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SpaceX delays push Starship flight, two Falcon 9 launches into same three-day period

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Update: SpaceX’s Transporter-1 launch has slipped to January 22nd and a Starship SN9 static fire attempt planned today (January 19th) has been cancelled. Starlink-16 remains scheduled to launch no earlier than 8:02 am EST, January 20th.

A series of recent Starship and Starlink delays have pushed SpaceX’s Starship flight test and two Falcon 9 launches into the same ~25-hour period, potentially setting the stage for a frenetic Wednesday and Thursday.

SpaceX announced a third delay for its Starlink-16 mission late on January 18th, pushing the launch to no earlier than 8:02 am EST (13:02 UTC), Wednesday, January 20th “to allow additional time for pre-launch inspections.” Delayed from the 18th to the 19th “due to unfavorable weather in the recovery area,” Monday’s technical delay means that Starlink-16 is now scheduled to lift off as few as 25 hours before a second Falcon 9 launch is scheduled.

Known as Transporter-1, the mission could launch between 9:24 and 10:24 am EST (14:24-15:24 UTC), Thursday, January 21st and will be SpaceX’s first dedicated Smallsat Rideshare Program launch, the second East Coast polar launch in half a century, and the first polar Starlink launch ever. Meanwhile, though far less certain, Starship prototype SN9 is preparing for a fifth static fire attempt that could – if successful – precede a high-altitude launch attempt by just a day or two.

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According to paperwork known as Temporary Flight Restrictions (TFRs) filed with and approved by the FAA, SpaceX is targeting Starship SN9’s first high-altitude launch attempt no earlier than (NET) January 20th. That schedule is nevertheless highly uncertain and contingent upon a successful triple-Raptor static fire now planned for January 19th.

Three static fires, four hours, zero human intervention. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)

In a matter of days, SpaceX has rapidly removed and replaced two of Starship SN9’s three Raptor engines after completing (with varying degrees of success) an unprecedented trio of static fire tests in about as many hours on January 13th. The replacement engines were more or less fully installed by January 16th.

That complement of new engines adds some level of uncertainty to what has already been a relatively troubled static fire test campaign for SN9, but if the rocket is able to complete a full-duration burn this Tuesday, SpaceX can review the results and Starship SN9’s readiness to quickly determine if a flight test is possible on Wednesday. Already delayed from Monday, it’s safe to say that a successful static fire and launch in ~48 hours is not exactly the most probable outcome.

At the same time, though still posing significant logistical challenges, two orbital Falcon 9 launches and booster landings within ~25 hours is a far more likely proposition. Currently, all but one of SpaceX’s seven main rocket recovery ships are deployed to support back-to-back booster landings and one or two payload fairing recovery attempts. Stay tuned for updates as we close in on all three SpaceX missions.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla crushes Wall Street expectations, beats delivery estimates by over 15 percent

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) beat Wall Street expectations of 406,000 vehicles delivered in Q2 by reporting 480,126 deliveries for the three months ending in June.

Tesla reported it delivered 467,762  Model 3 and Model Y units, while 12,364 Model S, Model X, and Cybertrucks switched hands during the quarter. The Model S and Model X were officially sunset this past quarter and will no longer be part of the company’s Production & Delivery reports moving forward.

The quarter is a pleasant surprise and a good rebound from Q1, when Tesla slightly missed the Wall Street consensus of 365,645 cars by reporting 358,023 deliveries for the first three motnhs of the year.

Energy storage deployments also provided some strength in Tesla’s delivery report, hitting 13.5 GWh for Q2. This is a particular division of Tesla’s business that has been overwhelmingly robust over the past few years, truly being a strong point of the company’s overall model.

For the year, Tesla analysts still predict deliveries to trend in the 1.69 million unit region, a modest 3 to 5 percent increase from the 1.64 million cars the company delivered last year. Tesla will likely return to more sequential and noticeable year-over-year growth as the Cybercab project starts to ramp up considerably in the next few years.

Tesla has some other potential catalysts to spur vehicle deliveries, too. Not only is it expecting Cybercab to truly start making a change in the next few years, but other vehicles could be entering the company’s lineup.

