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SpaceX could provide satellite broadband service as early as 2020

SES-11's refurbished Falcon 9 seen on the morning of October 11th. (Tom Cross/Teslarati)

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Patricia Cooper, SpaceX’s VP of Satellite Government Affairs, provided a statement to the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation regarding SpaceX’s broadband satellite constellation ambitions.

Of note, Cooper reiterated on Wednesday that SpaceX intends to launch two prototype satellites into orbit within the next few months, and further suggested that an operational Starlink launch campaign is tentatively scheduled to begin in 2019. She also noted that the company’s initial ~4000 satellite constellation is meant to be launched over a space of five years, with limited service beginning in 2020 or 2021 once ~800 satellites have been placed in Low Earth Orbit (LEO).

While officially unconfirmed, FCC filings have for several months suggested that SpaceX was hoping to launch its first prototype communications satellites relatively soon, and Cooper’s comments indicate that those prototypes will be launched in late 2017 or early 2018. According to those documents, the reported orbit of SpaceX’s prototype Microsats fits perfectly with the planned orbit of PAZ, a Spanish Earth imaging satellite, which is scheduled for launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base, CA on January 30 2018.

SpaceX’s Starlink satellite constellation efforts could provide the company with valuable experience that can be applied around Mars. (unofficial logo by Eric Ralph)

More experimental satellites are likely to follow the launch of Microsat 2A/2B, although SpaceX’s aggressive technology development strategy could preclude future experimental launches if all goes as planned. If SpaceX hopes to begin operational launches by 2019 and launch ~800 satellites no later than 2021, the company will have to both settle on a finalized design and rapidly expand its satellite manufacturing capabilities in the near term.

Nevertheless, Cooper unambiguously stated that SpaceX is not currently pursuing outside investment for Starlink research and development. This suggests the company is relatively confident in its near and long term strategies for rolling out its satellite broadband constellation, despite its aggressive schedule.

OneWeb, also pursuing a large broadband constellation, plans to effectively mirror SpaceX’s current strategy approximately one year before, with initial launches in 2018 and limited service in 2019. As such, OneWeb’s success or lack-thereof will almost certainly inform SpaceX’s own strategy, although the technologies being pursued by both companies are somewhat different, as are the launch opportunities for each company.

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After launching SES-10, the first stage was recovered for a second time aboard the drone ship OCISLY. Reuse will be a major boon for SpaceX’s internal satellite efforts. (SpaceX)

As a vertically-integrated launch provider with considerable expertise in orbital rocketry, SpaceX undoubtedly has the upper hand over all competitors simply because it can quite literally launch at cost, bypassing the relative difficulty of procuring vast numbers of commercial launches. Combined with SpaceX’s ability to unilaterally fly on refurbished launch vehicles, it is all but impossible that competing broadband constellation providers can meet a similar level of cost efficiency while purchasing market-value launches.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla’s Elon Musk gives timeframe for FSD’s release in UAE

Provided that Musk’s timeframe proves accurate, FSD would be able to start saturating the Middle East, starting with the UAE, next year. 

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated on Monday that Full Self-Driving (Supervised) could launch in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as soon as January 2026. 

Provided that Musk’s timeframe proves accurate, FSD would be able to start saturating the Middle East, starting with the UAE, next year. 

Musk’s estimate

In a post on X, UAE-based political analyst Ahmed Sharif Al Amiri asked Musk when FSD would arrive in the country, quoting an earlier post where the CEO encouraged users to try out FSD for themselves. Musk responded directly to the analyst’s inquiry. 

“Hopefully, next month,” Musk wrote. The exchange attracted a lot of attention, with numerous X users sharing their excitement at the idea of FSD being brought to a new country. FSD (Supervised), after all, would likely allow hands-off highway driving, urban navigation, and parking under driver oversight in traffic-heavy cities such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

Musk’s comments about FSD’s arrival in the UAE were posted following his visit to the Middle Eastern country. Over the weekend, images were shared online of Musk meeting with UAE Defense Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, and Dubai Crown Prince HH Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed. Musk also posted a supportive message about the country, posting “UAE rocks!” on X.

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FSD recognition

FSD has been getting quite a lot of support from foreign media outlets. FSD (Supervised) earned high marks from Germany’s largest car magazine, Auto Bild, during a test in Berlin’s challenging urban environment. The demonstration highlighted the system’s ability to handle dense traffic, construction sites, pedestrian crossings, and narrow streets with smooth, confident decision-making.

Journalist Robin Hornig was particularly struck by FSD’s superior perception and tireless attention, stating: “Tesla FSD Supervised sees more than I do. It doesn’t get distracted and never gets tired. I like to think I’m a good driver, but I can’t match this system’s all-around vision. It’s at its best when both work together: my experience and the Tesla’s constant attention.” Only one intervention was needed when the system misread a route, showcasing its maturity while relying on vision-only sensors and over-the-air learning.

