIAA Propulsion & Energy Forum, SpaceX Vice President of Build and Flight Reliability Hans Koenigsmann was significantly more confident that the company is just days or weeks away from wrapping up a serious Crew Dragon failure investigation.
On April 20th, flight-proven Crew Dragon capsule C201 experienced a catastrophic failure mode – largely a surprise to SpaceX – that completely destroyed the vehicle milliseconds prior to a planned static fire test. Given the obvious mortal danger such a failure would have posed to any crew aboard, SpaceX’s plans to conduct its first crewed Crew Dragon launch (Demo-2) in Q3 2019 were thrown out the window. Thankfully, Hans believes that SpaceX is just shy of concluding that investigation, “hopefully” permitting the launch of a critical abort test and Demo-2 before 2019 is out.
More specifically, Koenigsmann noted that SpaceX is currently planning to conduct a critical Crew Dragon in-flight abort (IFA) test in October or November, more or less in line with a recent report from NASASpaceflight.com that the test is targeted for November 11th, 2019. NASASpaceflight also confirmed that SpaceX still plans to fly Falcon 9 booster B1046.3 on the critical test flight, currently the only established plan to launch a thrice-flown booster, a potential first for SpaceX’s reusability program.
SpaceX’s IFA test is a continuation of the company’s suborbital Crew Dragon testing. Back in 2015, SpaceX successfully completed a pad abort test in which a low-fidelity Dragon mockup used its eight SuperDraco abort thrusters to replicate an escape from a rocket failure on the launch pad. SpaceX’s in-flight abort test will – like its namesake indicates – perform a similar test in flight, ensuring that Crew Dragon is able to safely escape from a failing Falcon 9 at Max Q, the point during launch where atmosphere-induced mechanical stress is at its peak.
In theory, demonstrating a successful pad and in-flight (Max Q) abort means that a given spacecraft is able to safely abort at all points during flight – from the pad all the way to orbit. It’s not clear if Crew Dragon is actually designed to be capable of what’s known as an “abort-to-orbit”, but the hardware is likely there if it’s needed.
On July 15th, Hans Koenigsmann and NASA Commercial Crew Program (CCP) manager Kathy Lueders went into significant detail with a preliminary Crew Dragon failure investigation update. They revealed that Crew Dragon’s April 20th explosion was traced to a likely mode, in which a “slug” of Dragon’s liquid oxidizer (nitrogen tetroxide, NTO) leaked and was subsequently smashed into a titanium valve by helium pressurized to several thousand PSI.
Said impact – effectively turning NTO into a bullet – thus created a spark in one or two ways: the titanium debris could have easily created sparks on its own, while NTO is also known to interact in violent and exotic ways with titanium under impact conditions. Either way, the fix is relatively simple (replace the valves and avoid titanium in the NTO pressurization system), but the fact that the design flaw existed in the first place serves as a much larger concern for the entirety of Crew Dragon’s joint SpaceX-NASA design and certification.
Ultimately, Hans seemed much more confident on August 19th than he was a month prior, indicating that the investigation is just shy of wrapping up. Once complete, SpaceX can complete the necessary modifications and get back on the saddle for Crew Dragon’s inaugural crewed launch and next abort test.
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Elon Musk shed two new bits of detail on Starship following its 13th test launch, which was an overwhelming success.
SpaceX launched Starship for the 13th time last Friday after two delays: one on Monday when several Raptor engines did not ignite, and another on Thursday due to unfavorable weather conditions in Starbase, Texas.
The launch was overwhelmingly successful. SpaceX was able to complete a necessary test of the heat shield tiles by increasing the acceleration of Starship from launch throughout the flight; 20 Starlink v3 satellites were released with no issue; the Super Heavy Booster landed safely in the Gulf of America, Ship successfully reignited engines while in space; and it also splashed down without incident in the Indian Ocean.
SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before
Nevertheless, more details are coming out about Starship, and Musk is doing the talking.
Starship Will Be Retrieved in the Ocean
Musk revealed on Tuesday night that Starship would be recovered by a ship in the Indian Ocean. SpaceX routinely tries to recover Starship after splashdown in an effort to find out more about the flight by examining the spacecraft afterward.
