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SpaceX Starlink launch ambitions just saved a space station resupply mission from bigger delays

Thanks to SpaceX's ambitious 2020 launch cadence, the latest Cargo Dragon mission has only been delayed a few days by the need to replace the rocket's second stage. (Richard Angle)

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SpaceX’s ambitious 2020 Starlink launch goals have unintentionally saved a Cargo Dragon spacecraft mission from much longer delays after a major part of its Falcon 9 rocket had to be replaced at the last second.

Known as SpaceX’s 20th NASA Commercial Resupply Services (CRS-20) mission, SpaceX’s Cargo Dragon spacecraft was initially scheduled to launch supplies to the International Space Station (ISS) as early as March 2nd, 2020, a date that recently slipped four days to 11:50 pm EDT (04:50 UTC), March 6th. Simultaneously, a separate Falcon 9 Starlink mission – assigned to a different launch pad – found itself delayed from March 4th to March 11th.

A day or so after news of the CRS-20 launch delay first broke, NASA published a blog post noting that SpaceX had taken the extraordinary step of fully replacing the mission’s Falcon 9 second stage, the part of the rocket (pictured underneath Dragon in the photo above) tasked with taking payloads from the edge of space into Earth orbit (or beyond). Triggered by a faulty component in its space-optimized Merlin Vacuum engine, the fact that SpaceX chose to replace the upper stage and still only delayed CRS-20’s launch by four days suggests that its ambitious Starlink launch plans are already creating positive side effects for commercial customers.

 
The last Cargo Dragon (Dragon 1) capsule expected to launch was likely shipped to Florida earlier this month. (SpaceX)

As of late, multi-day hardware-related launch delays have been rather rare for SpaceX, who has instead suffered numerous weather-related scrubs over the course of completing its Fall 2019 and Winter 2020 launch manifest. SpaceX’s February 17th Starlink-4 mission did suffer a minor second stage valve-related delay that was fixed in about 24 hours, but things have otherwise been quite smooth for Falcon 9.

Given all that goes into building and testing Falcon 9 second stages, there are very few good explanations (aside from pure luck) that would allow for a given SpaceX launch to entirely replace its assigned second stage a week before liftoff and only slip a handful of days. Nevertheless, with CRS-20, SpaceX is attempting to do exactly that.

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“SpaceX identified a valve motor on the second stage engine behaving not as expected and determined the safest and most expedient path to launch is to utilize the next second stage in line that was already at the Cape and ready for flight. The new second stage has already completed the same preflight inspections with all hardware behaving as expected. The updated target launch date provides the time required to complete preflight integration and final checkouts.”

NASA.gov — February 25th, 2020

A Falcon 9 second stage coasting in orbit during SpaceX’s May 2019 Starlink v0.9 mission. (SpaceX)
Falcon 9 has won a contract launch what will likely be a rideshare mission - featuring the Nova C Moon lander - in July 2021. (SpaceX)
A render of a Falcon second stage’s Merlin Vacuum (MVac) engine burning towards orbit as its payload fairing is jettisoned. (SpaceX)

The specific lead times SpaceX’s Falcon rocket family parts require is almost totally unknown but it’s safe to say that the process of building a Falcon upper stage from scratch, performing acceptance testing in Texas, and shipping said stage to the launch pad takes months from start to finish. For SpaceX to be able to attempt to minimize CRS-20’s delays to just four days while still fully swapping out its upper stage, the company would have quite literally had to have had another Falcon stage just sitting around in Florida.

As it turns out, per NASA’s official statement, that is precisely what transpired. A separate second stage was already in Florida and “ready for flight”, giving SpaceX the luxury of selecting the safest option theoretically available. Beyond the hardware already being ready to go in Florida, the stage reassignment almost certainly also hinged upon the mission it was assigned to being somewhat nonessential – a label that SpaceX would be hard-pressed to affix to any of its customers’ launches. An internal Starlink mission, however, would be a perfect opportunity, allowing SpaceX to avoid both picking favorites and seriously impacting (aside from the ~4-day CRS-20 delay) its paying customers.