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Tesla quietly flexes FSD’s reliability amid Waymo blackout in San Francisco

“Tesla Robotaxis were unaffected by the SF power outage,” Musk wrote in his post.

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Tesla highlighted its Full Self-Driving (Supervised) system’s robustness this week by sharing dashcam footage of a vehicle in FSD navigating pitch-black San Francisco streets during the city’s widespread power outage. 

While Waymo’s robotaxis stalled and caused traffic jams, Tesla’s vision-only approach kept operating seamlessly without remote intervention. Elon Musk amplified the clip, highlighting the contrast between the two systems.

Tesla FSD handles total darkness

The @Tesla_AI account posted a video from a Model Y operating on FSD during San Francisco’s blackout. As could be seen in the video, streetlights, traffic signals, and surrounding illumination were completely out, but the vehicle drove confidently and cautiously, just like a proficient human driver.

Musk reposted the clip, adding context to reports of Waymo vehicles struggling in the same conditions. “Tesla Robotaxis were unaffected by the SF power outage,” Musk wrote in his post. 

Musk and the Tesla AI team’s posts highlight the idea that FSD operates a lot like any experienced human driver. Since the system does not rely on a variety of sensors and a complicated symphony of factors, vehicles could technically navigate challenging circumstances as they emerge. This definitely seemed to be the case in San Francisco.  

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Waymo’s blackout struggles

Waymo faced scrutiny after multiple self-driving Jaguar I-PACE taxis stopped functioning during the blackout, blocking lanes, causing traffic jams, and requiring manual retrieval. Videos shared during the power outage showed fleets of Waymo vehicles just stopping in the middle of the road, seemingly confused about what to do when the lights go out. 

In a comment, Waymo stated that its vehicles treat nonfunctional signals as four-way stops, but “the sheer scale of the outage led to instances where vehicles remained stationary longer than usual to confirm the state of the affected intersections. This contributed to traffic friction during the height of the congestion.”

A company spokesperson also shared some thoughts about the incidents. “Yesterday’s power outage was a widespread event that caused gridlock across San Francisco, with non-functioning traffic signals and transit disruptions. While the failure of the utility infrastructure was significant, we are committed to ensuring our technology adjusts to traffic flow during such events,” the Waymo spokesperson stated, adding that it is “focused on rapidly integrating the lessons learned from this event, and are committed to earning and maintaining the trust of the communities we serve every day.”

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Waymo scrutinized after self-driving taxis cause traffic jams during SF blackout

It’s not farfetched to speculate that it would have been a doomsday scenario for Tesla had FSD behaved this way.

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Credit: @AnnTrades/X

A power outage across San Francisco over the weekend forced numerous Waymo self-driving taxis to stop at darkened intersections and cause traffic blockages in multiple locations across the city. The disruption left riders stranded, frustrated drivers blocked, and city officials stepping in as the Alphabet-owned company temporarily suspended service amid the widespread gridlock.

Needless to say, it would likely have been a doomsday scenario for Tesla had FSD behaved in a similar way, especially if fleets of its robotaxis blocked traffic for numerous drivers. 

Power outage halts Waymo fleet

The outage knocked out electricity for tens of thousands of customers, leaving traffic signals dark across large parts of the city, as noted in a report from the New York Times. Waymo vehicles began stopping at intersections and remained stationary for extended periods, seemingly unable to operate. Tow truck operators worked through the night removing immobilized vehicles, while videos circulated online showing Waymos with hazard lights flashing as traffic backed up around them.

Waymo later confirmed that it had paused its Bay Area ride-hailing service after the San Francisco mayor’s office contacted the company about the congestion its vehicles were contributing to. Service began coming back online shortly after 3:30 p.m. local time, though some users still reported being unable to request rides. Waymo maintained that no injuries or accidents were reported during the outage.

Autonomous cars during emergencies

The incident surprised industry observers since autonomous vehicles are designed to function during signal outages and temporary connectivity losses. Waymo stated that its vehicles treat nonfunctional signals as four-way stops, but “the sheer scale of the outage led to instances where vehicles remained stationary longer than usual to confirm the state of the affected intersections. This contributed to traffic friction during the height of the congestion.” Experts suggested the problem may have been linked to the vehicles’ reliance on remote assistance teams, which help resolve complex situations the cars cannot handle independently.

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“Yesterday’s power outage was a widespread event that caused gridlock across San Francisco, with non-functioning traffic signals and transit disruptions. While the failure of the utility infrastructure was significant, we are committed to ensuring our technology adjusts to traffic flow during such events,” the Waymo spokesperson stated, adding that it is “focused on rapidly integrating the lessons learned from this event, and are committed to earning and maintaining the trust of the communities we serve every day.”

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