We’re sending a ship out to recover Starship https://t.co/fUqUZTITO9
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 28, 2026
This helps engineers find out more about why things might have happened, allows them to examine any potential damage or anomalies that might have occurred, and increases the chances of an even more successful flight next time thanks to the additional information recovered.
Ship Could Have Been Caught by Tower Arms, Musk claims
Musk has already indicated that SpaceX will plan to attempt a catch of Starship with the 14th test flight. While this would be a major accomplishment, it would be an expected next step, considering the fact that the Super Heavy Booster has already been caught by the chopsticks on numerous occasions.
The ship landing was precise, meaning that it would have been caught by the tower arms https://t.co/6nbNrRfX9P
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 29, 2026
A ship catch would be a great indication of where SpaceX stands in terms of reusability and launch cadence. A successful catch with relatively no incidents would be a good sign that SpaceX is nearing a more frequent launch of Starship, but also that the reusability of the massive rocket would be something many would expect in the near future.
It is a necessity to make life multiplanetary.
Elon Musk has updated his timeline for when humans will walk on Mars and for when ships will simply get there.
The objective of getting to Mars has been one of Musk’s biggest goals since becoming a serial entrepreneur and realizing that time on Earth is limited. Musk has said several times he hopes to die on Mars, and not by impact.
Musk now believes that people will be on Mars in “roughly 5 to 7 years.” He said that a Mars lander will get there “a few years sooner.”
People on Mars in roughly 5 to 7 years.
Mars lander a few years sooner.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 29, 2026
The response from Musk comes after NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said that SpaceX’s biggest priority is the Moon and not Mars. Because of this, Isaacman conceded that he believes nuclear power and propulsion investments will provide “potentially the pathway with the fewest miracles required to put four people on Mars in the next 10 to 15 years.”
Of course, this is what NASA can do through taxpayer funding and nuclear investments, he added.
Musk’s grand ambitions are much more optimistic than most, and it is certainly a double-edged sword. This is not the first time timelines for Mars have been somewhat lofty, especially to those normal thinkers like you and me, not super geniuses like Musk.
In fact, the SpaceX and Tesla frontman has said on at least a dozen occasions that we could be on Mars in the coming years. Musk said 2020 would be the big year as early as 2009. In 2020, he was “highly confident” of a landing in 2026, and had even said 2024 in a best-case scenario.
The point is, the range has varied, and it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll get there. This latest adjustment to the timeline is typical of Musk, and while the Moon has seemingly taken priority over Mars, it is still worth mentioning that the ultimate goal is to make life multiplanetary, and it starts potentially with the Red Planet.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) got an absolutely crazy price target rating from Raymond James after the company experienced a tough first few weeks following its Initial Public Offering (IPO).
Despite the tumultuous start, SpaceX has plenty of believers, and the company’s massively successful Starship launch last Friday, its 13th test flight of the massive rocket, went so smoothly that Raymond James analysts pushed its price target on the company to roughly 7 times its current trading level.
SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before
The firm officially put a “Strong Buy” rating and an $800 price target on the stock. It currently trades at around $113. Its all-time high is $225.64, reaching this trading level shortly after shares first went public.
Raymond James’ price target is tied to the firm’s confidence after Starship’s 13th test flight. Analysts at the firm said it was an incremental step that reduces engineering risks, citing the widely successful heat shield test that CEO Elon Musk recently detailed, the smooth deployment of Starlink V3 satellites, and a successful in-space engine relight.
SpaceX also managed to see Starship splash down safely in the Indian Ocean, while the Super Heavy Booster fell down to the Gulf of America with no incidents.
It is interesting to see these launches have such a tremendous impact on the stock and what investors think of it. After SpaceX initially delayed the Starship launch last week, shares fell tremendously. Most probably did not realize that the stand-down is a standard practice, especially if everything is not perfect.
The mission was initially aborted due to an issue with Raptor engines. This was resolved, and Starship launched last Friday after another delay on Thursday, which was caused by weather.
Now that analysts have seen what SpaceX launches are capable of and how impressive the feat is, firms are adjusting their price targets accordingly, making it known that they have high expectations for the space exploration company.
Elon Musk sheds two new bits of detail on Starship after 13th test launch
Elon Musk updates the SpaceX timeline for Mars
