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SpaceX Starship booster heads to launch pad for the fifth time
For the fifth time in five months, SpaceX has transported its most advanced Starship booster prototype from the Starbase factory to the launch pad, setting the stage for another round of testing.
Super Heavy Booster 7 (B7) returned to the factory for the fourth time on August 12th after becoming the first prototype of any kind to perform a static fire engine test while installed on SpaceX’s orbital Starship launch mount. In the days prior, the booster completed two back-to-back static fire tests with one of the 20 Raptor engines installed on the rocket, both of which apparently gave SpaceX enough confidence to prepare for the next phase of testing.
That relatively cautious progress only came after SpaceX attempted to test all 33 of the prototype’s Raptors at once during its first engine test. Whether it was the fault of overzealous managers or executives or a genuine oversight is not clear, but the combined behavior of Super Heavy and the orbital launch pad was not properly characterized before testing began. As a result, the cloud of flammable gas the rocket released during its attempted 33-engine ‘spin-prime’ test found an ignition source and violently exploded on July 11th, causing damage throughout Booster 7’s aft engine section that required several weeks of repairs between July 15th and August 6th.
When the Super Heavy rolled to the pad for the fourth time on August 6th, it was missing all 13 center Raptors, leaving only the outer ring of 20 Raptor Boost engines partially installed for the tests that followed. Thankfully, things went much better on the second try and Booster 7 completed two spin-prime tests with a single Raptor engine, followed by two successful static fire tests on August 9th and 11th. The latter test was the longest Starbase static fire ever (by a factor of ~3) and lasted about 20 seconds, allowing SpaceX to test Booster 7’s autogenous pressurization. That system pressurizes Super Heavy’s tanks by turning small quantities of cryogenic liquid propellant into gas, ensuring that its tanks remain stable as they’re rapidly drained of thousands of tons of propellant.
On August 12th, Booster 7 returned to the factory, where workers installed the rocket’s 13 center engines for the second time. Booster 7 headed back to the orbital launch site (OLS) on August 23rd and the pad’s robotic launch tower used a pair of arms to lift the rocket off its transport stand and place it on the launch mount by the end of the day.
In addition to readying Booster 7 for its next phase of static fire testing, teams of SpaceX workers took advantage of the unplanned lull in testing to modify the orbital launch mount. It’s impossible to know what exactly was done without official confirmation, but it’s likely that SpaceX was attempting to quickly fix the shortcoming(s) that allowed the July 11th explosion to happen. Without a fix, it’s unlikely that SpaceX would want to proceed with plans to ignite large numbers of Raptor engines simultaneously – a series of tests that must be completed before Starship can safely attempt its first orbital launch.
It’s unclear what exactly that fix entails, but it could involve a system to constantly flood the engine section with fire-stopping nitrogen gas or potentially take the shape of a system of vents that will connect to every Raptor engine and remove methane gas before it can turn into flammable clouds.
It’s possible that Booster 7 has returned to the launch pad solely for fit checks or some other basic proof-of-concept testing. It’s also possible that the returns signifies that SpaceX is confident in its quick launch mount fix and ready to restart static fire testing.
As Booster 7 prepares for that next phase of testing, SpaceX may also be ready to restart static fire testing with Starship S24, which paused shortly before Super Heavy returned to the factory. SpaceX appears to be modifying the suborbital launch mount and test stand Ship 24 is installed on, which could explain the lack of ship testing since August 11th. SpaceX has 12-hour test windows tentatively scheduled on August 24th and 25th, either of which could be used to test either or both prototypes.
If all goes to plan, Ship 24 and Booster 7 will eventually complete all the qualification testing SpaceX can throw at them and be ready to support Starship’s first orbital launch attempt sometime before the end of 2022.
Tesla launched a new configuration of the Model Y this week, bringing more complexity to its lineup of the vehicle and adding a new, lower entry point for those who require an All-Wheel-Drive car.
However, the broadening of the Model Y lineup in the United States could signal a somewhat uncomfortable reality for Tesla fans and car buyers, who have been vocal about their desire for a larger, full-size SUV.
Tesla has essentially moved in the opposite direction through its closure of the Model X and its continuing expansion of a vehicle that fits the bill for many, but not all.
Tesla brings closure to Model Y moniker with launch of new trim level
While CEO Elon Musk has said that there is the potential for the Model Y L, a longer wheelbase configuration of the vehicle, to enter the U.S. market late this year, it is not a guarantee.
Instead, Tesla has prioritized the need to develop vehicles and trim levels that cater to the future rollout of the Robotaxi ride-hailing service and a fully autonomous future.
But the company could be missing out on a massive opportunity, as SUVs are a widely popular body style in the U.S., especially for families, as the tighter confines of compact SUVs do not support the needs of a large family.
Although there are other companies out there that manufacture this body style, many are interested in sticking with Tesla because of the excellent self-driving platform, expansive charging infrastructure, and software performance the vehicles offer.