Pictured landing in July 2019 after its second launch, Falcon 9 booster B1056 - now on its fourth launch - is set to break a crucial reusability record. (SpaceX)
Falcon 9 booster B1059.2 is expected to attempt SpaceX’s first land landing zone recovery of 2020 after launching CRS-20. (SpaceX)

To be clear, SpaceX was thus able to swap out CRS-20’s upper stage at the last second with only a minor schedule impact almost exclusively because of it’s ambitious plans for 20-24 Starlink launches this year. If the company wasn’t pursuing a more than biweekly 2020 launch cadence, it’s much more likely that CRS-20 would have had to make do with its second stage or wait for a new one to be built, potentially delaying the launch by one or two weeks, if not longer.

In simple terms, the launch cadence SpaceX is targeting (and needs) for its Starlink constellation is already exhibiting signs of a future where its high-performance orbital-class rockets have been almost entirely commodified.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla Model Y L might not come to the U.S., and it’s a missed opportunity

The Model Y L has a variety of big changes that would be advantageous for the U.S. market, including a longer wheelbase, more comfortable seats, a third row that appears to be more spacious than Tesla’s six-seat Model Y that it previously offered, B-Pillar vents for rear passengers, and more.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla’s new Model Y L might not come to the U.S., CEO Elon Musk said this morning.

It’s a missed opportunity, and I’m not the only one who feels this way.

In the past, I have personally written a handful of articles about what Tesla owners have been wanting in the United States: a full-sized SUV, or at least a vehicle that is larger than the Model Y but less of a crossover than the Model X.

Tesla is missing one type of vehicle in its lineup and fans want it fast

The only thing that Tesla has announced that even slightly matches this sort of idea is the Robovan, which is, optimistically, several years off because it lacks a steering wheel and pedals and will require Full Self-Driving to be fully autonomous.

Even if Tesla launches FSD next year, it will take a year or two to figure out manufacturing, go through regulatory hurdles with the EPA, and eventually enter mass production for customers.

The Model Y L has a variety of big changes that would be advantageous for the U.S. market, including a longer wheelbase, more comfortable seats, a third row that appears to be more spacious than Tesla’s six-seat Model Y that it previously offered, B-Pillar vents for rear passengers, and more.

However, Musk said it won’t come to the U.S. until next year, and that it “might not ever, given the advent of self-driving in America.”

To be blunt, I’m not sure if I truly believe that Musk thinks the Model Y L won’t come to the U.S. Some believe he said this to not Osborne Effect Model Y sales here, which seems more likely than anything.

Tesla Model Y L gets disappointingly far production date in the United States

People have been buying the Model Y for two years more than any other car in the world. To act as if many families would not appreciate the extra space seems very strange; a big complaint with the Model Y is that it simply does not fit larger families.

If you have four kids, you’re forced into the Model X, which might be too expensive for some families, as it starts at $79,990.

While Tesla’s focus is undoubtedly on autonomy, it is important to remember that some people still really enjoy the act of driving their cars. Tesla has worked very hard to create a fun and sporty driving experience, especially in the new Model Y. Many consumers, including myself, like to take advantage of that.

Autonomy might eventually take over human driving completely, but in the near term, it does not seem as if that is the case. Even if someone were interested in never driving again, this longer and more spacious Model Y L would be an ideal option for American families that need the room for at least six passengers.

Quite a few big names in the Tesla community share this sentiment:

More than likely, Musk does not want to announce a more attractive option than the current Model Y, as many consumers would likely wait a year or two for the L in an effort to have more space.

In all honesty, I see the Model Y L coming to the United States, as it truly fits the bill as an ideal car for the modern American family.

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Elon Musk

Tesla’s Elon Musk shares optimistic teaser about FSD V14: “Feels sentient”

FSD V14 is arguably the second biggest update to Tesla AI/Autopilot after the release of V12, Musk wrote.

