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SpaceX’s next West Coast Starlink launch likely delayed as drone ship returns to port

Pictured here in October 2020, drone ship OCISLY will likely have to wait a bit longer for its next West Coast booster recovery. (Richard Angle)

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Update: Less than a day after departing Port of Long Beach, California, SpaceX drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) has turned around and appears to be on its way back, signaling a last-minute delay for the company’s second West Coast Starlink launch.

Normally, SpaceX doesn’t halt drone ship trips downrange for just a day or two of launch delays, suggesting that Starlink 2-3 could slip at least several days beyond its current October 17th and 18th target and backup dates.

A pair of notices to mariners (NTMs) published earlier this week reveal that SpaceX could conduct its second West Coast Starlink launch as early as Sunday, October 17th.

Used to delineate certain regions mariners should temporarily avoid or heed caution in, NTMs – while cryptic – often reveal roughly when a rocket launch or spacecraft reentry is expected to occur days or weeks before NASA, the US military, or any companies involved announce an official target. That now appears to be the case for SpaceX’s “Starlink Group 2-3” mission, which is set to be the second dedicated launch of polar Starlink satellites. Presumably identical to Starlink 2-1, which successfully launched on a Falcon 9 rocket on September 14th, Starlink 2-3 will likely carry another 51 upgraded Starlink V1.5 satellites.

Each fitted with several custom SpaceX-built lasers known as optical interlinks or OILs, Starlink Group 2 satellites will (roughly) orbit Earth’s poles instead of its equator and will eventually use those lasers to allow the rest of the Starlink constellation to route user communications entirely in space. Whereas current Starlink internet users must live within a few hundred miles of a SpaceX ground station to access the network, a constellation of satellites with laser interlinks could serve anyone on Earth – practically independent of ground station location – by routing user communications through any number of laser-linked satellites.

Once all ~1600 Starlink V1.0 satellites are replaced with V1.5 spacecraft, SpaceX will have effectively created a second internet independent of the millions of miles of copper and fiber optic cables that nearly all modern users rely on. Of course, SpaceX’s Starlink V1.5 and V2.0+ constellation will mainly function as an extension of that existing network, but it will allow unprecedented feats of routing – latency that no wired network can physically match, in other words.

The primary draw for a laser-linked constellation, though, is the ability to connect users to the internet almost regardless of location. On top of hundreds of millions of rural and underserved or unserved customers worldwide, even including those trapped inside restrictive national ‘firewalls,’ an interlinked constellation will allow SpaceX to deliver unprecedentedly high-quality connectivity to ships, planes, trains, and road vehicles. Currently only served by mediocre and marginally reliable geostationary providers at great cost, disrupting those captive markets with a service as many leagues above as Starlink could singlehandedly secure SpaceX billions of dollars of annual revenue.

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Soon after the notices to mariners appeared, Next Spacefight’s Michael Baylor confirmed that the Starlink 2-3 mission is scheduled to launch out of Vandenberg Air/Space Force Base no earlier than (NET) 10:34 am PDT (UTC-7) on Sunday, October 17th. The launch window is open for one hour and, like Starlink 2-1, will likely involve a Falcon 9 booster landing attempt a few hundred miles downrange on drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY).

It remains to be seen which Falcon booster is assigned to the launch or if SpaceX will static fire it several days before.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk sheds two new bits of detail on Starship after 13th test launch

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Credit: SpaceX

Elon Musk shed two new bits of detail on Starship following its 13th test launch, which was an overwhelming success.

SpaceX launched Starship for the 13th time last Friday after two delays: one on Monday when several Raptor engines did not ignite, and another on Thursday due to unfavorable weather conditions in Starbase, Texas.

The launch was overwhelmingly successful. SpaceX was able to complete a necessary test of the heat shield tiles by increasing the acceleration of Starship from launch throughout the flight; 20 Starlink v3 satellites were released with no issue; the Super Heavy Booster landed safely in the Gulf of America, Ship successfully reignited engines while in space; and it also splashed down without incident in the Indian Ocean.

SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before

Nevertheless, more details are coming out about Starship, and Musk is doing the talking.

