News
SpaceX’s first high-flying, triple-Raptor Starship is almost finished
SpaceX’s first high-flying, triple-engine Starship prototype is rapidly approaching completion at the same time as the company is preparing for the rocket’s predecessor to lift off on its inaugural test flight.
Known as serial number 5 (SN5), it will be the fifth full-scale Starship prototype completed by SpaceX since November 2019 and the fourth since late-January 2020. Following in the footsteps of Mk1, SN1, SN3, and SN4, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has recently stated that Starship SN5 will be the first prototype to have three Raptor engines and a nosecone installed and could be the first to be outfitted with new and improved aerodynamic control surfaces.
In the meantime, Starship SN4 is perhaps less than 30 hours away from performing a third Raptor static fire test, potentially paving the way for the biggest challenge yet for a full-scale Starship prototype: powered flight. Scheduled no earlier than 9am CDT (14:00 UTC), May 13th, Starship SN4’s next static fire is meant to ensure that a replacement Raptor engine is functioning properly. If successful, the building-sized rocket will effectively be ready to attempt its first launch – also a first for the Starship program overall – pending FAA approval.
As illustrated in the unofficial diagram above, nearly all of the individual sections that will make up Starship SN5 appear to be more or less complete, excluding some ambiguity added by the interchangeable nature of some of the steel rings all Starships are built out of. For the current design and assembly strategy, Starships are comprised of eight separate sections, themselves made up of stacks of 2-4 steel rings. Altogether, excluding the conical nose section, a single Starship requires approximately 20 of those ~1.8m (6 ft) tall steel rings to reach its full height.
Currently, SpaceX has been focused on testing just the tank section of Starship prototypes, representing the vast majority of the technical challenges that must be solved to fully realize the next-generation launch vehicle’s ambitions. Excluding a smaller secondary liquid oxygen tank situated in the tip of Starship nosecones, the nose section is effectively irrelevant – putting the cart before the horse – until Starship tank sections are more of a known quantity.
When that would be the case was entirely up in the air until just the last week or so, when Starship SN4 became the first full-scale prototype to pass a cryogenic proof test, perform a wet dress rehearsal (WDR) with real propellant, complete static fire(s) with a Raptor engine installed, and – finally – pass a more challenging cryogenic pressure test in quick succession. With those milestones passed for the first time ever, SpaceX has effectively proven that it’s solved the what is arguably the most unprecedented aspect of its Starship program: building orbital-class pressure vessels for pennies on the dollar on the South Texas coast.
Of course, doing it once with Starship SN4 is not the same as fully confirming that SpaceX’s extremely exotic South Texas rocket factory is capable of producing repeatable results with future rockets. While incredibly improbable, Starship SN4’s multiple successes could be a fluke. Additionally, as Musk has noted, the goal is to complete two entire Starships every week once the factory is fully optimized. SpaceX has already achieved a monthly production rate for its current line of prototypes, an extremely encouraging sign for the practicality of Musk’s stretch goal.
In the prototype stage, that speed of production has been incredibly useful, enabling SpaceX to move at a pace of launch vehicle development almost unheard of since NASA’s Apollo Program. At the moment, Starship SN4 has passed all tests thrown at it so far and will soon be attempting the riskiest Starship test yet with its inaugural hop attempt. If the ship were to be destroyed, one would traditionally expect a bare minimum of a few months of program delay. Instead, Starship SN5 could be more or less complete even before SN4 receives FAA permission for its first flight, meaning that a replacement will already be ready to roll to the launch pad if or when SN4 is destroyed.
In a best-case scenario, if Starship SN4 continues to pass the tests thrown at it, including one or several hops, SpaceX will instead be entering a new phase indicative of what’s to come: the concurrent testing and operation of a fleet of Starships. A step further, if Starship SN4 succeeds, Starship SN5 appears to be on track to become the first prototype to have a full three Raptor engines and a nosecone installed, as well as the first to attempt a high-altitude (20 km/12 mi) flight test.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk took to his social media platform X on Sunday to remind everyone that the Roadster’s true meaning is not about company growth or adding dollars to shareholders’ pockets. Sometimes, you just do things because you can.
Following the Roadster’s epic unveiling event last Thursday, skeptics and critics of the company or the project itself came out to say that the vehicle is a pointless project because it is not geared toward growing the company, delivering supreme margins for profitability, nor does it contribute to the big picture of Artificial/Super Intelligence.
But that’s just the thing: Roadster is not meant to be some shareholder dream; it’s meant to be a vehicle that people buy just because it is something awesome, unique, and the first of its kind.
Tesla Roadster: Three configs, one can fly, 0-60 in 0.8 seconds
Musk had to remind those who are skeptical about the Roadster’s importance to the company mission that while it is not a major contributor to Tesla’s long-term goals, it is something that is being built just because it can be:
“Optimus and Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla’s value. The only things that will scale to incredible size (K2 and beyond) economically are super intelligence, robots, solar power, and mass to space. And, of course, if you have the first two, the rest will follow. But Roadster is super cool, so we’re doing it anyway.”
Musk has said on many occasions that Optimus would be the project that would make up the vast majority of Tesla’s value in the coming years.
Robotics will be a major focus of Tesla over the coming years, especially as Musk believes Optimus will enable work to be optional for humans and will enable what he calls “High Universal Income.”
Optimus and Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla’s value.
The only things that will scale to incredible size (K2 and beyond) economically are super intelligence, robots, solar power and mass to space.
And, of course, if you have the first two, the rest will follow.
