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SpaceX ready for one more mission before Falcon Heavy’s maiden launch

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Set to be the nightcap of relatively slow January for SpaceX, the rocket company is nearing the end of preparations for the launch of a communications satellite co-owned by SES and the government of Luxembourg, known as GovSat-1/SES-16. Scheduled to lift off no earlier than 4:25PM EST (2125 GMT) on Tuesday, January 30, the launch will continue SES’ tradition of flying aboard reused SpaceX rockets, with the ~4000 kg communication satellite expected to be carried into orbit by Falcon 9 B1032 (Booster #32), a booster that first flew during the May 2017 launch of the National Reconnaissance Office’s (NRO) classified NROL-76 spacecraft.

A panorama of LC-40 ahead of its return to flight, the CRS-13 Cargo Dragon mission. The same pad will host GovSat-1 in just over 24 hours. (Tom Cross/Teslarati)

Following an incredible six flight-proven Falcon 9 launches in 2017, the very first year SpaceX began flying reused rockets, GovSat-1 will mark the first of many, many additional flight-proven launches to come in 2018. Even before the inaugural flights of the purpose-built, highly reusable Block 5 of Falcon 9, currently slated for sometime in the next several months, SpaceX is expected to conduct a flurry of flight-proven launches as it wears down its stock of soon-to-be-outdated rockets of the Block 3 and 4 varieties. Educated estimates place the number of reused launches at around five between February and April 2018, six if Falcon Heavy is included (both side boosters are flight-proven). A minimum of six more reused Falcon 9s are then expected to fly between May and the end of 2018, and this almost certainly does not account for the imminent introduction of Block 5.

It is reasonable to assume that the first successful flights of Falcon 9 Block 5 and first several manufactured cores will be followed only months later by a phase change towards reusability. This shift will likely see SpaceX move to a mode of operations that strongly encourages and subsidizes reused boosters as the default option for customers, with flights aboard new cores a comparatively rare alternative reserved only for unique holdouts like NASA, the USAF, and NRO.

Somewhat sadly, the inherent engineering limits of older versions of Falcon 9 and the imminent introduction of Block 5 mean that SpaceX has less and less of a need to recover flight proven boosters that have no hope of being cost-effectively refurbished and conducting additional flights. This attitude was highlighted with the fourth launch of ten Iridium NEXT satellites in late December 2017, which saw a flight-proven Falcon 9 conduct a controlled ocean ditch after separating from the second stage. While crew aboard at least one of SpaceX’s fleet of recovery vessels were tasked with attempting to recover any accessible floating debris after the first stage ditched into the ocean, it was very much intentionally expended, and SpaceX’s West coast drone ship never left port. GovSat-1 will see this intentional practice of expending recoverable boosters continue – Falcon 9 B1032 is also expected to ditch into the ocean, with no recovery attempt being made aboard the drone ship Of Course I Still Love You.

Nevertheless, SpaceX-leased recovery vessels GO Quest and GO Searcher were both seen leaving Port Canaveral, Florida yesterday, presumably in order to attempt the recovery of either floating debris from the first stage and/or the rocket’s payload fairing, a milestone that SpaceX is still striving to reach.

Follow along live as launch photographer Tom Cross and I cover these exciting proceedings as close to live as possible. Tom will be heading to Cape Canaveral Air Force Station early tomorrow morning in order to set up his remote cameras to capture yet another beautiful SpaceX launch.

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Eric Ralph Twitter

 

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk sheds two new bits of detail on Starship after 13th test launch

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Credit: SpaceX

Elon Musk shed two new bits of detail on Starship following its 13th test launch, which was an overwhelming success.

SpaceX launched Starship for the 13th time last Friday after two delays: one on Monday when several Raptor engines did not ignite, and another on Thursday due to unfavorable weather conditions in Starbase, Texas.

The launch was overwhelmingly successful. SpaceX was able to complete a necessary test of the heat shield tiles by increasing the acceleration of Starship from launch throughout the flight; 20 Starlink v3 satellites were released with no issue; the Super Heavy Booster landed safely in the Gulf of America, Ship successfully reignited engines while in space; and it also splashed down without incident in the Indian Ocean.

SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before

Nevertheless, more details are coming out about Starship, and Musk is doing the talking.