Additionally, the lack of variety from an aesthetic and feature standpoint has caused a bit of monotony throughout the Model Y lineup. Although Premium options are available, those three configurations only differ in terms of range and performance, at least for the most part, and the differences are not substantial.
Minor Expansions of the Model Y Fail to Address Family Needs for Space
Offering similar trim levels with slight differences to cater to each consumer’s needs is important. However, these vehicles keep a constant: cargo space and seating capacity.
Larger families need something that would compete with vehicles like the Chevrolet Tahoe, Ford Expedition, or Cadillac Escalade, and while the Model X was its largest offering, that is going away.
Tesla could fix this issue partially with the rollout of the Model Y L in the U.S., but only if it plans to continue offering various Model Y vehicles and expanding on its offerings with that car specifically. There have been hints toward a Cyber-inspired SUV in the past, but those hints do not seem to be a drastic focus of the company, given its autonomy mission.
Model Y Expansion Doesn’t Boost Performance, Value, or Space
You can throw all the different badges, powertrains, and range ratings on the same vehicle, it does not mean it’s going to sell better. The Model Y was already the best-selling vehicle in the world on several occasions. Adding more configurations seems to be milking it.
The true need of people, especially now that the Model X is going away, is going to be space. What vehicle fits the bill of a growing family, or one that has already outgrown the Model Y?
Not Expanding the Lineup with a New Vehicle Could Be a Missed Opportunity
The U.S. is the world’s largest market for three-row SUVs, yet Tesla’s focus on tweaking the existing Model Y ignores this. This could potentially result in the Osborne Effect, as sales of current models without capturing new customers who need more seating and versatility.
Expansions of the current Model Y offerings risk adding production complexity without addressing core demands, and given that the Model Y L is already being produced in China, it seems like it would be a reasonable decision to build a similar line in Texas.
Listening to consumers means introducing either the Model Y L here, or bringing a new, modern design to the lineup in the form of a full-size SUV.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Elon Musk recently reiterated one of the most ambitious forecasts for Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, stating it could become the first real-world example of a Von Neumann machine. He also noted once more that Optimus would be Tesla’s biggest product.
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Optimus as a von Neumann machine
In response to a post on X that pondered on sci-fi timelines becoming real, Musk wrote that “Optimus will be the first Von Neumann machine, capable of building civilization by itself on any viable planet.” In a separate post, Musk wrote that Optimus will be Tesla’s “biggest product ever,” a phrase he has used in the past to describe the humanoid robot’s importance to the electric vehicle maker.
A Von Neumann machine is a class of theoretical self-replicating systems originally proposed in the mid-20th century by the mathematician John von Neumann. In his concept, von Neumann described machines that could travel to other worlds, use local materials to create copies of themselves, and carry out large-scale tasks without outside intervention.
Elon Musk’s broader plans
Considering Musk’s comments, it appears that Optimus would eventually be capable of performing complex work autonomously in environments beyond Earth. If Optimus could achieve such a feat, it could very well unlock humanity’s capability to explore locations beyond Earth. The idea of space exploration becomes more than feasible.
Elon Musk has discussed space-based AI compute, large-scale robotic production, and the role of SpaceX’s Starship in transporting hardware and materials to other planets. While Musk did not detail how Optimus would fit with SpaceX’s exploration activities, his Von Neumann machine comments suggest he is looking at Tesla’s robotics as part of a potential interplanetary ecosystem.
News
Tesla China January wholesale sales rise 9% year-on-year
Tesla reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 China-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association.
Tesla China reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 Giga Shanghai-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). The figure includes both domestic sales and exports from Gigafactory Shanghai.
The total represented a 9.32% increase from January last year but a 28.86% decline from December’s 97,171 units.
China EV market trends
The CPCA estimated that China’s passenger new energy vehicle wholesale volume reached about 900,000 units in January, up 1% year-on-year but down 42% from December. Demand has been pressured by the start-of-year slow season, a 5% additional purchase tax cost, and uncertainty around the transition of vehicle trade-in subsidies, as noted in a report from CNEV Post.
Market leader BYD sold 210,051 NEVs in January, down 30.11% year-on-year and 50.04% month-on-month, as per data released on February 1. Tesla China’s year-over-year growth then is quite interesting, as the company’s vehicles seem to be selling very well despite headwinds in the market.
Tesla China’s strategies
To counter weaker seasonal demand, Tesla China launched a low-interest financing program on January 6, offering up to seven-year terms on select produced vehicles. The move marked the first time an automaker offered financing of that length in the Chinese market.
Several rivals, including Xiaomi, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO, later introduced similar incentives. Tesla China then further increased promotions on January 26 by reinstating insurance subsidies for the Model 3 sedan. The CPCA is expected to release Tesla’s China retail sales and export breakdown later this month.
Tesla Model Y lineup expansion signals an uncomfortable reality for consumers
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
