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SpaceX’s first high-flying, triple-Raptor Starship is almost finished
SpaceX’s first high-flying, triple-engine Starship prototype is rapidly approaching completion at the same time as the company is preparing for the rocket’s predecessor to lift off on its inaugural test flight.
Known as serial number 5 (SN5), it will be the fifth full-scale Starship prototype completed by SpaceX since November 2019 and the fourth since late-January 2020. Following in the footsteps of Mk1, SN1, SN3, and SN4, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has recently stated that Starship SN5 will be the first prototype to have three Raptor engines and a nosecone installed and could be the first to be outfitted with new and improved aerodynamic control surfaces.
In the meantime, Starship SN4 is perhaps less than 30 hours away from performing a third Raptor static fire test, potentially paving the way for the biggest challenge yet for a full-scale Starship prototype: powered flight. Scheduled no earlier than 9am CDT (14:00 UTC), May 13th, Starship SN4’s next static fire is meant to ensure that a replacement Raptor engine is functioning properly. If successful, the building-sized rocket will effectively be ready to attempt its first launch – also a first for the Starship program overall – pending FAA approval.
As illustrated in the unofficial diagram above, nearly all of the individual sections that will make up Starship SN5 appear to be more or less complete, excluding some ambiguity added by the interchangeable nature of some of the steel rings all Starships are built out of. For the current design and assembly strategy, Starships are comprised of eight separate sections, themselves made up of stacks of 2-4 steel rings. Altogether, excluding the conical nose section, a single Starship requires approximately 20 of those ~1.8m (6 ft) tall steel rings to reach its full height.
Currently, SpaceX has been focused on testing just the tank section of Starship prototypes, representing the vast majority of the technical challenges that must be solved to fully realize the next-generation launch vehicle’s ambitions. Excluding a smaller secondary liquid oxygen tank situated in the tip of Starship nosecones, the nose section is effectively irrelevant – putting the cart before the horse – until Starship tank sections are more of a known quantity.
When that would be the case was entirely up in the air until just the last week or so, when Starship SN4 became the first full-scale prototype to pass a cryogenic proof test, perform a wet dress rehearsal (WDR) with real propellant, complete static fire(s) with a Raptor engine installed, and – finally – pass a more challenging cryogenic pressure test in quick succession. With those milestones passed for the first time ever, SpaceX has effectively proven that it’s solved the what is arguably the most unprecedented aspect of its Starship program: building orbital-class pressure vessels for pennies on the dollar on the South Texas coast.
Of course, doing it once with Starship SN4 is not the same as fully confirming that SpaceX’s extremely exotic South Texas rocket factory is capable of producing repeatable results with future rockets. While incredibly improbable, Starship SN4’s multiple successes could be a fluke. Additionally, as Musk has noted, the goal is to complete two entire Starships every week once the factory is fully optimized. SpaceX has already achieved a monthly production rate for its current line of prototypes, an extremely encouraging sign for the practicality of Musk’s stretch goal.
In the prototype stage, that speed of production has been incredibly useful, enabling SpaceX to move at a pace of launch vehicle development almost unheard of since NASA’s Apollo Program. At the moment, Starship SN4 has passed all tests thrown at it so far and will soon be attempting the riskiest Starship test yet with its inaugural hop attempt. If the ship were to be destroyed, one would traditionally expect a bare minimum of a few months of program delay. Instead, Starship SN5 could be more or less complete even before SN4 receives FAA permission for its first flight, meaning that a replacement will already be ready to roll to the launch pad if or when SN4 is destroyed.
In a best-case scenario, if Starship SN4 continues to pass the tests thrown at it, including one or several hops, SpaceX will instead be entering a new phase indicative of what’s to come: the concurrent testing and operation of a fleet of Starships. A step further, if Starship SN4 succeeds, Starship SN5 appears to be on track to become the first prototype to have a full three Raptor engines and a nosecone installed, as well as the first to attempt a high-altitude (20 km/12 mi) flight test.