But Roadster is super cool, so we’re doing it anyway.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 18, 2026
Cybercab will be a passive income opportunity for owners, Musk and Tesla have said for a very long time, as a fleet of self-driving vehicles will operate within a ride-hailing Robotaxi service that won’t require a human driver to be present.
Tesla investors are more than enthusiastic about the company’s future projects, at least from a general consensus perspective. However, it is important to note that the Roadster is a fun and cool project that pushes the boundaries of what people thought was possible for an automobile.
What we saw last week was the first true example of a flying car, and despite the backlash about how it might not contribute to Tesla’s grand ambitions, it’s okay to have fun sometimes, too.
Investor's Corner
SpaceX’s biggest earnings test yet lands Tuesday, and Tesla shareholders should be watching
SpaceX reports earnings Tuesday as Wall Street watches AI spending, Starlink growth and Tesla merger
SpaceX reports third quarter results after the market closes Tuesday, with a webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET streamed on X, and Tesla follows a day later. Bloomberg consensus, cited by Pepperstone, calls for revenue of $12.89 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $6.62 billion and adjusted EPS near $0.15. That would be about 65% growth from the second quarter and SpaceX’s first profitable quarter since its IPO. Analysts expect roughly $6.4 billion from AI and $4.9 billion from Starlink, which is projected to reach 14.3 million consumer subscribers. Capital spending is forecast at $19.6 billion, leaving free cash flow near negative $11.6 billion.
The numbers matter because SpaceX has spent months trying to win over a skeptical market. It priced its record IPO at $135, spiked to $225.64, then sank near $105 in early August. Friday’s close of $146.03 sits about 28% below the June high. The Q2 report beat on revenue at $7.8 billion and put Starlink at 12 million subscribers, but $18.4 billion of capex hurt the stock. Since then SpaceX reached orbit on Starship Flight 14 with 26 Starlink V3 satellites, agreed to buy 800 MHz spectrum for about $8 billion as part of its Starlink Mobile push, and signed a fourth compute hosting deal in four months worth roughly $13 billion a year from December. Management is targeting more than 2 gigawatts of compute by year end and a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate. Evercore ISI, which raised its target to $275, said the quarter may be judged more on those targets than the reported figures
All of this sits under the Tesla merger question. Barclays analyst Dan Levy expects an all stock deal in which SpaceX buys Tesla at a premium, using reference values of $2.1 trillion and $1.5 trillion, and said an announcement would need to come by late October or early November to be voted on at Tesla’s December 6 annual meeting. Barclays estimates Musk would hold about 37% of the combined company and 56% of the votes. Musk said in July that combining companies cannot be discussed on an earnings call, but an investor question asking when SpaceX will merge with Tesla is sitting on SpaceX’s Q&A platform, and Teslarati has tracked how the Roadster demo revived the talk.
If a deal happens, Tuesday’s result would effectively set the price Tesla holders would receive. Their shares would convert into SpaceX stock, along with exposure to a company with a heavy investment on AI, while Tesla itself expects 2026 capex above $25 billion. A strong quarter and calmer spending would make that exchange easier to sell. Another round of heavy capex and a falling stock would make it harder.
News
SpaceX’s Gwynne Shotwell just made a quiet gesture toward Tesla
SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell quietly followed Tesla on X, and merger watchers noticed right away.
SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell has started following Tesla’s official account on X, a small change that landed in the middle of a very loud merger conversation. Whole Mars Catalog joked about it on Sunday.
A follow is not an announcement, and neither company has said anything about a deal. What gives the moment weight is the timing. Barclays analyst Dan Levy has told clients that an agreement could come before Tesla’s annual meeting, which must be held by December 6, with SpaceX as the buyer in an all stock deal, as we reported after the Roadster unveiling. Wedbush’s Dan Ives has stuck with a 2027 timeline.
“Shit, I better start following their X account if i’m gonna be helping run the company”
— Whole Mars Catalog (@wholemars) October 18, 2026
Shotwell is the executive most worth watching if the two companies do move closer. When Musk was asked at the All In Summit why Tesla and SpaceX remain separate, Shotwell sat next to him and said SpaceX personnel had already moved into xAI to fill leadership and engineering gaps. The businesses were integrating “faster than I thought,” she said, though “not fully integrated yet.” Her responsibilities have also grown since SpaceX absorbed xAI, and she now oversees operations that include Grok and the company’s AI compute buildout.
The financial links are already there. Tesla’s $2 billion xAI investment turned into a stake of less than one percent in SpaceX, the two share the Terafab chip project in Austin, and Musk exercised his 2018 Tesla options a week after SpaceX began trading, a sequence analysts flagged as giving SpaceX public shares to use in a deal. Musk holds about 20 percent of Tesla and controls 85.1 percent of SpaceX’s voting power, according to our earlier breakdown.
The next test is close at hand. SpaceX reports its second earnings as a public company on Tuesday after the close, and Tesla follows on Wednesday. Musk told analysts in July that “we can’t talk about combining companies and that kind of thing on an earnings call,” so a direct answer is unlikely from either stage. Tesla shareholders can still submit and vote on questions through the Say portal until 4 p.m. EDT on Monday, and the merger is a recurring theme in the queue.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk reminds everyone about Roadster’s true meaning
SpaceX’s biggest earnings test yet lands Tuesday, and Tesla shareholders should be watching
SpaceX’s Gwynne Shotwell just made a quiet gesture toward Tesla
SpaceX reveals how its 1 Million AI satellite network will work and prevent space collisions
Tesla Roadster: Three configs, one can fly, 0-60 in 0.8 seconds
