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(Update: Sunday) SpaceX’s high-altitude Starship launch debut slips to Monday
Update #2: Per new Temporary Flight Restrictions, there’s now a chance that SpaceX has rescheduled Starship’s (now slightly less) high-altitude launch debut on Sunday afternoon, December 6th.
As always with experimental testing, uncertainty remains. Stay tuned for updates as we close in on Starship SN8’s 12.5-kilometer (~7.8 mi) launch debut.
Update: SpaceX’s high-altitude Starship launch debut appears to have slipped to no earlier than (NET) Monday morning, December 7th, and been reduced from 15 km to 12.5 km.
FAA-approved flight restrictions filed on December 2nd were retracted on December 3rd for unknown reasons, ultimately giving SpaceX several more days to prepare Starship SN8 for an ambitious high-altitude launch, coast, freefall, and landing attempt.
Meanwhile, SpaceX has also lowered Starship SN8’s apogee target to 12.5 km (7.8 mi) from 15 km, itself a reduction from 20 km made earlier this year. Why is entirely unclear but it’s likely that the company is in active discussion (and probably arguments) with the FAA, perhaps requiring a compromise to ensure regulatory approval.
It remains to be seen if SpaceX will perform any additional testing over the weekend or if the company will attempt to schedule Starship SN8’s launch debut on Saturday or Sunday. Stay tuned for updates and Elon Musk’s promised SpaceX webcast.
SpaceX has received FAA approval to attempt Starship’s high-altitude launch debut as early as Friday according to a Temporary Flight Restriction (TFR) filed on December 2nd.
SpaceX’s first high-altitude Starship TFR revealed that the crucial flight test is now scheduled sometime between 8 am and 5 pm CST (14:00-23:00 UTC) on Friday, December 4th, with identical backup windows available (and cleared with the FAA) on Saturday and Sunday. Originally scheduled as early as November 30th, the delays are less than surprising given the complexity and unprecedented nature of the flight test facing SpaceX.
Starship serial/ship number 8 (SN8) – the first functional full-height prototype – is tasked with launching from Boca Chica, Texas to an apogee of 15 kilometers (~9.5 miles) and dropping back to Earth to test an unproven approach to rocket recovery.
Often referred to as a bellyflop or skydiver-style attitude, Starship SN8 will attempt to freefall belly-down back to earth, using four large flaps to maintain a stable approach much like skydivers use their arms and legs to control heading and speed. When landing on planets or moons with relatively thick atmospheres, a controlled freefall could save Starship a huge amount of structural mass (no need for wings or actual airfoils) and propellant – a major benefit for what aims to be the largest reusable orbital spacecraft ever built.
Powered by three Raptor engines capable of producing up to 600 metric tons (1.3 million lbf) of thrust at full throttle, SN8’s launch debut will mark Starship’s first multiengine flight – a major milestone for any rocket prototype. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk also recently noted that Starship SN8’s propellant tanks will only be “slightly filled” for its 15 km launch debut, potentially resulting in an extremely healthy thrust to weight ratio at liftoff.
Based on several unofficial estimates, Starship SN8 is also likely to break the sound barrier on ascent, potentially putting the prototype through conditions similar to what an actual orbital launch might see at Max Q (the point of maximum aerodynamic pressure). Further adding to the daunting list of ‘firsts’, SN8’s 15 km debut will be the first Starship hop or flight with a nosecone, making it the first full-scale structural test of a nose section and the methods used to attach it to Starship’s tank section. It’s hard to exaggerate the number of things that could go wrong and the number of ways Starship SN8 could fail during its first flight.
In the interim, SpaceX has taken Starship’s launch delay as an opportunity to perform some kind of additional testing on the evening of December 2nd, involving some kind of cryogenic proof test (using liquid nitrogen) or wet dress rehearsal (WDR; using real liquid methane and oxygen). While there were initial signs that SpaceX would put SN8 through one or several more Raptor static fires before clearing the rocket for flight, it appears that those plans were cancelled earlier this week.
Less testing amplifies the risk that Starship SN8 will fail after liftoff, the probability of which Musk has pegged at ~67%. Regardless, SN8’s launch debut is bound to be spectacular and Starships SN9 and SN10 are nearly ready to take over wherever SN8 leaves off.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