Tesla released what analysts believe the company will report in terms of deliveries and energy deployments for Q2, but the figures seem to confirm a long-standing theory on the company’s vehicle division.
For years, Tesla was just looked at as a car company. Now that it has established itself as a powerhouse in energy, AI, and tech as a whole, the company is now less hellbent on achieving quarterly growth, on a sequential basis, at least from a major standpoint.
Tesla topped out its annual deliveries in 2023 at 1.81 million, and in the two years since, the company has reported a decrease in deliveries for the entire 12-month term both times.
With Tesla delivering 358,023 cars in Q1, a 6.3 percent increase over Q1 2025, but falling short of Wall Street expectations at 365,000-370,000 units, the narrative around vehicle deliveries and their importance continued to change earlier this year. Some might say it is convenient, but others might say it is the typical evolution of a company that continues to change over time.
For Q2, Tesla’s delivery consensus estimates sit at 406,024 units, analysts believe. They were surveyed from Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Cowen, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, BMP Paribas, Goldman Sachs, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Truist, UBS, Jefferies, JPM, Needham & Co., HSBC, and William Blair.
Credit: Tesla
Tesla is also expected to report deployments of 13.8 GWh this quarter.
The change to Tesla’s overall narrative now leans less on vehicle deliveries and more on its other projects. Most notably, Tesla’s Robotaxi project has taken the priority over most of its other business ventures, and investors and the public are more concerned about the deployment of vehicles into the fleet, the operation of a driverless ride-hailing service, Cybercab production and operation, and expansion into new cities.
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
This big narrative switch happened when Tesla indicated it was looking at making transportation a service by launching a ride-hailing service that will operate using Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite. Once unsupervised operation begins, Robotaxi could be a new way for people to get around, all without a driver in their car.
Instead, they will rely on the billions of miles Tesla has accumulated from its real-world fleet.
It is important to note that Tesla remains significant in the automotive sector, and deliveries must continue as they have for years. Tesla still has a strong automotive business and needs to execute further on all facets to keep its investors happy.
Tesla launched the slightly larger Model Y L in China last year, and it became a hit in no time. The longer wheelbase, larger interior, and slightly more forgiving legroom area in the Model Y L became a sought-after possibility for U.S. buyers, who have been begging the company for a larger SUV.
Now, Tesla needs it more than ever, especially considering the Model X was discontinued alongside its Model S sibling earlier this year. It looks to be more likely than ever, and based on recent reports, it will fall in line with CEO Elon Musk’s prediction that it would arrive in the United States in late 2026.
Recent reports from Forbes and Not a Tesla App both have indicated Tesla plans to bring the Model Y L to the U.S. this year. The reports cite “credible sources,” and an analyst from AutoForecast Solutions named Sam Fiorani stated that the car would enter production later this year.
Fiorani said:
“China, Australia, and India are supplied by the factory in China, which will not supply vehicles to the U.S. Production of the Model Y L is expected to begin in the U.S. in September, which will lead to sales beginning before the end of 2026.”
Production would take place at Gigafactory Texas.
Additionally, a few Model Y L units have been spotted under wraps in the United States, giving more indication that Tesla plans to bring the vehicle to the U.S. When Tesla is close to launching a vehicle in the U.S., it is not uncommon to see these models with the exact car covers that you see below:
Looks like another Tesla Model Y L was spotted in the U.S.! pic.twitter.com/jhsdkcN5Go
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 26, 2026
It makes sense, especially considering Musk hinted the Model Y L would make it to the U.S. in late 2026, but it was up in the air. The CEO said the advent of self-driving might not warrant a larger SUV coming to the U.S. market specifically.
The problem is, consumers do not want to hear that. They love Tesla’s tech, FSD, and other features, but they need more space for growing families. The Model X is gone, and the most anyone can fit in a Tesla right now is seven people in the seven-seat Model Y. That back row is truly only large enough to fit small children comfortably.
Tesla fans have requested a full-size SUV, and the company has made some hints that it could be in the plans.
