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SpaceX go for Starlink launch, landing as ULA rocket delays persist

Falcon 9 B1058 (pictured here on July 20th) is scheduled to launch Starlink-12 later this morning. (Richard Angle)

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SpaceX is on track for Falcon 9’s latest Starlink launch and landing later today as delays continue to hamper a United Launch Alliance (ULA) rocket meant to lift off more than a month ago.

In fact, an almost identical scenario played out a month ago as SpaceX and ULA coincidentally aligned to attempt two launches less than a day apart. The pad hardware supporting ULA’s Delta IV Heavy NROL-44 mission suffered several delays on August 26th and 27th, followed by a dramatic post-ignition launch abort on August 29th. Throughout, SpaceX effectively had to sit on its hands and wait for permission to launch Falcon 9’s SAOCOM 1B mission. Historically, it’s been safe to assume that a ULA mission – particularly one like NROL-44 – would unilaterally take precedence over a SpaceX launch, forcing the company to wait indefinitely until the range was clear.

Instead, in a major twist, SpaceX received permission to launch – and ultimately did launch – SAOCOM 1B on August 30th with ULA’s Delta IV Heavy and its multibillion-dollar NROL-44 payload still on the launch pad. In essence, one or several stakeholders in the military mission have become confident enough in the reliability of SpaceX’s rockets to no longer perceive a nearby Falcon launch as a major risk. Now, just a month after the development, SpaceX appears to be on track to repeat the feat.

Falcon 9 booster B1058 will support Starlink-12 on its third flight. (Richard Angle)

Three days after SAOCOM 1B lifted off from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Launch Complex 40 (LC-40), a separate Falcon 9 rocket launched SpaceX’s 12th Starlink mission (Starlink-11) from Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Launch Complex 39A (Pad 39A). Starlink-12 is also scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) 10:22 am EDT (14:22 UTC), September 28th from Pad 39A, a bit less than six miles (9.5 km) north of the ULA rocket and NROL-44 satellite at LC-37.

SAOCOM 1B was such a surprise because the unique southerly trajectory saw Falcon 9 fly almost directly above LC-37, meaning that an in-flight failure could have very likely showered ULA’s pad, rocket, and payload with debris. LC-40, however, is just a little over two miles (3.5 km) north of LC-37. In other words, a Starlink launch heading northeast from Pad 39A is clearly of little concern to ULA or the NROL-44 launch customer, particularly after SAOCOM 1B was allowed to launch under far riskier conditions.

Falcon 9 B1060 lifts off for the first time with the US military’s GPS III SV03 satellite. (Richard Angle)

Instead, the real test of the SAOCOM 1B precedent will come when SpaceX prepares for the mission scheduled after Starlink-12 – the company’s third launch of an upgraded GPS III satellite (SV04) for the US military. As of now, ULA’s next NROL-44 launch attempt is tentatively scheduled around midnight (~04:00 UTC) on September 29th. Shortly thereafter, Falcon 9 is scheduled to launch GPS III SV04 (from LC-40) as early as 9:55 pm EDT (01:55 UTC) that same day.

Given the sheer number of difficulties ULA has had with LC-37 pad systems on this launch attempt, it’s reasonable to assume that NROL-44 will slip beyond September 29th. If that happens, stakeholders will once again have to decide if SpaceX can launch two miles to the north or has to wait for ULA. Either way, tune in tomorrow morning to catch SpaceX’s Starlink-12 launch webcast. Weather at Kennedy Space Center is currently 60% go for launch.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla just got a weird price target boost from a notable bear

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Credit: Tesla Manufacturing

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a weird price target boost from a notable bear just a day after it announced its strongest quarter in terms of vehicle deliveries and energy deployments.

JPMorgan raised its price target on Tesla shares from $115 to $150. It maintained its ‘Underweight’ rating on the stock.

Despite Tesla reporting 497,099 deliveries, about 12 percent above the 443,000 anticipated from the consensus, JPMorgan is still skeptical that the company can keep up its momentum, stating most of its Q3 strength came from leaning on the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which expired on September 30.

Tesla hits record vehicle deliveries and energy deployments in Q3 2025

The firm said Tesla benefited from a “temporary stronger-than-expected industry-wide pull-forward” as the tax credit expired. It is no secret that consumers flocked to the company this past quarter to take advantage of the credit.

The bump will need to be solidified as the start of a continuing trend of strong vehicle deliveries, the firm said in a note to investors. Analysts said that one quarter of strength was “too soon to declare Tesla as having sustainably returned to growth in its core business.”

JPMorgan does not anticipate Tesla having strong showings with vehicle deliveries after Q4.

There are two distinct things that stick out with this note: the first is the lack of recognition of other parts of Tesla’s business, and the confusion that surrounds future quarters.

