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SpaceX to launch five South Korean military satellites by 2025
South Korea is deepening its relationship with SpaceX with a contract to launch at least five military reconnaissance satellites on Falcon 9 rockets by the end of 2025.
Known as the “425 Project,” South Korea intends to operate its own small constellation of five new Earth observation satellites: four synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellites and one electro-optical infrared (EO/IR) satellite. All five would help ensure the near-continuous observation of sites of interest in North Korea, nominally allowing for new observations to be made at least every two hours. In a boon to South Korea’s aerospace industry, the country intends to domestically design and manufacture most or all aspects of those spacecraft. Developing domestic aerospace solutions has been a significant industrial priority for the country in recent years.
As a result, South Korea’s first stab at a domestic satellite constellation probably won’t produce record-breaking results. Publicly, the goal is to develop satellites with a maximum resolution of 0.3-0.5 meters (1-1.6 ft) per pixel – similar to the publicly established capabilities of most modern mid-sized Earth observation satellites. However, the classified capabilities of the US military and US spy agencies may offer several times that resolving power. South Korea is a close ally of the United States and likely benefits significantly from shared US intelligence. But it’s still no surprise that a country with such a belligerent neighbor would want to own and operate its own fleet of reconnaissance satellites and have the ability to independently produce its own spacecraft.
On top of working on those spacecraft, South Korea has also been developing a fully domestic orbital launch capability. The Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI) attempted to launch the first fully completed Korean Satellite Launch Vehicle II (KSLV-2) – also known as Nuri – in October 2021 but fell just short of orbit after its first and second stages performed nominally but its third stage ran into pressurization issues. Nuri is scheduled to return to flight as early as June 15th, 2022. Once operational, the South Korean rocket is designed to launch up to 2.6 tons (~5700 lb) to low Earth orbit (LEO) and 1.5 tons (~3300 lb) to a slightly higher sun-synchronous orbit (SSO).
South Korea’s decision to manifest its 425 Project satellites on SpaceX rockets thus raises some questions about South Korea’s confidence in – or plans to use – its own homegrown launch capabilities. Assuming Nuri more or less meets its performance goals and successfully reaches orbit during its second launch attempt in mid-2022, both of which seem plausible, the rocket would likely be more than capable of beginning operational launches no later than 2023. In fact, South Korea says that its EO/IR satellite – scheduled to launch first – will weigh around 800 kilograms (~1750 lb), making it a near-perfect fit for Nuri’s first operational launch. Such a small payload would give the rocket a large safety margin to account for any unexpected performance losses.
Instead, South Korea has decided to launch all five spacecraft on SpaceX rockets. SpaceX already has a solid relationship with the country: the company recently launched its Lockheed Martin-built ANASIS-II military communications satellite and is scheduled to launch KARI’s Korean Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO) – South Korea’s first mission beyond Earth orbit – no earlier than August 2022.
It’s unclear if SpaceX will launch South Korea’s ‘425’ satellites individually on dedicated Falcon 9s, as rideshare payloads alongside other paying customers, or – in the case of the four SAR satellites – in batches of two or four. KPLO will be a Falcon 9 rideshare payload, making it clear that South Korea is happy to exploit cost-effective rideshare launches – though that calculus may change for military payloads. Regardless, South Korea’s latest contract won’t hurt SpaceX’s commercial manifest, which currently includes around 75 publicly-acknowledged Falcon launches.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