The Model Y and Model Y L differ noticeably in size, with the Model Y L being a stretched, six-seat variant designed for great interior room. The Standard Model Y measures approximately 4,790mm in length, 1,982 mm in width with the mirrors folded, 1,624mm in height, and 2,890mm in wheel base.
In contrast, the Model Y L extends to be about 4,969–4,976mm long (roughly 179mm or 7 inches longer), stands 1,668mm tall (+44mm), and features a significantly longer 3,040 mm wheelbase (+150mm), while maintaining the same width.
This elongation primarily benefits rear passenger space and enables a 2+2+2 seating layout with captain’s chairs, though it slightly reduces maximum cargo capacity behind the rearmost seats and adds a bit of overall mass and turning radius. The result is a more spacious family hauler that still shares the core footprint and agile character of the original Model Y.
In a major development that will inevitably strengthen Tesla’s dominant position in the American EV market, Polestar has been effectively banned from selling new vehicles in the United States, starting with the 2027 model year.
The U.S. Department of Commerce denied Polestar authorization under the Connected Vehicle Rule, which prohibits vehicles containing certain connected technologies (Cellular, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, etc.) linked to China or Russia due to national security risks, including potential data collection on American drivers.
🚨 A Tesla competitor goes down
Polestar will no longer sell new vehicles in the United States starting with the 2027 model year.
The U.S. Department of Commerce denied the brand authorization under the Connected Vehicle Rule, which restricts the sale of cars with software and… pic.twitter.com/TrwnQeoiES
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 25, 2026
Polestar, which is majority-owned by China’s Geely Holding, could not obtain the required exemption despite producing some models domestically.
Polestar confirmed it will sell off any remaining inventory of the Polestar 3 and Polestar 4 models, while continuing service and warranty support for existing customers. No new models or major refreshes will reach U.S. buyers, and the company is pivoting its growth strategy to Europe, where it already generates the vast majority of its sales.
The outcome removes a direct premium EV competitor that had positioned itself as a stylish, performance-oriented alternative to Tesla’s lineup. The Polestar 2 challenged the Model 3, while the Polestar 3 and 4 targeted segments overlapping with the Model Y and upcoming Tesla offerings. Polestar’s U.S. sales had already been sluggish amid intense competition and slower demand, representing just 6 percent of its global volume in the first quarter of 2026.
While Polestar was not on Tesla’s level in the U.S., it still places a dent in the evergrowing field of Tesla competitors in the country, where it has long dominated EV sales.
Tesla faces none of these hurdles. As a U.S.-founded and U.S.-headquartered company with major manufacturing in Fremont, Austin, and Nevada, Tesla’s vehicles are built with compliant domestic and allied supply chains. Its Full Self-Driving technology, over-the-air software updates, and vertically integrated ecosystem were developed entirely in-house without foreign ownership entanglements that trigger national security reviews, at least in the U.S.
Of course, it did face a similar threat in China a few years back:
Elon Musk responds to reports of Tesla ban among China’s military over security concerns
The Connected Vehicle Rule, first advanced under the prior administration and upheld under the current one, is part of a broader U.S. effort to protect the domestic auto industry and critical technology from Chinese influence. High tariffs on Chinese-made EVs and related restrictions have already reshaped the market. Tesla benefits directly: it avoids these barriers while continuing to lead in U.S. EV sales volume, Supercharger network expansion, and energy storage integration.
By clearing Polestar from the new-vehicle playing field, the policy reduces competitive pressure in the premium and performance EV segments where Tesla has invested billions. American consumers seeking cutting-edge electric vehicles now have one fewer option tied to foreign adversaries — and one clearer path to the market leader that has driven the EV transition from the start.
For Tesla, this is more than regulatory relief. It is a strategic tailwind that reinforces its position as America’s premier EV innovator at a time when domestic manufacturing and technological independence matter most.
Tesla Q2 delivery consensus confirms this long-standing theory
Tesla looks keen to bring larger Model Y L to the U.S.