JPMorgan did not identify Tesla’s strength in autonomy, energy storage, or robotics, with autonomy and robotics being the main focuses of the company’s future. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi efforts are incredibly relevant and drive more impact moving forward than vehicle deliveries.

Additionally, the confusion surrounding future delivery numbers in quarters past Q3 is evident.

Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might

Tesla will receive some assistance from deliveries of vehicles that will reach customers in Q4, but will still qualify for the credit under the IRS’s revised rules. It will also likely introduce an affordable model this quarter, which should have a drastic impact on deliveries depending on pricing.

Tesla shares are trading at $422.40 at 2:35 p.m. on the East Coast.

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Tesla coding shows affordable model details, including potential price

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Credit: @tslaming | X

Coding within Tesla’s website appears to have potentially revealed some details of the affordable model it plans to launch, including its possible price.

Although these details are unconfirmed by the company, recent sightings of the vehicle have sparked significant speculation as to what it will offer.

Tesla said a few months back that it had already successfully built the first few test units of the affordable model. CEO Elon Musk revealed later that it would essentially be a stripped-down version of the Model Y with a handful of changes.

We had our first look at what those changes appear to be, as what is likely the new affordable model was spotted on roads near Gigafactory Texas yesterday. It is a Model Y body with some Model 3 features.

It lacks the light bar that the new Model Y has and instead equips headlights similar to those of the Model 3 “Highland.”

Affordable Tesla Model Y spotted without camouflage near Giga Texas

Other design changes appear to include no glass roof and new wheels. Some rumors have also indicated that Tesla plans to use a cheaper, textile interior, devoid of the flashy features that its other cars are equipped with, including no rear screen, no HEPA system, and manually adjustable second-row air vents.

However, coding within the Tesla website seemed to reveal some pretty significant details about the new affordable model, including its name, which differs from the E41 codename it was given, its price, and a complete list of features.

This was found by Tesla Newswire on X. Here’s what the coding showed for the car. Note that this was found in coding, and is not necessarily confirmation from Tesla regarding what it plans to offer:

  • Name – Model Y Standard
  • Price $39,990
  • Redesigned front fascia
  • Single-part headlights
  • Front bumper camera
  • No glass roof, noted as a “closed glass roof”
  • 18″ Aperture wheels
  • Manually adjustable steering wheel
  • Textile décor
  • 15.4″ front touchscreen
  • No second-row touchscreen
  • Manually adjustable air vents in the second row
  • No HEPA system
  • 75 cu. fu. cargo space

Here’s what the coding looked like:

Many believe these could be the specs and details of the new affordable model, but others think Tesla might be baiting the community. Tesla knows its fans well, and many of them are sharp enough to examine some of the core portions of its website, looking for clues.

The company is well aware that these breadcrumbs will be discovered, and could be putting anything to drive up interest and chatter about what it could release. It certainly seems as if the price tag is a tad high, which tends to push some skepticism about the coding.

However, we’ll take anything we can get at this point. It is important to note that this coding is not a confirmation of details from Tesla.

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Affordable Tesla Model Y spotted without camouflage near Giga Texas

The vehicle had clean lines and it looked sleek, though it was also notably simpler than the standard Model Y.

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Credit: Ryan Mable/X

The tea leaves seem to be pointing towards the imminent release of the highly anticipated affordable Tesla Model Y. This was hinted at in recent observations from notable Tesla influencers on social media, as well as a sighting of the vehicle without any camouflage.

The affordable Tesla uncovered

Sightings of the affordable Model Y have been abounding as of late, though details of the vehicle were still hidden by coverings on the vehicle. In a recent post on X from Firefly engineer Ryan Mable, however, noted Tesla influencer Sawyer Merritt has reportedly “spotted an uncovered cheaper Model Y variant” driving near Giga Texas. 

Several images of the uncovered vehicle were shared online. Based on the photos that were shared by Mable, the affordable Model Y seemed to feature a fascia that’s inspired by the Model 3 sedan. Its roof also looked blacked out. Overall, the vehicle had clean lines and it looked sleek, though it was also notably simpler than the standard Model Y.

Tesla influencer mystery

Interestingly enough, several Tesla influencers apart from Merritt posted that they were in Giga Texas. These included drone operator Joe Tegtmeyer, teardown specialist Sandy Munro, and reviewers Kyle Conner and Kim Java. These influencers have not provided any context behind their Giga Texas trip, though the fact that they were gathered on the site brought speculations that Tesla might have invited the group for a teaser or a private unveiling event of sorts.

It remains to be seen when the affordable Model Y would be made available, though conversations now are centered on the vehicle’s potential price. Previous reports suggested that the car might be priced just below $40,000, which many believe would result in very low sales, though some have also speculated that the affordable Model Y could be priced below $35,000, which would likely make it a strong seller.

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