Starship Will Be Retrieved in the Ocean

Musk revealed on Tuesday night that Starship would be recovered by a ship in the Indian Ocean. SpaceX routinely tries to recover Starship after splashdown in an effort to find out more about the flight by examining the spacecraft afterward.

This helps engineers find out more about why things might have happened, allows them to examine any potential damage or anomalies that might have occurred, and increases the chances of an even more successful flight next time thanks to the additional information recovered.

Ship Could Have Been Caught by Tower Arms, Musk claims

Musk has already indicated that SpaceX will plan to attempt a catch of Starship with the 14th test flight. While this would be a major accomplishment, it would be an expected next step, considering the fact that the Super Heavy Booster has already been caught by the chopsticks on numerous occasions.

A ship catch would be a great indication of where SpaceX stands in terms of reusability and launch cadence. A successful catch with relatively no incidents would be a good sign that SpaceX is nearing a more frequent launch of Starship, but also that the reusability of the massive rocket would be something many would expect in the near future.

It is a necessity to make life multiplanetary.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk updates the SpaceX timeline for Mars

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Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX
Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX

Elon Musk has updated his timeline for when humans will walk on Mars and for when ships will simply get there.

The objective of getting to Mars has been one of Musk’s biggest goals since becoming a serial entrepreneur and realizing that time on Earth is limited. Musk has said several times he hopes to die on Mars, and not by impact.

Musk now believes that people will be on Mars in “roughly 5 to 7 years.” He said that a Mars lander will get there “a few years sooner.”

The response from Musk comes after NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said that SpaceX’s biggest priority is the Moon and not Mars. Because of this, Isaacman conceded that he believes nuclear power and propulsion investments will provide “potentially the pathway with the fewest miracles required to put four people on Mars in the next 10 to 15 years.”

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Of course, this is what NASA can do through taxpayer funding and nuclear investments, he added.

Musk’s grand ambitions are much more optimistic than most, and it is certainly a double-edged sword. This is not the first time timelines for Mars have been somewhat lofty, especially to those normal thinkers like you and me, not super geniuses like Musk.

SpaceX Board has set a Mars bonus for Elon Musk

In fact, the SpaceX and Tesla frontman has said on at least a dozen occasions that we could be on Mars in the coming years. Musk said 2020 would be the big year as early as 2009. In 2020, he was “highly confident” of a landing in 2026, and had even said 2024 in a best-case scenario.

The point is, the range has varied, and it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll get there. This latest adjustment to the timeline is typical of Musk, and while the Moon has seemingly taken priority over Mars, it is still worth mentioning that the ultimate goal is to make life multiplanetary, and it starts potentially with the Red Planet.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX gets an absolutely crazy price target after rough IPO

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) got an absolutely crazy price target rating from Raymond James after the company experienced a tough first few weeks following its Initial Public Offering (IPO).

Despite the tumultuous start, SpaceX has plenty of believers, and the company’s massively successful Starship launch last Friday, its 13th test flight of the massive rocket, went so smoothly that Raymond James analysts pushed its price target on the company to roughly 7 times its current trading level.

SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before

The firm officially put a “Strong Buy” rating and an $800 price target on the stock. It currently trades at around $113. Its all-time high is $225.64, reaching this trading level shortly after shares first went public.

Raymond James’ price target is tied to the firm’s confidence after Starship’s 13th test flight. Analysts at the firm said it was an incremental step that reduces engineering risks, citing the widely successful heat shield test that CEO Elon Musk recently detailed, the smooth deployment of Starlink V3 satellites, and a successful in-space engine relight.

SpaceX also managed to see Starship splash down safely in the Indian Ocean, while the Super Heavy Booster fell down to the Gulf of America with no incidents.

It is interesting to see these launches have such a tremendous impact on the stock and what investors think of it. After SpaceX initially delayed the Starship launch last week, shares fell tremendously. Most probably did not realize that the stand-down is a standard practice, especially if everything is not perfect.

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The mission was initially aborted due to an issue with Raptor engines. This was resolved, and Starship launched last Friday after another delay on Thursday, which was caused by weather.

Now that analysts have seen what SpaceX launches are capable of and how impressive the feat is, firms are adjusting their price targets accordingly, making it known that they have high expectations for the space exploration company.

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