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Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East/X

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has provided a rather exciting teaser about the capabilities of Full Self-Driving’s (FSD) upcoming V14 update. 

As per Musk, V14 is arguably the second biggest update to Tesla AI/Autopilot after the release of V12, which started its initial rollout to Tesla employees way back November 2023.

Tesla FSD V14

Elon Musk has been teasing the capabilities of FSD V14 in recent weeks. Earlier this month, the CEO shared that FSD V14 will feature a 10X higher parameter count, and it will also nag drivers significantly less than the system’s current iteration. While FSD V14 is not Unsupervised FSD, which is being used in the Austin Robotaxi pilot, it is expected to be a significant improvement nonetheless.

“The FSD release in about 6 weeks will be a dramatic gain with a 10X higher parameter count and many other improvements. It’s going through training & testing now. Once we confirm real-world safety of FSD 14, which we think will be amazing, the car will nag you much less,” Musk wrote in his post.

“Feels sentient”

Musk recently shared some more details about FSD V14 on X. In response to a video of a William Blair analyst who mentioned that Tesla’s Robotaxi service felt a lot more like a person was driving it compared to Waymo’s robotic maneuvers, Musk noted that “Version 14 of Tesla self-driving fells sentient.”

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Musk also clarified that the system that the William Blair analyst experienced was Version 13, so the system’s performance will definitely get even better. “He was just on version 13. Version 14 is the second biggest update to Tesla AI/Autopilot ever after V12. It feels alive,” Musk wrote in his post.

Musk’s comments bode well for the rollout of FSD V14. So far, FSD has reached a point where drivers and passengers have commented that the system already operates a vehicle in a very cautious and humanlike manner. Having a system that feels “sentient,” as the CEO noted, would most definitely be game-changing.

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Tesla Model Y L attracts crowds across China stores

The Tesla Model Y L is shaping up to be a big hit in China.

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Credit: @thaichiminh1907/X

Tesla has officially rolled out the Model Y L, a six-seat variant of its best-selling SUV, across all showrooms in China, and it is getting a lot of attention from potential buyers.

Images and videos from Tesla stores in China show crowds of people checking out the recently released extended wheelbase all-electric crossover.

Model Y L details

The vehicle, which carries a starting price of RMB 339,000 ($47,180), went live in Tesla China’s configurator this week. Deliveries are scheduled to begin in September, and early media reviews have already been released following the lifting of an embargo.

Unlike a full model refresh, the Model Y L is positioned as a new variant within the existing Model Y lineup. It joins the five-seat rear-wheel drive (RWD) and long-range all-wheel drive (AWD) Model Y variants currently available in China.

The six-seat Model Y L features dual-motor all-wheel drive, a 0–100 km/h time of 4.5 seconds, and an 82.0-kWh battery pack from LG Energy Solution. Its CLTC-rated range reaches 751 km, the highest among Tesla’s Model Y trims.

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So far, the reception to the Model Y L appears to be very warm, with photos and videos of stores in locations such as Shanghai and Shenyang showing numerous people checking out the recently released vehicle. Reports from industry watchers in China also suggest that Tesla received about 35,000 orders for the Model Y L on its first day of release.

Market backdrop

The timing of the Model Y L’s release comes as Tesla faces headwinds in China’s competitive SUV segment. Between January and July, Model Y retail sales in the country reached 202,257 units, a 17.15 percent decline compared to the same period last year, according to data cited by CNEVPost. It should be noted, however, that a good portion of this decline was due to the retooling of Tesla’s factories to make way for the new Model Y.

Despite the slowdown, the Model Y remains one of Tesla’s strongest performers globally. By introducing a higher-range, six-seat option, Tesla appears to be positioning the Model Y L as a way to boost demand and appeal to new buyers in a market that was previously only accessible to the much more expensive Model X.

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