Tesla sends production Cybercab with no steering wheel, pedals to on-road testing

The slightly longer Model Y L has been a highly speculated release candidate in the U.S. It has already done incredibly well in China, and U.S. buyers have been wanting slightly more interior space than the Model Y. Now that the Model X is gone, it is more needed than ever.

Q2 highlights a pretty stable automotive division within Tesla, and no true concerns arise from these figures, especially considering it managed to beat expectations convincingly.

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Elon Musk

Tesla Optimus project fires up as Musk sees production line progress

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Credit: Elon Musk | X

Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted a photo of himself standing with the Optimus production team inside Tesla’s Fremont factory, arms crossed amid workers in hard hats and safety vests. The image captures a pivotal industrial shift: the same facility space once dedicated to building Tesla’s flagship Model S sedan and Model X SUV is now home to the company’s humanoid robot manufacturing line.

Tesla’s Fremont Factory, acquired in 2010 from the former NUMMI joint venture between Toyota and GM, has been the company’s original U.S. manufacturing hub since Model S production began in 2012.

The Model X followed soon thereafter. These premium vehicles offered lower annual volumes, recently around 30,000 combined, compared to the high-volume Model 3 and Model Y lines that continue around the site. Over their combined run, the S and X accounted for roughly 610,000 units.

In late January 2026, during Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk announced the end of Model S and Model X production in Q2 2026. The final vehicles rolled off the line in early May. Rather than retooling for another vehicle, Tesla chose to convert the dedicated S/X assembly area into a dedicated Optimus Gen 3 production line.

Model 3 and Y manufacturing remains unaffected. Tesla’s official Fremont Factory page now lists Optimus alongside the 3 and Y as core products.

The conversion was executed with remarkable speed. After production stopped, crews dismantled the existing vehicle line and installed entirely new modular equipment—including lines sourced from Germany and dozens of sub-lines for actuators, batteries, and other components—in roughly four months.

Musk described the timeline as “insanely fast,” noting it would be unprecedented for any other manufacturer. Initial Optimus output is expected to ramp slowly due to the robot’s roughly 10,000 unique parts and the brand-new production processes involved. The Fremont line targets an eventual capacity of 1 million Optimus units per year.

Tesla isn’t joking about building Optimus at an industrial scale: Here we go

Optimus Development Timeline

  • August 19, 2021: Optimus (then called Tesla Bot) formally announced at Tesla’s first AI Day. A concept video showed a person in a suit demonstrating the vision for a general-purpose humanoid capable of dangerous, repetitive, or boring tasks using the same AI architecture as Full Self-Driving.
  • 2022: Early prototypes displayed. At the second AI Day in September, semi-functional units demonstrated walking across a stage and basic arm movements
  • 2023: September videos showed improved capabilities, including sorting colored blocks, precise limb awareness, and holding a Yoda pose.
  • 2024-early 2025: Factory integration videos showed Optimus navigating workspaces and handling objects like battery cells.
  • January 2026: Gen 3 mass-production activities began at Fremont, with reports of over 1,000 Gen 3 units already operating inside the factory for real-world learning and AI training
  • April 2026: Musk confirms Optimus production on converted Fremont line would begin in late July or August 2026. The Gen 3 reveal, originally eyed for Q1, was pushed closer to production start. A second, much larger Optimus factory at Giga Texas is under construction, with volume production targeted for Summer 2027 and long-term capacity of 10 million units annually
  • July 1, 2026: Musk’s on-site visit and team photo confirm the Optimus line is operational and the transition is actively progressing

Tesla positions Optimus as potentially its largest project ever, leveraging vertical integration, AI expertise, and car-like manufacturing know-how to scale humanoid robots first for its own factories and later for broader industrial and consumer use.

The Fremont conversion serves as a critical proving ground for this ambitious new chapter in Tesla’s already-rich history.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’

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Credit: MarcoRP | X

Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.

In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.

In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:

“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”

This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.

The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.

The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building

Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.

The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.

This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.

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