Starship Will Be Retrieved in the Ocean

Musk revealed on Tuesday night that Starship would be recovered by a ship in the Indian Ocean. SpaceX routinely tries to recover Starship after splashdown in an effort to find out more about the flight by examining the spacecraft afterward.

This helps engineers find out more about why things might have happened, allows them to examine any potential damage or anomalies that might have occurred, and increases the chances of an even more successful flight next time thanks to the additional information recovered.

Ship Could Have Been Caught by Tower Arms, Musk claims

Musk has already indicated that SpaceX will plan to attempt a catch of Starship with the 14th test flight. While this would be a major accomplishment, it would be an expected next step, considering the fact that the Super Heavy Booster has already been caught by the chopsticks on numerous occasions.

A ship catch would be a great indication of where SpaceX stands in terms of reusability and launch cadence. A successful catch with relatively no incidents would be a good sign that SpaceX is nearing a more frequent launch of Starship, but also that the reusability of the massive rocket would be something many would expect in the near future.

It is a necessity to make life multiplanetary.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk updates the SpaceX timeline for Mars

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Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX
Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX

Elon Musk has updated his timeline for when humans will walk on Mars and for when ships will simply get there.

The objective of getting to Mars has been one of Musk’s biggest goals since becoming a serial entrepreneur and realizing that time on Earth is limited. Musk has said several times he hopes to die on Mars, and not by impact.

Musk now believes that people will be on Mars in “roughly 5 to 7 years.” He said that a Mars lander will get there “a few years sooner.”

The response from Musk comes after NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said that SpaceX’s biggest priority is the Moon and not Mars. Because of this, Isaacman conceded that he believes nuclear power and propulsion investments will provide “potentially the pathway with the fewest miracles required to put four people on Mars in the next 10 to 15 years.”

Of course, this is what NASA can do through taxpayer funding and nuclear investments, he added.

Musk’s grand ambitions are much more optimistic than most, and it is certainly a double-edged sword. This is not the first time timelines for Mars have been somewhat lofty, especially to those normal thinkers like you and me, not super geniuses like Musk.

SpaceX Board has set a Mars bonus for Elon Musk

In fact, the SpaceX and Tesla frontman has said on at least a dozen occasions that we could be on Mars in the coming years. Musk said 2020 would be the big year as early as 2009. In 2020, he was “highly confident” of a landing in 2026, and had even said 2024 in a best-case scenario.

The point is, the range has varied, and it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll get there. This latest adjustment to the timeline is typical of Musk, and while the Moon has seemingly taken priority over Mars, it is still worth mentioning that the ultimate goal is to make life multiplanetary, and it starts potentially with the Red Planet.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX gets an absolutely crazy price target after rough IPO

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) got an absolutely crazy price target rating from Raymond James after the company experienced a tough first few weeks following its Initial Public Offering (IPO).

Despite the tumultuous start, SpaceX has plenty of believers, and the company’s massively successful Starship launch last Friday, its 13th test flight of the massive rocket, went so smoothly that Raymond James analysts pushed its price target on the company to roughly 7 times its current trading level.

SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before

The firm officially put a “Strong Buy” rating and an $800 price target on the stock. It currently trades at around $113. Its all-time high is $225.64, reaching this trading level shortly after shares first went public.

Raymond James’ price target is tied to the firm’s confidence after Starship’s 13th test flight. Analysts at the firm said it was an incremental step that reduces engineering risks, citing the widely successful heat shield test that CEO Elon Musk recently detailed, the smooth deployment of Starlink V3 satellites, and a successful in-space engine relight.

SpaceX also managed to see Starship splash down safely in the Indian Ocean, while the Super Heavy Booster fell down to the Gulf of America with no incidents.

It is interesting to see these launches have such a tremendous impact on the stock and what investors think of it. After SpaceX initially delayed the Starship launch last week, shares fell tremendously. Most probably did not realize that the stand-down is a standard practice, especially if everything is not perfect.

The mission was initially aborted due to an issue with Raptor engines. This was resolved, and Starship launched last Friday after another delay on Thursday, which was caused by weather.

Now that analysts have seen what SpaceX launches are capable of and how impressive the feat is, firms are adjusting their price targets accordingly, making it known that they have high expectations for the space exploration company.

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