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SpaceX wins FCC approval to launch first polar Starlink satellites amidst rideshare chaos
In a sign of the regulatory agency’s growing confidence in SpaceX, the FCC has rapidly approved a request to add ten Starlink satellites to an imminent Falcon 9 rideshare launch.
Known as Transporter-1 and originally scheduled to launch as early as December 2020 or January 14th, SpaceX delayed its first dedicated Smallsat Program mission to January 21st for unknown reasons last week. While there is no confirmed cause, any one of several recent events could have easily contributed to or fully caused the delay. In a rare ground processing failure, DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) revealed that two “risk reduction” technology demonstrator satellites were damaged on January 4th when their deployment mechanism was accidentally triggered during processing.
In other words, the two spacecraft may have been shot out of their dispensers by their spring-loaded deployment mechanisms, falling onto a processing bench or even off of the much taller payload stack. Meanwhile, on the very same day, space tug startup Momentus Space announced that it was removing its first Vigoride tug from Transporter-1 “for additional time…to secure FAA approval of…payloads.” Finally, once more on January 4th, SpaceX filed a request with the FCC to manifest and launch its first polar Starlink satellites to better take advantage of Transporter-1’s full capacity.
If launched, the ten spacecraft would be the first of several hundred planned polar Starlink satellites necessary for SpaceX’s massive internet constellation to serve some of the most remote communities on Earth. Referring to an orbit centered more around Earth’s north and south poles than its equator, the polar Starlink launch opportunity is available because SpaceX’s Transporter-1 mission – set to carry several dozen small satellites – is headed for a nearly polar “sun-synchronous orbit” (SSO).
For Starlink, sun-synchronous and polar orbit satellites will allow the constellation to serve customers and communities in high northern latitudes – possibly up to and including the Arctic and Antarctic once fully deployed.
SpaceX supported the US East Coast’s first polar launch in more than half a century in August 2020, effectively opening the same polar corridor that’s now allowing the company to launch Transporter-1 – and polar Starlink satellites – from the same pads it launches almost every other mission. It remains to be seen if SpaceX will one day perform dedicated polar Starlink launches from its West Coast launch pad – reactivated in November 2020 after spending almost a year and a half mothballed.
Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Starlink’s imminent polar launch debut is just how quickly both SpaceX and the FCC acted to make it happen. When SpaceX requested permission on January 4th, then just 10 days from the launch date, the historical odds of the FCC responding at all – let alone approving the request – in time were practically zero. Instead, the agency got back to SpaceX with a lengthy conditional approval (PDF) four days later. Although the FCC has yet to approve a request to move almost all of SpaceX’s 4,408 Phase 1 Starlink satellites to much lower orbits, the agency was apparently chomping at the bit to allow a limited trial at those lower orbits.
Dropped from an orbital altitude of ~1200 km (~750 mi) to 560 km (~350 mi), the ten Starlink satellites SpaceX now has permission to launch on Transporter-1 likely represent less than 20% of one polar ‘plane’ of Starlink satellites. In simpler terms, those ten satellites will only be capable of supporting a very limited test of polar Starlink internet, likely resulting in intermittent, unreliable coverage that won’t be viable for civil use until the FCC permits SpaceX to launch one or several full planes. Still, receiving approval to launch any number of satellites mere days after filing a request suggests that full FCC approval is a now question of “when,” not “if.”
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
